Sustainable and equitable retirement in a life course perspective

We argue that long term sustainability of social security systems requires not only better equilibrium between the proportion in retirement and in employment but also an equitable distribution of the additional financial burden that aging inevitably will require. We examine how a proportional fixed ratios model of burden sharing between the aged and non-aged will establish inter-generational equity. Additionally we address the question of intra-generational equity and argue that the positive association between lifetime income and longevity requires more progressive financing of pensions and of care for the elderly.

Experimental evidence that adult antipredator behaviour is heritable and not influenced by behavioural copying in a wild bird.

Knowledge of the relative importance of genetics and behavioural copying is crucial to appraise the evolvability of behavioural consistencies. Yet, genetic and non-genetic factors are often deeply intertwined, and experiments are required to address this issue. We investigated the sources of variation of adult antipredator behaviour in the Alpine swift (Apus melba) by making use of long-term behavioural observations on parents and cross-fostered offspring. By applying an 'animal model' approach to observational data, we show that antipredator behaviour of adult Alpine swifts was significantly repeatable over lifetime (r = 0.273) and heritable (h(2) = 0.146). Regression models also show that antipredator behaviours differed between colonies and sexes (females were more tame), and varied with the hour and year of capture. By applying a parent-offspring regression approach to 59 offspring that were exchanged as eggs or hatchlings between pairs of nests, we demonstrate that offspring behaved like their biological parents rather than like their foster parents when they were adults themselves. Those findings provide strong evidence that antipredator behaviour of adult Alpine swifts is shaped by genetics and/or pre-hatching maternal effects taking place at conception but not by behavioural copying.

Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

Formação Profissional e Empreendedorismo: O Caso do Centro de Juventude de S. Vicente

À medida que oportunidades de emprego para toda a vida escasseiam, altas taxas de desemprego têm despertado o interesse por empreendedorismo. A salvação passa a ser a empregabilidade, sendo a educação empreendedora apontada como uma das áreas chave para fazer com que todos descubram potencialidades inovadoras e criativas despertando comportamentos empreendedores. A inserção dos jovens no mercado de trabalho é neste momento um dos maiores problemas da ilha de São Vicente com 23,3% de desempregados numa população maioritariamente jovem (65,7%) segundo INE (Instituto Nacional de Estatística). É neste contexto marcado por instabilidade e incerteza, que o Centro de Juventude de São Vicente tem vindo a promover a formação profissional oferecendo cursos de curta duração visando a inserção sócio económica de jovens carenciados e em situação de risco. Com base num suporte teórico que revela a possibilidade de desenvolver o espírito empreendedor através do ensino, optou-se pela metodologia de estudo de caso para analisar de que forma o Centro de Juventude de São Vicente contribui na formação para a empregabilidade e/ou no despertar do espírito empreendedor. Os resultados revelam que o Centro está dando os primeiros passos nesse sentido e que terá um papel importante no estímulo e incentivo ao trabalho por conta própria através da formação profissional, desde que em estreita articulação com o IEFP (Instituto do Emprego e Formação Profissional) e o mercado de trabalho. Visando uma mudança de mentalidade tem propiciado aos jovens um contexto de estímulo à iniciativa sobretudo através do apoio psicológico e na busca de financiamento. While opportunities for lifetime jobs are decreasing, high unemployment rates have aroused the interest in entrepreneurship. Employability will be the solution, being entrepreneurial education pointed out as one of the key factors in finding out innovative and creative potentialities as well as in stimulating entrepreneurial behaviours. Inserting young people in the labour market is, at present, one of the biggest problems in S.Vicente, an island with 23,3% of unemployed in a population mostly constituted by young people (65,7%), according to INE (National Institute of Statistics). In this context characterised by instability and uncertainty, the Youth Centre in S.Vicente has been promoting professional training through short courses aimed at socioeconomic insertion of young people in vulnerable and risky situations. Based on a theoretical support which points out the possibility of developing entrepreneurial spirit through education, the case study methodology was selected in order to analyse how the Youth Centre contributes through its training courses to employability and/or entrepreneurial spirit. The results obtained indicate that the Centre is taking its first steps in this direction and will play an important role in encouraging self-employment, through professional training. This has to be carried out in close relationship with both IEFP (Institute of Employment and Professional Training) and the labour market. With a view to changing mentalities, the Centre has been providing young people with a context capable of stimulating initiative, especially by supplying psychological support and helping them find financing sources.

On the number of independent cultural traits carried by individuals and populations.

In species subject to individual and social learning, each individual is likely to express a certain number of different cultural traits acquired during its lifetime. If the process of trait innovation and transmission reaches a steady state in the population, the number of different cultural traits carried by an individual converges to some stationary distribution. We call this the trait-number distribution. In this paper, we derive the trait-number distributions for both individuals and populations when cultural traits are independent of each other. Our results suggest that as the number of cultural traits becomes large, the trait-number distributions approach Poisson distributions so that their means characterize cultural diversity in the population. We then analyse how the mean trait number varies at both the individual and population levels as a function of various demographic features, such as population size and subdivision, and social learning rules, such as conformism and anti-conformism. Diversity at the individual and population levels, as well as at the level of cultural homogeneity within groups, depends critically on the details of population demography and the individual and social learning rules.

Phenotypic variability of retinocytomas: preregression and postregression growth patterns.

AIM: To describe the incidence of retinocytomas, their variability at presentation and their growth patterns both before and after regression.¦METHODS: Medical notes of the 525 patients of the Jules-Gonin Eye Hospital Retinoblastoma Clinic between 1964 and 2008 were reviewed and the charts of 36 patients with retinocytomas and/or phthisis bulbi were selected.¦RESULTS: The proportion of patients with retinocytomas and/or phthisis bulbi was 3.2%. The mean age at diagnosis was 28.7±17 years. Five tumours presented a cystic pattern (5.8%). Evidence of aggressive exophytic disease prior to spontaneous regression was documented in two eyes, and of invasive endophytic disease (regressed vitreous seeding or internal limiting membrane disruption) in three eyes. Twenty patients were followed with a mean follow-up of 44±60 months. Tumour growth was observed in 16% cases, benign cystic enlargement in 4% and malignant transformation in 12%.¦CONCLUSION: This large study of retinocytomas substantially expands the published features of retinocytoma by describing the cystic nature of some retinocytomas as well as clinical characteristics of the endophytic and exophytic preregression growth patterns. The authors report two different patterns of reactivation: benign cystic enlargement and malignant transformation with or without cystic growth. Higher than previously reported frequency of growth and possible life-threatening complications impose close lifetime follow-up of retinocytoma patients.

Orius insidiosus (Say, 1832) (Heteroptera, Anthocoridae): sensibilidade ao fotoperíodo e diapausa reprodutiva?

The minute pirate bugs, Orius spp., are known as predators on several pests as thrips, aphids, spider mites and whiteflies. Orius insidiosus is an important thrips predator, commercially used around the world. However, one of the main problems on biological control of thrips in temperate regions is the occurrence of reproductive diapause in Orius species. This characteristic promotes the interruption of biological control strategies when predators are exposed to short photoperiods. This research had as objective to evaluate the influence of different photoperiod conditions on eggs/nymphs and adults of O. insidiosus in laboratory. The trials were carried out through the combination of eggs/nymphs and adults reared under the photoperiods 10L:14D; 11L:13D; 12L:12D and 13L:11D, at 25±2ºC and 70±10% RH. The predators were maintained during their pre-imaginal development time under one of the photoperiods and, after being emerged as adults transferred to another photoperiod regime. The predator had a tendency to present longer development time under photoperiod 13L:11D. There was no influence of the different photoperiods conditions on the reproduction of O. insidiosus. The females laid eggs normally during all their lifetime. O. insidiosus is not sensitive to photoperiod evaluated and do not enter in reproductive diapause.

Welcome To Medicare Physical Exam, September 2007

Medicare will cover a one-time preventive physical exam within the first six months that you have Part B. This benefit is for all Medicare beneficiaries including those under age 65. How much does the exam cost? You pay 20% of the Medicare approved amount after you meet the yearly Part B deductible ($131 for 2007). Since this exam may be your first Medicare-covered service, you could meet your entire Part B deductible for the year. Medicare will cover the exam if performed by a physician, physician assistant, nurse practitioner, or clinical nurse specialist. What should I expect during the exam? The “Welcome to Medicare Physical” will include the following: 1. A review of your medical and social history. 2. A review of your potential risk factors for depression. 3. A review of your functional ability and level of safety. 4. Blood pressure, height, weight and vision test 5. An electrocardiogram (EKG) 6. Education and counseling on the above five items. 7. A written plan explaining screenings and other recommended preventive services. All seven elements must be documented in order for the physical to be covered by Medicare. The exam does not include clinical laboratory tests. Medicare will pay for a one-time ultrasound screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for beneficiaries who are at risk (has a family history or a man age 65 to 75 who has smoked at least 100 cigarettes in his lifetime.) Only Medicare beneficiaries who receive a referral from the Welcome to Medicare physical exam will be covered for this benefit. There is no Part B deductible, but you or your supplemental insurance will be responsible for the coinsurance. What should I take to the exam? You should bring the following when you go to your “Welcome to Medicare” physical exam: • Medical records, including immunization records (if you are seeing a doctor for the first time) • Family health history • A list of current prescription drugs, how often you take them, and why.

Inbreeding in the greater white-toothed shrew, Crocidura russula.

We combined mark-and-recapture studies with genetic techniques of parentage assignment to evaluate the interactions between mating, dispersal, and inbreeding, in a free-ranging population of Crocidura russula. We found a pattern of limited and female-biased dispersal, followed by random mating within individual neighborhoods. This results in significant inbreeding at the population level: mating among relatives occurs more often than random, and F(IT) analyses reveal significant deficits in heterozygotes. However, related mating partners were not less fecund, and inbred offspring had no lower lifetime reproductive output. Power analyses show these negative results to be quite robust. Absence of phenotypic evidence of inbreeding depression might result from a history of purging: local populations are small and undergo disequilibrium gene dynamics. Dispersal is likely caused by local saturation and (re)colonization of empty breeding sites, rather than inbreeding avoidance.

Cost-effectiveness of low-molecular-weight heparin for treatment of pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) appears to be safe and effective for treating pulmonary embolism (PE), but its cost-effectiveness has not been assessed. METHODS: We built a Markov state-transition model to evaluate the medical and economic outcomes of a 6-day course with fixed-dose LMWH or adjusted-dose unfractionated heparin (UFH) in a hypothetical cohort of 60-year-old patients with acute submassive PE. Probabilities for clinical outcomes were obtained from a meta-analysis of clinical trials. Cost estimates were derived from Medicare reimbursement data and other sources. The base-case analysis used an inpatient setting, whereas secondary analyses examined early discharge and outpatient treatment with LMWH. Using a societal perspective, strategies were compared based on lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. RESULTS: Inpatient treatment costs were higher for LMWH treatment than for UFH (dollar 13,001 vs dollar 12,780), but LMWH yielded a greater number of QALYs than did UFH (7.677 QALYs vs 7.493 QALYs). The incremental costs of dollar 221 and the corresponding incremental effectiveness of 0.184 QALYs resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of dollar 1,209/QALY. Our results were highly robust in sensitivity analyses. LMWH became cost-saving if the daily pharmacy costs for LMWH were < dollar 51, if > or = 8% of patients were eligible for early discharge, or if > or = 5% of patients could be treated entirely as outpatients. CONCLUSION: For inpatient treatment of PE, the use of LMWH is cost-effective compared to UFH. Early discharge or outpatient treatment in suitable patients with PE would lead to substantial cost savings.

The intra-generational redistributive effects of social security

This paper provides a quantitative evaluation of the intra--cohortredistributive elements of the United States social security system in thecontext of a computable general equilibrium model. I determine how thewell--being of individuals that differ across {\sl gender, race} and {\sl education}is affected by government social security policy. I find that females, whitesand non--college graduates stand less to gain (lose) from reductions(increases) in the size of social security than males, non--whites andcollege graduates, respectively. Differences in mortality risk and laborproductivity translate into differences in the magnitudes of capitalaccumulation and labor supply distortions, that are responsible for theobserved welfare difference between types. Results imply that the currentprogram is lifetime progressive across gender and education, yet lifetimeregressive across race.

Epidemiologic study of low back pain in 1398 Swiss conscripts between 1985 and 1992.

The two objectives of this study, based on a sample of 1398 Swiss army conscripts born in 1966 who participated in a first study in 1985, were to measure the prevalence of low back pain (LBP) at age 26 years and its incidence between 19 and 26 years and to analyze the relationship between LBP and occupational, nonoccupational, or physical risk factors. The lifetime prevalence of LBP at age 26 was 69.1% and the incidence of LBP between 19 and 26, 44.7%. A history of LBP or a pathological physical examination result at age 19 did not predict the prevalence or the incidence at age 26. Standing, twisting, vibration, and heavy work were significantly associated with chronic LBP and/or the 1-year prevalence of LBP at age 26 (P < 0.05). The evolution of sport and leisure-time activities from age 19 to 26 did not differ between people with or without LBP. The ergonomic organization of the workplace should represent a major element of future strategies to prevent LBP.

Psychological profile of adolescents with a kidney transplant.

To describe the psychological profile of renal transplant adolescents compared to healthy peers and to adolescents with CKD, three groups of adolescents aged 12-18 yr were selected: TX, CX, and adolescents with CKD. Psychiatric symptoms and disorders were evaluated through direct interviews (K-SADS-PL) and self-report questionnaires (YSR and CBCL). Forty TX (14 LRD and 26 DD transplant recipients), 40 CX and 20 CKD were included. Twelve of 40 (30%) TX, three of 20 (15%) CKD, and three of 40 (7.5%) CX had a history of learning difficulties (p = 0.03). Compared to CX, TX had lower total YSR competencies score (p = 0.028) and lower total CBCL competencies score (p = 0.003). Twenty-six of 40 (65%) TX, 12 of 20 (60%) CKD and 15 of 40 (37.5%) CX (p = 0.038) met DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for lifetime psychiatric disorder, with rates of depressive disorder of 35% among TX and CKD compared to 15.2% among CX (p = 0.043). Eight of 40 (20%) TX had a history of simple phobia. Nine of 40 (22.5%) TX met diagnostic criteria for ADHD as compared to one of 20 (5%) CKD and three of 40 (7.5%) CX. In the TX group, we found no significant differences in educational and psychiatric variables between LRD and DD. In conclusion, we found a high prevalence of psychiatric morbidity (depression, phobia, ADHD), educational impairment and social competence problems in the TX group. CKD scored in between TX and CX on most measures.

The marginal propensity to spend on adult children

We examine how much of an extra dollar of parental lifetime resources willultimately be passed on to adult children in the form of inter vivostransfers and bequests. We infer bequests from the stock of wealth late inlife. We use mortality rates and age specific estimates of the response oftransfers and wealth to permanent income to compute the expected presentdiscounted values of these responses to permanent income. Our estimatesimply parents pass on between 2 and 3 cents out of an extra dollar ofexpected lifetime resources in bequests and about 2 cents in transfers.The estimates increase with parental income and are smaller for nonwhites.They imply that about 15 percent of the effect of parental income onlifetime resources of adult children is through transfers and bequestsand about 85 percent is through the intergenerational correlation inearnings, although these estimates are sensitive to assumptions about theintergenerational earnings correlation, taxes, and the number of children.We compare our estimates to the implications of alternative computablebenchmark models of savings behavior in order to assess the likelyimportance of intended bequests for the wealth/income relationship.

Social security in theory and practice (I): Facts and political theories

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forcescreate and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? We document some of the internationally and historically common features of Social Security programs including explicit and implicit taxes on labor supply, pay-as-you-go features, intergenerational redistribution, benefits which areincreasing functions of lifetime earnings and not means-tested. We partition theories of Social Security into three groups: "political", "efficiency" and "narrative" theories. We explore three political theories in this paper: the majority rational voting model (with its two versions: "the elderly as the leaders of a winning coalition with the poor" and the "once and for all election" model), the "time-intensive model of political competition" and the "taxpayer protection model". Each of the explanations is compared with the international and historical facts. A companion paper explores the "efficiency" and "narrative" theories, and derives implicationsof all the theories for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan.