792 resultados para Risk and loss functions


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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Introduction: The progress in technology, associated to the high survival rate in premature newborn infants in neonatal intensive care units, causes an increase in morbidity. Individuals with CP present complex motor alterations, with primary deficits of abnormal muscle tone affecting posture and voluntary movement, alteration of balance and coordination, decrease of force, and loss of selective motor control with secondary problems of contractures and bone deformities. Objective: The aim of this work is to describe the spontaneous movement and strategies that lead infants with cerebral palsy to move. Methods: Seven infants used to receive assistance at the Essential Stimulation Center of CIAM (Israeli Center for Multidisciplinary Support - Philanthropic Institution), with ages ranging between six and 18 months with diagnosis of Cerebral Palsy (CP) were assessed. Results: The results show the difficulty presented by the infants with respect to the spontaneous motor functions and the necessity of help from the caregiver in order to perform the functional activity (mobility). Prematurity prevails as the major risk factor among the complications. Conclusion: The child development can be understood as a product of the dynamic interactions involving the infant, the family, and the context. Thus, the social interactions and family environment in which the infant live may encourage or limit both the acquisition of skills and the functional independence.

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In this paper, we proposed a new three-parameter long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard function, the long-term complementary exponential geometric distribution. The new distribution arises from latent competing risk scenarios, where the lifetime associated scenario, with a particular risk, is not observable, rather we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks, and the presence of long-term survival. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability, hazard and quantile functions and order statistics. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum-likelihood approach. A simulation study assesses the performance of the estimation procedure. We compare the new distribution with its particular cases, as well as with the long-term Weibull distribution on three real data sets, observing its potential and competitiveness in comparison with some usual long-term lifetime distributions.

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Abstract Background Depressive symptoms and chronic disease have adverse effects on patients' health-related quality of life (H-RQOL). However, little is known about this effect on H-RQOL when only the two core depressive symptoms - loss of interest and depressed mood - are considered. The objective of this study is to investigate H-RQOL in the presence of loss of interest and depressed mood at a general medical outpatient unit. Methods We evaluated 553 patients at their first attendance at a general medical outpatient unit of a teaching hospital. H-RQOL was assessed with the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36). Depressed mood and loss of interest were assessed by the Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders (PRIME-MD)-Patient Questionnaire. A physician performed the diagnosis of chronic diseases by clinical judgment and classified them in 13 possible pre-defined categories. We used multiple linear regression to investigate associations between each domain of H-RQOL and our two core depression symptoms. The presence of chronic diseases and demographic variables were included in the models as covariates. Results Among the 553 patients, 70.5% were women with a mean age of 41.0 years (range 18-85, SD ± 15.4). Loss of interest was reported by 54.6%, and depressed mood by 59.7% of the patients. At least one chronic disease was diagnosed in 59.5% of patients; cardiovascular disease was the most prevalent, affecting 20.6% of our patients. Loss of interest and depressed mood was significantly associated with decreased scores in all domains of H-RQOL after adjustment for possible confounders. The presence of any chronic disease was associated with a decrease in the domain of vitality. The analysis of each individual chronic disease category revealed that no category was associated with a decrease in more than one domain of H-RQOL. Conclusion Loss of interest and depressed mood were associated with significant decreases in H-RQOL. We recommend these simple tests for screening in general practice.

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A reduced cancer risk associated with fruit and vegetable phytochemicals initially dictated chemopreventive approaches focused on specific green variety consumption or even single nutrient supplementations. However, these strategies not only failed to provide any health benefits but gave rise to detrimental effects. In parallel, public-health chemoprevention programmes were developed in the USA and Europe to increase whole vegetable consumption. Among these, the National Cancer Institute (NCI) sponsored plan “5 to 9 a day for a better health” was one of the most popular. This campaign promoted wide food choice through the consumption of at least 5 to 9 servings a day of colourful fruits and vegetables. In this study the effects of the diet suggested by NCI on transcription, translation and catalytic activity of both xenobiotic metabolizing (XME) and antioxidant enzymes were studied in the animal model. In fact, the boost of both antioxidant defences and “good” phase-II together with down-regulation of “bad” phase-I XMEs is still considered one of the most widely-used strategies of cancer control. Six male Sprague Dawley rats for each treatment group were used. According to the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, a serving of fruit, vegetables and leafy greens corresponds to 150, 250 and 50 g, respectively, in a 70 kg man. Proportionally, rats received one or five servings of lyophilized onion, tomato, peach, black grape or lettuce – for white, red, yellow, violet or green diet, respectively - or five servings of each green (“5 a day” diet) by oral gavage daily for 10 consecutive days. Liver subcellular fractions were tested for various cytochrome P450 (CYP) linked-monooxygenases, phase-II supported XMEs such as glutathione S-transferase (GST) and UDP-glucuronosyl transferase (UDPGT) as well as for some antioxidant enzymes. Hepatic transcriptional and translational effects were evaluated by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and Western blot analysis, respectively. dROMs test was used to measure plasmatic oxidative stress. Routine haematochemical parameters were also monitored. While the five servings administration didn’t significantly vary XME catalytic activity, the lower dose caused a complex pattern of CYP inactivation with lettuce exerting particularly strong effects (a loss of up to 43% and 45% for CYP content and CYP2B1/2-linked XME, respectively; P<0.01). “5 a day” supplementation produced the most pronounced modulations (a loss of up to 60% for CYP2E1-linked XME and a reduction of CYP content of 54%; P<0.01). Testosterone hydroxylase activity confirmed these results. RT-PCR and Western blot analysis revealed that the “5 a day” diet XMEs inactivations were a result of both a transcriptional and a translational effect while lettuce didn’t exert such effects. All administrations brought out none or fewer modulation of phase-II supported XMEs. Apart from “5 a day” supplementation and the single serving of lettuce, which strongly induced DT- diaphorase (an increase of up to 141 and 171%, respectively; P<0.01), antioxidant enzymes were not significantly changed. RT-PCR analysis confirmed DT-diaphorase induction brought about by the administration of both “5 a day” diet and a single serving of lettuce. Furthermore, it unmasked a similar result for heme-oxygenase. dROMs test provided insight into a condition of high systemic oxidative stress as a consequence of animal diet supplementation with “5 a day” diet and a single serving of lettuce (an increase of up to 600% and 900%, respectively; P<0.01). Haematochemical parameters were mildly affected by such dietary manipulations. According to the classical chemopreventive theory, these results could be of particular relevance. In fact, even if antioxidant enzymes were only mildly affected, the phase-I inactivating ability of these vegetables would be a worthy strategy to cancer control. However, the recorded systemic considerable amount of reactive oxygen species and the complexity of these enzymes and their functions suggest caution in the widespread use of vegan/vegetarian diets as human chemopreventive strategies. In fact, recent literature rather suggests that only diets rich in fruits and vegetables and poor in certain types of fat, together with moderate caloric intake, could be associated with reduced cancer risk.

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This dissertation concentrate on the mortgage securitization and its credit risk, which are criticized as the main causes of the financial crisis. From the point of the veiw of mortgage's evolution, the nature, structure and function of mortgage has been radically changed, yet the mortgage law did not give appropriate response to this market change. Meanwhile, the U.S legilslations facilitating the mortgage securitization also have rotten the legal foundations for mortgage market self-regulation and sustained development. In contrast, the EU covered bond system has kept financial stability for 200 years' time, and their statutory approach has been proved to be able to control the credit risk and incentive problems very well, in combination of market self-regulation and public regulation. So the future reform should be directed to strengthen the market's capacity of self-regulation and improve the public regulation. For the development of mortgage securitization in China, it is suggested to introduce the EU covered bond system for the reason of the equilibrium between funding efficiency and financial stability.

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The motor system can no longer be considered as a mere passive executive system of motor commands generated elsewhere in the brain. On the contrary, it is deeply involved in perceptual and cognitive functions and acts as an “anticipation device”. The present thesis investigates the anticipatory motor mechanisms occurring in two particular instances: i) when processing sensory events occurring within the peripersonal space (PPS); and ii) when perceiving and predicting others’actions. The first study provides evidence that PPS representation in humans modulates neural activity within the motor system, while the second demonstrates that the motor mapping of sensory events occurring within the PPS critically relies on the activity of the premotor cortex. The third study provides direct evidence that the anticipatory motor simulation of others’ actions critically relies on the activity of the anterior node of the action observation network (AON), namely the inferior frontal cortex (IFC). The fourth study, sheds light on the pivotal role of the left IFC in predicting the future end state of observed right-hand actions. Finally, the fifth study examines how the ability to predict others’ actions could be influenced by a reduction of sensorimotor experience due to the traumatic or congenital loss of a limb. Overall, the present work provides new insights on: i) the anticipatory mechanisms of the basic reactivity of the motor system when processing sensory events occurring within the PPS, and the same anticipatory motor mechanisms when perceiving others’ implied actions; ii) the functional connectivity and plasticity of premotor-motor circuits both during the motor mapping of sensory events occurring within the PPS and when perceiving others’ actions; and iii) the anticipatory mechanisms related to others’ actions prediction.

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Because of the development of modern transportation facilities, an ever rising number of individuals including many patients with preexisting diseases visit high-altitude locations (>2500 m). High-altitude exposure triggers a series of physiologic responses intended to maintain an adequate tissue oxygenation. Even in normal subjects, there is enormous interindividual variability in these responses that may be further amplified by environmental factors such as cold temperature, low humidity, exercise, and stress. These adaptive mechanisms, although generally tolerated by most healthy subjects, may induce major problems in patients with preexisting cardiovascular diseases in which the functional reserves are already limited. Preexposure assessment of patients helps to minimize risk and detect contraindications to high-altitude exposure. Moreover, the great variability and nonpredictability of the adaptive response should encourage physicians counseling such patients to adapt a cautionary approach. Here, we will briefly review how high-altitude adjustments may interfere with and aggravate/decompensate preexisting cardiovascular diseases. Moreover, we will provide practical recommendations on how to investigate and counsel patients with cardiovascular disease desiring to travel to high-altitude locations.

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Studies have shown a growing trend toward increasing prevalence of dental erosion, associated with the declining prevalence of caries disease in industrialized countries. Erosion is an irreversible chemical process that results in tooth substance loss and leaves teeth susceptible to damage as a result of wear over the course of an individual's lifetime. Therefore, early diagnosis and adequate prevention are essential to minimize the risk of tooth erosion. Clinical appearance is the most important sign to be used to diagnose erosion. The Basic Erosive Wear Examination (BEWE) is a simple method to fulfill this task. The determination of a variety of risk and protective factors (patient-dependent and nutrition-dependent factors) as well as their interplay are necessary to initiate preventive measures tailored to the individual. When tooth loss caused by erosive wear reaches a certain level, oral rehabilitation becomes necessary.

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Background: Body mass index (BMI) is a risk factor for endometrial cancer. We quantified the risk and investigated whether the association differed by use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT), menopausal status, and histologic type. Methods: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (1966 to December 2009) to identify prospective studies of BMI and incident endometrial cancer. We did random-effects meta-analyses, meta-regressions, and generalized least square regressions for trend estimations assuming linear, and piecewise linear, relationships. Results: Twenty-four studies (17,710 cases) were analyzed; 9 studies contributed to analyses by HRT, menopausal status, or histologic type, all published since 2003. In the linear model, the overall risk ratio (RR) per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI was 1.60 (95% CI, 1.52–1.68), P < 0.0001. In the piecewise model, RRs compared with a normal BMI were 1.22 (1.19–1.24), 2.09 (1.94–2.26), 4.36 (3.75–5.10), and 9.11 (7.26–11.51) for BMIs of 27, 32, 37, and 42 kg/m2, respectively. The association was stronger in never HRT users than in ever users: RRs were 1.90 (1.57–2.31) and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.06–1.31) with P for interaction ¼ 0.003. In the piecewise model, the RR in never users was 20.70 (8.28–51.84) at BMI 42 kg/m2, compared with never users at normal BMI. The association was not affected by menopausal status (P ¼ 0.34) or histologic type (P ¼ 0.26). Conclusions: HRT use modifies the BMI-endometrial cancer risk association. Impact: These findings support the hypothesis that hyperestrogenia is an important mechanism underlying the BMI-endometrial cancer association, whilst the presence of residual risk in HRT users points to the role of additional systems. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 19(12); 3119–30.

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Background Data on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in remote rural African regions is increasing. Methods We assessed prospectively initial cART in HIV-infected adults treated from 2005 to 2008 at St. Francis Designated District Hospital, Ifakara, Tanzania. Adherence was assisted by personal adherence supporters. We estimated risk factors of death or loss to follow-up by Cox regression during the first 12 months of cART. Results Overall, 1,463 individuals initiated cART, which was nevirapine-based in 84.6%. The median age was 40 years (IQR 34-47), 35.4% were males, 7.6% had proven tuberculosis. Median CD4 cell count was 131 cells/μl and 24.8% had WHO stage 4. Median CD4 cell count increased by 61 and 130 cells/μl after 6 and 12 months, respectively. 215 (14.7%) patients modified their treatment, mostly due to toxicity (56%), in particular polyneuropathy and anemia. Overall, 129 patients died (8.8%) and 189 (12.9%) were lost to follow-up. In a multivariate analysis, low CD4 cells at starting cART were associated with poorer survival and loss to follow-up (HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.15-2.75, p = 0.009; for CD4 <50 compared to >100 cells/μl). Higher weight was strongly associated with better survival (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.51-0.76, p < 0.001 per 10 kg increase). Conclusions cART initiation at higher CD4 cell counts and better general health condition reduces HIV related mortality in a rural African setting. Efforts must be made to promote earlier HIV diagnosis to start cART timely. More research is needed to evaluate effective strategies to follow cART at a peripheral level with limited technical possibilities.

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Background Chronic localized pain syndromes, especially chronic low back pain (CLBP), are common reasons for consultation in general practice. In some cases chronic localized pain syndromes can appear in combination with chronic widespread pain (CWP). Numerous studies have shown a strong association between CWP and several physical and psychological factors. These studies are population-based cross-sectional and do not allow for assessing chronology. There are very few prospective studies that explore the predictors for the onset of CWP, where the main focus is identifying risk factors for the CWP incidence. Until now there have been no studies focusing on preventive factors keeping patients from developing CWP. Our aim is to perform a cross sectional study on the epidemiology of CLBP and CWP in general practice and to look for distinctive features regarding resources like resilience, self-efficacy and coping strategies. A subsequent cohort study is designed to identify the risk and protective factors of pain generalization (development of CWP) in primary care for CLBP patients. Methods/Design Fifty-nine general practitioners recruit consecutively, during a 5 month period, all patients who are consulting their family doctor because of chronic low back pain (where the pain is lasted for 3 months). Patients are asked to fill out a questionnaire on pain anamnesis, pain-perception, co-morbidities, therapy course, medication, socio demographic data and psychosomatic symptoms. We assess resilience, coping resources, stress management and self-efficacy as potential protective factors for pain generalization. Furthermore, we raise risk factors for pain generalization like anxiety, depression, trauma and critical life events. During a twelve months follow up period a cohort of CLBP patients without CWP will be screened on a regular basis (3 monthly) for pain generalization (outcome: incident CWP). Discussion This cohort study will be the largest study which prospectively analyzes predictors for transition from CLBP to CWP in primary care setting. In contrast to the typically researched risk factors, which increase the probability of pain generalization, this study also focus intensively on protective factors, which decrease the probability of pain generalization.

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Soil erosion models and soil erosion risk maps are often used as indicators to assess potential soil erosion in order to assist policy decisions. This paper shows the scientific basis of the soil erosion risk map of Switzerland and its application in policy and practice. Linking a USLE/RUSLE-based model approach (AVErosion) founded on multiple flow algorithms and the unit contributing area concept with an extremely precise and high-resolution digital terrain model (2 m × 2 m grid) using GIS allows for a realistic assessment of the potential soil erosion risk, on single plots, i.e. uniform and comprehensive for the agricultural area of Switzerland (862,579 ha in the valley area and the lower mountain regions). The national or small-scale soil erosion prognosis has thus reached a level heretofore possible only in smaller catchment areas or single plots. Validation was carried out using soil loss data from soil erosion damage mappings in the field from long-term monitoring in different test areas. 45% of the evaluated agricultural area of Switzerland was classified as low potential erosion risk, 12% as moderate potential erosion risk, and 43% as high potential erosion risk. However, many of the areas classified as high potential erosion risk are located at the transition from valley to mountain zone, where many areas are used as permanent grassland, which drastically lowers their current erosion risk. The present soil erosion risk map serves on the one hand to identify and prioritise the high-erosion risk areas, and on the other hand to promote awareness amongst farmers and authorities. It was published on the internet and will be made available to the authorities in digital form. It is intended as a tool for simplifying and standardising enforcement of the legal framework for soil erosion prevention in Switzerland. The work therefore provides a successful example of cooperation between science, policy and practice.

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Objectives: To assess the ability to predict tooth loss on the basis of clinical and radiographic parameters. Methods: Clinical and radiographic data from a five year prospective cohort were studied to identify cause of progressive tooth loss in older subjects. Results: 363 subjects with a baseline mean age of 67.1 years (S.D. + 4.7, range : 60-75), and 51.4% women were studied including 59.5% never smokers, and 33.0% current smokers. At baseline the subjects had, on average, 22.4 teeth (S.D. + 6.4). Self-assessed tooth loss risk was identified by 16.0 % of subjects while 34% of subjects lost teeth. Tooth loss due to caries was found in 24.7% (178 teeth), periodontitis in 15.4% (133 teeth), peri-apical lesions 5.9% (32 teeth), combined periodontal/peri-apical in 3.4% (18 teeth), and teeth irrational to treat in 7.5% (58 teeth) of the subjects. 122 of the extracted teeth (34%) should have been possible to save but were extracted. At year five severe caries, periodontitis, peri-apical lesions, periodontal/peri-apical, irrational to treat were found in 6.3%, 7.2%, 2.6%, 4.6%, and 1.2% of subjects, respectively. Signs of osteoporosis increased by 11.2 % (Klemetti index). Linear regression analysis failed to include smoking habits as being explanatory. Explanatory factors were researcher prediction of extraction needs, subject self assessment of risk and change in ostoporosis status (r2 = 0.39, ANOVA, F=22.6, p< 0.001). Conclusions: Caries and periodontitis are primary causes for extraction. Progressive osteoporosis is associated with tooth loss. Radiographs, and subjects self-assessment of risk for tooth loss are robust predictors.

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BACKGROUND: In the UK, population screening for unmet need has failed to improve the health of older people. Attention is turning to interventions targeted at 'at-risk' groups. Living alone in later life is seen as a potential health risk, and older people living alone are thought to be an at-risk group worthy of further intervention. AIM: To explore the clinical significance of living alone and the epidemiology of lone status as an at-risk category, by investigating associations between lone status and health behaviours, health status, and service use, in non-disabled older people. Design of study: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal in older people. SETTING: Four group practices in suburban London. METHOD: Sixty per cent of 2641 community-dwelling non-disabled people aged 65 years and over registered at a practice agreed to participate in the study; 84% of these returned completed questionnaires. A third of this group, (n = 860, 33.1%) lived alone and two-thirds (n = 1741, 66.9%) lived with someone else. RESULTS: Those living alone were more likely to report fair or poor health, poor vision, difficulties in instrumental and basic activities of daily living, worse memory and mood, lower physical activity, poorer diet, worsening function, risk of social isolation, hazardous alcohol use, having no emergency carer, and multiple falls in the previous 12 months. After adjustment for age, sex, income, and educational attainment, living alone remained associated with multiple falls, functional impairment, poor diet, smoking status, risk of social isolation, and three self-reported chronic conditions: arthritis and/or rheumatism, glaucoma, and cataracts. CONCLUSION: Clinicians working with independently-living older people living alone should anticipate higher levels of disease and disability in these patients, and higher health and social risks, much of which will be due to older age, lower educational status, and female sex. Living alone itself appears to be associated with higher risks of falling, and constellations of pathologies, including visual loss and joint disorders. Targeted population screening using lone status may be useful in identifying older individuals at high risk of falling.