Metaheuristhic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

O auteur a ver-se a si mesmo ao espelho: as alegorias do enunciador em Jean Cocteau

ABSTRACT - Jean Cocteau, French cinema auteur avant la lettre, has consecrated his uniqueness to the defense of the “poet” and the promotion of its artistic ideals, before the French Nouvelle Vague inspired the break away from the filmic tradition and ahead of the eulogistic tendency to consider the director the undisputed creative entity of the filmmaking process. The Orphic trilogy expresses Cocteau’s cinematic philosophy in action. In other words, it reveals the way by which the creative entity affirms itself as the major filmic enunciator, through an allegorical relationship with vision. Therefore, Cocteau’s self-reflexive metacinema conjoins, in a fertile attunement, the starting point and the ultimate goal, the creation and the reception. Without being exactly a cinema about the cinema, this artistic practice is, nonetheless, very much with the cinema, feeding as it does on its essence. The films Le Sang d’un poète (“The Blood of a Poet”, 1932), Orphée (“Orpheus”, 1950) and Le Testament d’Orphée, ou ne me demandez pas pourquoi! (“Testament of Orpheus”, 1960) recreate, in allegorical form, the double creative function: the look of the directing entity reflects the gaze of the observer, just as this one always restores the presence of the creator. In short: Cocteau’s films, more than anyone else’s, deliberately reflect its auteur as enunciator.

Handling random errors and biases in methods used for short-term dietary assessment

Epidemiological studies have shown the effect of diet on the incidence of chronic diseases; however, proper planning, designing, and statistical modeling are necessary to obtain precise and accurate food consumption data. Evaluation methods used for short-term assessment of food consumption of a population, such as tracking of food intake over 24h or food diaries, can be affected by random errors or biases inherent to the method. Statistical modeling is used to handle random errors, whereas proper designing and sampling are essential for controlling biases. The present study aimed to analyze potential biases and random errors and determine how they affect the results. We also aimed to identify ways to prevent them and/or to use statistical approaches in epidemiological studies involving dietary assessments.

Wind-CSP short-term coordination by Milp approach

This paper is on the maximization of total profit in a day-ahead market for a price-taker producer needing a short-term scheduling for wind power plants coordination with concentrated solar power plants, having thermal energy storage systems. The optimization approach proposed for the maximization of profit is a mixed-integer linear programming problem. The approach considers not only transmission grid constraints, but also technical operating constraints on both wind and concentrated solar power plants. Then, an improved short-term scheduling coordination is provided due to the more accurate modelling presented in this paper. Computer simulation results based on data for the Iberian wind and concentrated solar power plants illustrate the coordination benefits and show the effectiveness of the approach.

The effect of metal transfer stability (spattering) on fume generation, morphology and composition in short-circuit MAG welding

The main objective of this work was to evaluate the hypothesis that the greater transfer stability leads also to less volume of fumes. Using an Ar + 25%CO2 blend as shielding gas and maintaining constant the average current, wire feed speed and welding speed, bead-on-plate welds were carried out with plain carbon steel solid wire. The welding voltage was scanned to progressively vary the transfer stability. Using two conditions of low stability and one with high stability, fume generation was evaluated by means of the AWS F1.2:2006 standard. The influence of these conditions on fume morphology and composition was also verified. A condition with greater transfer stability does not generate less fume quantity, despite the fact that this condition produces fewer spatters. Other factors such as short-circuit current, arcing time, droplet diameters and arc length are the likely governing factors, but in an interrelated way. Metal transfer stability does not influence either the composition or the size/morphology of fume particulates. (c) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How short and light can a simple pendulum be for classroom use?

We compare the period of oscillation of an ideal simple pendulum with the period of a more 'real' pendulum constituted of a rigid sphere and a rigid slender rod. We determine the relative error in the calculation of the local acceleration of gravity if the period of the ideal pendulum is use?d instead of the period of this real pendulum. © 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd..

Demux devices based on A-SiC:H

In this paper we present results about the functioning of a multilayered a-SiC:H heterostructure as a device for wavelength-division demultiplexing of optical signals. The device is composed of two stacked p-i-n photodiodes, both optimized for the selective collection of photogenerated carriers. Band gap engineering was used to adjust the photogeneration and recombination rates profiles of the intrinsic absorber regions of each photodiode to short and long wavelength absorption and carrier collection in the visible spectrum. The photocurrent signal using different input optical channels was analyzed at reverse and forward bias and under steady state illumination. This photocurrent is used as an input for a demux algorithm based on the voltage controlled sensitivity of the device. The device functioning is explained with results obtained by numerical simulation of the device, which permit an insight to the internal electric configuration of the double heterojunction.These results address the explanation of the device functioning in the frequency domain to a wavelength tunable photocapacitance due to the accumulation of space charge localized at the internal junction. The existence of a direct relation between the experimentally observed capacitive effects of the double diode and the quality of the semiconductor materials used to form the internal junction is highlighted.

Robotic manipulators with vibrations: short time fourier transform of fractional spectra

This paper analyzes the signals captured during impacts and vibrations of a mechanical manipulator. In order to acquire and study the signals an experimental setup is implemented. The signals are treated through signal processing tools such as the fast Fourier transform and the short time Fourier transform. The results show that the Fourier spectrum of several signals presents a non integer behavior. The experimental study provides valuable results that can assist in the design of a control system to deal with the unwanted effects of vibrations.

In vitro susceptibility of Paracoccidioides brasiliensis yeast form to antifungal agents

A study was conducted to determine the susceptibility of P. brasiliensis yeast form to amphotericin B (A), ketoconazole (K), 5-fluorocytosine (5-FC) and rifampin (R). The three isolates tested produced minimal inhibitory concentrations (MICs) (mcg/ml) in the following range: A: 0.09-0.18; K: 0.001-0.007; 5-FC: 62.5-250 and R: 40-80. The minimal fungicidal concentrations (MFC) were several times higher than the corresponding MICs. Precise MFC for 5-FC were not obtained (> 500 mcg/ml). Combination of K plus A proved synergic, with the fractional inhibitory concentration (FIC) indices revealing synergy when the drugs were combined at the 1 to 1 and 1 to 5 MIC ratios. R (40 mcg/ml) appeared to antagonize K. These results indicate promise for the combined use of K plus A as a therapeutical regimen.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Viscerocutaneous form of loxoscelism and erythrocyte glucose-6-phosphate deficiency

In a period of time of five years, all patients who exhibited viscerocutaneous form of loxoscelism were investigated for erythrocyte glucose-6-phosphate deficiency, and in two patients out of seven it was found this deficiency. This finding suggests that this genetical enzyme deficiency could account for the hemolysis after Loxosceles bite, at least in some of the cases.

Biogeography, host specificity, and molecular phylogeny of the basidiomycetous yeast phaffia rhodozyma and its sexual form, xanthophyllomyces dendrorhous

Applied and Environmental Microbiology, Vol. 73, No.4

Hypoprothrombinemia in the compensated form of hepatosplenic schistosomiasis: further studies

Coagulation abnormality is frequently observed in schistosomiasis patients but its pathophysiology has not been established. We measured, by immunodiffusion. the prothrombin-antigen concentration in 56 individuals; of these 19 with demonstrated compensated form of hepatosplenic schistosomiasis, 17 with cirrhosis and 20 were control subjects. Transaminases, albumin, transthyretin, prothrombin time, antithrombin III, factor VII, and fibrinogen were also evaluated. All parameters were altered in the cirrhotic group but only albumin, prothrombin and antithrombin III levels were altered in the schistosomiasis group. Ninety percent of the patients with cirrhosis and sixty percent of the patients with schistosomiasis had abnormal plasma levels of albumin, transthyretin, prothrombin-antigen, and/or antithrombin III; an impaired hepatic synthesis was responsible for these results. Conversely forty percent of the schistosomiasis patients with normal plasma concentrations of both albumin and transthyretin had decreased mean plasma levels of both prothrombin and antithrombin III. These results suggest that either proth rombin and antithrombin III are more sensitive markers of impaired hepatic synthesis in schistosomiasis than are levels of albumin and transthyretin combined, or a low grade chronic consumption of clotting proteins also occurs. Considering the latter hypothesis it is possible that the thrombin formed would be inhibited by antithrombin III with the complexed thrombin-antithrombin III being cleared by the liver. Consequently the plasma levels of both prothrombin and antithrombin would be decreased, but the level of fibrinogen would be preserved.

A CMOS variable width short-pulse generator circuit for UWB RADAR applications

IEEE International Symposium on Circuits and Systems, pp. 2713 – 2716, Seattle, EUA

The computational role of short-term plasticity and the balance of excitation and inhibition in neural microcircuits: experimental and theoretical analysis

The computations performed by the brain ultimately rely on the functional connectivity between neurons embedded in complex networks. It is well known that the neuronal connections, the synapses, are plastic, i.e. the contribution of each presynaptic neuron to the firing of a postsynaptic neuron can be independently adjusted. The modulation of effective synaptic strength can occur on time scales that range from tens or hundreds of milliseconds, to tens of minutes or hours, to days, and may involve pre- and/or post-synaptic modifications. The collection of these mechanisms is generally believed to underlie learning and memory and, hence, it is fundamental to understand their consequences in the behavior of neurons.(...)