An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

Mapa de vulnerabilidade à erosão da região do Alto Rio Pardo - Pardinho (SP)

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Procura de sinal de dimensões extras universais em colisões próton-antipróton

Pós-graduação em Física - IFT

Métodos para avaliação do temperamento de bovinos: estimação de parâmetros genéticos e relações com o desempenho

Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV

Avaliação geoambiental em áreas de cerrado no triângulo mineiro para implantação de pequenos reservatórios superficiais de água: aplicação na folha de Tupaciguara, MG (1:100.000)

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Modelagem espacial dinâmica aplicada ao estudo de movimentos de massa em uma região da serra do mar paulista, na escala de 1:10.000

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Associação entre marcadores da resposta inflamatória e a imunopatogênese de agentes infecciosos de natureza viral (Vírus da dengue, HTLV-1 e HTLV-2) e bacteriana (Chlamydia trachomatis e Chlamydia pneumoniae)

A base genética das doenças é frequentemente estudada a partir dos polimorfismos dos genes de citocinas. O presente estudo investigou marcadores da resposta inflamatória associados a infecções virais e bacterianas que possam influenciar o curso da infecção. Foram medidos os níveis séricos (por ensaio imunoenzimático) e os polimorfismos de TNF-α (-308), TNF-β (+252), IFN-γ (+874) e da proteína C reativa, por meio de PCR e RFLP ou PCR alelo específico, em grupos de pessoas infectadas pelo vírus da dengue (n=80), com doença febril, não infectados (100), um grupo de infectados pelo HTLV (30 sintomáticos e 47 assintomáticos), um grupo com doença coronariana (58 com sororreatividade para Chlamydia e 31 com sorologia negativa) e um grupo controle (99 pessoas com sorologia negativa para dengue, HTLV e Chlamydia). Nenhum grupo mostrou associação com informações demográficas. O Vírus da dengue 3 (66,2%) e o HTLV-1 (90% em sintomáticos e 76,6% em assintomáticos) foram os agentes mais frequentes dentre os grupos respectivos. A maioria com doença coronariana (65,1%) apresentou anticorpos para Chlamydia (39,6% para C. trachomatis e C. pneumoniae, 58,6% apenas para C. trachomatis e 1,7% somente para C. pneumoniae). Foram significantes as diferenças encontradas entre: (i) os níveis séricos de TNF-β, IFN-γ e PrtCR dos grupos dengue positivo e dengue negativo com o grupo controle (p< 0,01); (ii) os níveis séricos de TNF-α, TNF-β, e IFN-γ dos grupos de HTLV (incluindo os tipos) e grupo controle; (iii) os níveis séricos de TNF-α, TNF-β, IFN-γ e PrtCR entre os pacientes com doença coronariana e sorologia positiva para Chlamydia e o grupo controle; (iv) a presença de anticorpos para C. trachomatis e C. pneumoniae e o grupo controle na comparação com a TNF-β, IFN-γ e PrtCR. As distribuições de frequências genotípicas foram estatisticamente significantes para os polimorfismos: (i) dos genes TNF-α (p=0,0494) e IFN-γ (p= 0,0008), entre os grupos dengue positivo, dengue negativo e controle e para o IFN-γ (p= 0,0007) entre os grupos DEN 1, DEN 2 e DEN 3 e o controle; (ii) do gene IFN-γ (p= 0,0023) nos grupos de pacientes com doença coronariana e sorologia positiva para C. trachomatis e C. pneumoniae, assim como nos monoreativos na comparação entre a positividade para C. trachomatis e o grupo controle.

Avaliação dos marcadores TGF-β1 e TGF-βII em carcinomas mamários localmente avançados e sua associação com fatores clínico-patológicos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estudo da obtenção de biocombustíveis a partir da rota tecnológica de craqueamento utilizando carbonato de sódio e lama vermelha como catalisadores

Neste trabalho foi estudado o processo de destilação do produto líquido orgânico, obtido no craqueamento catalítico do óleo de palma (Elaeis guineensis, Jacq) bruto em escala piloto, empregando os catalisadores carbonato de sódio (Na₂CO₃) e a lama vermelha, variando o percentual de catalisador em 10% m/m e 15% m/m em relação à matéria prima utilizada, sendo fixada uma temperatura operacional de 450ºC, visando obter frações de biocombustíveis (bio-gasolina, bio-querosene e bio-óleo) semelhantes aos combustíveis derivados do petróleo. Os catalisadores foram submetidos a um pré-tratamento de desidratação durante 2 horas em uma estufa à 300ºC, posteriormente foram realizadas as análises de DRX, IR e TG. Quanto à matéria prima, foram realizadas análises físico-químicas, visando à caracterização do óleo de palma. Os produtos líquidos orgânicos (PLOs) obtidos foram submetidos a operações unitárias de separação, decantação e filtração simples em escala de bancada, para posteriormente serem realizadas análises físico-químicas e composicionais. Os PLOs foram destilados em uma coluna Vigreux de seis (06) estágios, e as frações condensadas foram coletadas de acordo com as faixas de destilação da gasolina (60ºC - 190ºC), querosene (190ºC - 235ºC) e diesel (235°C - 370ºC), para posteriormente serem caracterizadas. Verificou-se uma melhor eficiência para o catalisador carbonato de sódio a 15% m/m quanto a redução do índice de acidez, cerca de 1,7 mgKOH/g, assim como uma conversão mássica de 97% do óleo em PLO, notou-se também que, ao aumentar a quantidade de catalisador, isto favoreceu a obtenção de um produto final com uma melhor qualidade. A lama vermelha por outro lado, apresentou rendimentos de até 64% m/m e produtos com baixa acidez cerca de 62,90 mgKOH/g, comparando este resultado com dados encontrados na literatura. A partir dos resultados finais, verificou-se a eficiência dos catalisadores, no qual o catalisador carbonato de sódio forneceu produtos com baixa acidez e com boas características para uso como combustível.

Aspectos bioecológicos de Angiopolybia pallens (Lepeletier, 1836) (Hymenoptera-Vespidae)

Pós-graduação em Ciências Biológicas (Zoologia) - IBRC

Measurement of the p(p)over-bar -> W plus b plus X production cross section at root s=1.96 TeV D0 Collaboration

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

In vivo embryo production in cows superovulated 1 or 2 days after ovum pick-up

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effect of follicle age on conception rate in beef heifers

The objective of this study was to determine the effect of age of the ovulatory follicle on fertility in beef heifers. Ovulation was synchronized with the 5 d CO-Synch + controlled intravaginal drug release (CIDR) program in heifers in Montana (MT; n = 162, Hereford and Angus Crossbred) and Ohio (OH; n = 170, Angus Crossbred). All heifers received estradiol benzoate (EB; 1 mg/500 kg BW, [i.m.]) 6 d after the final GnRH of the synchronization program to induce follicular atresia and emergence of a new follicular wave (NFW) followed by prostaglandin F2 alpha (PGF(2 alpha); 25 mg, i.m.) administration either 5 d (young follicle [YF]; n = 158) or 9 d (mature follicle [MF]; n = 174) after EB. Estrous detection was performed for 5 d after PGF(2 alpha) with AI approximately 12 h after onset of estrus. Ovarian ultrasonography (MT location only) was performed in YF and MF at EB, 5 d after EB, PGF(2 alpha), and AI. Heifers in MT (n = 20) and OH (n = 18) that were not presynchronized or did not initiate a NFW were excluded from further analyses, resulting in 142 and 152 heifers in MT and OH, respectively. Heifers from the MF treatment in MT that initiated a second NFW after EB but before PGF(2 alpha) (MF2; n = 14) were excluded from the primary analysis. In the secondary analysis, the MF2 group was compared to MF and YF treatments in MT. Estrous response was similar (90%; 252/280) between treatments and locations. Proestrus interval (from PGF(2 alpha) to estrus) and age of the ovulatory follicle at AI were similar for MF heifers between locations (54.6 +/- 1.7 h and 8.3 +/- 0.07 h) but were greater (P < 0.01) for YF heifers in OH (78.5 +/- 1.4 h and 5.3 +/- 0.06 h) than MT (67.4 +/- 1.6 h and 4.8 +/- 0.06 h; treatment x location, P < 0.01). However, conception rate did not differ for MF (63.8%; 74/116) and YF (67.0%; 91/136) treatments. In the MT heifers, follicle size and follicle age atAI in the YF treatment (10.4 +/- 0.15 mm and 4.8 +/- 0.06 d, respectively) was less (P < 0.01) than in the MF treatment (11.0 +/- 0.18 mm and 8.3 +/- 0.11 d, respectively), but conception rate to AI did not differ between treatments in MT. In the MF2 group proestrus interval was greater (P < 0.01); hence, diameter of the ovulatory follicle and age were similar to that for the YF treatment. Conception rate to AI did not differ between MF2, MF, and YF (61.5, 63.3, and 64.7%, respectively) in MT. In conclusion, manipulation of age of the nonpersistent ovulatory follicle at spontaneous ovulation did not influence conception rate.

Evaluation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B43 product over an inland area in Brazil and the effects of satellite boost on rainfall estimates

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Both alpha(1)- and alpha(2)-adrenoceptors in the Insular Cortex Are Involved in the Cardiovascular Responses to Acute Restraint Stress in Rats

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)