The Ghost of Deflation Past. CEPS Hi-level Brief, 13 December 2013

This note takes a look at the development of monetary aggregates and debt in the G7 (US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan), plus non-G7 euro-area countries, which have an important bearing on the future development of price levels. It also discusses the problem of restoring external competitiveness in the weaker euro-area countries without aggravating their debt burden. The key conclusions are i) monetary and debt developments in the G7 countries point to relatively sluggish growth but do not signal deflation risks and ii) the realignment of ‘internal real exchange rates’ in the euro area will most likely come through a rise in prices in Germany (and a few other stronger countries). The lessons learned in the early 1930s have made a come-back of deflation quite unlikely.

X-ray fluorescence scannings, diatoms, and dinocyst of ODP Site 189-1172

Eocene sediments drilled at the East Tasman Plateau (ETP) exhibit well-defined cycles, high-resolution magnetic stratigraphy, and environmentally-controlled dinoflagellate and diatom distribution patterns. We derive a cyclostratigraphy from the spectral analysis of high-resolution elemental concentration records (Ca, Fe) for this shallow marine time series spanning the middle to early late Eocene (C16n.2n - C21). Changes in carbonate content, the ratio between Gonyaulacoid and Peridinioid dinocysts, and relative abundance of "oligotrophic" diatoms serve as proxies for a high-resolution climatic and sea-level history with high values representing high sea-level stands and decreased eutrophy of surface waters. Changing ratios between high latitude dinocysts versus cosmopolitan species provide clues on sea surface temperature trends and water mass exchange. Our results show that the relatively shallow-water middle Eocene environments of the ETP are influenced by orbitally-forced climatic cycles superimposed on third order relative sea-level changes. Changes in the dominance of Milankovitch frequency at ~38.6 Ma (late Eocene) is related to an initial deepening-step within the Tasmanian Gateway prior to the major deepening during the middle late Eocene (~35.5 Ma). Decreasing sedimentation rates at 38 Ma and 37.2 Ma reflect winnowing associated with sea-level fall. This episode is followed by renewed transgression. Dinocyst distribution patterns indicate high latitude, probably cool temperate surface water conditions throughout, with the exception of a sudden surge in cosmopolitan species near the base of subchron C18.2r, at ~41 Ma; this event is tentatively correlated to the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum.

Comparison of California accident rates for single and double tractor-trailer combination trucks. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.

Railroads; rates and regulations,

Bibliographical foot-notes.

Railroads, rates and regulations,

Mode of access: Internet.

Rates of runoff in the coastal plains of New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland /

Mode of access: Internet.

Effective schools programs : their extent and characteristics : briefing report to the Chairman, Committee on Education and Labor, House of Representatives.

"September 1989."

Evolution of plant water relations research in Australia

Ecophysiological research in Australia has focussed, at different times, on the fundamental similarities in function between all plant species, and on the peculiarity of Australian species with respect to their survival in stressful environments. Early work on plant water relations emphasised the differences between species, and indicated that diverse structural and functional attributes occurred in species from the same water-limited environment. Most recent research has emphasised processes that optimise rates of carbon dioxide exchange, but the understanding of functioning in plants with different morphological arrangements is incomplete. Variation in functions between individual plants and geographic populations in wild species has been examined to a lesser extent. The great variety within and between populations of wild plant species warrants further study for both understanding and more effective management of this biological resource.

Pubovaginal sling versus transurethral Macroplastique for stress urinary incontinence and intrinsic sphincter deficiency: a prospective randomised controlled trial

Objective To compare the pubovaginal sling and transurethral Macroplastique in the treatment of female stress urinary incontinence (SUI) and intrinsic sphincter deficiency (ISD). Design A prospective randomised controlled trial comparing two surgical treatments for SUI and ISD. Setting Tertiary referral urogynaecology unit in Australia. Population Women with SUI and ISD who were suitable for either surgical technique. Methods Forty-five women with SUI and ISD were randomly allocated the pubovaginal sling (n = 22) or transurethral Macroplastique (n = 23). Subjective and objective success rates, patient satisfaction and cost measurements at six months and one year following surgery were the primary outcome measures. A telephone questionnaire survey was performed at a mean follow up period of 62 months (43-71). Main outcome measure Comparison of success rates, complications and costs. Results The symptomatic and patient satisfaction success rates were similar following the sling and Macroplastique with the objective success rate being significantly greater (P < 0.001) following the sling (81% vs 9%). Macroplastique had significantly lower morbidity but was more expensive than the sling (P < 0.001). Response rate at 62 months follow up was 60% in both groups with the sling group reporting better continence success (69% vs 21%) and satisfaction rates (69% vs 29%, P = 0.057). Conclusions The pubovaginal sling was more effective and economical than transurethral Macroplastique for the treatment of SUI and ISD. However, transurethral Macroplastique remains an appropriate treatment in selected cases of SUI and ISD.

Relationship between franking credits and the market risk premium

In a dividend imputation tax system, equity investors have three potential sources of return: dividends, capital gains and franking (tax) credits. However, the standard procedures for estimating the market risk premium (MRP) for use in the capital asset pricing model, ignore the value of franking credits. Officer (1994) notes that if franking credits do affect the corporate cost of capital, their value must be added to the standard estimates of MRP. In the present paper, we explicitly derive the relationship between the value of franking credits (gamma) and the MRP. We show that the standard parameter estimates that have been adopted in practice (especially by Australian regulators) violate this deterministic mathematical relationship. We also show how information on dividend yields and effective tax rates bounds the values that can be reasonably used for gamma and the MRP. We make recommendations for how estimates of the MRP should be adjusted to reflect the value of franking credits in an internally consistent manner.

An adaptive and dynamic dimensionality reduction method for high-dimensional indexing

The notorious "dimensionality curse" is a well-known phenomenon for any multi-dimensional indexes attempting to scale up to high dimensions. One well-known approach to overcome degradation in performance with respect to increasing dimensions is to reduce the dimensionality of the original dataset before constructing the index. However, identifying the correlation among the dimensions and effectively reducing them are challenging tasks. In this paper, we present an adaptive Multi-level Mahalanobis-based Dimensionality Reduction (MMDR) technique for high-dimensional indexing. Our MMDR technique has four notable features compared to existing methods. First, it discovers elliptical clusters for more effective dimensionality reduction by using only the low-dimensional subspaces. Second, data points in the different axis systems are indexed using a single B+-tree. Third, our technique is highly scalable in terms of data size and dimension. Finally, it is also dynamic and adaptive to insertions. An extensive performance study was conducted using both real and synthetic datasets, and the results show that our technique not only achieves higher precision, but also enables queries to be processed efficiently. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2005

Comparison of cellulose solubilisation rates in rumen and landfill leachate inoculated reactors

The aim of this study was to conduct a number of controlled digestions to obtain easily comparable cellulose solubilisation rates and to compare these rates to those found in the literature to see which operational differences were significant in affecting cellulose degradation during anaerobic digestion. The results suggested that differences in volumetric cellulose solubilisation rates were not indicative of the true performance of cellulose digestion systems. When cellulose solubilisation rates were normalised by the mass of cellulose in the reactor at each time step, the comparison of the rates became more meaningful. Cellulose solubilisation was surface area limited. Therefore, changes in the loading rate of cellulose to the reactor altered the volumetric solubilisation rate without changing the mass normalised rate. Comparison of mass normalised solubilisation rates from this study and the literature demonstrated that differences in reactor configuration and operational conditions did not significantly impact on the solubilisation rate whereas the difference in composition of the microbial communities showed a marked effect. This work highlights the importance of using appropriately normalised data when making comparisons between systems with differing operational conditions. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differences in plant function in phosphorus- and nitrogen-limited mangrove ecosystems

Mangrove ecosystems can be either nitrogen (N) or phosphorus (P) limited and are therefore vulnerable to nutrient pollution. Nutrient enrichment with either N or P may have differing effects on ecosystems because of underlying differences in plant physiological responses to these nutrients in either N- or P-limited settings. Using a common mangrove species, Avicennia germinans, in sites where growth was either N or P limited, we investigated differing physiological responses to N and P limitation and fertilization. We tested the hypothesis that water uptake and transport, and hydraulic architecture, were the main processes limiting productivity at the P-limited site, but that this was not the case at the N-limited site. We found that plants at the P-deficient site had lower leaf water potential, stomatal conductance and photosynthetic carbon-assimilation rates, and less conductive xylem, than those at the N-limited site. These differences were greatly reduced with P fertilization at the P-limited site. By contrast, fertilization with N at the N-limited site had little effect on either photosynthetic or hydraulic traits. We conclude that growth in N- and P-limited sites differentially affect the hydraulic pathways of mangroves. Plants experiencing P limitation appear to be water deficient and undergo more pronounced changes in structure and function with relief of nutrient deficiency than those in N-limited ecosystems.

Leading edge forecasting techniques for exchange rate prediction

This paper describes how modern machine learning techniques can be used in conjunction with statistical methods to forecast short term movements in exchange rates, producing models suitable for use in trading. It compares the results achieved by two different techniques, and shows how they can be used in a complementary fashion. The paper draws on experience of both inter- and intra-day forecasting taken from earlier studies conducted by Logica and Chemical Bank Quantitative Research and Trading (QRT) group's experience in developing trading models.