Riding the South Sea bubble

This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare's Bank, a fledgling West End London banker, knew that a bubble was in progress and nonetheless invested in the stock; it was profitable to "ride the bubble." Using a unique dataset on daily trades, we show that this sophisticated investor was not constrained by institutional factors such as restrictions on short sales or agency problems. Instead, this study demonstrates that predictable investor sentiment can prevent attacks on a bubble; rational investors may only attack when some coordinating event promotes joint action.

Evolutionary rates of Jurassic ammonites in relation to sea-level fluctuations

An analysis is presented of the diversity and faunal turnover of Jurassic ammonites related to transgressive /regressive events. The data set contained 400 genera and 1548 species belonging to 67 ammonite zones covering the entire Jurassic System. These data were used in the construction of faunal turnover curves and ammonite diversities, that correlate with sea-level fluctuation curves. Twenty-four events of ammonite faunal turnover are analyzed throughout the Jurassic. The most important took place at the Sinemurian-Carixian boundary, latest Carixian-Middle Domerian, Domerian-Toarcian boundary, latest Middle Toarcian-Late Toarcian, Toarcian-Aalenian boundary, latest Aalenian-earliest Bajocian, latest Early Bajocian-earliest Late Bojocian, Early Bathonian-Middle Bathonian boundary, latest Middle Bathonian-earliest Late Bathonian, latest Bathonian-Early Callovian, earliest Early Oxfordian-Middle Oxfordian, earliest Late Oxfordian-latest Oxfordian, latest Early Kimmeridgian, Late Kimmeridgian, middle Early Tithonian and Early Tithonian-Late Tithonian boundary. More than 75 percent of these turnovers correlate with regressive-transgressive cycles in the Exxon, and /or Hallam's sea-level curves. Inmost cases the extinction events coincide with regressive intervals, whereas origination and radiation events are related to transgressive cycles. The turnovers frequently coincide with major or minor discontinuities in the Subbetic basin (Betic Cordillera).

Nutritional ecology of blowflies (Diptera, Calliphoridae): estimates of critical larval weight for pupation on two different

Under natural environmental conditions, blowflies utilize discrete and ephemeral feeding resources such as decaying carcasses. Competition for food on such feeding substrates is usually very severe, and only the individuals that are capable of attaining the critical larval weight for pupation will be able to survive. This critical weight is hitherto unknown for several blowfly species; therefore, the current work is aimed at obtaining such a critical value for four blowfly species of the genera Chrysomya and Lucilia, deploying two types of feeding substrate, namely, artificial diet and macerated bovine meat. On the whole, the critical weights ranged from 30 to 35 mg. The lowest larval weight which permitted pupation was 30.0 mg for Chrysomya megacephala reared on macerated bovine meat. This species was also the best adapted to pupation at low larval weights in relation to the maximum larval weight for males. Regarding the pupation of females, the best-adapted individual was a C. albiceps specimen exhibiting a critical weight that was equal to 39.20 % of the maximum value obtained. Concerning all the species and diet types, the female individuals exhibited the lowest critical weights that produced viable pupae, probably representing an evolutionary strategy that favoured the survival of females, responsible for the egg formation, contributing to the establishment of future generations. Regarding the loss (in percentage) of adult biomass in relation to the third instar larvae, the females of C. megacephala lost less weight than males in both feeding substrates. On the other hand, such a loss of weight occurred in males of C. albiceps and L. cuprina.

Can larval lacewings Chrysoperla externa (Hagen): (Neuroptera, Chrysopidae) be reared on pollen?

The aim of this study was to verify the viability of exclusive use of elephant grass pollen, Pennisetum purpureum (Schum), to feed larvae of the lacewing Chrysoperla externa (Hagen, 1861). The insects were kept at 24ºC and the duration and survival rate of each instar and the larval and pupal phases were recorded. The diet provided complete development of the larvae. The average duration of the first and second instars was the same (6.9 days), while the third instar lasted an average of 10.0 days and the pupal phase 13.2 days. The average survival of the larvae was above 80% for the first, second and third instars, and 70.0% and 33.3% for the larval and pupal phase, respectively. These results indicate that the exclusive use of elephant grass pollen can provide complete development of the immature stages of this predator.

Monitoreo larval y captación de semilla de la Concha de Abanico (Argopecten purpuratus) en la Bahía Paracas, Perú, durante 1984-85

Entre setiembre de 1984 y febrero de 1985 se determinó las concentraciones de larvas en 3 estaciones en la Bahía de Paracas. Simultáneamente se registró la temperatura superficial del agua, se calculó el índice gonadal de la Concha de Abanico y se captó semillas.

Bionomic data and larval density of Scarabaeidae (Pleurosticti) in sugarcane in the central region of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Bionomic data and larval density of Scarabaeidae (Pleurosticti) in sugarcane in the central region of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Phytophagous larvae of Scarabaeidae cause damage to diverse crops. Information on these pests is scarce; therefore, the objective of this study was to determine biological aspects and larval density of species occurring in an area of sugarcane. The studies were developed in Sidrolândia from April 2009 to March 2010. Scarab beetle larvae were collected in sugarcane roots every fifteen days, taken to the laboratory and reared to obtain the adults and determine biological parameters. A total of 2,656 larvae were collected, being 162 Liogenys fuscus, 120 Cyclocephala verticalis, 37 Cyclocephala forsteri, and 2337 Anomonyx sp. In January, 53.65 larvae m-2 were obtained, and the most abundant species was Anomonyx sp, representing 87.99% of the total larvae collected. From November to March, the greatest densities of Anomonyx were observed in the field. The adults of this species occurred from May to September, and egg laying from September to November. Eggs measured 1.1 x 1.7 mm, and incubation period last 15.4 days. First instar larvae were observed mainly in October; second instar larvae from November to April; and third instar from January to July. Pupae were observed from May to August. The most abundant scarab beetle, Anomonyx sp. in roots of sugarcane presents one generation per year in Sidrolândia, MS.

Description of the third larval instar and pupa of Geniates barbatus Kirby (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae, Rutelinae)

Description of the third larval instar and pupa of Geniates barbatus Kirby (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae, Rutelinae). The last larval instar and pupa of the Neotropical Geniatini Geniates barbatus Kirby, 1819 are described and illustrated. Biological notes and a key to the third instar larvae of Neotropical Rutelinae are also provided.

New method for rearing Spodoptera frugiperda in laboratory shows that larval cannibalism is not obligatory

New method for rearing Spodoptera frugiperda in laboratory shows that larval cannibalism is not obligatory. Here we show, for the first time, that larvae of the fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae), can be successfully reared in a cohort-based manner with virtually no cannibalism. FAW larvae were reared since the second instar to pupation in rectangular plastic containers containing 40 individuals with a surprisingly ca. 90% larval survivorship. Adult females from the cohort-based method showed fecundity similar to that already reported on literature for larvae reared individually, and fertility higher than 99%, with the advantage of combining economy of time, space and material resources. These findings suggest that the factors affecting cannibalism of FAW larvae in laboratory rearings need to be reevaluated, whilst the new technique also show potential to increase the efficiency of both small and mass FAW rearings.

Larval development of Physocephala (Diptera, Conopidae) in the bumble bee Bombus morio (Hymenoptera, Apidae)

Larval development of Physocephala (Diptera, Conopidae) in the bumble bee Bombus morio (Hymenoptera, Apidae). In the summer of 2012, a high incidence of conopid larvae was observed in a sample of female B. morio collected in remaining fragments of semidecidual forest and Cerrado, in the municipality of Sorocaba, state of São Paulo, Brazil. The larval development of conopid flies was studied, beginning at the larval instars (LO to L3) and PUP, until the emergence of the imago under laboratory conditions and inside the host. At the first instar, or LO, the microtype larvae measured less than 1 mm in length. During the transition from L1 to L3, the larvae grew in length. At L3, the larvae doubled their length (4 mm) and then started to develop both in length and width, reaching the PUP stage with 10 mm in length and 7 mm in width. The main characteristic that differentiates L3 from the early instars is the larger body size and the beginning of posterior spiracle development. The development from PUP to puparium took less than 24h. The bees died ten days after the fly oviposition, or just before full PUP development. The early development stages (egg-LO to L1) were critical for larva survival. The pupa was visible between the intersegmental sternites and, 32 days after pupation, a female imago of Physocephala sp. emerged from one bee. The puparium and the fly measured approximately 10 mm in length. In a single day of collection, up to 45% of the bumble bees collected were parasitized by conopid flies.

Larval development of Spodoptera eridania (Cramer) fed on leaves of Bt maize expressing Cry1F and Cry1F + Cry1A.105 + Cry2Ab2 proteins and its non-Bt isoline

This study aimed to evaluate, in controlled laboratory conditions (temperature of 25±2 °C, relative humidity of 60±10%, and 14/10 h L/D photoperiod), the larval development of Spodoptera eridania (Cramer, 1784) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) fed with leaves of Bt maize expressing Cry1F and Cry1F + Cry1A.105 + Cry2Ab2 insecticide proteins and its non-Btisoline. Maize leaves triggered 100% of mortality on S. eridania larvae independently of being Bt or non-Bt plants. However, it was observed that in overall Bt maize (expressing a single or pyramided protein) slightly affects the larval development of S. eridania, even under reduced leaf consumption. Therefore, these results showed that Cry1F and Cry1F + Cry1A.105 + Cry2Ab2 can affect the larval development of S. eridania, although it is not a target pest of this plant; however, more research is needed to better understand this evidence. Finally, this study confirms that non-Bt maize leaves are unsuitable food source to S. eridania larvae, suggesting that they are not a potential pest in maize fields.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of drosophilid larval assemblages associated to fruits

The study of organisms and their resources is critical to further understanding population dynamics in space and time. Although drosophilids have been widely used as biological models, their relationship with breeding and feeding sites has received little attention. Here, we investigate drosophilids breeding in fruits in the Brazilian Savanna, in two contrasting vegetation types, throughout 16 months. Specifically, larval assemblages were compared between savannas and forests, as well as between rainy and dry seasons. The relationships between resource availability and drosophilid abundance and richness were also tested. The community (4,022 drosophilids of 23 species and 2,496 fruits of 57 plant taxa) varied widely in space and time. Drosophilid assemblages experienced a strong bottleneck during the dry season, decreasing to only 0.5% of the abundance of the rainy season. Additionally, savannas displayed lower richness and higher abundance than the forests, and were dominated by exotic species. Both differences in larval assemblages throughout the year and between savannas and gallery forests are consistent with those previously seen in adults. Although the causes of this dynamic are clearly multifactorial, resource availability (richness and abundance of rotten fruits) was a good predictor of the fly assemblage structure.

Recreating the South Sea bubble: Lessons from an experiment in financial history

Major bubble episodes are rare events. In this paper, we examine what factors might cause some asset price bubbles to become very large. We recreate, in a laboratory setting, some of the specific institutional features investors in the South Sea Company faced in 1720. Several factors have been proposed as potentially contributing to one of the greatest periods of asset overvaluation in history: an intricate debt-for-equity swap, deferred payment for these shares, and the possibility of default on the deferred payments. We consider which aspect might have had the most impact in creating the South Sea bubble. The results of the experiment suggest that the company?s attempt to exchange its shares for government debt was the single biggest contributor to the stock price explosion, because of the manner in which the swap affected fundamental value. Issuing new shares with only partial payments required, in conjunction with the debt-equity swap, also had a significant effect on the size of the bubble. Limited contract enforcement, on the other hand, does not appear to have contributed significantly.

Substance P-like-immunoreactive sensory neurons in dorsal root ganglia of the chick embryo: ontogenesis and influence of peripheral targets.

The expression of substance P (SP) was studied in sensory neurons of developing chick lumbosacral dorsal root ganglia (DRG) by using a mixture of periodic acid, lysine and paraformaldehyde as fixative and a monoclonal antibody for SP-like immunostaining. The first SP-like-immunoreactive DRG cells appeared first at E5, then rapidly increased in number to reach a peak (88% of ganglion cells) at E8, and finally declined (59% at E12, 51% after hatching). The fall of the SP-like-positive DRG cells resulted from two concomitant events affecting a subset of small B-neurons: a loss of neuronal SP-like immunoreactivity and cell death. After one hindlimb resection at an early (E6) or late (E12) stage of development (that is before or after establishment of peripheral connections), the DRG were examined 6 days later. In both cases, a drastic neuronal death occurred in the ispilateral DRG. However, the resection at E6 did not change the percentage of SP-like-positive neurons, while the resection at E12 severely reduced the proportion of SP-like-immunoreactive DRG cells (25%). In conclusion, connections established between DRG and peripheral target tissues not only promote the survival of sensory neurons, but also control the maintenance of SP-like-expression. Factors issued from innervated targets such as NGF would support the survival of SP-expressing DRG cells and enhance their SP content while other factors present in skeletal muscle or skin would hinder SP expression and therefore lower SP levels in a subset of primary sensory neurons.

Additive genetic effects on embryo viability in a whitefish (Salmonidae) influenced by the water mould Saprolegnia ferax

Animals and plants are associated with symbiotic microbes whose roles range from mutualism to commensalism to parasitism. These roles may not only be taxon-specific but also dependent on environmental conditions and host factors. To experimentally test these possibilities, we drew a random sample of adult whitefish from a natural population, bred them in vitro in a full-factorial design in order to separate additive genetic from maternal environmental effects on offspring, and tested the performance of the resulting embryos under different environmental conditions. Enhancing the growth of symbiotic microbes with supplemental nutrients released cryptic additive genetic variance for viability in the fish host. These effects vanished with the concurrent addition of the water mould Saprolegnia ferax. Our findings demonstrate that the heritability of host fitness is environment-specific and critically depends on the interaction between symbiotic microbes.

Statistical learning theory for geospatial data. Case study: Aral sea

In recent years there has been an explosive growth in the development of adaptive and data driven methods. One of the efficient and data-driven approaches is based on statistical learning theory (Vapnik 1998). The theory is based on Structural Risk Minimisation (SRM) principle and has a solid statistical background. When applying SRM we are trying not only to reduce training error ? to fit the available data with a model, but also to reduce the complexity of the model and to reduce generalisation error. Many nonlinear learning procedures recently developed in neural networks and statistics can be understood and interpreted in terms of the structural risk minimisation inductive principle. A recent methodology based on SRM is called Support Vector Machines (SVM). At present SLT is still under intensive development and SVM find new areas of application (www.kernel-machines.org). SVM develop robust and non linear data models with excellent generalisation abilities that is very important both for monitoring and forecasting. SVM are extremely good when input space is high dimensional and training data set i not big enough to develop corresponding nonlinear model. Moreover, SVM use only support vectors to derive decision boundaries. It opens a way to sampling optimization, estimation of noise in data, quantification of data redundancy etc. Presentation of SVM for spatially distributed data is given in (Kanevski and Maignan 2004).