Finite sample weighting of recursive forecast errors

This paper proposes and tests a new framework for weighting recursive out-of-sample prediction errors according to their corresponding levels of in-sample estimation uncertainty. In essence, we show how to use the maximum possible amount of information from the sample in the evaluation of the prediction accuracy, by commencing the forecasts at the earliest opportunity and weighting the prediction errors. Via a Monte Carlo study, we demonstrate that the proposed framework selects the correct model from a set of candidate models considerably more often than the existing standard approach when only a small sample is available. We also show that the proposed weighting approaches result in tests of equal predictive accuracy that have much better sizes than the standard approach. An application to an exchange rate dataset highlights relevant differences in the results of tests of predictive accuracy based on the standard approach versus the framework proposed in this paper.

Sample size considerations in active-control non-inferiority trials with binary data based on the odds ratio

This paper presents an approximate closed form sample size formula for determining non-inferiority in active-control trials with binary data. We use the odds-ratio as the measure of the relative treatment effect, derive the sample size formula based on the score test and compare it with a second, well-known formula based on the Wald test. Both closed form formulae are compared with simulations based on the likelihood ratio test. Within the range of parameter values investigated, the score test closed form formula is reasonably accurate when non-inferiority margins are based on odds-ratios of about 0.5 or above and when the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis lies between about 1 and 2.5. The accuracy generally decreases as the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis moves upwards from 1. As the non-inferiority margin odds ratio decreases from 0.5, the score test closed form formula increasingly overestimates the sample size irrespective of the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. The Wald test closed form formula is also reasonably accurate in the cases where the score test closed form formula works well. Outside these scenarios, the Wald test closed form formula can either underestimate or overestimate the sample size, depending on the magnitude of the non-inferiority margin odds ratio and the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. Although neither approximation is accurate for all cases, both approaches lead to satisfactory sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials with binary data where the odds ratio is the parameter of interest.

Overgeneral autobiological memory in women: association with childhood abuse and history of depression in a community sample

Objective. Numerous studies have reported elevated levels of overgeneral autobiographical memory among depressed patients and also among those previously exposed to a traumatic event. No previous study has examined their joint association with overgeneral memory in a community sample, nor examined whether the associations are with both juvenile- and adult-onset depression. Methods. The current study examined the relative importance of exposure to childhood abuse and neglect in overgeneral memory of women with and without a history of major depressive disorder (MDD). Autobiographical memory test together with standardized interviews of childhood experiences and MDD were assessed in a risk-stratified community sample of 103 women aged 25–37. Results. Overgenerality in memory was associated with recalled childhood sexual abuse (CSA) but not other adversities. A history of CSA was predictive of overgeneral memory bias even in the absence of MDD. Our analyses indicated no significant association between a history of MDD and overgeneral memory in women who reported no CSA. However, overgeneral memory was increased in women who reported CSA and MDD with a significant difference found in relation to positive cues, the highest scores being seen among those with adult rather than juvenile-onset depression. Conclusions. The findings highlight the significance of CSA in predicting overgeneral memory, differential response in relation to positive and negative cue memories, and point to a specific role in the development of depression for overgeneral memory following CSA.

Production of milk foams by steam injection: the effects of steam pressure and nozzle design

Foam properties depend on the physico-chemical characteristics of the continuous phase, the method of production and process conditions employed; however the preparation of barista-style milk foams in coffee shops by injection of steam uses milk as its main ingredient which limits the control of foam properties by changing the biochemical characteristics of the continuous phase. Therefore, the control of process conditions and nozzle design are the only ways available to produce foams with diverse properties. Milk foams were produced employing different steam pressures (100-280 kPa gauge) and nozzle designs (ejector, plunging-jet and confined-jet nozzles). The foamability of milk, and the stability, bubble size and texture of the foams were investigated. Variations in steam pressure and nozzle design changed the hydrodynamic conditions during foam production, resulting in foams having a range of properties. Steam pressure influenced foam characteristics, although the net effect depended on the nozzle design used. These results suggest that, in addition to the physicochemical determinants of milk, the foam properties can also be controlled by changing the steam pressure and nozzle design.

Effects of a multi-session Cognitive Bias Modification program on interpretative biases and social anxiety symptoms in a sample of Iranian socially-anxious students

This study examines the effects of a multi-session Cognitive Bias Modification (CBM) program on interpretative biases and social anxiety in an Iranian sample. Thirty-six volunteers with a high score on social anxiety measures were recruited from a student population and randomly allocated into the experimental and control groups. In the experimental group, participants received 4 sessions of positive CBM for interpretative biases (CBM-I) over 2 weeks in the laboratory. Participants in the control condition completed a neutral task matched the active CBM-I intervention in format and duration but did not encourage positive disambiguation of socially ambiguous scenarios. The results indicated that after training the positive CBM-I group exhibited more positive (and less negative) interpretations of ambiguous scenarios and less social anxiety symptoms relative to the control condition at both 1 week post-test and 7 weeks follow-up. It is suggested that clinical trials are required to establish the clinical efficacy of this intervention for social anxiety.

Reverse correlation reveals how observers sample visual information when estimating three-dimensional shape

Human observers exhibit large systematic distance-dependent biases when estimating the three-dimensional (3D) shape of objects defined by binocular image disparities. This has led some to question the utility of disparity as a cue to 3D shape and whether accurate estimation of 3D shape is at all possible. Others have argued that accurate perception is possible, but only with large continuous perspective transformations of an object. Using a stimulus that is known to elicit large distance-dependent perceptual bias (random dot stereograms of elliptical cylinders) we show that contrary to these findings the simple adoption of a more naturalistic viewing angle completely eliminates this bias. Using behavioural psychophysics, coupled with a novel surface-based reverse correlation methodology, we show that it is binocular edge and contour information that allows for accurate and precise perception and that observers actively exploit and sample this information when it is available.

The numbers of sample design for evaluation of the soil fertility

The determination of the amount of sample units that will compose the sample express the optimization of the workforce, and reduce errors inherent in the report of recommendation and evaluation of soil fertility. This study aimed to determine in three systems use and soil management, the numbers of units samples design, needed to form the composed sample, for evaluation of soil fertility. It was concluded that the number of sample units needed to compose the composed sample to determination the attributes of organic matter, pH, P, K, Ca, Mg, Al and H+Al and base saturation of soil vary by use and soil management and error acceptable to the mean estimate. For the same depth of collected, increasing the number of sample units, reduced the percentage error in estimating the average, allowing the recommendation of 14, 14 and 11 sample in management with native vegetation, pasture cultivation and corn, respectively, for a error 20% on the mean estimate.

Short- and long-term anxiogenic effects induced by a single injection of subconvulsant doses of pilocarpine in rats: investigation of the putative role of hippocampal pathways

Behavioral consequences of convulsive episodes are well documented, but less attention was paid to changes that occur in response to subconvulsant doses of drugs. We investigated short- and long-term effects of a single systemic injection of a subconvulsant dose of pilocarpine on the behavior of rats as evaluated in the elevated plus maze. Pilocarpine induced an anxiogenic-like profile 24 h later, and this effect persisted for up to 3 months (% of time spent on open arms at 24 h, control = 35.47 +/- 3.23; pilocarpine 150 = 8.2 +/- 2.6; 3 months, control = 31.9 +/- 5.5; pilocarpine 150 = 9.3 +/- 4.9). Temporary inactivation of fimbria-fornix with lidocaine 4% promoted an anxiolytic-like effect per se, suggesting a tonic control of this pathway on the modulation of anxiety-related behaviors. Lidocaine also reduced the anxiogenic-like profile of animals tested 1 month after pilocarpine treatment (% of time spent on open arms, saline + phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) = 31.7 + 3.7; saline + lidocaine = 54.4 + 4.7; pilocarpine + PBS = 10.3 + 4.1; pilocarpine + lidocaine = 40.1 + 9.1). To determine whether the anxiogenic-like effect was mediated by septal region or by direct hippocampal projections to the diencephalon, the neural transmission of post-commissural fornix was blocked, and a similar reduction in the anxiogenic-like effect of pilocarpine was observed. Our findings suggest that a single systemic injection of pilocarpine may induce long-lasting anxiogenic-like behavior in rats, an effect that appears to be mediated, in part, through a direct path from hippocampus to medial hypothalamic sites involved in fear responses.

Liver glycogen metabolism during short-term insulin-induced hypoglycemia in fed rats

The activities of glycogen phosphorylase and synthase during infusions of glucagon, isoproterenol, or cyanide in isolated liver of fed rats submitted to short-term insulin-induced hypoglycemia (IIH) was investigated. A condition of hyperinsulinemia/hypoglycemia was obtained with an intraperitoneal injection of regular insulin (1.0 U kg(-1)). The control group received ip saline. The experiments were carried out 60 min after insulin (IIH group) or saline (COG group) injection. The rats were anesthetized and after laparotomy, blood was collected from the vena cava for glucose and insulin measurements. The liver was their infused with glucagon (1 nM), isoproterenot (2 mu M), or cyanide (0.5 mM) during 20 min and a sample of the organ was collected for determination of the activities of glycogen phosphorylase and synthase 5 min after starting and 10 min after stopping the infusions. The infusions of cyanide, glucagons, and isoproterenol did not change the activities of glycogen synthase and glycogen phosphorylase. However, glycogen catabolism was decreased during the infusions of glucagon and isoproterenol in IIH rats, being more intense with isoproterenol (p < 0.05), than glucagon. It was concluded that short-term IIH promoted changes in the liver responsiveness of glycogen degradation induced by glucagon and isoproterenol without a change in the activities of glycogen phosphorylase and synthase. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Technical variation in a sample of high level judo players

Technical actions performed by two groups of judokas who won medals at World Championships and Olympic Games during the period 1995-2001 were analyzed. In the Super Elite group (n = 17) were the best athletes in each weight category. The Elite group (n = 16) were medal winners who were not champions and did not win more than three medals. Super Elite judokas used a greater number of throwing techniques which resulted in scores, even when expressed relative to the total number of matches performed, and these techniques were applied in more directions than those of Elite judokas. Further, the number of different throwing techniques and the variability of directions in which techniques were applied were significantly correlated with number of wins and the number of points and ippon scored. Thus, a greater number of throwing techniques and use of directions for attack seem to be important in increasing unpredictability during judo matches.

An unstructured CVFEM and moving interface algorithm for non-Newtonian Hele-Shaw flows in injection molding

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel unstructured simulation approach for injection molding processes described by the Hele-Shaw model. Design/methodology/approach - The scheme involves dual dynamic meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset. The quasi-static pressure solution in each timestep for this evolving unstructured mesh system is approximated using a control volume finite element method formulation coupled to a corresponding modified volume of fluid method. The flow is considered to be isothermal and non-Newtonian. Findings - Supporting numerical tests and performance studies for polystyrene described by Carreau, Cross, Ellis and Power-law fluid models are conducted. Results for the present method are shown to be comparable to those from other methods for both Newtonian fluid and polystyrene fluid injected in different mold geometries. Research limitations/implications - With respect to the methodology, the background pointset infers a mesh that is dynamically reconstructed here, and there are a number of efficiency issues and improvements that would be relevant to industrial applications. For instance, one can use the pointset to construct special bases and invoke a so-called ""meshless"" scheme using the basis. This would require some interesting strategies to deal with the dynamic point enrichment of the moving front that could benefit from the present front treatment strategy. There are also issues related to mass conservation and fill-time errors that might be addressed by introducing suitable projections. The general question of ""rate of convergence"" of these schemes requires analysis. Numerical results here suggest first-order accuracy and are consistent with the approximations made, but theoretical results are not available yet for these methods. Originality/value - This novel unstructured simulation approach involves dual meshes with active and inactive cells determined from an initial background pointset: local active dual patches are constructed ""on-the-fly"" for each ""active point"" to form a dynamic virtual mesh of active elements that evolves with the moving interface.

Chemical process to separate iron oxides particles in pottery sample for EPR dating

Ancient potteries usually are made of the local clay material, which contains relatively high concentration of iron. The powdered samples are usually quite black, due to magnetite, and, although they can be used for thermoluminescene (TL) dating, it is easiest to obtain better TL reading when clearest natural or pre-treated sample is used. For electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) measurements, the huge signal due to iron spin-spin interaction, promotes an intense interference overlapping any other signal in this range. Sample dating is obtained by dividing the radiation dose, determined by the concentration of paramagnetic species generated by irradiation, by the natural dose so as a consequence, EPR dating cannot be used, since iron signal do not depend on radiation dose. In some cases, the density separation method using hydrated solution of sodium polytungstate [Na(G)(H(2)W(12)O(40))center dot H(2)O] becomes useful. However, the sodium polytungstate is very expensive in Brazil: hence an alternative method for eliminating this interference is proposed. A chemical process to eliminate about 90% of magnetite was developed. A sample of powdered ancient pottery was treated in a mixture (3:1:1) of HCI, HNO(3) and H(2)O(2) for 4 h. After that, it was washed several times in distilled water to remove all acid matrixes. The original black sample becomes somewhat clearer. The resulting material was analyzed by plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), with the result that the iron content is reduced by a factor of about 9. In EPR measurements a non-treated natural ceramic sample shows a broad spin-spin interaction signal, the chemically treated sample presents a narrow signal in g= 2.00 region, possibly due to a radical of (SiO(3))(3-), mixed with signal of remaining iron [M. lkeya, New Applications of Electron Spin Resonance, World Scientific, Singapore, 1993, p. 285]. This signal increases in intensity under -gamma-irradiation. However, still due to iron influence, the additive method yielded too old age-value. Since annealing at 300 degrees C, Toyoda and Ikeya IS. Toyoda, M. Ikeya, Geochem. J. 25 (1991) 427-445] states that E `(1)-signal with maximum intensity is obtained, while annealing at 400 degrees C E`(1)-signal is completely eliminated, the subtraction of the second one from 300 degrees C heat-treated sample isolate E`(1)-like signal. Since this is radiation dose-dependent, we show that now EPR dating becomes possible. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The direct determination of rare earth elements in basaltic and related rocks using ICP-MS: Testing the efficiency of microwave oven sample decomposition procedures

Tests are described showing the results obtained for the determination of REE and the trace elements Rb, Y, Zr, Nb, Cs, Ba, Hf, Ta, Pb, Th and U with ICP-MS methodology for nine basaltic reference materials, and thirteen basalts and amphibolites from the mafic-ultramafic Niquelandia Complex, central Brazil. Sample decomposition for the reference materials was performed by microwave oven digestion (HF and HNO(3), 100 mg of sample), and that for the Niquelandia samples also by Parr bomb treatment (5 days at 200 degrees C, 40 mg of sample). Results for the reference materials were similar to published values, thus showing that the microwave technique can be used with confidence for basaltic rocks. No fluoride precipitates were observed in the microwave-digested solutions. Total recovery of elements, including Zr and Hf, was obtained for the Niquelandia samples, with the exception of an amphibolite. For this latter sample, the Parr method achieved a total digestion, but not so the microwave decomposition; losses, however, were observed only for Zr and Hf, indicating difficulty in dissolving Zr-bearing minerals by microwave acid attack.

Small-Sample Corrections for Score Tests in Birnbaum-Saunders Regressions

In this article, we deal with the issue of performing accurate small-sample inference in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model, which can be useful for modeling lifetime or reliability data. We derive a Bartlett-type correction for the score test and numerically compare the corrected test with the usual score test and some other competitors.