Why is the Greek economy collapsing? A simple tale of high multipliers and low exports. CEPS Commentary, 21 December 2012

In an attempt to understand why the Greek economy is collapsing, this Commentary points out two key aspects that are often overlooked – the country’s large multiplier and a bad export performance. When combined with the need for a large fiscal adjustment, these factors help explain how fiscal consolidation in Greece has been associated with such a large drop in GDP.

Risk and price in the bidding process of contractors

Formal and analytical risk models prescribe how risk should be incorporated in construction bids. However, the actual process of how contractors and their clients negotiate and agree on price is complex, and not clearly articulated in the literature. Using participant observation, the entire tender process was shadowed in two leading UK construction firms. This was compared to propositions in analytical models and significant differences were found. 670 hours of work observed in both firms revealed three stages of the bidding process. Bidding activities were categorized and their extent estimated as deskwork (32%), calculations (19%), meetings (14%), documents (13%), off-days (11%), conversations (7%), correspondence (3%) and travel (1%). Risk allowances of 1-2% were priced in some bids and three tiers of risk apportionment in bids were identified. However, priced risks may sometimes be excluded from the final bidding price to enhance competitiveness. Thus, although risk apportionment affects a contractor’s pricing strategy, other complex, microeconomic factors also affect price. Instead of pricing in contingencies, risk was priced mostly through contractual rather than price mechanisms, to reflect commercial imperatives. The findings explain why some assumptions underpinning analytical models may not be sustainable in practice and why what actually happens in practice is important for those who seek to model the pricing of construction bids.

The visibility of agricultural subsidies and market illusions in the Common Agricultural Policy: Some evidence from farmers' views in Germany, Portugal and the United Kingdom

This article demonstrates that the design and nature of agricultural support schemes has an influence on farmers' perception of their level of dependence on agricultural support. While direct aid payments inform farmers about the extent to which they are subsidised, indirect support mechanisms veil the level of subsidisation, and therefore they are not fully aware of the extent to which they are supported. To test this hypothesis, we applied data from a survey of 4,500 farmers in three countries: the United Kingdom, Germany and Portugal. It is demonstrated that indirect support, such as that provided through artificially high consumer prices, gives an illusion of free and competitive markets among farmers. This 'visibility' hypothesis is evaluated against an alternative hypothesis that assumes farmers have complete, or at least a fairly comprehensive level of, information on agricultural support schemes. Our findings show that this alternative hypothesis can be ruled out.

Towards a population ecology of stressed environments: the effects of zinc on the springtail Folsomia candida

1. To understand population dynamics in stressed environments it is necessary to join together two classical lines of research. Population responses to environmental stress have been studied at low density in life table response experiments. These show how the population's growth rate (pgr) at low density varies in relation to levels of stress. Population responses to density, on the other hand, are based on examination of the relationship between pgr and population density. 2. The joint effects of stress and density on pgr can be pictured as a contour map in which pgr varies with stress and density in the same way that the height of land above sea level varies with latitude and longitude. Here a microcosm experiment is reported that compared the joint effects of zinc and population density on the pgr of the springtail Folsomia candida (Collembola). 3. Our experiments allowed the plotting of a complete map of the effects of density and a stressor on pgr. Particularly important was the position of the pgr= 0 contour, which suggested that carrying capacity varied little with zinc concentration until toxic levels were reached. 4. This prediction accords well with observations of population abundance in the field. The method also allowed us to demonstrate, simultaneously, hormesis, toxicity, an Allee effect and density dependence. 5. The mechanisms responsible for these phenomena are discussed. As zinc is an essential trace element the initial increase in pgr is probably a consequence of dietary zinc deficiency. The Allee effect may be attributed to productivity of the environment increasing with density at low density. Density dependence is a result of food limitation. 6. Synthesis and applications. We illustrate a novel solution based on mapping a population's growth rate in relation to stress and population density. Our method allows us to demonstrate, simultaneously, hormesis, toxicity, an Allee effect and density dependence in an important ecological indicator species. We hope that the approach followed here will prove to have general applicability enabling predictions of field abundance to be made from estimates of the joint effects of the stressors and density on population growth rate.

Effect of H-bonding on the ambivalence of SCN- towards copper(II)

Condensations of 2-(2-aminoethyl)pyridine with 4-methylimidazole-5-carboxaldehyde and 1-methyl-2-imidazolecarboxaldehyde generate the tridentate N donor ligands L and L' respectively. Reactions of Cu(NCS)(2) with L and L' yield respectively CuL(SCN)(NCS) (1) containing a CuN4S core and CuL'(NCS)(2) (2) having a CuN5 core. Both the cores are square pyramidal with SCN bound in 1 at the axial position through the S end. This differential behaviour of SCN in the two complexes despite the ligands being very similar, is investigated by DFT calculations at the B3LYP/TZV level. It is found that DFT calculations predict isolation of the Cu(ligand)(NCS)(2) species for both the ligands L and L'. Presence of an offsetting intermolecular H-bonding between the N atom of the thiocyanate and the N-H proton of the ligand L of an adjacent molecule makes the binding of SCN via the S end feasible in 1 resulting in the H-bonded-dimer Cu2L2(SCN)(2)(NCS)(2). The strength of the H-bond is estimated as 27.1 kJ mol (1) from the DFT calculations. The question of such H-bonding does not arise with L' as it lacks in a similar H atom. Dimeric 1 represents a case of two non-interacting spins. (C) 2008 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Towards the total synthesis of colletofragarones: constructing the macrocyclic lactone by high pressure-mediated intramolecular Diels-Alder reaction

We report herein an intramolecular Diels-Alder approach towards the construction of the macrocyclic lactone ring and the perhydrobenzofuran system of the colletofragarones, novel metabolites produced by fungi of the genus Colletotrichum that are responsible for inhibition of germination of the conidia in these species. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forum theorizing in the context of professional practice: The case for middle-range theories

This commentary seeks to complement the contribution of the Building Research & Information special issue on 'Developing Theories for the Built Environment' (2008) by highlighting the important role of middle-range theories within the context of professional practice. Middle-range theories provide a form of theorizing that lies between abstract grand theorizing and atheoretical local descriptions. They are also characterized by the way in which they directly engage with the concerns of practitioners. In the context of professional practice, any commitment to theorizing should habitually be combined with an equivalent commitment to empirical research; rarely is it appropriate to neglect one in favour of the other. Any understanding of the role that theory plays in professional practice must further be informed by Schon's seminal ideas on reflective practice. Practitioners are seen to utilize theories as inputs to a process of continuous reflection, thereby guarding against complacency and routinization. The authors would challenge any assumption that academics alone are responsible for generating theories, thereby limiting the role of practitioners to their application. Such a dichotomized view is contrary to established ideas on Mode 2 knowledge production and current trends towards co-production research in the context of the built environment.

Place attachment and sense of belonging in the offices

Examines the concept of “place attachment” as defined in various disciplines and develops an effective conceptual approach that can be applied to facilities management. Describes the development of a model-matchmaking process adapted from Passini's model of cognitive mapping. Findings that the emergence of the new economy is undermining our ability to form attachments with people, places and companies. However, one of the unintended effects of this is that it has strengthened the value of place and aroused a longing for community. Moreover, loyalty to an organisation is increasingly determined by social and place attachment. Proposes that further research needs to be undertaken to “engineer out” the negative impacts of flexibility associated with loss of place. States that place attachment presents a challenging view of the world that is contrary to all the received wisdom in facilities management, where flexibility has always assumed an unchallenged position in relation to buildings and people. Concludes that this research area presents many pragmatic design and operational questions for facilities managers.

Subcontract and supply enquiries in the tender process of contractors

In the tender process, contractors often rely on subcontract and supply enquiries to calculate their bid prices. However, this integral part of the bidding process is not empirically articulated in the literature. Over 30 published materials on the tendering process of contractors that talk about enquiries were reviewed and found to be based mainly on experiential knowledge rather than systematic evidence. The empirical research here helps to describe the process of enquiries precisely, improve it in practice, and have some basis to support it in theory. Using a live participant observation case study approach, the whole tender process was shadowed in the offices of two of the top 20 UK civil engineering construction firms. This helped to investigate 15 research questions on how contractors enquire and obtain prices from subcontractors and suppliers. Forty-three subcontract enquiries and 18 supply enquiries were made across two different projects with average value of 7m. An average of 15 subcontract packages and seven supply packages was involved. Thus, two or three subcontractors or suppliers were invited to bid in each package. All enquiries were formulated by the estimator, with occasional involvement of three other personnel. Most subcontract prices were received in an average of 14 working days; and supply prices took five days. The findings show 10 main activities involved in processing enquiries and their durations, as well as wasteful practices associated with enquiries. Contractors should limit their enquiry invitations to a maximum of three per package, and optimize the waiting time for quotations in order to improve cost efficiency.

Commercial reviews in the tender process of contractors

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to show the extent to which clients amend standard form contracts in practice, the locus of the amendments, and how contractors respond to the amendments when putting together a bid. Design/methodology/approach – Four live observational case studies were carried out in two of the top 20 UK construction firms. The whole process used to review the proposed terms and conditions of the contract was shadowed using participant observation, interview and documentary analysis. Findings – All four cases showed strong evidence of amendments relating mostly to payment and contractual aspects: 83 amendments in Case Study 1 (CS1), 80 in CS2, 15 in CS3 and 29 in CS4. This comprised clauses that were modified (37 per cent), substituted (23 per cent), deleted (7 per cent) and new additions (33 per cent). Risks inherent in the amendments were mostly addressed through contractual rather than price mechanisms, to reflect commercial imperatives. “Qualifications” and “clarifications” were included in the tender submissions for post-tender negotiations. Thus, the amendments did not necessarily influence price. There was no evidence of a “standard-form contract“ being used as such, although clients may draw on published “standard-form contracts” to derive the forms of contract actually used in practice. Practical implications – Contractors should pay attention to clauses relating to contractual and financial aspects when reviewing tender documents. Clients should draft equitable payment and contractual terms and conditions to reduce risk of dispute. Indeed, it is prudent for clients not to pass on inestimable risks. Originality/value – A better understanding of the extent and locus of amendments in standard form contracts, and how contractors respond, is provided.

Assessing the process of knowledge transfer – An empirical study

This paper investigates and evaluates the process of knowledge transfer in construction projects. Due to the highly competitive nature of business environments, knowledge transfer between organisations has become increasingly popular in recent years. However, although organisations can realise remarkable benefits by transferring knowledge from one unit to another, successful knowledge transfer can be difficult to achieve. The discussions presented in the paper are mainly based on findings of two case studies. The two cases were selected from Private Finance Initiative (PFI) projects in the UK. According to the case study findings, different stages of a knowledge transfer process can be overlapped, omitted, repeated as well as intermitted and then restarted. One of the significant findings of the case studies was the role of the "knowledge mediator". In selected case studies, there were external consultants and expert staff in the form of knowledge mediators. The importance of their roles was frequently highlighted by the interview participants. They were not only facilitating the close liaison between the knowledge source and the receiver, but also their role was strongly associated with practices of translation and interpretation. This combined role of mediator/translator, therefore, appears to be particularly significant for inter-organisational knowledge transfer in PFI projects.