Interval Prediction Based on Experts’ Statements

In the work [1] we proposed an approach of forming a consensus of experts’ statements in pattern recognition. In this paper, we present a method of aggregating sets of individual statements into a collective one for the case of forecasting of quantitative variable.

Some Computational Aspects of the Consistent Mass Finite Element Method for a (semi-)periodic Eigenvalue Problem

We consider a model eigenvalue problem (EVP) in 1D, with periodic or semi–periodic boundary conditions (BCs). The discretization of this type of EVP by consistent mass finite element methods (FEMs) leads to the generalized matrix EVP Kc = λ M c, where K and M are real, symmetric matrices, with a certain (skew–)circulant structure. In this paper we fix our attention to the use of a quadratic FE–mesh. Explicit expressions for the eigenvalues of the resulting algebraic EVP are established. This leads to an explicit form for the approximation error in terms of the mesh parameter, which confirms the theoretical error estimates, obtained in [2].

Extreme Situations Prediction by MultidimenSional Heterogeneous Time Series Using Logical Decision Functions

* The work is supported by RFBR, grant 04-01-00858-a

Wind power forecasts using Gaussian processes and numerical weather prediction

Since wind at the earth's surface has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safe and economic use of wind energy. In this paper, we investigated a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: a Gaussian process (GP) combined with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was applied to wind-power forecasting up to one day ahead. First, the wind-speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP, then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due to the turbine controlling strategy, wind power forecasts were realized by modeling the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output using a censored GP. To validate the proposed approach, three real-world datasets were used for model training and testing. The empirical results were compared with several classical wind forecast models, and based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the proposed model provides around 9% to 14% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and nearly 17% improvement on a third dataset which is from a newly-built wind farm for which there is a limited amount of training data. © 2013 IEEE.

The System of Quality Prediction on the Basis of a Fuzzy Data and Psychography of the Experts

The system of development unstable processes prediction is given. It is based on a decision-tree method. The processing technique of the expert information is offered. It is indispensable for constructing and processing by a decision-tree method. In particular data is set in the fuzzy form. The original search algorithms of optimal paths of development of the forecast process are described. This one is oriented to processing of trees of large dimension with vector estimations of arcs.

Multidimensional Heterogeneous Variable Prediction Based on Experts’ Statements

* The work was supported by the RFBR under Grant N07-01-00331a.

Bit error rate estimation methods for QPSK CO-OFDM transmission

Coherent optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (CO-OFDM) is an attractive transmission technique to virtually eliminate intersymbol interference caused by chromatic dispersion and polarization-mode dispersion. Design, development, and operation of CO-OFDM systems require simple, efficient, and reliable methods of their performance evaluation. In this paper, we demonstrate an accurate bit error rate estimation method for QPSK CO-OFDM transmission based on the probability density function of the received QPSK symbols. By comparing with other known approaches, including data-aided and nondata-aided error vector magnitude, we show that the proposed method offers the most accurate estimate of the system performance for both single channel and wavelength division multiplexing QPSK CO-OFDM transmission systems. © 2014 IEEE.

AllerTOP v.2 - a server for in silico prediction of allergens

Allergy is an overreaction by the immune system to a previously encountered, ordinarily harmless substance - typically proteins - resulting in skin rash, swelling of mucous membranes, sneezing or wheezing, or other abnormal conditions. The use of modified proteins is increasingly widespread: their presence in food, commercial products, such as washing powder, and medical therapeutics and diagnostics, makes predicting and identifying potential allergens a crucial societal issue. The prediction of allergens has been explored widely using bioinformatics, with many tools being developed in the last decade; many of these are freely available online. Here, we report a set of novel models for allergen prediction utilizing amino acid E-descriptors, auto- and cross-covariance transformation, and several machine learning methods for classification, including logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), naïve Bayes (NB), random forest (RF), multilayer perceptron (MLP) and k nearest neighbours (kNN). The best performing method was kNN with 85.3% accuracy at 5-fold cross-validation. The resulting model has been implemented in a revised version of the AllerTOP server (http://www.ddg-pharmfac.net/AllerTOP). © Springer-Verlag 2014.

A geometrical model for surface roughness prediction when face milling Al 7075-T7351 with square insert tools

Surface quality is important in engineering and a vital aspect of it is surface roughness, since it plays an important role in wear resistance, ductility, tensile, and fatigue strength for machined parts. This paper reports on a research study on the development of a geometrical model for surface roughness prediction when face milling with square inserts. The model is based on a geometrical analysis of the recreation of the tool trail left on the machined surface. The model has been validated with experimental data obtained for high speed milling of aluminum alloy (Al 7075-T7351) when using a wide range of cutting speed, feed per tooth, axial depth of cut and different values of tool nose radius (0.8. mm and 2.5. mm), using the Taguchi method as the design of experiments. The experimental roughness was obtained by measuring the surface roughness of the milled surfaces with a non-contact profilometer. The developed model can be used for any combination of material workpiece and tool, when tool flank wear is not considered and is suitable for using any tool diameter with any number of teeth and tool nose radius. The results show that the developed model achieved an excellent performance with almost 98% accuracy in terms of predicting the surface roughness when compared to the experimental data. © 2014 The Society of Manufacturing Engineers.

Measurement and compensation of pivot point positional error on five-axis machines

Measuring and compensating the pivot points of five-axis machine tools is always challenging and very time consuming. This paper presents a newly developed approach for automatic measurement and compensation of pivot point positional errors on five-axis machine tools. Machine rotary axis errors are measured using a circular test. This method has been tested on five-axis machine tools with swivel table configuration. Results show that up to 99% of the positional errors of the rotary axis can be compensated by using this approach.

Artificial neural networks for surface roughness prediction when face milling Al 7075-T7351

In this work, different artificial neural networks (ANN) are developed for the prediction of surface roughness (R a) values in Al alloy 7075-T7351 after face milling machining process. The radial base (RBNN), feed forward (FFNN), and generalized regression (GRNN) networks were selected, and the data used for training these networks were derived from experiments conducted using a high-speed milling machine. The Taguchi design of experiment was applied to reduce the time and cost of the experiments. From this study, the performance of each ANN used in this research was measured with the mean square error percentage and it was observed that FFNN achieved the best results. Also the Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated to analyze the correlation between the five inputs (cutting speed, feed per tooth, axial depth of cut, chip°s width, and chip°s thickness) selected for the network with the selected output (surface roughness). Results showed a strong correlation between the chip thickness and the surface roughness followed by the cutting speed. © ASM International.

A Note on Bayesian Estimation for the Negative-Binomial Model

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F15.

Comparison of numerical bit error rate estimation methods in 112Gbs QPSK CO-OFDM transmission

We demonstrate an accurate BER estimation method for QPSK CO-OFDM transmission based on the probability density function of the received QPSK symbols. Using a 112Gbs QPSK CO-OFDM transmission as an example, we show that this method offers the most accurate estimate of the system's performance in comparison with other known approaches.

Short-term wind power forecasting using Gaussian processes

Since wind has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safety and economics of wind energy utilization. In this paper, we investigate a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: one-day-ahead wind power forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. Firstly the wind speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP. Then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due the turbine controlling strategy, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output. To validate the proposed approach, two real world datasets were used for model construction and testing. The simulation results were compared with the persistence method and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs); the proposed model achieves about 11% improvement in forecasting accuracy (Mean Absolute Error) compared to the ANN model on one dataset, and nearly 5% improvement on another.

Nonlinear limit of alternative method to 2 × 2 MIMO for LTE RoF system

Owing to the limited cell size of eNodeB (eNB), the relay node has emerged as an attractive solution for the long-term evolution (LTE) system. The nonlinear limit of the alternative method to multipleinput and multiple-output (MIMO) based on frequency division multiplexing (FDM) for orthogonal FDM (OFDM) is analysed over varying transmission spans. In this reported work, it is shown that the degradation pattern over the linear, intermixing and nonlinear propagation regions is consistent for the 2 and the 2.6 GHz bands. The proposed bands experienced a linear increase in the error vector magnitude (EVM) for both the linear and the nonlinear regions proportional to the increasing transmission spans. In addition, an optical launch power between -2 and 2 dBm achieved a significantly lower EVM than the LTE limit of 8% for the 10-60 km spans. © The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2014.