An empirical investigation of the effects of rounding on the SPF probabilities of decine and output growth histograms

I consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future, as well as their reported output growth probability distributions. I make various plausible assumptions about respondents’ rounding practices, and show how these impinge upon the apparent mismatch between probability forecasts of a decline in output and the probabilities of this event implied by the annual output growth histograms. I find that rounding accounts for about a quarter of the inconsistent pairs of forecasts.

Are professional macroeconomic forecasters able to do better than forecasting trends?

This paper investigates whether survey forecasters are able to make more accurate forecasts than simply supposing that the future values of the variable will move monotonically to the long-run expectation. We consider the forecasts individually, and the consensus forecasts. Consensus survey forecasts are able to do so to varying degrees depending on the variable, but this ability is largely limited to forecasts of the current quarter.

Real-time factor model forecasting and the effects of instability

Factor forecasting models are shown to deliver real-time gains over autoregressive models for US real activity variables during the recent period, but are less successful for nominal variables. The gains are largely due to the Financial Crisis period, and are primarily at the shortest (one quarter ahead) horizon. Excluding the pre-Great Moderation years from the factor forecasting model estimation period (but not from the data used to extract factors) results in a marked fillip in factor model forecast accuracy, but does the same for the AR model forecasts. The relative performance of the factor models compared to the AR models is largely unaffected by whether the exercise is in real time or is pseudo out-of-sample.

Computerised therapies for anxiety and depression in children and young people: a systematic review and meta-anaylsis

One quarter of children and young people (CYP) experience anxiety and/or depression before adulthood, but treatment is sometimes unavailable or inadequate. Self-help interventions may have a role in augmenting treatment and this work aimed to systematically review the evidence for computerised anxiety and depression interventions in CYP aged 5–25 years old. Databases were searched for randomised controlled trials and 27 studies were identified. For young people (12–25 years) with risk of diagnosed anxiety disorders or depression, computerised CBT (cCBT) had positive effects for symptoms of anxiety (SMD −0.77, 95% CI −1.45 to −0.09, k = 6, N = 220) and depression (SMD −0.62, 95% CI −1.13 to −0.11, k = 7, N = 279). In a general population study of young people, there were small positive effects for anxiety (SMD −0.15, 95% CI −0.26 to −0.03; N = 1273) and depression (SMD −0.15, 95% CI −0.26 to −0.03; N = 1280). There was uncertainty around the effectiveness of cCBT in children (5–11 years). Evidence for other computerised interventions was sparse and inconclusive. Computerised CBT has potential for treating and preventing anxiety and depression in clinical and general populations of young people. Further program development and research is required to extend its use and establish its benefit in children.

Wave spectra assimilation in typhoon wave modeling for the East China Sea

The East China Sea is a hot area for typhoon waves to occur. A wave spectra assimilation model has been developed to predict the typhoon wave more accurately and operationally. This is the first time where wave data from Taiwan have been used to predict typhoon wave along the mainland China coast. The two-dimensional spectra observed in Taiwan northeast coast modify the wave field output by SWAN model through the technology of optimal interpolation (OI) scheme. The wind field correction is not involved as it contributes less than a quarter of the correction achieved by assimilation of waves. The initialization issue for assimilation is discussed. A linear evolution law for noise in the wave field is derived from the SWAN governing equations. A two-dimensional digital low-pass filter is used to obtain the initialized wave fields. The data assimilation model is optimized during the typhoon Sinlaku. During typhoons Krosa and Morakot, data assimilation significantly improves the low frequency wave energy and wave propagation direction in Taiwan coast. For the far-field region, the assimilation model shows an expected ability of improving typhoon wave forecast as well, as data assimilation enhances the low frequency wave energy. The proportion of positive assimilation indexes is over 81% for all the periods of comparison. The paper also finds that the impact of data assimilation on the far-field region depends on the state of the typhoon developing and the swell propagation direction.

Supporting local diversity of habitats and species on farmland: a comparison of three wildlife-friendly schemes

Restoration and maintenance of habitat diversity have been suggested as conservation priorities in farmed landscapes, but how this should be achieved and at what scale are unclear. This study makes a novel comparison of the effectiveness of three wildlife-friendly farming schemes for supporting local habitat diversity and species richness on 12 farms in England. The schemes were: (i) Conservation Grade (Conservation Grade: a prescriptive, non-organic, biodiversity-focused scheme), (ii) organic agriculture and (iii) a baseline of Entry Level Stewardship (Entry Level Stewardship: a flexible widespread government scheme). Conservation Grade farms supported a quarter higher habitat diversity at the 100-m radius scale compared to Entry Level Stewardship farms. Conservation Grade and organic farms both supported a fifth higher habitat diversity at the 250-m radius scale compared to Entry Level Stewardship farms. Habitat diversity at the 100-m and 250-m scales significantly predicted species richness of butterflies and plants. Habitat diversity at the 100-m scale also significantly predicted species richness of birds in winter and solitary bees. There were no significant relationships between habitat diversity and species richness for bumblebees or birds in summer. Butterfly species richness was significantly higher on organic farms (50% higher) and marginally higher on Conservation Grade farms (20% higher), compared with farms in Entry Level Stewardship. Organic farms supported significantly more plant species than Entry Level Stewardship farms (70% higher) but Conservation Grade farms did not (10% higher). There were no significant differences between the three schemes for species richness of bumblebees, solitary bees or birds. Policy implications. The wildlife-friendly farming schemes which included compulsory changes in management, Conservation Grade and organic, were more effective at increasing local habitat diversity and species richness compared with the less prescriptive Entry Level Stewardship scheme. We recommend that wildlife-friendly farming schemes should aim to enhance and maintain high local habitat diversity, through mechanisms such as option packages, where farmers are required to deliver a combination of several habitats.

The Sick Child in Early Modern England, 1580-1720

The Sick Child in Early Modern England is a powerful exploration of the treatment, perception, and experience of illness in childhood, from the late sixteenth to the early eighteenth centuries. At this time, the sickness or death of a child was a common occurrence - over a quarter of young people died before the age of fifteen - and yet this subject has received little scholarly attention. Hannah Newton takes three perspectives: first, she investigates medical understandings and treatments of children. She argues that a concept of 'children's physic' existed amongst doctors and laypeople: the young were thought to be physiologically distinct, and in need of special medicines. Secondly, she examines the family's' experience, demonstrating that parents devoted considerable time and effort to the care of their sick offspring, and experienced feelings of devastating grief upon their illnesses and deaths. Thirdly, she takes the strikingly original viewpoint of sick children themselves, offering rare and intimate insights into the emotional, spiritual, physical, and social dimensions of sickness, pain, and death. Newton asserts that children's experiences were characterised by profound ambivalence: whilst young patients were often tormented by feelings of guilt, fears of hell, and physical pain, sickness could also be emotionally and spiritually uplifting, and invited much attention and love from parents. Drawing on a wide array of printed and archival sources, The Sick Child is of vital interest to scholars working in the interconnected fields of the history of medicine, childhood, parenthood, bodies, emotion, pain, death, religion, and gender.

Increasing consumption of ultra-processed foods and likely impact on human health: evidence from Brazil

Objective: To assess time trends in the contribution of processed foods to food purchases made by Brazilian households and to explore the potential impact on the overall quality of the diet. Design: Application of a new classification of foodstuffs based on extent and purpose of food processing to data collected by comparable probabilistic household budget surveys. The classification assigns foodstuffs to the following groups: unprocessed/minimally processed foods (Group 1); processed culinary ingredients (Group 2); or ultra-processed ready-to-eat or ready-to-heat food products (Group 3). Setting: Eleven metropolitan areas of Brazil. Subjects: Households; n 13 611 in 1987-8, n 16 014 in 1995-5 and n 13 848 in 2002-3. Results: Over the last three decades, the household consumption of Group 1 and Group 2 foods has been steadily replaced by consumption of Group 3 ultra-processed food products, both overall and in lower- and upper-income groups. In the 2002-3 survey, Group 3 items represented more than one-quarter of total energy (more than one-third for higher-income households). The overall nutrient profile of Group 3 items, compared with that of Group 1 and Group 2 items, revealed more added sugar, more saturated fat, more sodium, less fibre and much higher energy density. Conclusions: The high energy density and the unfavourable nutrition profiling of Group 3 food products, and also their potential harmful effects on eating and drinking behaviours, indicate that governments and health authorities should use all possible methods, including legislation and statutory regulation, to halt and reverse the replacement of minimally processed foods and processed culinary ingredients by ultra-processed food products.

Relief influence on tree species richness in secondary forest fragments of Atlantic Forest, SE, Brazil

(Relief influence on tree species richness in secondary forest fragments of Atlantic Forest, SE, Brazil). The aim of this work was to explore the relationship between tree species richness and morphological characteristics of relief at the Ibiuna Plateau (SE Brazil). We sampled 61 plots of 0.30 ha, systematically established in 20 fragments of secondary forest (2-274 ha) and in three areas within a continuous secondary forest site, Morro Grande Reserve (9,400 ha). At each plot, 100 trees with diameter at breast height > 5 cm were sampled by the point centered quarter method, and total richness and richness per dispersal and succession class were obtained. The relief was characterized by the mean and variance of slope, elevation, aspect and slope location. There was no significant relationship between relief heterogeneity and tree species richness. Relief parameters generally did not affect tree richness, but elevation was particularly important especially in the continuous forest. Despite the limited range of altitudinal variation (150 m), species richness increases with elevation. The highest areas were also those with the largest forest cover and the lowest disturbance degree, which should contribute to the greater richness of those sites. Our results suggest an indirect influence of relief, due to the fact that deforestation is less intense in higher regions, rather than a direct influence of abiotic factors related to the altitudinal gradient.

Successional stage and geographic features determine floristic similarity among Atlantic Forest remnants, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Analysis of floristic similarity relationships between plant communities can detect patterns of species occurrence and also explain conditioning factors. Searching for such patterns, floristic similarity relationships among Atlantic Forest sites situated at Ibiuna Plateau, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, were analyzed by multivariate techniques. Twenty one forest fragments and six sites within a continuous Forest Reserve were included in the analyses. Floristic composition and structure of the tree community (minimum dbh 5 cm) were assessed using the point centered quarter method. Two methods were used for multivariate analysis: Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) and Two-Way Indicator Species Analysis (TWINSPAN). Similarity relationships among the study areas were based on the successional stage of the community and also on spatial proximity. The more similar the successional stage of the communities, the higher the floristic similarity between them, especially if the communities are geographically close. A floristic gradient from north to south was observed, suggesting a transition between biomes, since northern indicator species are mostly heliophytes, occurring also in cerrado vegetation and seasonal semideciduous forest, while southern indicator species are mostly typical ombrophilous and climax species from typical dense evergreen Atlantic Forest.

A new species of Syllis (Polychaeta: Syllidae: Syllinae) from off Fortaleza, north-eastern Brazil

In a study investigating the composition and spatial and temporal variation of the benthic macrofauna associated to the discharge of domestic sewage off Fortaleza, north-eastern Brazil, a new species of Syllis was found. This new species, S. guidae sp. nov., is characterized by having blades of falcigers with subdistal tooth about same length as distal tooth, but stouter than it, with spines on cutting edge almost reaching the tip of subdistal tooth, blades of falcigers with conspicuous subdistal triangular process and unusually long anal papilla between anal cirri, measuring about one-quarter of their length. Syllis guidae sp. nov., is herein described and compared with the most similar congeners.

Assessing the impact of deforestation and climate change on the range size and environmental niche of bird species in the Atlantic forests, Brazil

Aim Habitat loss and climate change are two major drivers of biological diversity. Here we quantify how deforestation has already changed, and how future climate scenarios may change, environmental conditions within the highly disturbed Atlantic forests of Brazil. We also examine how environmental conditions have been altered within the range of selected bird species. Location Atlantic forests of south-eastern Brazil. Methods The historical distribution of 21 bird species was estimated using Maxent. After superimposing the present-day forest cover, we examined the environmental niches hypothesized to be occupied by these birds pre- and post-deforestation using environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA). ENFA was also used to compare conditions in the entire Atlantic forest ecosystem pre- and post-deforestation. The relative influence of land use and climate change on environmental conditions was examined using analysis of similarity and principal components analysis. Results Deforestation in the region has resulted in a decrease in suitable habitat of between 78% and 93% for the Atlantic forest birds included here. Further, Atlantic forest birds today experience generally wetter and less seasonal forest environments than they did historically. Models of future environmental conditions within forest remnants suggest generally warmer conditions and lower annual variation in rainfall due to greater precipitation in the driest quarter of the year. We found that deforestation resulted in a greater divergence of environmental conditions within Atlantic forests than that predicted by climate change. Main conclusions The changes in environmental conditions that have occurred with large-scale deforestation suggest that selective regimes may have shifted and, as a consequence, spatial patterns of intra-specific variation in morphology, behaviour and genes have probably been altered. Although the observed shifts in available environmental conditions resulting from deforestation are greater than those predicted by climate change, the latter will result in novel environments that exceed temperatures in any present-day climates and may lead to biotic attrition unless organisms can adapt to these warmer conditions. Conserving intra-specific diversity over the long term will require considering both how changes in the recent past have influenced contemporary populations and the impact of future environmental change.

Cloning and characterization of a zebrafish homologue of human AQP1: a bifunctional water and gas channel

Chen LM, Zhao J, Musa-Aziz R, Pelletier MF, Drummond IA, Boron WF. Cloning and characterization of a zebrafish homologue of human AQP1: a bifunctional water and gas channel. Am J Physiol Regul Integr Comp Physiol 299: R1163-R1174, 2010. First published August 25, 2010; doi:10.1152/ajpregu.00319.2010.-The mammalian aquaporins AQP1, AQP4, and AQP5 have been shown to function not only as water channels but also as gas channels. Zebrafish have two genes encoding an AQP1 homologue, aqp1a and aqp1b. In the present study, we cloned the cDNA that encodes the zebrafish protein Aqp1a from the 72-h postfertilization (hpf) embryo of Danio rerio, as well as from the swim bladder of the adult. The deduced amino-acid sequence of aqp1a consists of 260 amino acids and is 59% identical to human AQP1. By analyzing the genomic DNA sequence, we identified four exons in the aqp1a gene. By in situ hybridization, aqp1a is expressed transiently in the developing vasculature and in erythrocytes from 16 to 48 h of development. Later, at 72 hpf, aqp1a is expressed in dermal ionocytes and in the swim bladder. Western blot analysis of adult tissues reveals that Aqp1a is most highly expressed in the eye and swim bladder. Xenopus oocytes expressing aqp1a have a channel-dependent (*) osmotic water permeability (P(f)*) that is indistinguishable from that of human AQP1. On the basis of the magnitude of the transient change in surface pH (Delta pHS) that were recorded as the oocytes were exposed to either CO(2) or NH(3), we conclude that zebrafish Aqp1a is permeable to both CO(2) and NH(3). The ratio (Delta pHS*)CO2/P(f)* is about half that of human AQP1, and the ratio (Delta pHS*)NH3/P(f)* is about one-quarter that of human AQP1. Thus, compared with human AQP1, zebrafish Aqp1a has about twice the selectivity for CO(2) over NH(3).

Epidemiology and control of frontier malaria in Brazil: lessons from community-based studies in rural Amazonia

We describe the epidemiology of malaria in a frontier agricultural settlement in Brazilian Amazonia. We analysed the incidence of slide-confirmed symptomatic infections diagnosed between 2001 and 2006 in a cohort of 531 individuals (2281.53 person-years of follow-up) and parasite prevalence data derived from four cross-sectional surveys. Overall, the incidence rates of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparaum were 20.6/100 and 6.8/100 person-years at risk, respectively, with a marked decline in the incidence of both species (81.4 and 56.8%, respectively) observed between 2001 and 2006. PCR revealed 5.4-fold more infections than conventional microscopy in population-wide cross-sectional surveys carried out between 2004 and 2006 (average prevalence, 11.3 vs. 2.0%). Only 27.2% of PCR-positive (but 73.3% of slide-positive) individuals had symptoms when enrolled, indicating that asymptomatic carriage of low-grade parasitaemias is a common phenomenon in frontier settlements. A circular cluster comprising 22.3% of the households, all situated in the area of most recent occupation, comprised 69.1% of all malaria infections diagnosed during the follow-up, with malaria incidence decreasing exponentially with distance from the cluster centre. By targeting one-quarter of the households, with selective indoor spraying or other house-protection measures, malaria incidence could be reduced by more than two-thirds in this community. (C) 2010 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Äldre och psykofarmaka : Några sjuksköterskors uppfattning

Nearly nine percent of the population in Sweden are 75 years or older. Still they consume more than a quarter of all medicines. This increased use, is specially noticeable in nursing home residents, where the elderly is using a average of 8-10 preparations per day. According to the National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden, the number of drugs and specially psychotropic drugs, has proved to be a risk factor for drug-related problems among the elderly, such as drug interaction and side effects. Routines for regular and systematic follow-up of drug prescription and utilisation reviews were not extensively implemented. According to the National Board of Health and Welfare its important to start the work to reduce psychotropic drugs among the elderly in nursing homes. Aim: This studie examine nurses apprehension about psychotopic drugs among the elderly in nursing homes. Method: An questionnarie based survey whit 10 closed questions. The questionary was answered of 46 nurses who works in nursing homes. Result: A majority of the nurses, tought the elderly in nursing homes were using to musch psychotropic drugs. The nurses tought that psychotropic drugs often prescribes as a matter of routin, particullary hypnotics and sedeativs. Those drugs was not effectiv in long terms according to the nurses. They also tought that alternative mehtods should be considered before describing pscyhotropic drugs. The nurses tought as a occupational group, that they had a responsibility to follow up and evaluate the elderlys medication whit psychotropic drugs.