Temperature trends derived from Stratospheric Sounding Unit radiances: the effect of increasing CO2 on the weighting function

Stratospheric Sounding Units (SSU) on the NOAA operational satellites have been the main source of near global temperature trend data above the lower stratosphere. They have been used extensively for comparison with model-derived trends. The SSU senses in the 15 micron band of CO2 and hence the weighting function is sensitive to changes in CO2 concentrations. The impact of this change in weighting function has been ignored in all recent trend analyses. We show that the apparent trends in global mean brightness temperature due to the change in weighting function vary from about -0.4 K/decade to 0.4 K/decade depending on the altitude sensed by the different SSU channels. For some channels, this apparent trend is of a similar size to the trend deduced from SSU data but ignoring the change in weighting function. In the mid-stratosphere, the revised trends are now significantly more negative and in better agreement with model-calculated trends.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

On the sensitivity of annular mode dynamics to stratospheric radiative timescales

Long decorrelation timescales of the annular mode are observed in the lower stratosphere. This study uses a simple dynamical model, which has been used extensively to study stratosphere-troposphere coupling, to investigate the origin of the long dynamical timescales. Several long runs of the model are completed, with different imposed thermal damping timescales in the stratosphere. The dynamical timescales of the annular mode are found to be largely insensitive to the input thermal damping timescales, producing similar dynamical timescales in all cases below 50hPa. This result suggests that the hypothesis that long timescales in the lower stratosphere are due to long radiative timescales in this region is false.

How robust are observed and simulated precipitation responses to tropical ocean warming?

Robust responses and links between the tropical energy and water cycles are investigated using multiple datasets and climate models over the period 1979-2006. Atmospheric moisture and net radiative cooling provide powerful constraints upon future changes in precipitation. While moisture amount is robustly linked with surface temperature, the response of atmospheric net radiative cooling, derived from satellite data, is less coherent. Precipitation trends and relationships with surface temperature are highly sensitive to the data product and the time-period considered. Data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) produces the strongest trends in precipitation and response to warming of all the datasets considered. The tendency for moist regions to become wetter while dry regions become drier in response to warming is captured by both observations and models. Citation: John, V. O., R. P. Allan, and B. J. Soden (2009), How robust are observed and simulated precipitation responses to tropical ocean warming?

Examination of Relationships between Clear-Sky Longwave Radiation and Aspects of the Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Climate Models, Reanalyses, and Observations

Relationships between clear-sky longwave radiation and aspects of the atmospheric hydrological cycle are quantified in models, reanalyses, and observations over the period 1980-2000. The robust sensitivity of clear-sky surface net longwave radiation (SNLc) to column-integrated water vapor (CWV) of 1-1.5 Wm(-2) mm(-1) combined with the positive relationship between CWV and surface temperature (T-s) explains substantial increases in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere (Q(LWc)) to the surface over the period. Clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLRc) is highly sensitive to changes in aerosol and greenhouse gas concentrations in addition to temperature and humidity. Over tropical ocean regions of mean descent, Q(LWc) increases with T-s at similar to 3.5-5.5 W m(-2) K-1 for reanalyses, estimates derived from satellite data, and models without volcanic forcing included. Increased Q(LWc) with warming across the tropical oceans helps to explain model ensemble mean increases in precipitation of 0.1-0.15 mm day(-1) K-1, which are primarily determined by ascent regions where precipitation increases at the rate expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The implications for future projections in the atmospheric hydrological cycle are discussed

Projected impacts on heat-related mortality from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of changing temperature variability with climate change in assessments of future heat-related mortality. Previous studies have only considered changes in the mean temperature. Here we present estimates of heat-related mortality resulting from climate change for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney. They are based on climate change scenarios for the 2080s (2070-2099) and the temperature-mortality (t-m) models constructed and validated in Gosling et al. (2007). We propose a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality that considers both changes in the mean and variability of the temperature distribution.

Radar studies of the vertical distribution of insects migrating over southern Britain: the influence of temperature inversions on nocturnal layer concentrations

Insects migrating over two sites in southern UK (Malvern in Worcestershire, and Harpenden in Hertfordshire) have been monitored continuously with nutating vertical-looking radars (VLRs) equipped with powerful control and analysis software. These observations make possible, for the first time, a systematic investigation of the vertical distribution of insect aerial density in the atmosphere, over temporal scales ranging from the short (instantaneous vertical profiles updated every 15 min) to the very long (profiles aggregated over whole seasons or even years). In the present paper, an outline is given of some general features of insect stratification as revealed by the radars, followed by a description of occasions during warm nights in the summer months when intense insect layers developed. Some of these nocturnal layers were due to the insects flying preferentially at the top of strong surface temperature inversions, and in other cases, layering was associated with higher-altitude temperature maxima, such as those due to subsidence inversions. The layers were formed from insects of a great variety of sizes, but peaks in the mass distributions pointed to a preponderance of medium-sized noctuid moths on certain occasions.

Temperature- and Pressure-induced Proton Transfer in the 1:1 Adduct Formed between Squaric Acid and 4,4 '-Bipyridine

We have applied a combination of spectroscopic and diffraction methods to study the adduct formed between squaric acid and bypridine, which has been postulated to exhibit proton transfer associated with a single-crystal to single-crystal phase transition at ca. 450 K. A combination of X-ray single-crystal and very-high flux powder neutron diffraction data confirmed that a proton does transfer from the acid to the base in the high-temperature form. Powder X-ray diffraction measurements demonstrated that the transition was reversible but that a significant kinetic energy barrier must be overcome to revert to the original structure. Computational modeling is consistent with these results. Modeling also revealed that, while the proton transfer event would be strongly discouraged in the gas phase, it occurs in the solid state due to the increase in charge state of the molecular ions and their arrangement inside the lattice. The color change is attributed to a narrowing of the squaric acid to bipyridine charge-transfer energy gap. Finally, evidence for the possible existence of two further phases at high pressure is also presented.

Can desert dust explain the outgoing longwave radiation anomaly over the Sahara during July 2003?

Measurements of the top‐of‐the‐atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for July 2003 from Meteosat‐7 are used to assess the performance of the numerical weather prediction version of the Met Office Unified Model. A significant difference is found over desert regions of northern Africa where the model emits too much OLR by up to 35 Wm−2 in the monthly mean. By cloud‐screening the data we find an error of up to 50 Wm−2 associated with cloud‐free areas, which suggests an error in the model surface temperature, surface emissivity, or atmospheric transmission. By building up a physical model of the radiative properties of mineral dust based on in situ, and surface‐based and satellite remote sensing observations we show that the most plausible explanation for the discrepancy in OLR is due to the neglect of mineral dust in the model. The calculations suggest that mineral dust can exert a longwave radiative forcing by as much as 50 Wm−2 in the monthly mean for 1200 UTC in cloud‐free regions, which accounts for the discrepancy between the model and the Meteosat‐7 observations. This suggests that inclusion of the radiative effects of mineral dust will lead to a significant improvement in the radiation balance of numerical weather prediction models with subsequent improvements in performance.

Water vapor variability in the tropics and its links to dynamics and precipitation

The distribution and variability of water vapor and its links with radiative cooling and latent heating via precipitation are crucial to understanding feedbacks and processes operating within the climate system. Column-integrated water vapor (CWV) and additional variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) are utilized to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in tropical water vapor over the period 1979–2001. The moisture variability is partitioned between dynamical and thermodynamic influences and compared with variations in precipitation provided by the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The spatial distribution of CWV is strongly determined by thermodynamic constraints. Spatial variability in CWV is dominated by changes in the large-scale dynamics, in particular associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Trends in CWV are also dominated by dynamics rather than thermodynamics over the period considered. However, increases in CWV associated with changes in temperature are significant over the equatorial east Pacific when analyzing interannual variability and over the north and northwest Pacific when analyzing trends. Significant positive trends in CWV tend to predominate over the oceans while negative trends in CWV are found over equatorial Africa and Brazil. Links between changes in CWV and vertical motion fields are identified over these regions and also the equatorial Atlantic. However, trends in precipitation are generally incoherent and show little association with the CWV trends. This may in part reflect the inadequacies of the precipitation data sets and reanalysis products when analyzing decadal variability. Though the dynamic component of CWV is a major factor in determining precipitation variability in the tropics, in some regions/seasons the thermodynamic component cancels its effect on precipitation variability.

A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus

The radiative forcing due to a distinct pattern of persistent contrails that form into contrail-induced cirrus near and over the UK is investigated in detail for a single case study during March 2009. The development of the contrail-induced cirrus is tracked using a number of high-resolution polar orbiting and lower-resolution geostationary satellite instruments and is found to persist for a period of around 18 h, and at its peak, it covers over 50,000 km2. The shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcing of the contrail-induced cirrus is estimated using a combination of geostationary satellite instruments, numerical weather prediction models, and surface observation sites. As expected, the net radiative effect is a relatively small residual of the much stronger but opposing SW and LW effects, locally totaling around 10 W m−2 during daylight hours and 30 W m−2 during nighttime. A simple estimate indicates that this single localized event may have generated a global-mean radiative forcing of around 7% of recent estimates of the persistent contrail radiative forcing due to the entire global aircraft fleet on a diurnally averaged basis. A single aircraft operating in conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation appears to exert a contrail-induced radiative forcing some 5000 times greater (in W m−2 km−1) than recent estimates of the average persistent contrail radiative forcing from the entire civil aviation fleet. This study emphasizes the need to establish whether similar events are common or highly unusual for a confident assessment of the total climate effect of aviation to be made.