Three essays on the interrelationships among financial restatements, corporate governance, market microstructure and the firm's rate of return

The increase in the number of financial restatements in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in the amount of market capitalization for restated companies. Prior literature did not differentiate between single and multiple restatements announcements. This research investigated the inter-relationships among multiple financial restatements, corporate governance, market microstructure and the firm’s rate of return in the form of three essays by differentiating between single and multiple restatement announcement companies. First essay examined the stock performance of companies announcing the financial restatement multiple times. The postulation is that prior research overestimates the abnormal return by not separating single restatement companies from multiple restatement companies. This study investigated how market penalizes the companies that announce restatement more than once. Differentiating the restatement announcement data based on number of restatement announcements, the results supported the non persistence hypothesis that the market has no memory and negative abnormal returns obtained after each of the restatement announcements are completely random. Second essay examined the multiple restatement announcements and its perceived resultant information asymmetry around the announcement day. This study examined the pattern of information asymmetry for these announcements in terms of whether the bid-ask spread widens around the announcement day. The empirical analysis supported the hypotheses that the spread does widen not only around the first restatement announcement day but around every subsequent announcement days as well. The third essay empirically examined the financial and corporate governance characteristics of single and multiple restatement announcements companies. The analysis showed that corporate governance variables influence the occurrence of multiple restatement announcements and can distinguish multiple restatements announcement companies from single restatement announcement companies.

Genetic Algorithms and Investment Strategies: A Global Perspective

The profitability of momentum portfolios in the equity markets is derived from the continuation of stock returns over medium time horizons. The empirical evidence of momentum, however, is significantly different across markets around the world. The purpose of this dissertation is to: 1) help global investors determine the optimal selection and holding periods for momentum portfolios, 2) evaluate the profitability of the optimized momentum portfolios in different time periods and market states, 3) assess the investment strategy profits after considering transaction costs, and 4) interpret momentum returns within the framework of prior studies on investors’ behavior. Improving on the traditional practice of selecting arbitrary selection and holding periods, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed. The GA performs a thorough and structured search to capture the return continuations and reversals patterns of momentum portfolios. Three portfolio formation methods are used: price momentum, earnings momentum, and earnings and price momentum and a non-linear optimization procedure (GA). The focus is on common equity of the U.S. and a select number of countries, including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that the evolutionary algorithm increases the annualized profits of the U.S. momentum portfolios. However, the difference in mean returns is statistically significant only in certain cases. In addition, after considering transaction costs, both price and earnings and price momentum portfolios do not appear to generate abnormal returns. Positive risk-adjusted returns net of trading costs are documented solely during “up” markets for a portfolio long in prior winners only. The results on the international momentum effects indicate that the GA improves the momentum returns by 2 to 5% on an annual basis. In addition, the relation between momentum returns and exchange rate appreciation/depreciation is examined. The currency appreciation does not appear to influence significantly momentum profits. Further, the influence of the market state on momentum returns is not uniform across the countries considered. The implications of the above findings are discussed with a focus on the practical aspects of momentum investing, both in the U.S. and globally.

Three Essays on the Interrelationships Among Financial Restatements, Corporate Governance, Market Microstructure and the Firm's Rate of Return

The increase in the number of financial restatements in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in the amount of market capitalization for restated companies. Prior literature does not differentiate between single and multiple restatements announcements. This research investigates the inter-relationships among multiple financial restatements, corporate governance, market microstructure and the firm's rate of return in the form of three essays by differentiating between single and multiple restatement announcement companies. First essay examines the stock performance of companies announcing the financial restatement multiple times. The postulation is that prior research overestimates the abnormal return by not separating single restatement companies from multiple restatement companies. This study investigates how market penalizes the companies that announce restatement more than once. Differentiating the restatement announcement data based on number of restatement announcements, the results support for non persistence hypothesis that the market has no memory and negative abnormal returns obtained after each of the restatement announcements are completely random. Second essay examines the multiple restatement announcements and its perceived resultant information asymmetry around the announcement day. This study examines the pattern of information asymmetry for these announcements in terms of whether the bid-ask spread widens around the announcement day. The empirical analysis supports the hypotheses that the spread does widen not only around the first restatement announcement day but around every subsequent announcement days as well. The third essay empirically examines the financial and corporate governance characteristics of single and multiple restatement announcements companies. The analysis shows that corporate governance variables influence the occurrence of multiple restatement announcements and can distinguish multiple restatements announcement companies from single restatement announcement companies.

Petroleum taxation contingent on counter-factual investment behaviour

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank the referees for constructive suggestions. Thanks are due to Norwegian Research Council (Petrosam 2) for financial support.

Petroleum taxation contingent on counter-factual investment behaviour

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank the referees for constructive suggestions. Thanks are due to Norwegian Research Council (Petrosam 2) for financial support.

Effect of conflicting advice on return to work in patients with low back pain

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Capacity Investment in Renewable and Conventional Energy Sources

This dissertation studies capacity investments in energy sources, with a focus on renewable technologies, such as solar and wind energy. We develop analytical models to provide insights for policymakers and use real data from the state of Texas to corroborate our findings.

We first take a strategic perspective and focus on electricity pricing policies. Specifically, we investigate the capacity investments of a utility firm in renewable and conventional energy sources under flat and peak pricing policies. We consider generation patterns and intermittency of solar and wind energy in relation to the electricity demand throughout a day. We find that flat pricing leads to a higher investment level for solar energy and it can still lead to more investments in wind energy if considerable amount of wind energy is generated throughout the day.

In the second essay, we complement the first one by focusing on the problem of matching supply with demand in every operating period (e.g., every five minutes) from the perspective of a utility firm. We study the interaction between renewable and conventional sources with different levels of operational flexibility, i.e., the possibility

of quickly ramping energy output up or down. We show that operational flexibility determines these interactions: renewable and inflexible sources (e.g., nuclear energy) are substitutes, whereas renewable and flexible sources (e.g., natural gas) are complements.

In the final essay, rather than the capacity investments of the utility firms, we focus on the capacity investments of households in rooftop solar panels. We investigate whether or not these investments may cause a utility death spiral effect, which is a vicious circle of increased solar adoption and higher electricity prices. We observe that the current rate-of-return regulation may lead to a death spiral for utility firms. We show that one way to reverse the spiral effect is to allow the utility firms to maximize their profits by determining electricity prices.

Effect of conflicting advice on return to work in patients with low back pain

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Essays on Economics of Entrepreneurship

This dissertation examines three important issues. The first issue is about the human capital investment and entrepreneurship as a career choice. The standard human capital theory shows that firms (employees) never invest in general (firm-specific) human capital of the employee as they do not extract any return from it. However, when entrepreneurship is introduced as a career option for an innovative employee, both firm’s and employee’s human capital investments change. Employee starts investing in his firm-specific human capital to increase the probability to innovate (and to become an entrepreneur). However, the firm uses general human capital investment to reduce the risk of employee’s departure. The second issue is regarding the factors motivating entry regulations reforms and the possible nonlinear effects of entry regulation reforms. The current literature and the policy recommendations assume that these reforms have linear effects on entrepreneurship. Nevertheless, the anecdotal evidence shows that the outcomes of such reforms vary greatly from country to country. To investigate this issue, I collect a sample data on entry regulations and firm creation from World Bank. The empirical analysis indicates that the effect of entry regulation reforms depends on the pre-reform level of bureaucracy in the country. More specifically, while low-bureaucracy countries benefit from entry regulation reforms, high-bureaucracy countries do not benefit. Moreover, the probability of making a reform increases if the country has reformist neighbors, cumbersome entry regulations, high unemployment rate, or low corruption level. The last issue is related to the individual and joint effects of bureaucracy and corruption on different types of entrepreneurs. The current literature investigates these effects only on unified measures of entrepreneurship. However, entrepreneurs are very different in many senses. To address this issue, I collect the necessity-based and opportunity-based entrepreneurship data from Global Entrepreneurship Monitor. The empirical analysis yield two important results: First, bureaucracy has a direct negative (positive) effect on necessity-based (opportunity-based) entrepreneurs. Second, corruption mitigates the effect of bureaucracy for both groups of entrepreneurs. All three chapters offer useful insights and important implications to academics and policymakers.

Return Migration in the Ecuadorian and Bolivian population: motivations, strategies and discourses

This article analyses the motivations for return migration among the Ecuadorians and Bolivians who, after living in Spain, returned to their countries of origin during the economic crisis that started in 2008. From the analysis of 22 interviews in-depth which took place in Ecuador and 38 in Bolivia to women, men and young people from migrant families, this decision-making process is shown to be embedded into a gendered dynamics of relationships. Particular detail is given to affective and economic elements that had an influence on the decision to return, as well as to the strategies deployed to project their readjustment back in origin. Males and females occupy differential positions within the family, work and social circle, their expectations being built in a gendered manner. Despite the fact migration has brought women greater economic power within the family group, their reintegration upon return redefines their role as main managers in the household and the dynamics that allow their social reproduction. Men, for their part, aspire to refresh their role as providers in spite of their frail labour position upon return. Social mobility for females is passed on through generations by a strong investment on education for their daughters and sons, while for males this mobility revolves around setting up family businesses and around their demonstrative abilities.

Manipulation in U.S. REIT Investment Performance Evaluation: Empirical Evidence

We investigate whether Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) managers actively manipulate performance measures in spite of the strict regulation under the REIT regime. We provide empirical evidence that is consistent with this hypothesis. Specifically, manipulation strategies may rely on the opportunistic use of leverage. However, manipulation does not appear to be uniform across REIT sectors and seems to become more common as the level of competition in the underlying property sector increases. We employ a set of commonly used traditional performance measures and a recently developed manipulation-proof measure (MPPM, Goetzmann, Ingersoll, Spiegel, and Welch (2007)) to evaluate the performance of 147 REITs from seven different property sectors over the period 1991-2009. Our findings suggest that the existing REIT regulation may fail to mitigate a substantial agency conflict and that investors can benefit from evaluating return information carefully in order to avoid potentially manipulative funds.

The Consequences of REIT Index Membership for Return Patterns

We study the impact of S&P index membership on REIT stock returns. Given the hybrid nature of REITs, their returns may become more like those of other indexed stocks and less like those of their underlying properties. The existing literature does not offer clear predictions on these potential outcomes. Taking advantage of the inclusion of REITs in major S&P indexes starting in 2001, we find that shared index membership significantly increases the correlation between REIT returns after controlling for the stock characteristics that determine index membership. We also document that index membership enhances the link between REIT stock returns and the performance of the underlying real estate, consistent with improved pricing efficiency. REIT investors appear to be able to enjoy the benefits of improved visibility and liquidity associated with index membership as well as the exposure to underlying real estate markets and the related benefits of diversification.

Impact of reducing investment disincentives on the sustainability of the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery

The Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery is one of Queensland’s oldest commercial fisheries, but is currently economically unsustainable. The fishery is characterized by a mix of large and small vessels, with the small vessels facing different licensing and boat replacement restrictions to the large. Industry have proposed the removal of the current two-for-one boat replacement policy that affects the smaller vessels to encourage investment and replacement by larger vessels, although there is concern by managers about the impact of this on total fishing effort and sustainability of the stocks, despite the existence of a total cap in vessel capacity units. We estimate the impact of removing the boat replacement policy for the smaller vessels on fleet performance and total fishing effort, and find that removing the boat replacement policy is unlikely to result in a substantial increase in fishing effort due to the existence of a vessel unitization scheme.

Essays on Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Investment Dynamics

Understanding how imperfect information affects firms' investment decision helps answer important questions in economics, such as how we may better measure economic uncertainty; how firms' forecasts would affect their decision-making when their beliefs are not backed by economic fundamentals; and how important are the business cycle impacts of changes in firms' productivity uncertainty in an environment of incomplete information. This dissertation provides a synthetic answer to all these questions, both empirically and theoretically. The first chapter, provides empirical evidence to demonstrate that survey-based forecast dispersion identifies a distinctive type of second moment shocks different from the canonical volatility shocks to productivity, i.e. uncertainty shocks. Such forecast disagreement disturbances can affect the distribution of firm-level beliefs regardless of whether or not belief changes are backed by changes in economic fundamentals. At the aggregate level, innovations that increase the dispersion of firms' forecasts lead to persistent declines in aggregate investment and output, which are followed by a slow recovery. On the contrary, the larger dispersion of future firm-specific productivity innovations, the standard way to measure economic uncertainty, delivers the ``wait and see" effect, such that aggregate investment experiences a sharp decline, followed by a quick rebound, and then overshoots. At the firm level, data uncovers that more productive firms increase investments given rises in productivity dispersion for the future, whereas investments drop when firms disagree more about the well-being of their future business conditions. These findings challenge the view that the dispersion of the firms' heterogeneous beliefs captures the concept of economic uncertainty, defined by a model of uncertainty shocks. The second chapter presents a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms subject to the real productivity uncertainty shocks and informational disagreement shocks. As firms cannot perfectly disentangle aggregate from idiosyncratic productivity because of imperfect information, information quality thus drives the wedge of difference between the unobserved productivity fundamentals, and the firms' beliefs about how productive they are. Distribution of the firms' beliefs is no longer perfectly aligned with the distribution of firm-level productivity across firms. This model not only explains why, at the macro and micro level, disagreement shocks are different from uncertainty shocks, as documented in Chapter 1, but helps reconcile a key challenge faced by the standard framework to study economic uncertainty: a trade-off between sizable business cycle effects due to changes in uncertainty, and the right amount of pro-cyclicality of firm-level investment rate dispersion, as measured by its correlation with the output cycles.