Forest fires: Evaluation of government intervention measures

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relation between government measures, volunteer participation, climate variables and forest fires. A number of studies have related forest fires to causes of ignition, to fire history in one area, to the type of vegetation and weathercharacteristics or to community institutions, but there is little research on the relation between fire production and government prevention and extinction measures from a policy evaluation perspective.An observational approach is first applied to select forest fires in the north east of Spain. Taking a selection of fires with a certain size, a multiple regression analysis is conducted to find significant relations between policy instruments under the control of the government and the number of hectares burn in each case, controlling at the same time the effect of weather conditions and other context variables. The paper brings evidence on the effects of simultaneity and the relevance of recurring to army soldiers in specific days with extraordinary high simultaneity. The analysis also brings light on the effectiveness of twopreventive policies and of helicopters for extinction tasks.

Resting metabolic rate in six- to ten-year-old obese and nonobese children.

The resting metabolic rate (RMR) and body composition of 130 obese and nonobese prepubertal children, aged 6 to 10 years, were assessed by indirect calorimetry and skin-fold thickness, respectively. The mean (+/- SD) RMR was 4619 +/- 449 kJ.day-1 (164 +/- 31 kJ.kg body weight-1 x day-1) in the 62 boys and 4449 +/- 520 kJ.day-1 (147 +/- 32 kJ.kg body weight-1 x day-1) in the 68 girls. Fat-free mass was the best single predictor of RMR (R2 = 0.64; p < 0.001). Step-down multiple regression analysis, with independent variables such as age, gender, weight, and height, allowed several RMR predictive equations to be developed. An equation for boys is as follows: RMR (kJ.day-1) = 1287 + 28.6 x Weight(kg) + 23.6 x Height(cm) - 69.1 x Age(yr) (R2 = 0.58; p < 0.001). An equation for girls is as follows: RMR (kJ.day-1 = 1552 + 35.8 x Weight (kg) + 15.6 x Height (cm) - 36.3 x Age (yr) (R2 = 0.69; p < 0.001). Comparison between the measured RMR and that predicted by currently used formulas showed that most of these equations tended to overestimate the RMR of both genders, especially in overweight children.

Assessment of speed of human locomotion using a differential satellite global positioning system.

PURPOSE: The objective was to explore whether a satellite-based navigation system, global positioning system used in differential mode (DGPS), could accurately assess the speed of running in humans. METHODS: A subject was equipped with a portable GPS receptor coupled to a receiver for differential corrections, while running outdoors on a straight asphalt road at 27 different speeds. Actual speed (reference method) was assessed by chronometry. RESULTS: The accuracy of speed prediction had a standard deviation (SD) of 0.08 km x h(-1) for walking, 0.11 km x h(-1) for running, yielding a coefficient of variation (SD/mean) of 1.38% and 0.82%, respectively. There was a highly significant linear relationship between actual and DGPS speed assessment (r2 = 0.999) with little bias in the prediction equation, because the slope of the regression line was close to unity (0.997). CONCLUSION: the DGPS technique appears to be a valid and inconspicuous tool for "on line" monitoring of the speed of displacement of individuals located on any field on earth, for prolonged periods of time and unlimited distance, but only in specific environmental conditions ("open sky"). Furthermore, the accuracy of speed assessment using the differential GPS mode was improved by a factor of 10 as compared to non-differential GPS.

Heidelberg Retina Tomograph in Glaucoma Case-finding

Purpose: To compare the disease classification using optic nerve head imaging against clinical examination combined with perimetry in the case-finding environment.Methods: During a glaucoma screening event at the University Hospital in Lausanne 148 attendees opted to undergo an extended screening exam consisting of perimetry with Octopus (Haag-Streit, Koeniz, Switzerland), tonometry, gonioscopy, slit-lamp optic nerve head examination and Heidelberg Retinal Tomorgraph (HRT, Heidelberg engineering). Classification criteria of an abnormal clinical exam consisted of a cup to disc ratio > 0.6, other disc abnormality (e.g. notching), closed angles, Van Herrick < ¼ and intraocular pressure >21mmHg. In perimetry a square root loss variance (sLV) >3.0 dB was considered abnormal. Those cases with both an abnormal clinical exam and abnormal perimetric results were considered to be glaucoma suspects. An abnormal HRT exam was a global Moorfields Regression Analysis (MRA) result of "outside normal limits". The results from the worse eye for each instrument are reported.Results: The mean age of the patients was 59.9 years (SD ±14.8years). 46 subjects failed the clinical exam. 55 subjects had sLV>3.0dB. 86 subjects failed one or more of the testing components, 21 subjects failed both the clinical exam and perimetry. Two cases of advanced glaucoma were diagnosed on the day of the event. 20 subjects were referred due to other ocular pathology (10 cataract; 2 AMD; 8 other). 16 subjects were outside normal limits with the HRT, of which 11 failed the clinical exam, 9 failed the perimetric exam and 7 failed all three. HRT had a sensitivity of 33% CI [15%,57%] with a specificity of 93% CI [87%,97%].Conclusions: HRT shows good specificity, however the low sensitivity makes it of limited use in the proposed case finding scenario.

Extra burden of psychosomatic complaints among adolescents suffering from chronic conditions.

OBJECTIVE:: To determine whether there are differences in health perception and health care use among adolescents with psychosomatic symptoms (PS), with chronic conditions (CCs), and with both conditions compared with healthy controls. METHODS:: By using the SMASH02 database, 4 groups were created: youths with PS but no CCs (N = 1010); youths with CCs but no PS (N = 497); youths with both psychosomatic symptoms and chronic conditions (PSCC, N = 213); and youths with neither PS nor CC (control, N = 5709). We used χ tests and analysis of variance to compare each variable between the 4 groups. In a second step, all health and health care use variables were included in a multinomial regression analysis controlling for significant (p < .05) background variables and using the control group as the reference. RESULTS:: Overall, PS and PSCC youths were significantly more likely to rate their health as poor, to be depressed, and to have consulted several times their primary health care provider or a mental health professional than their healthy peers. With the exception of being depressed, PSCC adolescents reported worse health perception and higher health care use than CC and PS. CONCLUSIONS:: Although PS youths do not define PS as a CC, it should be considered as one. Moreover, having PS represents an additional burden to chronically ill adolescents. Health professionals dealing with adolescents must be aware of the deleterious health effects that PS can have on adolescents and have this diagnosis in mind to better target the treatment and improve their management.

Test of four colon cancer risk-scores in formalin fixed paraffin embedded microarray gene expression data.

BACKGROUND: Prognosis prediction for resected primary colon cancer is based on the T-stage Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system. We investigated if four well-documented gene expression risk scores can improve patient stratification. METHODS: Microarray-based versions of risk-scores were applied to a large independent cohort of 688 stage II/III tumors from the PETACC-3 trial. Prognostic value for relapse-free survival (RFS), survival after relapse (SAR), and overall survival (OS) was assessed by regression analysis. To assess improvement over a reference, prognostic model was assessed with the area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. All statistical tests were two-sided, except the AUC increase. RESULTS: All four risk scores (RSs) showed a statistically significant association (single-test, P < .0167) with OS or RFS in univariate models, but with HRs below 1.38 per interquartile range. Three scores were predictors of shorter RFS, one of shorter SAR. Each RS could only marginally improve an RFS or OS model with the known factors T-stage, N-stage, and microsatellite instability (MSI) status (AUC gains < 0.025 units). The pairwise interscore discordance was never high (maximal Spearman correlation = 0.563) A combined score showed a trend to higher prognostic value and higher AUC increase for OS (HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.44 to 2.10, P < .001, AUC from 0.6918 to 0.7321) and RFS (HR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.33 to 1.84, P < .001, AUC from 0.6723 to 0.6945) than any single score. CONCLUSIONS: The four tested gene expression-based risk scores provide prognostic information but contribute only marginally to improving models based on established risk factors. A combination of the risk scores might provide more robust information. Predictors of RFS and SAR might need to be different.

Effect of Bacillus sphaericus Neide on Anopheles (Diptera: Culicidae) and associated insect fauna in fish ponds in the Amazon

ABSTRACTWe analyzed the effects of Bacillus sphaericus on Anopheles larvae and on the associated insect fauna in fish farming ponds. Five breeding sites in the peri-urban area of the city of Manaus, AM, Brazil, were studied. Seven samples were collected from each breeding site and B. sphaericus was applied and reapplied after 15 days. The samples were made at 24 h before application, 24 h post-application and 5 and 15 days post-application. We determined abundance, larval reduction and larval density for Anopheles, and abundance, richness, Shannon diversity index and classified according to the functional trophic groups for associated insect fauna. A total of 904 Anopheles larvae were collected and distributed into five species. Density data and larval reduction demonstrated the rapid effect of the biolarvicide 24 h after application. A total of 4874 associated aquatic insects belonging to six orders and 23 families were collected. Regression analysis of diversity and richness indicated that the application of the biolarvicide had no influence on these indices and thus no effect on the associated insect fauna for a period of 30 days. B. sphaericus was found to be highly effective against the larvae of Anopheles, eliminating the larvae in the first days after application, with no effect on the associated insect fauna present in the fish ponds analyzed.

Global Genomic Diversity of Human Papillomavirus 6 Based on 724 Isolates and 190 Complete Genome Sequences.

Human papillomavirus type 6 (HPV6) is the major etiological agent of anogenital warts and laryngeal papillomas and has been included in both the quadrivalent and nonavalent prophylactic HPV vaccines. This study investigated the global genomic diversity of HPV6, using 724 isolates and 190 complete genomes from six continents, and the association of HPV6 genomic variants with geographical location, anatomical site of infection/disease, and gender. Initially, a 2,800-bp E5a-E5b-L1-LCR fragment was sequenced from 492/530 (92.8%) HPV6-positive samples collected for this study. Among them, 130 exhibited at least one single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), indel, or amino acid change in the E5a-E5b-L1-LCR fragment and were sequenced in full. A global alignment and maximum likelihood tree of 190 complete HPV6 genomes (130 fully sequenced in this study and 60 obtained from sequence repositories) revealed two variant lineages, A and B, and five B sublineages: B1, B2, B3, B4, and B5. HPV6 (sub)lineage-specific SNPs and a 960-bp representative region for whole-genome-based phylogenetic clustering within the L2 open reading frame were identified. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that lineage B predominated globally. Sublineage B3 was more common in Africa and North and South America, and lineage A was more common in Asia. Sublineages B1 and B3 were associated with anogenital infections, indicating a potential lesion-specific predilection of some HPV6 sublineages. Females had higher odds for infection with sublineage B3 than males. In conclusion, a global HPV6 phylogenetic analysis revealed the existence of two variant lineages and five sublineages, showing some degree of ethnogeographic, gender, and/or disease predilection in their distribution. IMPORTANCE: This study established the largest database of globally circulating HPV6 genomic variants and contributed a total of 130 new, complete HPV6 genome sequences to available sequence repositories. Two HPV6 variant lineages and five sublineages were identified and showed some degree of association with geographical location, anatomical site of infection/disease, and/or gender. We additionally identified several HPV6 lineage- and sublineage-specific SNPs to facilitate the identification of HPV6 variants and determined a representative region within the L2 gene that is suitable for HPV6 whole-genome-based phylogenetic analysis. This study complements and significantly expands the current knowledge of HPV6 genetic diversity and forms a comprehensive basis for future epidemiological, evolutionary, functional, pathogenicity, vaccination, and molecular assay development studies.

Fat oxidation in nonobese and obese adolescents: effect of body composition and pubertal development.

OBJECTIVES: To measure postabsorptive fat oxidation (F(ox)) and to assess its association with body composition (lean body mass [LBM] and body fat mass [BFM]) and pubertal development. DESIGN: We studied 235 control (male/female ratio = 116/119; age [mean +/- SD]: 13.1 +/- 1.7 years; weight: 45.3 +/- 10.5 kg; LBM: 34.3 +/- 7.1 kg; BFM: 11.0 +/- 4.5 kg) and 159 obese (male/female ratio = 93/66; age: 12.9 +/- 2.1 years; weight: 76.2 +/- 19.1 kg; LBM: 47.4 +/- 10.9 kg; BFM: 28.8 +/- 9.2 kg) adolescents. Postabsorptive F(ox) was calculated from oxygen consumption, carbon dioxide production, and urinary nitrogen as measured by indirect calorimetry and Kjeldahl's method, respectively. Body composition was determined by anthropometry. RESULTS: Postabsorptive F(ox) (absolute value and percentage of resting metabolic rate) was significantly (p < 0.001) higher in the obese adolescents (76.7 +/- 26.3 gm/24 hours, 42.3% +/- 18.7%) than in the control subjects (40.0 +/- 26.3 gm/24 hours, 28.7% +/- 17.0%), even if adjusted for LBM. F(ox) corrected for BFM was similar in control and in obese children, but was significantly lower in girls compared with boys (control male subjects: 62.1 +/- 29.1 gm/24 hours, control female subjects: 51.6 +/- 28.4 gm/24 hours, obese male subjects: 57.3 +/- 29 gm/24 hour, obese female subjects: 45.0 +/- 28.4 gm/24 hours). BFM and LBM showed a significant positive correlation with F(ox). By stepwise regression analysis the most important determinant of F(ox) was BFM in obese and LBM in control children. There was a significant rise in F(ox) during puberty; however, it was mainly explained by changes in body composition. CONCLUSIONS: Obese adolescents have higher F(ox) rates than their normal-weight counterparts. Both LBM and fat mass are important determinants of F(ox).

Runoff measurement and prediction for a watershed under natural vegetation in central Brazil

This work aimed to measure and analyze total rainfall (P), rainfall intensity and five-day antecedent rainfall effects on runoff (R); to compare measured and simulated R values using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method (CN) for each rainfall event; and to establish average R/P ratios for observed R values. A one-year (07/01/96 to 06/30/97) rainfall-runoff data study was carried out in the Capetinga watershed (962.4 ha), located at the Federal District of Brazil, 47° 52' longitude West and 15° 52' latitude South. Soils of the watershed were predominantly covered by natural vegetation. Total rainfall and runoff for the period were 1,744 and 52.5 mm, respectively, providing R/P of 3% and suggesting that watershed physical characteristics favored water infiltration into the soil. A multivariate regression analysis for 31 main rainfall-runoff events totaling 781.9 and 51.0 mm, respectively, indicated that the amount of runoff was only dependent upon rainfall volume. Simulated values of total runoff were underestimated about 15% when using CN method and an area-weighted average of the CN based on published values. On the other hand, when average values of CN were calculated for the watershed, total runoff was overestimated about 39%, suggesting that CN method shoud be used with care in areas under natural vegetation.

Estimation of percentage body fat in 6- to 13-year-old children by skinfold thickness, body mass index and waist circumference.

We evaluated the accuracy of skinfold thicknesses, BMI and waist circumference for the prediction of percentage body fat (PBF) in a representative sample of 372 Swiss children aged 6-13 years. PBF was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. On the basis of a preliminary bootstrap selection of predictors, seven regression models were evaluated. All models included sex, age and pubertal stage plus one of the following predictors: (1) log-transformed triceps skinfold (logTSF); (2) logTSF and waist circumference; (3) log-transformed sum of triceps and subscapular skinfolds (logSF2); (4) log-transformed sum of triceps, biceps, subscapular and supra-iliac skinfolds (logSF4); (5) BMI; (6) waist circumference; (7) BMI and waist circumference. The adjusted determination coefficient (R² adj) and the root mean squared error (RMSE; kg) were calculated for each model. LogSF4 (R² adj 0.85; RMSE 2.35) and logSF2 (R² adj 0.82; RMSE 2.54) were similarly accurate at predicting PBF and superior to logTSF (R² adj 0.75; RMSE 3.02), logTSF combined with waist circumference (R² adj 0.78; RMSE 2.85), BMI (R² adj 0.62; RMSE 3.73), waist circumference (R² adj 0.58; RMSE 3.89), and BMI combined with waist circumference (R² adj 0.63; RMSE 3.66) (P < 0.001 for all values of R² adj). The finding that logSF4 was only modestly superior to logSF2 and that logTSF was better than BMI and waist circumference at predicting PBF has important implications for paediatric epidemiological studies aimed at disentangling the effect of body fat on health outcomes.

Interaction between widening of diameter of abdominal aorta and cardiovascular risk factors and atherosclerosis burden.

The aim of this study was to investigate influence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and subclinical atherosclerosis (ATS) burden on early stages of abdominal aortic diameter (AAD) widening among adults. 2,052 consecutive patients (P) (39 % women), mean age 52 ± 13 years, were prospectively screened for CVRF, ATS, and AAD. B-mode ultrasound was used to evaluate the largest AAD and to detect carotid and femoral atherosclerotic plaques. Mean AAD was 15.2 ± 2.8 mm. Atherosclerotic plaques were detected in 71 % of patients. Significant univariate correlation between AAD, traditional CVRF, and ABS was found. However, multiple regression analysis showed that only seven of them were significantly and weakly correlated with AAD (R² = 0.27, p < 0.001). On the other hand, a multivariate logistic analysis was used to evaluate CVRF impact on enlarged AAD ≥25 mm (EAAD) as compared to those with AAD <25 mm. These factors did not account for more than 30 % of interaction (R² = 0.30, p = 0.001). Furthermore, despite a large proportion of patients with high number of CVRF, and subclinical ATS, rate of patients with AAD ≥25 mm was low (1 %) and scattered regardless their CHD risk score or ATS burden. In conclusion, these results suggest that although some traditional CVRF and presence of ATS are associated with early stages of EAAD, other determinants still need to be identified for a better understanding of abdominal aortic aneurysm pathogenesis.

Effect of weight loss on resting energy expenditure in obese prepubertal children.

To assess the effect of weight loss on resting metabolic rate (RMR), the energy expenditure of eight obese prepubertal children (age 9 +/- 1 years; weight 48.7 +/- 9.1 kg; BMI 25.3 +/- 3.9) and of 14 age-matched children of normal body weight (age 9 +/- 1 years; weight 28.8 +/- 5.6 kg; BMI 16.5 +/- 1.7) was measured by indirect calorimetry. The obese children were reinvestigated after a mean weight loss of 5.4 +/- 1.2 kg induced by a six-months mixed hypocaloric diet. Before slimming, the obese group showed a higher daily energy intake than the control group (10.40 +/- 3.45 MJ/day vs 7.97 +/- 2.02 MJ/day respectively; P less than 0.05) but a similar value was observed per unit fat-free mass (FFM) (0.315 +/- 0.032 MJ/kgFFM/day vs 0.329 +/- 0.041 MJ/kgFFM/day respectively). The average RMR of the obese children was greater than that of the control group (5217 +/- 531 kJ/day vs 4477 +/- 506 kJ/day) but similar after adjusting for FFM (4728 +/- 3102 kJ/day vs 4899 +/- 3102 kJ/day). Weight loss resulted in a reduction in RMR (5217 +/- 531 kJ/day vs 4874 +/- 820 kJ/day), each kg of weight loss being accompanied by a decrease of RMR of 64 kJ (15.3 kcal) per day. The changes in RMR induced by weight loss paralleled the changes in FFM. No difference was found in average RQ in obese children vs controls (0.85 +/- 0.03 vs 0.87 +/- 0.03 respectively) and in the obese children before and after weight loss (0.87 +/- 0.02).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Poststroke fatigue following minor infarcts: a prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the potential relationship between fatigue following strokes and poststroke mood, cognitive dysfunction, disability, and infarct site and to determine the predictive factors in the development of poststroke fatigue (PSF) following minor infarcts. METHODS: Ninety-nine functionally active patients aged less than 70 years with a first, nondisabling stroke (NIH Stroke Scale score ≤6 in acute phase and ≤3 after 6 months, modified Rankin Scale score ≤1 at 6 months) were assessed during the acute phase and then at 6 (T1) and 12 months (T2) after their stroke. Scores in the Fatigue Assessment Inventory were described and correlated to age, gender, neurologic and functional impairment, lesion site, mood scores, neuropsychological data, laboratory data, and quality of life at T1 and T2 using a multivariate logistic regression analysis in order to determine which variables recorded at T1 best predicted fatigue at T2. RESULT: As many as 30.5% of the patients at T1 and 34.7% at T2 (11.6% new cases between T1 and T2) reported fatigue. At both 6 and 12 months, there was a significant association between fatigue and a reduction in professional activity. Attentional-executive impairment, depression, and anxiety levels remained associated with PSF throughout this time period, underlining the critical role of these variables in the genesis of PSF. There was no significant association between the lesion site and PSF. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that attentional and executive impairment, as well as depression and anxiety, may play a critical role in the development of PSF.

Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: the CHARGE Risk Score Project.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. METHODS: The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke. RESULTS: In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (P<10(-4)). CONCLUSIONS: The single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.