815 resultados para Relative risk aversion


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OBJECTIVE The natural course of chronic hepatitis C varies widely. To improve the profiling of patients at risk of developing advanced liver disease, we assessed the relative contribution of factors for liver fibrosis progression in hepatitis C. DESIGN We analysed 1461 patients with chronic hepatitis C with an estimated date of infection and at least one liver biopsy. Risk factors for accelerated fibrosis progression rate (FPR), defined as ≥0.13 Metavir fibrosis units per year, were identified by logistic regression. Examined factors included age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, body mass index (BMI), significant alcohol drinking (≥20 g/day for ≥5 years), HIV coinfection and diabetes. In a subgroup of 575 patients, we assessed the impact of single nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with fibrosis progression in genome-wide association studies. Results were expressed as attributable fraction (AF) of risk for accelerated FPR. RESULTS Age at infection (AF 28.7%), sex (AF 8.2%), route of infection (AF 16.5%) and HCV genotype (AF 7.9%) contributed to accelerated FPR in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study, whereas significant alcohol drinking, anti-HIV, diabetes and BMI did not. In genotyped patients, variants at rs9380516 (TULP1), rs738409 (PNPLA3), rs4374383 (MERTK) (AF 19.2%) and rs910049 (major histocompatibility complex region) significantly added to the risk of accelerated FPR. Results were replicated in three additional independent cohorts, and a meta-analysis confirmed the role of age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, rs738409, rs4374383 and rs910049 in accelerating FPR. CONCLUSIONS Most factors accelerating liver fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C are unmodifiable.

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This guidance paper from the European Psychiatric Association (EPA) aims to provide evidence-based recommendations on early intervention in clinical high risk (CHR) states of psychosis, assessed according to the EPA guidance on early detection. The recommendations were derived from a meta-analysis of current empirical evidence on the efficacy of psychological and pharmacological interventions in CHR samples. Eligible studies had to investigate conversion rate and/or functioning as a treatment outcome in CHR patients defined by the ultra-high risk and/or basic symptom criteria. Besides analyses on treatment effects on conversion rate and functional outcome, age and type of intervention were examined as potential moderators. Based on data from 15 studies (n = 1394), early intervention generally produced significantly reduced conversion rates at 6- to 48-month follow-up compared to control conditions. However, early intervention failed to achieve significantly greater functional provements because both early intervention and control conditions produced similar positive effects. With regard to the type of intervention, both psychological and pharmacological interventions produced significant effects on conversion rates, but not on functional outcome relative to the control conditions. Early intervention in youth samples was generally less effective than in predominantly adult samples. Seven evidence-based recommendations for early intervention in CHR samples could have been formulated, although more studies are needed to investigate the specificity of treatment effects and potential age effects in order to tailor interventions to the individual treatment needs and risk Status.

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We developed a model to calculate a quantitative risk score for individual aquaculture sites. The score indicates the risk of the site being infected with a specific fish pathogen (viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV); infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus, Koi herpes virus), and is intended to be used for risk ranking sites to support surveillance for demonstration of zone or member state freedom from these pathogens. The inputs to the model include a range of quantitative and qualitative estimates of risk factors organised into five risk themes (1) Live fish and egg movements; (2) Exposure via water; (3) On-site processing; (4) Short-distance mechanical transmission; (5) Distance-independent mechanical transmission. The calculated risk score for an individual aquaculture site is a value between zero and one and is intended to indicate the risk of a site relative to the risk of other sites (thereby allowing ranking). The model was applied to evaluate 76 rainbow trout farms in 3 countries (42 from England, 32 from Italy and 2 from Switzerland) with the aim to establish their risk of being infected with VHSV. Risk scores for farms in England and Italy showed great variation, clearly enabling ranking. Scores ranged from 0.002 to 0.254 (mean score 0.080) in England and 0.011 to 0.778 (mean of 0.130) for Italy, reflecting the diversity of infection status of farms in these countries. Requirements for broader application of the model are discussed. Cost efficient farm data collection is important to realise the benefits from a risk-based approach.

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A large deviations type approximation to the probability of ruin within a finite time for the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by diffusion is derived. This approximation is based on the saddlepoint method and generalizes the approximation for the non-perturbed risk process by Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli (Scand Actuar J 1995(2):169–186, 1995). An importance sampling approximation to this probability of ruin is also provided. Numerical illustrations assess the accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation using importance sampling as a benchmark. The relative deviations between saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling are very small, even for extremely small probabilities of ruin. The saddlepoint approximation is however substantially faster to compute.

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BACKGROUND Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the prostate is considered to be the most precise noninvasive staging modality for localized prostate cancer. Multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) dynamic sequences have recently been shown to further increase the accuracy of staging relative to morphological imaging alone. Correct radiological staging, particularly the detection of extraprostatic disease extension, is of paramount importance for target volume definition and dose prescription in highly-conformal curative radiotherapy (RT); in addition, it may affect the risk-adapted duration of additional antihormonal therapy. The purpose of our study was to analyze the impact of mpMRI-based tumor staging in patients undergoing primary RT for prostate cancer. METHODS A total of 122 patients admitted for primary RT for prostate cancer were retrospectively analyzed regarding initial clinical and computed tomography-based staging in comparison with mpMRI staging. Both tumor stage shifts and overall risk group shifts, including prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level and the Gleason score, were assessed. Potential risk factors for upstaging were tested in a multivariate analysis. Finally, the impact of mpMRI-based staging shift on prostate RT and antihormonal therapy was evaluated. RESULTS Overall, tumor stage shift occurred in 55.7% of patients after mpMRI. Upstaging was most prominent in patients showing high-risk serum PSA levels (73%), but was also substantial in patients presenting with low-risk PSA levels (50%) and low-risk Gleason scores (45.2%). Risk group changes occurred in 28.7% of the patients with consequent treatment adaptations regarding target volume delineation and duration of androgen deprivation therapy. High PSA levels were found to be a significant risk factor for tumor upstaging and newly diagnosed seminal vesicle infiltration assessed using mpMRI. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that mpMRI of the prostate leads to substantial tumor upstaging, and can considerably affect treatment decisions in all patient groups undergoing risk-adapted curative RT for prostate cancer.

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PURPOSE To determine the predictive value of the vertebral trabecular bone score (TBS) alone or in addition to bone mineral density (BMD) with regard to fracture risk. METHODS Retrospective analysis of the relative contribution of BMD [measured at the femoral neck (FN), total hip (TH), and lumbar spine (LS)] and TBS with regard to the risk of incident clinical fractures in a representative cohort of elderly post-menopausal women previously participating in the Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk study. RESULTS Complete datasets were available for 556 of 701 women (79 %). Mean age 76.1 years, LS BMD 0.863 g/cm(2), and TBS 1.195. LS BMD and LS TBS were moderately correlated (r (2) = 0.25). After a mean of 2.7 ± 0.8 years of follow-up, the incidence of fragility fractures was 9.4 %. Age- and BMI-adjusted hazard ratios per standard deviation decrease (95 % confidence intervals) were 1.58 (1.16-2.16), 1.77 (1.31-2.39), and 1.59 (1.21-2.09) for LS, FN, and TH BMD, respectively, and 2.01 (1.54-2.63) for TBS. Whereas 58 and 60 % of fragility fractures occurred in women with BMD T score ≤-2.5 and a TBS <1.150, respectively, combining these two thresholds identified 77 % of all women with an osteoporotic fracture. CONCLUSIONS Lumbar spine TBS alone or in combination with BMD predicted incident clinical fracture risk in a representative population-based sample of elderly post-menopausal women.

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Background Several indicators of heightened vulnerability to psychosis and relevant stressors have been identified. However, it has rarely been studied prospectively to what extent these vulnerability factors are in fact more frequently present in individuals with an at-risk mental state for psychosis. Moreover, it remains unknown whether any of these contribute to the prediction of psychosis onset in at-risk mental state individuals. Methods There were 28 healthy controls, 86 first-episode psychosis patients and 127 at-risk mental state individuals recruited within the Basel “Früherkennung von Psychosen” project. Relative frequencies of selected vulnerability factors for psychosis were compared between healthy controls, psychosis patients, those at-risk mental state individuals with subsequent psychosis onset (n = 31) and those without subsequent psychosis onset (n = 55). Survival analyses were applied to determine associations between time to transition to psychosis and vulnerability factors in all 127 at-risk mental state individuals. Results The vulnerability factors/indicators such as “difficulties during school education or vocational training”, “difficulties during employment”, “being single”, “difficulties with intimate relationships” and “being burdened with specific stressful situations” were more commonly found in the at-risk mental state and first-episode psychosis group than in healthy controls. Conclusions At-risk mental state and first-episode psychosis individuals more frequently present with vulnerability factors. Individual vulnerability factors appear, however, not to be predictive for an onset of psychosis.

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On a global basis rotaviruses are the most important agents involved in childhood diarrhea. In developing countries they account for 6% of all diarrheas and 20% of all diarrhea related deaths of children under 5 years of age, with over 1 billion episodes and over 4 million deaths annually. Given the disease burden, there is a need for better understanding the risk factors involved in rotavirus disease, to identify areas of intervention. In order to provide this information, two areas were developed: a review of the literature, examining the causal evidence for rotavirus diarrhea and a case comparison study. The case comparison study analyzed two areas: identifying climate factors and, identifying environmental and behavioral risk factors. The literature review showed that few analytical studies have identified specific risk factors such as home environment, and a winter seasonal trend for temperate areas, but in key areas evidence is contradictory. The case comparison study for climate factors demonstrated that seasonality occurs in a tropical country like Venezuela and that a complex interplay between weather conditions contribute to the seasonal pattern. A positive association between rain fall (OR 4.1); dew point (OR 2.3) and temperature differential during the day (OR 1.4) and, an inverse association with temperature (OR 0.5) and relative humidity (OR 0.8) was found. This information is useful in understanding the seasonal pattern of rotavirus and for planning health care needs. The second analysis demonstrated that environmental variables such as crowding (OR 14.3), contact with someone with an infectious disease (OR 4.9) and animal ownership (OR 2.3) were important. Restricting the analysis to animal owners demonstrated that living In a rural settling (OR 13.8), defecating in inappropriate places (OR 7.2), crowding(4.2) and indoor animals (4.0) are of importance. Behavioral variables identified were: lack of breast feeding (OR 4.0) and visiting when someone was sick (OR 3.4). Biological and demographic variables of importance were: age, with a dose response relationship; undernurishment (OR 11.3) and household per capita monthly income less than US $ 16.30 (OR 8.5). Using a diarrhea compeer group we found that, although some of the previous variables were of importance, no major differences were found. These findings are important in identifying paths for prevention and further research. ^

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This study evaluates the effects of the new Government regulations in regards to the relative value notification of retirement plan options. It looks at how these new regulations will affect retirement plan option utilization and how retirement plan providers will change options in order to minimize risk.

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This article analyzes the exposure to cheating risk of online courses relative to face-to-face courses at a single institution. For our sample of 20 online courses we report that the cheating risk is higher than for equivalent face-to-face courses because of reliance on un-proctored multiple choice exams. We conclude that the combination of a proctored final exam, and strategic use cheating deterrents in the administration of un-proctored multiple choice exams, would significantly reduce the cheating risk differential without substantially altering the assessment design of online instruction.

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Introduction. Several studies have reported a positive association of body mass index (BMI) with multiple myeloma; however, the period of adulthood where BMI is most important remains unclear. In addition, it is well known that body fat is associated with both sex-steroid hormone storage and with increasing insulin levels; therefore, it was hypothesized that the association between obesity and multiple myeloma may be attributed to increased aromatization of androgen in adipose tissue. Objective. The overall objective of this case-control study was to determine whether multiple myeloma cases had higher BMI and greater adult weight gain relative to healthy controls. In addition, we tested the hypothesis that hormone replacement therapy use among women will further increase the association between BMI and risk of multiple myeloma. This study used data from a pilot case-control study at M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC), entitled Etiology of multiple myeloma, directed by Dr. Sara Strom and Dr. Sergio Giralt. Methods. The pilot study recruited a total of 122 cases of histopathologically confirmed multiple myeloma from MDACC. Controls (n=183) were selected from a database of random digit dialing controls accrued in the Department of Epidemiology at MDACC and were frequency matched to the cases on age (±5 years), gender, and race/ethnicity. Demographic and risk factor information were obtained from all participants who completed a self-administered questionnaire. Items included in the questionnaire include demographic information, height and weight at age 25, 40 and current/diagnosis, medical history, family history of cancer, smoking and alcohol use. Statistical analysis. Initial descriptive analysis included Student's t-test and Pearson's chi-squared tests. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to quantify the association between the variables of interest and multiple myeloma. A multivariable model will be developed using unconditional logistic regression. Results. MM cases were 1.79 times (95% CI=0.99-3.32) more likely to have been overweight or obese (BMI > 25 kg/m2) at age 25 relative to healthy controls after controlling for age, gender, race/ethnicty, education and family history of cancer. Being overweight or obese at age 40 was not significantly associated with mutliple myeloma risk (OR=1.42, 95% CI=0.86-2.34) nor was being overweight or obses at diagnosis (OR=1.43, 95% CI=0.78, 2.63). We observed a statistically significant 2-fold increased odds of multiple myeloma in individuals who gained more than 4.7 kg during between 25 and 40 years (OR=1.97, 95% CI=1.15-3.39). When assessing HRT as a modifier of the BMI and multiple myeloma association among women (N=123), no association between obesity and MM status was observed among women who have never used HRT (OR=0.60, 95% CI=0.23-1.61; n=73). Yet among women who have ever used HRT (n=50), being overweight or obese was associated with an increase in MM risk (OR=2. 93, 95% CI=0.81-10.6) after adjusting for age; however, the association was not statistically significant. Significance. This study provides further evidence that increased BMI increases the risk of multiple myeloma. Furthermore, among women, HRT use may modify risk of disease. ^

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The use of exercise electrocardiography (ECG) to detect latent coronary heart disease (CHD) is discouraged in apparently healthy populations because of low sensitivity. These recommendations however, are based on the efficacy of evaluation of ischemia (ST segment changes) with little regard for other measures of cardiac function that are available during exertion. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the association of maximal exercise hemodynamic responses with risk of mortality due to all-causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and coronary heart disease (CHD) in apparently healthy individuals. Study participants were 20,387 men (mean age = 42.2 years) and 6,234 women (mean age = 41.9 years) patients of a preventive medicine center in Dallas, TX examined between 1971 and 1989. During an average of 8.1 years of follow-up, there were 348 deaths in men and 66 deaths in women. In men, age-adjusted all-cause death rates (per 10,000 person years) across quartiles of maximal systolic blood pressure (SBP) (low to high) were: 18.2, 16.2, 23.8, and 24.6 (p for trend $<$0.001). Corresponding rates for maximal heart rate were: 28.9, 15.9, 18.4, and 15.1 (p trend $<$0.001). After adjustment for confounding variables including age, resting systolic pressure, serum cholesterol and glucose, body mass index, smoking status, physical fitness and family history of CVD, risks (and 95% confidence interval (CI)) of all-cause mortality for quartiles of maximal SBP, relative to the lowest quartile, were: 0.96 (0.70-1.33), 1.36 (1.01-1.85), and 1.37 (0.98-1.92) for quartiles 2-4 respectively. Similar risks for maximal heart rate were: 0.61 (0.44-0.85), 0.69 (0.51-0.93), and 0.60 (0.41-0.87). No associations were noted between maximal exercise rate-pressure product mortality. Similar results were seen for risk of CVD and CHD death. In women, similar trends in age-adjusted all-cause and CVD death rates across maximal SBP and heart rate categories were observed. Sensitivity of the exercise test in predicting mortality was enhanced when ECG results were evaluated together with maximal exercise SBP or heart rate with a concomitant decrease in specificity. Positive predictive values were not improved. The efficacy of the exercise test in predicting mortality in apparently healthy men and women was not enhanced by using maximal exercise hemodynamic responses. These results suggest that an exaggerated systolic blood pressure or an attenuated heart rate response to maximal exercise are risk factors for mortality in apparently healthy individuals. ^

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Previous research supports the hypothesis that a "rich" diet (i.e., high in fat and low in fiber) increases the risk of colon cancer. Previous research also supports the hypothesis that physical inactivity increases the risk of colon cancer, perhaps because physical inactivity decreases gut motility, thereby increasing tee time that carcinogens are in contact with the intestinal mucosa. Habitual physical inactivity, combined with rich diet, ordinarily results in chronic energy imbalance and gain in weight, except when energy balance is modified by disease or factors such as cigarette smoking. Cigarette smokers typically stay lean because of effects of smoking on the resting metabolic rate as well as on efficiency of caloric intake and storage. Therefore, if physical inactivity and rich diet do increase the risk of colon cancer, then weight gain during young adulthood should be positively associated with incidence of colon cancer during later life, especially in nonsmokers.^ This hypothesis was investigated in a cohort of 2,059 randomly selected middle-aged men who were employed at the Western Electric Company in Chicago and were free of clinically diagnosed cancer at initial examination in 1958. Body mass index (BMI) in middle age was calculated from measured height and weight at the initial examination. BMI at age 20 was estimated from weight at age 20 as recalled at the initial examination and height as measured at the initial examination. Change in BMI between age 20 and middle age was estimated by subtracting the BMI at 20 from the BMI in middle age. Forty-nine incident cases of colon cancer were detected during 25 years (43,326 person-years) at risk. When stratified by level of change in BMI from age 20 to middle age ($\le$1.9, 2.0-3.9, 4.0-5.9, $\ge$6.0 kg/m$\sp2$), age-adjusted relative hazards of colon cancer in never-smokers were 1.00, 1.22, 2.31, and 5.01, respectively (p for trend = 0.008); corresponding values in ever-smokers were 1.00, 0.95, 0.77, and 0.87, These associations did not change appreciably after further adjustment for BMI at age 20, subscapular-triceps skinfold ratio, cigarette smoking, consumption of alcohol, energy, fat, and calcium.^ We also investigated the hypothesis that the risk of colon cancer was higher in men who were lean at age 20 and became fat by middle age (lean-to-fat) than in men who were fat at age 20 and stayed fat in middle-age (fat-to-fat). "Lean" was defined as BMI $<$24 kg/m$\sp2$ at age 20 and as BMI $<$27.0 kg/m$\sp2$ in middle age. Among never-smokers, in comparison to men who were lean at age 20 and in middle age (lean-to-lean), the age-adjusted relative hazard of colon cancer was 1.43 in the fat-to-fat group (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37-5.52) and 3.36 in the lean-to-fat group (95% CI 1.21-9.37). This investigation provides new results on the magnitude of risk of colon cancer associated with weight gain during adulthood (from age 20 to middle age). This relation was obscured or underestimated in previous studies due to effect-modification by cigarette smoking. Finally, the result supports the idea that a life-style characterized by chronic energy imbalance during young adulthood increases risk of colon cancer. ^

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Little is known about the etiology of colorectal adenomatous polyps, although they are generally considered to be precursor lesions to colorectal carcinoma. To investigate the associations of colorectal adenomatous polyps with dietary intake of calcium, total fat and fiber, a case comparison study was conducted among 98 persons who had first occurrences of adenomatous polyps and 408 persons who did not have colorectal polyps.^ The study population comprised Black, White and Hispanic males and females ages 35 to 80 inclusive, who underwent a sigmoidoscopy or total colonoscopy at collaborating clinics in the Texas Medical Center at Houston between September 1991 and November 1992, and met the eligibility criteria. Case participants were those who had a first-time diagnosis of adenomatous polyps. Comparison participants were individuals who underwent the same diagnostic procedure as the cases and met the same eligibility criteria but had no colorectal polyps. A food frequency questionnaire was administered by interview to obtain information about diet during the 28 days preceding the interview.^ Dietary intake of total fiber was inversely associated with risk of adenomatous polyps. An increment of 15 gm/day in energy-adjusted intake of fiber was associated with a relative odds of 0.39 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.20 to 0.79, after adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index, cigarette smoking, family history of colorectal cancer and intake of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. No association between dietary intake of total fat and risk of adenomatous polyps was observed. When total fat was analyzed as percent of energy, an increment of 15.3% in intake was associated with a relative odds of 0.98 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.53 to 1.80. However, few persons in the study group had intakes below 25% of energy from total fat. An inverse association was observed between energy-adjusted intake of dietary calcium and risk of adenomatous polyps, but this was not statistically significant; an increment of 638 mg/day was associated with a relative odds of 0.77 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.41 to 1.38. Intake of calcium did not appear to strongly modify the association between intake of fat and risk of adenomatous polyps, perhaps because the study group included few people with calcium intake below 400 mg/day.^ These results support the idea that dietary fiber decreases risk of adenomatous polyps. Further studies are needed on the association of dietary calcium and fat with risk of colorectal adenomatous polyps in populations where individuals vary widely in intake of these nutrients. ^

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Introduction: The average age of onset of breast cancer among Hispanic women is 50 years, more than a decade earlier than non-Hispanic white women. Age at diagnosis is an important prognostic factor for breast cancer; younger age at onset is more likely to be associated with advanced disease, poorer prognosis, hormone receptor negative breast tumors, and a greater likelihood of hereditary breast cancer. Studies of breast cancer risk factors including reproductive risk factors, family history of breast cancer, and breast cancer subtype have been conducted predominately in non-Hispanic whites. Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease with the presence of clinically, biologically, and epidemiologically distinct subtypes that also differ with respect to their risk factors. The associations between reproductive risk factors and family history of breast cancer have been well documented in the literature. However, only a few studies have assessed these associations with breast cancer subtype in Hispanic populations. Methods: To assess the associations between reproductive risk factors and family history of breast cancer we conducted three separate studies. First, we conducted a case-control study of 172 Mexican-American breast cancer cases and 344 age matched controls residing in Harris County, TX to assess reproductive and other risk factors. We conducted logistic regression analysis to assess differences in cases and controls adjusted for age at diagnosis and birthplace and then we conducted a multinomial logistic regression analysis to compare reproductive risk factors among the breast tumor subtypes. In a second study, we identified 139 breast cancer patients with a first- or second-degree family history of breast cancer and 298 without a family history from the ELLA Bi-National Breast Cancer Study. In this analysis, we also computed a multinomial logistic regression to evaluate associations between family history of breast cancer and breast cancer subtypes, and logistic regression to estimate associations between breast cancer screening practices with family history of breast cancer. In the final study, we employed a cross-sectional study design in 7279 Mexican-American women in the Mano a Mano Cohort Study. We evaluated associations with family history of breast cancer and breast cancer risk factors including body mass index (BMI), lifestyle factors, migration history, and adherence to American Cancer Society (ACS) guidelines. Results: In the results of our first analyses, reproductive risk factors differed in the magnitude and direction of associations when stratified by age and birthplace among cases and controls. In our second study, family history of breast cancer, and having at least one relative diagnosed at an early age (<50 years) was associated with triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). Mammography prior to receiving a breast cancer diagnosis was associated with family history of breast cancer. In our third study that assessed lifestyle factors, migration history and family history of breast cancer; we found that women with a first-degree family history of breast cancer were more overweight or obese compared with their counterparts without a family history. There was no indication that having a family history contributed to women practicing healthier lifestyle behaviors and/or adhering to the ACS guidelines for cancer prevention. Conclusions: We observed that among Mexican-American women, reproductive risk factors were associated with breast cancer where the woman was born (US or Mexico). Having a family history of breast cancer, especially having either a first- or second-degree relative diagnosed at a younger age, was strongly associated with TNBC subtype. These results are consistent with other published studies in this area. Further, our results indicate that women with strong family histories of breast cancer are more likely to undertake mammography but not to engage in healthier lifestyle behaviors.^