Alarm systems and catastrophes from a diverse point of view

Using a chain of urns, we build a Bayesian nonparametric alarm system to predict catastrophic events, such as epidemics, black outs, etc. Differently from other alarm systems in the literature, our model is constantly updated on the basis of the available information, according to the Bayesian paradigm. The papers contains both theoretical and empirical results. In particular, we test our alarm system on a well-known time series of sunspots.

The apoptotic and proliferation rate of tumour budding cells in colorectal cancer outlines a heterogeneous population of cells with various impacts on clinical outcome

AIMS In colorectal cancer (CRC), tumour buds represent an aggressive cell type at the invasive front with apparently low proliferation. The aim of this study was to determine proliferation and apoptotic rates of buds in comparison to tumour centre, front and mucosa. METHODS AND RESULTS Whole tissue sections from 188 CRC patients underwent immunohistochemistry for Ki67. Ten high-power fields (HPFs) were evaluated in mucosa, tumour centre, tumour front and tumour buds (total = 40 HPFs/case). Caspase-3 and M30 immunohistochemistry were performed on a multipunch tissue microarray from the same cohort. Ki67, caspase-3 and M30 immunoreactivity were correlated with outcome. The average percentage of cells showing Ki67 positivity was 5.2% in mucosa, and was not significantly different between the centre and front of the tumour (38.2% and 34.9%; P < 0.0001); 0.3% of buds showed Ki67 positivity (P < 0.0001). Caspase-3 expression was similar in mucosa, tumour centre and tumour front, but lower in tumour buds (<0.1%; P < 0.0001). M30 staining in buds was decreased (0.01%; P < 0.0001) in comparison to other areas. Ki67 positivity in buds was detrimental to survival in univariate (P = 0.0352) and multivariate (P = 0.0355) analysis. Caspase-3-positive tumours showed better outcome than negative tumours (P = 0.0262); but tumours with caspase-3-positive buds showed a worse outcome than those with caspase-3-negative buds (P = 0.0235). CONCLUSIONS Ki67, caspase-3 and M30 staining is absent in most tumour buds, suggesting decreased proliferation and apoptosis. However, the fact that Ki67 and caspase-3 immunoreactivity was associated with unfavourable prognosis points to a heterogeneous population of tumour buds.

Changes in the PQRST intervals and heart rate variability associated with rewarming in two newborns undergoing hypothermia therapy.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effects of hypothermia therapy and subsequent rewarming on the PQRST intervals and heart rate variability (HRV) in term newborns with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE). OBJECTIVES: This study describes the changes in the PQRST intervals and HRV during rewarming to normal core body temperature of 2 newborns with HIE after hypothermia therapy. METHODS: Within 6 h after birth, 2 newborns with HIE were cooled to a core body temperature of 33.5 degrees C for 72 h using a cooling blanket, followed by gradual rewarming (0.5 degrees C per hour) until the body temperature reached 36.5 degrees C. Custom instrumentation recorded the electrocardiogram from the leads used for clinical monitoring of vital signs. Generalized linear mixed models were calculated to estimate temperature-related changes in PQRST intervals and HRV. Results: For every 1 degrees C increase in body temperature, the heart rate increased by 9.2 bpm (95% CI 6.8-11.6), the QTc interval decreased by 21.6 ms (95% CI 17.3-25.9), and low and high frequency HRV decreased by 0.480 dB (95% CI 0.052-0.907) and 0.938 dB (95% CI 0.460-1.416), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Hypothermia-induced changes in the electrocardiogram should be monitored carefully in future studies.

Cosmogenic production rates and recoil loss effects in micrometeorites and interplanetary dust particles

We present a purely physical model to determine cosmogenic production rates for noble gases and radionuclides in micrometeorites (MMs) and interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) by solar cosmic-rays (SCR) and galactic cosmic-rays (GCR) fully considering recoil loss effects. Our model is based on various nuclear model codes to calculate recoil cross sections, recoil ranges, and finally the percentages of the cosmogenic nuclides that are lost as a function of grain size, chemical composition of the grain, and the spectral distribution of the projectiles. The main advantage of our new model compared with earlier approaches is that we consider the entire SCR particle spectrum up to 240 MeV and not only single energy points. Recoil losses for GCR-produced nuclides are assumed to be equal to recoil losses for SCR-produced nuclides. Combining the model predictions with Poynting-Robertson orbital lifetimes, we calculate cosmic-ray exposure ages for recently studied MMs, cosmic spherules, and IDPs. The ages for MMs and the cosmic-spherule are in the range <2.2–233 Ma, which corresponds, according to the Poynting-Robertson drag, to orbital distances in the range 4.0–34 AU. For two IDPs, we determine exposure ages of longer than 900 Ma, which corresponds to orbital distances larger than 150 AU. The orbital distance in the range 4–6 AU for one MM and the cosmic spherule indicate an origin either in the asteroid belt or release from comets coming either from the Kuiper Belt or the Oort Cloud. Three of the studied MMs have orbital distances in the range 23–34 AU, clearly indicating a cometary origin, either from short-period comets from the Kuiper Belt or from the Oort Cloud. The two IDPs have orbital distances of more than 150 AU, indicating an origin from Oort Cloud comets.

Mass Balance and Accumulation Rate Across Siple Dome, West Antarctica

Snow-accumulation rates and rates of ice-thickness change (mass balance) are studied at several sites on Siple Dome, West Antarctica. Accumulation rates are derived from analyses of gross beta radioactivity in shallow firn cores located along a 60 km transect spanning both flanks and the crest of the dome. There is a north-south gradient in snow-accumulation rate across the dome that is consistent with earlier radar mapping of internal stratigraphy. Orographic processes probably control this distribution. Mass balance is inferred from the difference between global positioning system (GPS)-derived vertical velocities and snow-accumulation rates for sites close to the firn-core locations. Results indicate that there is virtually no net thickness change at four of the five sites. The exception is at the northernmost site where a small amount of thinning is detected, that appears to be inconsistent with other studies. A possible cause of this anomalous thinning is recent retreat of the grounding line of Ice Stream D.

Interdisciplinary assessment of complex regional water systems and their future evolution: how socioeconomic drivers can matter more than climate

Modeling of future water systems at the regional scale is a difficult task due to the complexity of current structures (multiple competing water uses, multiple actors, formal and informal rules) both temporally and spatially. Representing this complexity in the modeling process is a challenge that can be addressed by an interdisciplinary and holistic approach. The assessment of the water system of the Crans-Montana-Sierre area (Switzerland) and its evolution until 2050 were tackled by combining glaciological, hydrogeological, and hydrological measurements and modeling with the evaluation of water use through documentary, statistical and interview-based analyses. Four visions of future regional development were co-produced with a group of stakeholders and were then used as a basis for estimating future water demand. The comparison of the available water resource and the water demand at monthly time scale allowed us to conclude that for the four scenarios socioeconomic factors will impact on the future water systems more than climatic factors. An analysis of the sustainability of the current and future water systems based on four visions of regional development allowed us to identify those scenarios that will be more sustainable and that should be adopted by the decision-makers. The results were then presented to the stakeholders through five key messages. The challenges of communicating the results in such a way with stakeholders are discussed at the end of the article.

Mobilities and Pottery Production Archaeological and Anthropological Perspectives

Our workshop aims at a deeper understanding of various itineraries of pottery and dif-ferent forms of human mobilities in which pottery is relevant, bringing together archae-ological and anthropological perspectives. For thousands of years, pottery has been an important part of many societies’ material culture and therefore a major research topic in both disciplines. In past and present societies the material existence of ceramic vessels is informed by various movements across time and space but also by periods of stasis: from the mo-ment of their production until their exclusion from daily practices, either disposed as waste, excluded as funerary objects or stored as collectibles. In their seemingly endless material durability, ceramic vessels might outlive their human producers, distributors or consumers and travel farther and longer. Still they are embedded in the regimes of human mobility, ranging from daily subsistence-based mobility to long-term migrations. In such processes, pottery shifts between spatial, temporal, social, economic and cultural contexts. Thereby ceramic vessels are appropriated and integrated in new contexts of action and meaning, sometimes leading to material transformations. This workshop takes place in the context of our archaeological research project „Mobili-ties, Entanglements and Transformations in Neolithic Societies on the Swiss Plateau (3900-3500 BC)“ to which our PhDs are connected. We address the above outlined topic by analysing the production of pottery. Based on dendrochronologically dated settle-ments between 3900 and 3500 BC, two regional pottery styles and their local variations are well known, Pfyn and Cortaillod. The vessels share the same habitus and were made of clays and temper deriving from the settlements’ surroundings. However, some vessels specific to other pottery styles are also present on the sites. They are characteristic for pottery styles known from more or less far off regions (Michelsberg, Munzingen or Néo-lithique Moyen Bourguignon). Some of them were travelling objects, as their non local raw materials show. Others seem to have been produced locally, pointing to long-term mobility and a change of residence from neighbouring social groups.

State of the art: Reproduction and pregnancy in rheumatic diseases

Throughout the last decade, increasing awareness has been raised on issues related to reproduction in rheumatic diseases including basic research to clarify the important role of estrogens in the etiology and pathophysiology of immune/inflammatory diseases. Sub- or infertility is a heterogeneous condition that can be related to immunological mechanisms, to pregnancy loss, to disease burden, to therapy, and to choices in regard to family size. Progress in reproductive medicine has made it possible for more patients with rheumatic disease to have children. Active disease in women with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) affects their children's birth weight and may have long-term effects on their future health status. Pregnancy complications as preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction are still increased in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and antiphospholipid syndrome (APS), however, biomarkers can monitor adverse events, and several new therapies may improve outcomes. Pregnancies in women with APS remain a challenge, and better therapies for the obstetric APS are needed. New prospective studies indicate improved outcomes for pregnancies in women with rare diseases like systemic sclerosis and vasculitis. TNF inhibitors hold promise for maintaining remission in rheumatological patients and may be continued at least in the first half of pregnancy. Pre-conceptional counseling and interdisciplinary management of pregnancies are essential for ensuring optimal pregnancy outcomes.

Late onset and pregnancy-induced congenital thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura.

UNLABELLED We report on our patient (case 2) who experienced a first acute episode of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) at the age of 19 years during her first pregnancy in 1976 which ended in a spontaneous abortion in the 30th gestational week. Treatment with red blood cell concentrates was implemented and splenectomy was performed. After having suffered from several TTP episodes in 1977, possibly mitigated by acetylsalicylic acid therapy, an interruption and sterilization were performed in 1980 in her second pregnancy thereby avoiding another disease flare-up. Her elder sister (case 1) had been diagnosed with TTP in 1974, also during her first pregnancy. She died in 1977 during her second pregnancy from a second acute TTP episode. DIAGNOSIS In 2013 a severe ADAMTS13 deficiency of <10% without detectable ADAMTS13 inhibitor was repeatedly found. Investigation of the ADAMTS13 gene showed that the severe ADAMTS13 deficiency was caused by compound heterozygous ADAMTS13 mutations: a premature stop codon in exon 2 (p.Q44X), and a missense mutation in exon 24 (p.R1060W) associated with low but measurable ADAMTS13 activity. CONCLUSION Genetic analysis of the ADAMTS13 gene is important in TTP patients of all ages if an ADAMTS13 inhibitor has been excluded.

Educational Systems and Gender Segregation in Education: A Three-Country Comparison of Germany, Norway and Canada

How do institutional settings and their embedded policy principles affect gender-typed enrolment in educational programmes? Based on gender-sensitive theories on career choice, we hypothesised that gender segregation in education is higher with a wider range of offers of vocational programmes. By analysing youth survey and panel data, we tested this assumption for Germany, Norway and Canada, three countries whose educational systems represent a different mix of academic, vocational and universalistic education principles. We found that vocational programmes are considerably more gender-segregated than are academic (e.g. university) programmes. Men, more so than women, can avoid gender-typed programmes by passing on to a university education. This in turn means that as long as their secondary school achievement does not allow for a higher education career, they have a higher likelihood of being allocated to male-typed programmes in the vocational education and training (VET) system. In addition, social background and the age at which students have to choose educational offers impact on the transition to gendered educational programmes. Overall, gender segregation in education is highest in Germany and the lowest in Canada. We interpret the differences between these countries with respect to the constellations of educational principles and policies in the respective countries.

Influence of Different Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Regimens on Response, Prognosis, and Complication Rate in Patients with Esophagogastric Adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND Perioperative chemotherapy improves survival in patients with advanced esophagogastric cancer, but the optimal treatment regimen remains unclear. More intensive chemotherapy may improve outcome, but also increase toxicity and complications. METHODS A total of 843 patients were included in this retrospective study and stratified in 4 groups: doublet therapy with cisplatin or oxaliplatin and 5-fluorouracil (groups A/B) or triplet therapy with additional epirubicin or taxane (groups C/D). The influence of the different neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimens on response, prognosis, and complications was assessed. RESULTS Clinical and pathological response were associated with longer overall survival (OS; p < 0.001). No significant differences regarding response or OS were found, but there was a trend toward better outcome in group D (taxane-containing triplet). In the subgroup of 669 patients with adenocarcinomas of the esophagogastric junction (AEG), patients who had received taxane-containing regimens had a significantly longer OS (p = 0.037), but taxane use was not an independent factor in multivariate analysis. Triple therapy with taxanes did not result in a higher complication rate or postoperative mortality. CONCLUSIONS Although no superior neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimen was identified for patients with esophagogastric adenocarcinoma, taxane-containing regimens should be further investigated in randomized trials, especially in patients with AEG tumors.