Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUÇÃO: A malaria é uma doença endêmica na região da Amazônia Brasileira, e a detecção de possíveis fatores de risco pode ser de grande interesse às autoridades em saúde pública. O objetivo deste artigo é investigar a associação entre variáveis ambientais e os registros anuais de malária na região amazônica usando métodos bayesianos espaço-temporais. MÉTODOS: Utilizaram-se modelos de regressão espaço-temporais de Poisson para analisar os dados anuais de contagem de casos de malária entre os anos de 1999 a 2008, considerando a presença de alguns fatores como a taxa de desflorestamento. em uma abordagem bayesiana, as inferências foram obtidas por métodos Monte Carlo em cadeias de Markov (MCMC) que simularam amostras para a distribuição conjunta a posteriori de interesse. A discriminação de diferentes modelos também foi discutida. RESULTADOS: O modelo aqui proposto sugeriu que a taxa de desflorestamento, o número de habitants por km² e o índice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH) são importantes para a predição de casos de malária. CONCLUSÕES: É possível concluir que o desenvolvimento humano, o crescimento populacional, o desflorestamento e as alterações ecológicas associadas a estes fatores estão associados ao aumento do risco de malária. Pode-se ainda concluir que o uso de modelos de regressão de Poisson que capturam o efeito temporal e espacial em um enfoque bayesiano é uma boa estratégia para modelar dados de contagem de malária.

Effect of vesicles of dimethyldioctadecylammonium chloride and phospholipids on the rate of decarboxylation of 6-nitrobenzisoxazole-3-carboxylate

Sonicated mixtures of dimethyldioctadecylammonium chloride (DODAC), egg phosphatidylcholine (PC), dimyristoyl phosphatidylcholine (DMPC), and dipalmitoyl phosphatidylcholine (DPPC) were used to analyze vesicle effects on the rate of decarboxylation of 6-nitrobenzisoxazol-3-carboxylic acid (Nboc). Electron microscopic images of the vesicles were obtained with trehalose, a know cryoprotector. Phase diagrams and phase transitions temperatures of the vesicle bilayers were determined. Nboc decarboxylation rates increased in the presence of vesicles prepared with both phospholipids and DODAC/phospholipid mixtures. Quantitative analysis of vesicular effects was done using pseudophase models. Phospholipids catalyzed up to 140-fold while the maximum catalysis by DODAC/lipid vesicles reached 800-fold. Acceleration depends on alkyl chain length, fatty acid insaturation of the lipids, and the DODAC/phospholipid molar ratio. Catalysis is not related to the liquid crystalline-gel state of the bilayer and may be related to the relative position of Nboc with respect to the interface.

Describing fatigue crack growth and load ratio effects in Al 2524 T3 alloy with an enhanced exponential model

The fatigue crack behavior in metals and alloys under constant amplitude test conditions is usually described by relationships between the crack growth rate da/dN and the stress intensity factor range Delta K. In the present work, an enhanced two-parameter exponential equation of fatigue crack growth was introduced in order to describe sub-critical crack propagation behavior of Al 2524-T3 alloy, commonly used in aircraft engineering applications. It was demonstrated that besides adequately correlating the load ratio effects, the exponential model also accounts for the slight deviations from linearity shown by the experimental curves. A comparison with Elber, Kujawski and "Unified Approach" models allowed for verifying the better performance, when confronted to the other tested models, presented by the exponential model. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model to predict R134a refrigerant leakage through the radial clearance of rolling piston compressors

In this paper a non-isothermal two-phase model for oil-R134a refrigerant mixture flow is presented to predict the R134a leakage through the radial clearance of rolling piston compressors. The flow is divided in a liquid single-phase region and in a two-phase region, in which the homogeneous model is used to simulate the flow. The refrigerant leakage is determined using the mixture mass flow rate and the refrigerant mass fraction variation along the flow. The results are obtained for inlet pressures varying from 200 to 700 kPa, inlet temperatures ranging from 40 to 60 degrees C, and minimal clearances between 10 and 60 mu m. The results are firstly compared to existing isothermal model data, showing that there is a significant difference between the leakage flow rates predicted by isothermal and non-isothermal models. Finally, a useful general equation for compressor designers is proposed to calculate the refrigerant leakage for a large range of operation conditions. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved.

Animal models for clinical and gestational diabetes: maternal and fetal outcomes

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise preditiva da densidade mineral óssea em adolescentes brasileiros eutróficos do sexo masculino

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparison of space analysis performed on plaster vs. digital dental casts applying Tanaka and Johnston's equation

OBJETIVO: comparar medidas de tamanhos dentários, suas reprodutibilidades e a aplicação da equação de regressão de Tanaka e Johnston na predição do tamanho dos caninos e pré-molares em modelos de gesso e digital. MÉTODOS: trinta modelos de gesso foram escaneados para obtenção dos modelos digitais. As medidas do comprimento mesiodistal dos dentes foram obtidas com paquímetro digital nos modelos de gesso e nos modelos digitais utilizando o software O3d (Widialabs). A somatória do tamanho dos incisivos inferiores foi utilizada para obter os valores de predição do tamanho dos pré-molares e caninos utilizando equação de regressão, e esses valores foram comparados ao tamanho real dos dentes. Os dados foram analisados estatisticamente, aplicando-se aos resultados o teste de correlação de Pearson, a fórmula de Dahlberg, o teste t pareado e a análise de variância (p < 0,05). RESULTADOS: excelente concordância intraexaminador foi observada nas medidas realizadas em ambos os modelos. O erro aleatório não esteve presente nas medidas obtidas com paquímetro, e o erro sistemático foi mais frequente no modelo digital. A previsão de espaço obtida pela aplicação da equação de regressão foi maior que a somatória dos pré-molares e caninos presentes nos modelos de gesso e nos modelos digitais. CONCLUSÃO: apesar da boa reprodutibilidade das medidas realizadas em ambos os modelos, a maioria das medidas dos modelos digitais foram superiores às do modelos de gesso. O espaço previsto foi superestimado em ambos os modelos e significativamente maior nos modelos digitais.

Studies on the adsorption and kinetics of photodegradation of a model compound for heterogeneous photocatalysis onto TiO2

An investigation was made on the adsorption and kinetics of photodegradation of potassium hydrogenphthalate in an aqueous suspension of TiO2. Two models, Langmuir and Freundlich, were used to describe the adsorption process and the model proposed by Langmuir-Hinshelwood (L-H) was employed to describe the kinetics of the photodecomposition reactions of hydrogenphthalate. The results of the adsorptions were fitted to the models proposed by Langmuir and Freundlich. Adsorption was found to be a function of the temperature, with adsorption capacity increasing from 2.4 to 4.5 mg/g when the temperature rose from 20 to 30 degrees C. The kinetic model indicates that the rate constant, k, of the first order reaction, is high in the 10.0 to 100 mg/l interval, which is coherent with the low value of the adsorption constant, K. The results fitted to the L-H model led to an equation that, within the range of concentrations studied here, theoretically allows one to evaluate the photodegradation rate. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applied models to biodegradation kinetics of lubricant and vegetable oils in wastewater

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Particular solution for anomalous diffusion equation with source term

In literature the phenomenon of diffusion has been widely studied, however for nonextensive systems which are governed by a nonlinear stochastic dynamic, there are a few soluble models. The purpose of this study is to present the solution of the nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation for a model of potential with barrier considering a term of absorption. Systems of this nature can be observed in various chemical or biological processes and their solution enriches the studies of existing nonextensive systems.

Integrable aspects of the scaling q-state Potts models II: finite-size effects

We continue our discussion of the q-state Potts models for q less than or equal to 4, in the scaling regimes close to their critical and tricritical points. In a previous paper, the spectrum and full S-matrix of the models on an infinite line were elucidated; here, we consider finite-size behaviour. TBA equations are proposed for all cases related to phi(21) and phi(12) perturbations of unitary minimal models. These are subjected to a variety of checks in the ultraviolet and infrared limits, and compared with results from a recently-proposed non-linear integral equation. A non-linear integral equation is also used to study the flows from tricritical to critical models, over the full range of q. Our results should also be of relevance to the study of the off-critical dilute A models in regimes 1 and 2. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Reconstruction of interacting dark energy models from parametrizations

Models with interacting dark energy can alleviate the cosmic coincidence problem by allowing dark matter and dark energy to evolve in a similar fashion. At a fundamental level, these models are specified by choosing a functional form for the scalar potential and for the interaction term. However, in order to compare to observational data it is usually more convenient to use parametrizations of the dark energy equation of state and the evolution of the dark matter energy density. Once the relevant parameters are fitted, it is important to obtain the shape of the fundamental functions. In this paper I show how to reconstruct the scalar potential and the scalar interaction with dark matter from general parametrizations. I give a few examples and show that it is possible for the effective equation of state for the scalar field to cross the phantom barrier when interactions are allowed. I analyze the uncertainties in the reconstructed potential arising from foreseen errors in the estimation of fit parameters and point out that a Yukawa-like linear interaction results from a simple parametrization of the coupling.

Mathematical models of generalized diffusion

We discuss in this paper equations describing processes involving non-linear and higher-order diffusion. We focus on a particular case (u(t) = 2 lambda (2)(uu(x))(x) + lambda (2)u(xxxx)), which is put into analogy with the KdV equation. A balance of nonlinearity and higher-order diffusion enables the existence of self-similar solutions, describing diffusive shocks. These shocks are continuous solutions with a discontinuous higher-order derivative at the shock front. We argue that they play a role analogous to the soliton solutions in the dispersive case. We also discuss several physical instances where such equations are relevant.

Bicomplexes and conservation laws in non-Abelian Toda models

A bicomplex structure is associated with the Leznov-Saveliev equation of integrable models. The linear problem associated with the zero-curvature condition is derived in terms of the bicomplex linear equation. The explicit example of a non-Abelian conformal affine Toda model is discussed in detail and its conservation laws are derived from the zero-curvature representation of its equation of motion.

Structure formation in the presence of dark energy perturbations

We study non-linear structure formation in the presence of dark energy. The influence of dark energy on the growth of large-scale cosmological structures is exerted both through its background effect on the expansion rate, and through its perturbations. In order to compute the rate of formation of massive objects we employ the spherical collapse formalism, which we generalize to include fluids with pressure. We show that the resulting non-linear evolution equations are identical to the ones obtained in the pseudo-Newtonian approach to cosmological perturbations, in the regime where an equation of state serves to describe both the background pressure relative to density, and the pressure perturbations relative to the density perturbations. We then consider a wide range of constant and time-dependent equations of state (including phantom models) parametrized in a standard way, and study their impact on the non-linear growth of structure. The main effect is the formation of dark energy structure associated with the dark matter halo: non-phantom equations of state induce the formation of a dark energy halo, damping the growth of structures; phantom models, on the other hand, generate dark energy voids, enhancing structure growth. Finally, we employ the Press-Schechter formalism to compute how dark energy affects the number of massive objects as a function of redshift (number counts).