A regionally informed abundance index for supporting integrative analyses across butterfly monitoring schemes

1. The rapid expansion of systematic monitoring schemes necessitates robust methods to reliably assess species' status and trends. Insect monitoring poses a challenge where there are strong seasonal patterns, requiring repeated counts to reliably assess abundance. Butterfly monitoring schemes (BMSs) operate in an increasing number of countries with broadly the same methodology, yet they differ in their observation frequency and in the methods used to compute annual abundance indices. 2. Using simulated and observed data, we performed an extensive comparison of two approaches used to derive abundance indices from count data collected via BMS, under a range of sampling frequencies. Linear interpolation is most commonly used to estimate abundance indices from seasonal count series. A second method, hereafter the regional generalized additive model (GAM), fits a GAM to repeated counts within sites across a climatic region. For the two methods, we estimated bias in abundance indices and the statistical power for detecting trends, given different proportions of missing counts. We also compared the accuracy of trend estimates using systematically degraded observed counts of the Gatekeeper Pyronia tithonus (Linnaeus 1767). 3. The regional GAM method generally outperforms the linear interpolation method. When the proportion of missing counts increased beyond 50%, indices derived via the linear interpolation method showed substantially higher estimation error as well as clear biases, in comparison to the regional GAM method. The regional GAM method also showed higher power to detect trends when the proportion of missing counts was substantial. 4. Synthesis and applications. Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within-year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.

A tillering inhibition gene influences root-shoot carbon partitioning and pattern of water use to improve wheat productivity in rainfed environments

Genetic modification of shoot and root morphology has potential to improve water and nutrient 19 uptake of wheat crops in rainfed environments. Near-isogenic lines (NILs) varying for a tillering 20 inhibition (tin) gene and representing multiple genetic backgrounds were investigated in contrasting 21 controlled environments for shoot and root growth. Leaf area, shoot and root biomass were similar 22 until tillering whereupon reduced tillering in tin-containing NILs produced reductions of up to 60% in 23 total leaf area and biomass, and increases in total root length of up to 120% and root biomass to 24 145%. Together, root-to-shoot ratio increased two-fold with the tin gene. The influence of tin on shoot 25 and root growth was greatest in the cv. Banks genetic background, particularly in the biculm-selected 26 NIL, and was typically strongest in cooler environments. A separate de-tillering study confirmed 27 greater root-to-shoot ratios with regular tiller removal in non-tin containing genotypes. In validating 28 these observations in a rainfed field study, the tin allele had a negligible effect on seedling growth but 29 was associated with significantly (P<0.05) reduced tiller number (-37%), leaf area index (-26%) and 30 spike number (-35%) to reduce plant biomass (-19%) at anthesis. Root biomass, root-to-shoot ratio at 31 early stem elongation and root depth at maturity were increased in tin-containing NILs. Soil water use 32 was slowed in tin-containing NILs resulting in greater water availability, greater stomatal 33 conductance, cooler canopy temperatures and maintenance of green leaf area during grain-filling. 34 Together these effects contributed to increases in harvest index and grain yield. In both the controlled 35 and field environments, the tin gene was commonly associated with increased root length and biomass 36 but the significant influence of genetic background and environment suggests careful assessment of 37 tin-containing progeny in selection for genotypic increases in root growth.

Exploiting satellite-based rainfall for weather index insurance: the challenges of spatial and temporal aggregation

Lack of access to insurance exacerbates the impact of climate variability on smallholder famers in Africa. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, weather index insurance (WII) pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. In principle, WII could be provided to farmers throughout Africa. There are two data-related hurdles to this. First, most farmers do not live close enough to a rain gauge with sufficiently long record of observations. Second, mismatches between weather indices and yield may expose farmers to uncompensated losses, and insurers to unfair payouts – a phenomenon known as basis risk. In essence, basis risk results from complexities in the progression from meteorological drought (rainfall deficit) to agricultural drought (low soil moisture). In this study, we use a land-surface model to describe the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought. We demonstrate that spatial and temporal aggregation of rainfall results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a reduction in basis risk. We then use an advanced statistical method to show how optimal aggregation of satellite-based rainfall estimates can reduce basis risk, enabling remotely sensed data to be utilized robustly for WII.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.

Dietary Quality Index and Associated Factors among Adolescents of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objective To assess dietary quality and associated factors in adolescents. Study design We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in a sample of 1584 adolescents living in areas of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Dietary intake was measured with the 24-hour recall method, and dietary quality was assessed by means of the Health Eating Index (HEI), adapted to fit to the local requirements. Linear regression analyses were performed to assess the association between the HEI and demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle variables. Results A total of 97.1% of the adolescents studied had an inadequate diet or a diet that needed improvement. The mean overall HEI score was 59.7. Lower mean HEI scores were found for fruits, dairy products, and vegetables. Male adolescents who were physically active and lived in a house or apartment had higher HEI scores. The multiple regression analyses showed that the quality of the diet improved as age decreased. Adolescents who lived in houses or apartments had higher HEI scores than adolescents living in shacks or slums, regardless of age and energy intake. Conclusions Dietary quality is associated with income and age. A better understanding of the factors associated can provide input to the formulation of policies and development of nutritional actions. (J Pediatr 2010; 156:456-60).

Effects of processing methods on amaranth starch digestibility and predicted glycemic index

Amaranth has attracted a great deal of interest in recent decades due to its valuable nutritional, functional, and agricultural characteristics. Amaranth seeds can be cooked, popped, roasted, flaked, or extruded for consumption. This study compared the in vitro starch digestibility of processed amaranth seeds to that of white bread. Raw seeds yielded rapidly digestible starch content (RDS) of 30.7% db and predicted glycemic index (pGI) of 87.2, the lowest among the studied products. Cooked, extruded, and popped amaranth seeds had starch digestibility similar to that of white bread (92.4, 91.2, and 101.3, respectively), while flaked and roasted seeds generated a slightly increased glycemic response (106.0 and 105.8, respectively). Cooking and extrusion did not alter the RDS contents of the seeds. No significant differences were observed among popped, flaked, and roasted RDS contents (38.0%,46.3%, and 42.9%, respectively), which were all lower than RDS content of bread (51.1%). Amaranth seed is a high glycemic food most likely because of its small starch granule size, low resistant starch content (< 1%), and tendency to completely lose its crystalline and granular starch structure during those heat treatments.

Body mass index values for newborns according to gestational age

Objective: The combination of twho anthropometric parameters has been more appropriate to assess body composition and proportions in children, with special attention to the Body Mass Index (BMI), as it relates weight and length. However the BMI values for the neonatal period have not been determined yet. This study shows the BMI for newborns at different gestational ages represented in a normal smoothed percentile curve. Methods: Retrospective study including 2,406 appropriate for gestational age newborns following the Alexander et al curve (1996) from 29 to 42 weeks of gestational age. Weight and lenght were measured following standard procedures. For the construction aof a normal smoothed percentile curve, the 3(rd) 5(th), 10(th), 25(th), 5(th), 75(th), 90(th) and 95(th) percentiles were determined and a statistical procedure based on the mathematical model ""sinosuoidal fit"" was applied to establish a curve that estimates biological growth parameters. Results: The Body Mass Index values for gestational age in all percentiles shows a steady increase up to 38 weeks, levels off up to the 40(th) week, followed by a slight decrease to the 42(nd) week in both genders. Conclusion: The results show a direct correlation between gestational age and Body Mass Index for both genders in the nine percentiles, and can provide a useful reference to assess intra-uterine proportional growth.

Fluxes of CO(2) above a plantation of Eucalyptus in southeast Brazil

Eddy-covariance measurements of net ecosystem exchange of CO(2) (NEE) and estimates of gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (R(E)) were obtained in a 2-4 year old Eucalyptus plantation during two years with very different winter rainfall In the first (drier) year the annual NEE GEP and RE were lower than the sums in the second (normal) year and conversely the total respiratory costs of assimilated carbon were higher in the dry year than in the normal year Although the net primary production (NPP) in the first year was 23% lower than that of the second year the decrease in the carbon use efficiency (CUE = NPP/GEP) was 11% and autotrophic respiration utilized more resources in the first dry year than in the second normal year The time variations in NEE were followed by NPP because in these young Eucalyptus plantations NEE is very largely dominated by NPP and heterotrophic respiration plays only a relatively minor role During the dry season a pronounced hysteresis was observed in the relationship between NEE and photosynthetically active radiation and NEE fluxes were inversely proportional to humidity saturation deficit values greater than 0 8 kPa Nighttime fluxes of CO(2) during calm conditions when the friction velocity (u) was below the threshold (0 25 ms(-1)) were estimated based on a Q(10) temperature-dependence relationship adjusted separately for different classes of soil moisture content which regulated the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

The land-atmosphere water flux in the tropics

Tropical vegetation is a major source of global land surface evapotranspiration, and can thus play a major role in global hydrological cycles and global atmospheric circulation. Accurate prediction of tropical evapotranspiration is critical to our understanding of these processes under changing climate. We examined the controls on evapotranspiration in tropical vegetation at 21 pan-tropical eddy covariance sites, conducted a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of 13 evapotranspiration models at these sites, and assessed the ability to scale up model estimates of evapotranspiration for the test region of Amazonia. Net radiation was the strongest determinant of evapotranspiration (mean evaporative fraction was 0.72) and explained 87% of the variance in monthly evapotranspiration across the sites. Vapor pressure deficit was the strongest residual predictor (14%), followed by normalized difference vegetation index (9%), precipitation (6%) and wind speed (4%). The radiation-based evapotranspiration models performed best overall for three reasons: (1) the vegetation was largely decoupled from atmospheric turbulent transfer (calculated from X decoupling factor), especially at the wetter sites; (2) the resistance-based models were hindered by difficulty in consistently characterizing canopy (and stomatal) resistance in the highly diverse vegetation; (3) the temperature-based models inadequately captured the variability in tropical evapotranspiration. We evaluated the potential to predict regional evapotranspiration for one test region: Amazonia. We estimated an Amazonia-wide evapotranspiration of 1370 mm yr(-1), but this value is dependent on assumptions about energy balance closure for the tropical eddy covariance sites; a lower value (1096 mm yr(-1)) is considered in discussion on the use of flux data to validate and interpolate models.

An improved estimate of leaf area index based on the histogram analysis of hemispherical photographs

Leaf area index (LAI) is a key parameter that affects the surface fluxes of energy, mass, and momentum over vegetated lands, but observational measurements are scarce, especially in remote areas with complex canopy structure. In this paper we present an indirect method to calculate the LAI based on the analyses of histograms of hemispherical photographs. The optimal threshold value (OTV), the gray-level required to separate the background (sky) and the foreground (leaves), was analytically calculated using the entropy crossover method (Sahoo, P.K., Slaaf, D.W., Albert, T.A., 1997. Threshold selection using a minimal histogram entropy difference. Optical Engineering 36(7) 1976-1981). The OTV was used to calculate the LAI using the well-known gap fraction method. This methodology was tested in two different ecosystems, including Amazon forest and pasturelands in Brazil. In general, the error between observed and calculated LAI was similar to 6%. The methodology presented is suitable for the calculation of LAI since it is responsive to sky conditions, automatic, easy to implement, faster than commercially available software, and requires less data storage. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

INDEX OF AN IMPLICIT DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION

In this paper we introduce the concept of the index of an implicit differential equation F(x,y,p) = 0, where F is a smooth function, p = dy/dx, F(p) = 0 and F(pp) = 0 at an isolated singular point. We also apply the results to study the geometry of surfaces in R(5).

A further exploration of a nucleophilicity index based on the gas-phase ionization potentials

An empirical nucleophilicity index based on the gas-phase ionization potentials has been recently shown to be useful categorizing and settling the nucleophilicity power of a series of captodative ethylenes reacting in cycloaddition reactions (L.R. Domingo, E. Chamorro, P. Perez, Journal of Organic Chemistry 73 (2008) 4615-4624). In the present work, the applicability of such model is tested within a broader series of substituted alkenes, substituted aromatic compounds and simple nucleophilic molecules. This index obtained within a Koopman`s theorem framework has been evaluated here in both gas and solution phases for several well-known nucleophiles. These results are found to be linearly correlated. Finally, the feasibility of the predictive character of this index has been discussed in comparison to the available experimental nucleophilicities of some amines in water. These results further support and validate the usefulness of such approximation in the modeling of the global nucleophilicity. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear refractive index of RECOB (RE = Gd and La) crystals

The Z-scan technique is employed to obtain the nonlinear refractive index (n (2)) of the Ca(4)REO(BO(3))(3) (RECOB, where RE = Gd and La) single crystals using 30 fs laser pulses centered at 780 nm for the two orthogonal orientations determined by the optical axes (X and Z) relative to the direction of propagation of the laser beam (k//Y// crystallographic b-axis). The large values of n (2) indicate that both GdCOB and LaCOB are potential hosts for Yb:RECOB lasers operating in the Kerr-lens mode locking (KLM) regime.