824 resultados para Probabilistic decision process model


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Business strategy is important to all organizations. Nearly all Fortune 500 firms are implementing Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems to improve the execution of their business strategy and to improve integration with its information technology (IT) strategy. Successful implementation of these multi-million dollar software systems are requiring new emphasis on change management and on Business and IT strategic alignment. This paper examines business and IT strategic alignment and seeks to explore whether an ERP implementation can drive business process reengineering and business and IT strategic alignment. An overview of business strategy and strategic alignment are followed by an analysis of ERP. The “As-Is/To-Be” process model is then presented and explained as a simple, but vital tool for improving business strategy, strategic alignment, and ERP implementation success.

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Ein dynamisches Umfeld erforderte die permanente Anpassung (intra-)logistischer Prozesse zur Aufrechterhaltung der Leistungs- und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von Unternehmen. In der Standardisierung von Prozessen und in unternehmensübergreifenden Prozessmodellen wurden Schlüsselfaktoren für ein effizientes Geschäftsprozessmanagement gesehen, insbesondere in Netzwerken. In der Praxis fehlten wissenschaftlich fundierte und detaillierte Referenzprozessmodelle für die (Intra-)Logistik. Mit der Erforschung und Entwicklung eines Referenzprozessmodells und der prototypischen Realisierung einer Prozess-Workbench zur generischen Erstellung wandelbarer Prozessketten wurde ein Beitrag zur Prozessstandardisierung in der Logistik geleistet. Im Folgenden wird der beschrittene Lösungsweg dargestellt, der erstens aus der Entwicklung eines Metamodells für die Referenzmodellierung, zweitens aus dem empirischen Nachweis der Generierung eines Referenzprozessmodells aus „atomaren“ Elementen und drittens aus der Modellevaluation bestand.

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Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a disruptive technology as it satisfies a previously unmet need which is associated with a profound therapeutic benefit. In randomized clinical trials, TAVI has been shown to improve survival compared with medical treatment among patients considered not suitable candidates for surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR), and to provide similar outcomes as SAVR in selected high-risk patients. Currently, TAVI is limited to selected elderly patients with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis. As this patient population frequently suffers from comorbid conditions, which may influence outcomes, the selection of patients to undergo TAVI underlies a complex decision process. Several clinical risk score algorithms are routinely used, although they fall short to fully appreciate the true risk among patients currently referred for TAVI. Beyond traditional risk scores, the clinical assessment by an interdisciplinary Heart Team as well as detailed imaging of the aortic valve, aortic root, descending and abdominal aorta as well as peripheral vasculature are important prerequisites to plan a successful procedure. This review will familiarize the reader with the concepts of the interdisciplinary Heart team, risk scores as well as the most important imaging algorithms suited to select appropriate TAVI patients.

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The development of northern high-latitude peatlands played an important role in the carbon (C) balance of the land biosphere since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). At present, carbon storage in northern peatlands is substantial and estimated to be 500 ± 100 Pg C (1 Pg C = 1015 g C). Here, we develop and apply a peatland module embedded in a dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model (LPX-Bern 1.0). The peatland module features a dynamic nitrogen cycle, a dynamic C transfer between peatland acrotelm (upper oxic layer) and catotelm (deep anoxic layer), hydrology- and temperature-dependent respiration rates, and peatland specific plant functional types. Nitrogen limitation down-regulates average modern net primary productivity over peatlands by about half. Decadal acrotelm-to-catotelm C fluxes vary between −20 and +50 g C m−2 yr−1 over the Holocene. Key model parameters are calibrated with reconstructed peat accumulation rates from peat-core data. The model reproduces the major features of the peat core data and of the observation-based modern circumpolar soil carbon distribution. Results from a set of simulations for possible evolutions of northern peat development and areal extent show that soil C stocks in modern peatlands increased by 365–550 Pg C since the LGM, of which 175–272 Pg C accumulated between 11 and 5 kyr BP. Furthermore, our simulations suggest a persistent C sequestration rate of 35–50 Pg C per 1000 yr in present-day peatlands under current climate conditions, and that this C sink could either sustain or turn towards a source by 2100 AD depending on climate trajectories as projected for different representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.

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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the costs and outcomes of rescreening for group B streptococci (GBS) compared to universal treatment of term women with history of GBS colonization in a previous pregnancy. STUDY DESIGN: A decision analysis model was used to compare costs and outcomes. Total cost included the costs of screening, intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP), treatment for maternal anaphylaxis and death, evaluation of well infants whose mothers received IAP, and total costs for treatment of term neonatal early onset GBS sepsis. RESULTS: When compared to screening and treating, universal treatment results in more women treated per GBS case prevented (155 versus 67) and prevents more cases of early onset GBS (1732 versus 1700) and neonatal deaths (52 versus 51) at a lower cost per case prevented ($8,805 versus $12,710). CONCLUSION: Universal treatment of term pregnancies with a history of previous GBS colonization is more cost-effective than the strategy of screening and treating based on positive culture results.

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PURPOSE To explore the cost-effectiveness of using drug-eluting balloon (DEB) angioplasty for the treatment of femoropopliteal arterial lesions, which has been shown to significantly lower the rates of target lesion revascularization (TLR) compared with standard balloon angioplasty (BA). METHODS A simplified decision-analytic model based on TLR rates reported in the literature was applied to baseline and follow-up costs associated with in-hospital patient treatment during 1 year of follow-up. Costs were expressed in Swiss Francs (sFr) and calculated per 100 patients treated. Budgets were analyzed in the context of current SwissDRG reimbursement figures and calculated from two different perspectives: a general budget on total treatment costs (third-party healthcare payer) as well as a budget focusing on the physician/facility provider perspective. RESULTS After 1 year, use of DEB was associated with substantially lower total inpatient treatment costs when compared with BA (sFr 861,916 vs. sFr 951,877) despite the need for a greater investment at baseline related to higher prices for DEBs. In the absence of dedicated reimbursement incentives, however, use of DEB was shown to be the financially less favorable treatment approach from the physician/facility provider perspective (12-month total earnings: sFr 179,238 vs. sFr 333,678). CONCLUSION Use of DEBs may be cost-effective through prevention of TLR at 1 year of follow-up. The introduction of dedicated financial incentives aimed at improving DEB reimbursements may help lower total healthcare costs.

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Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance that has anthropogenic as well as natural marine and terrestrial sources. The tropospheric N2O concentrations have varied substantially in the past in concert with changing climate on glacial–interglacial and millennial timescales. It is not well understood, however, how N2O emissions from marine and terrestrial sources change in response to varying environmental conditions. The distinct isotopic compositions of marine and terrestrial N2O sources can help disentangle the relative changes in marine and terrestrial N2O emissions during past climate variations. Here we present N2O concentration and isotopic data for the last deglaciation, from 16,000 to 10,000 years before present, retrieved from air bubbles trapped in polar ice at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. With the help of our data and a box model of the N2O cycle, we find a 30 per cent increase in total N2O emissions from the late glacial to the interglacial, with terrestrial and marine emissions contributing equally to the overall increase and generally evolving in parallel over the last deglaciation, even though there is no a priori connection between the drivers of the two sources. However, we find that terrestrial emissions dominated on centennial timescales, consistent with a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model that suggests that during the last deglaciation emission changes were strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation patterns over land surfaces. The results improve our understanding of the drivers of natural N2O emissions and are consistent with the idea that natural N2O emissions will probably increase in response to anthropogenic warming.

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Several componential emotion theories suggest that appraisal outcomes trigger characteristic somatovisceral changes that facilitate information processing and prepare the organism for adaptive behavior. The current study tested predictions derived from Scherer's Component Process Model. Participants viewed unpleasant and pleasant pictures (intrinsic pleasantness appraisal) and were asked to concurrently perform either an arm extension or an arm flexion, leading to an increase or a decrease in picture size. Increasing pleasant stimuli and decreasing unpleasant stimuli were considered goal conducive; decreasing pleasant stimuli and increasing unpleasant stimuli were considered goal obstructive (goal conduciveness appraisal). Both appraisals were marked by several somatovisceral changes (facial electromyogram, heart rate (HR)). As predicted, the changes induced by the two appraisals showed similar patterns. Furthermore, HR results, compared with data of earlier studies, suggest that the adaptive consequences of both appraisals may be mediated by stimulus proximity.

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In the context of a memory task, participants were presented with pictures displaying biological and cultural threat stimuli or neutral stimuli (stimulus relevance manipulation) with superimposed symbols signaling monetary gains or losses (goal conduciveness manipulation). Results for heart rate and facial electromyogram show differential efferent effects of the respective appraisal outcomes and provide first evidence for sequential processing, as postulated by Scherer's component process model of emotion. Specifically, as predicted, muscle activity over the brow and cheek regions marking the process of relevance appraisal occurred significantly earlier than facial muscle activity markers of goal conduciveness appraisal. Heart rate, in contrast, was influenced by the stimulus relevance manipulation only.

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When people use generic masculine language instead of more gender-inclusive forms, they communicate gender stereotypes and sometimes exclusion of women from certain social roles. Past research related gender-inclusive language use to sexist beliefs and attitudes. Given that this aspect of language use may be transparent to users, it is unclear whether people explicitly act on these beliefs when using gender-exclusive language forms or whether these are more implicit, habitual patterns. In two studies with German-speaking participants, we showed that spontaneous use of gender-inclusive personal nouns is guided by explicitly favorable intentions as well as habitual processes involving past use of such language. Further indicating the joint influence of deliberate and habitual processes, Study 2 revealed that language-use intentions are embedded in explicit sexist ideologies. As anticipated in our decision-making model, the effects of sexist beliefs on language emerged through deliberate mechanisms involving attitudes and intentions.

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This study was designed to investigate and describe the relationship among resilience, forgiveness and anger expression in adolescents. The purpose of the study was to explore whether certain adolescent resiliencies significantly related to positive or negative affective, behavioral, or cognitive levels of forgiveness and certain types of anger expression in adolescents. This study also investigated whether there were certain adolescent resiliencies and types of forgiveness that can predict lower levels of negative anger expression in adolescents. This research was built on two conceptual models: Wolin and Wolin's (1993) Challenge Model and the Forgiveness Process Model (Enright & Human Development Study Group, 1991). It was based on a quantitative, single-subject correlational research design. A multiple regression analysis was also used to explore possible effects of resilience and forgiveness on anger expression in adolescents. In addition, two demographic variables, Age and Gender, were examined for possible effects on anger expression. Data were gathered from a convenience sample sample of 70 students in three Maine public high schools using three separate assessment instruments: the Adolescent Resiliency Attitudes Scale (ARAS), the Adolescent Version of the Enright Forgiveness Inventory (EFI), and the Adolescent Anger Rating Scale (AARS). Correlational analyses were done on the scales and subscales of these surveys. Significant relationships were found between several adolescent resiliencies and forms of forgiveness as well as between some adolescent resiliencies and types of anger expression. The data indicated that Total Resiliency significantly correlated with Total Forgiveness as well as Total Anger. The findings also identified particular adolescent resiliencies that significantly predicted types of anger expression, while forgiveness did not predict types of anger expression. The data revealed that Age and Gender had no significant affect on anger expression. These findings suggest that the constructs of adolescent resilience and forgiveness have commonalities that can influence how adolescents express anger, and further suggest that intervention and prevention programs expand their focus to incorporate forgiveness skills. The findings from this study can provide critical information to counselors, therapists, and other helping professionals working with adolescents, on approaches to designing and implementing therapy modalities or developmental school guidance programs for adolescents.

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In the demanding environment of healthcare reform, reduction of unwanted physician practice variation is promoted, often through evidence-based guidelines. Guidelines represent innovations that direct change(s) in physician practice; however, compliance has been disappointing. Numerous studies have analyzed guideline development and dissemination, while few have evaluated the consequences of guideline adoption. The primary purpose of this study was to explore and analyze the relationship between physician adoption of the glycated hemoglobin test guideline for management of adult patients with diabetes, and the cost of medical care. The study also examined six personal and organizational characteristics of physicians and their association with innovativeness, or adoption of the guideline. ^ Cost was represented by approved charges from a managed care claims database. Total cost, and diabetes and related complications cost, first were compared for all patients of adopter physicians with those of non-adopter physicians. Then, data were analyzed controlling for disease severity based on insulin dependency, and for high cost cases. There was no statistically significant difference in any of eight cost categories analyzed. This study represented a twelve-month period, and did not reflect cost associated with future complications known to result from inadequate management of glycemia. Guideline compliance did not increase annual cost, which, combined with the future benefit of glycemic control, lends support to the cost effectiveness of the guideline in the long term. Physician adoption of the guideline was recommended to reduce the future personal and economic burden of this chronic disease. ^ Only half of physicians studied had adopted the glycated hemoglobin test guideline for at least 75% of their diabetic patients. No statistically significant relationship was found between any physician characteristic and guideline adoption. Instead, it was likely that the innovation-decision process and guideline dissemination methods were most influential. ^ A multidisciplinary, multi-faceted approach, including interventions for each stage of the innovation-decision process, was proposed to diffuse practice guidelines more effectively. Further, it was recommended that Organized Delivery Systems expand existing administrative databases to include clinical information, decision support systems, and reminder mechanisms, to promote and support physician compliance with this and other evidence-based guidelines. ^

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This paper considers how the multinational corporation's transfer price responds to changes in international corporate effective tax rates. It extends the decentralized decision-making analysis of transfer pricing in the context of different tax rates. It adopts and extends Bond's (1980) model of the decentralized multinational corporation that assumes centralized transfer pricing. The direction of transfer price change is as expected, while the magnitude of change is likely to be less than predicted by the Horst (1971), centralized decision-making model. The paper extends the model further by assuming negotiated transfer pricing, where the analysis is partitioned into perfect and imperfect information cases. The negotiated transfer pricing result reverts to the Horst (1971), or centralized decision-making, result, under perfect information. Under imperfect information, the centralized decision-making result obtains when top management successfully informs division general managers or it successfully implements a non-monetary reward scheme to encourage division general managers to cooperate. Under simplifying assumptions, centralized decision-making dominates decentralized decision-making, while negotiated transfer pricing weakly dominates centralized transfer pricing.

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Colorectal cancer (CRC) has become a public health concern due to the underutilization of the various screening methods. There is a need to understand a patient's decision making process in regards to their health and obtaining the appropriate screening. Previous research has defined patient autonomy in two dimensions: The patient's involvement in the decision making process and their desire to be informed (Ende, Kazis, Ash, & Moskowitz, 1989). Past research shows that patients have a high desire to be informed, but a low desire to be involved in the medical decision process. Deber, Kraetschmer, and Irvine (1996) developed a measure which consisted of two subscales that measures patients' involvement: Patient's desire to be involved in the problem solving (PS) and decision making (DM) process. Little research has examined the desire for involvement and decision making of Latino populations. The present study sought to investigate the psychometric properties of the Deber et al. (1996) measure. In general, Latino patients in the present sample had low desire for autonomy in health decisions or to be involved in the decision making processes of their health related issues. ^

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The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that more than 2 million patients annually acquire an infection while hospitalized in U.S. hospitals for other health problems, and that 88,000 die as a direct or indirect result of these infections. Infection with Clostridium difficile is the most important common cause of health care associated infectious diarrhea in industrialized countries. The purpose of this study was to explore the cost of current treatment practice of beginning empiric metronidazole treatment for hospitalized patients with diarrhea prior to identification of an infectious agent. The records of 70 hospitalized patients were retrospectively analyzed to determine the pharmacologic treatment, laboratory testing, and radiographic studies ordered and the median cost for each of these was determined. All patients in the study were tested for C. difficile and concurrently started on empiric metronidazole. The median direct cost for metronidazole was $7.25 per patient (95% CI 5.00, 12.721). The median direct cost for laboratory charges was $468.00 (95% CI 339.26, 552.58) and for radiology the median direct cost was $970.00 (95% CI 738.00, 3406.91). Indirect costs, which are far greater than direct costs, were not studied. At St. Luke's, if every hospitalized patient with diarrhea was empirically treated with metronidazole at a median cost of $7.25, the annual direct cost is estimated to be over $9,000.00 plus uncalculated indirect costs. In the U.S., the estimated annual direct cost may be as much as $21,750,000.00, plus indirect costs. ^ An unexpected and significant finding of this study was the inconsistency in testing and treatment of patients with health care associated diarrhea. A best-practice model for C. difficile testing and treatment was not found in the literature review. In addition to the cost savings gained by not routinely beginning empiric treatment with metronidazole, significant savings and improvement in patient care may result from a more consistent approach to the diagnosis and treatment of all patients with health care associated diarrhea. A decision tree model for C. difficile testing and treatment is proposed, but further research is needed to evaluate the decision arms before a validated best practice model can be proposed. ^