Short-term forecasting of power demand in the Nord Pool market

Sähkönkulutuksen lyhyen aikavälin ennustamista on tutkittu jo pitkään. Pohjoismaisien sähkömarkkinoiden vapautuminen on vaikuttanut sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Aluksi työssä perehdyttiin aiheeseen liittyvään kirjallisuuteen. Sähkönkulutuksen käyttäytymistä tutkittiin eri aikoina. Lämpötila tilastojen käyttökelpoisuutta arvioitiin sähkönkulutusennustetta ajatellen. Kulutus ennusteet tehtiin tunneittain ja ennustejaksona käytettiin yhtä viikkoa. Työssä tutkittiin sähkönkulutuksen- ja lämpötiladatan saatavuutta ja laatua Nord Poolin markkina-alueelta. Syötettävien tietojen ominaisuudet vaikuttavat tunnittaiseen sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Sähkönkulutuksen ennustamista varten mallinnettiin kaksi lähestymistapaa. Testattavina malleina käytettiin regressiomallia ja autoregressiivistä mallia (autoregressive model, ARX). Mallien parametrit estimoitiin pienimmän neliösumman menetelmällä. Tulokset osoittavat että kulutus- ja lämpötiladata on tarkastettava jälkikäteen koska reaaliaikaisen syötetietojen laatu on huonoa. Lämpötila vaikuttaa kulutukseen talvella, mutta se voidaan jättää huomiotta kesäkaudella. Regressiomalli on vakaampi kuin ARX malli. Regressiomallin virhetermi voidaan mallintaa aikasarjamallia hyväksikäyttäen.

Influence of software development process quality on product quality

Ohjelmistojen tärkeys nykypäivän yhteiskunnalle kasvaa jatkuvasti. Monia ohjelmistoprojekteja vaivaavat ongelmat aikataulussa pysymisestä, korkean tuottavuuden ylläpitämisestä ja riittävän korkeasta laadusta. Ohjelmistokehitysprosessien parantamisessa on naiden ongelmien minimoimiseksi tehty suuria investointeja. Investointien syynä on ollut olettamus ohjelmistokehityksen kapasiteetin suora riippuvuus tuotteen laadusta. Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli tutkia Ohjelmistokehitysprosessien parantamisen mahdollisuuksia. Olemassaolevat ohjelmistokehityksen ja Ohjelmistokehitysprosessin parantamisen mallit, tekniikat ja metodologiat esiteltiin. Esiteltyjen mallien, tekniikoiden ja metodologioiden soveltuvuus analysoitiin ja suositus mallien käytöstä annettiin.

Software process improvement using an electronic process guide

Kasvava kiinnostus ohjelmistojen laatua kohtaan on herättänyt ohjelmistoprosesseihin ja niiden kehittämiseen kohdistuvaa huomiota viime vuosina. Ohjelmistoyritykset ympäri maailmaa ovat ottaneet käyttöön ohjelmistoprosessin kehittämismalleja, kuten CMM ja SPICE, pyrkiessään kohti parempilaatuisia ohjelmistotuotteita. Samalla on huomattu, että tehokas prosessien parantaminen ja suorittaminen tarvitsee tuekseen kuvauksen prosessista, jotta prosessin perusteellinen ymmärtäminen ja kommunikointi olisi mahdollista. Ohjelmistoprosesseja voidaan kuvata monilla eri tavoilla. Prosessiopas on prosessin esitysmuoto, jonka päätarkoituksena on helpottaa prosessin ymmärtämistä ja kommunikointia. Elektroninen prosessiopas on Web-teknologiaa hyödyntävä prosessiopas. Tässä työssä luodaan kehitysympäristö elektronisille prosessioppaille, joiden tarkoituksena on tukea ohjelmistoprosessin kehittämistä ja suorittamista. Ympäristö mahdollistaa ohjelmistoprosessinmallintamisen sekä yksilöllisten oppaiden luomisen ja muokkaamisen. Kehitysympäristöä käytetään mallintamaan tietoliikenneohjelmistoja valmistavan yrityksen ohjelmistoprosessia sekä luomaan elektronisia prosessioppaita tukemaan prosessin kehitystä ja suorittamista. Lopuksi pohditaan prosessioppaiden tarjoamaa tukea sekä mahdollisuuksia kohdeyrityksessä.

Quality of Disease Management and Risk of Mortality in English Primary Care Practices

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether better management of chronic conditions by family practices reduces mortality risk. DATA: Two random samples of 5 million patients registered with over 8,000 English family practices followed up for 4 years (2004/5-2007/8). Measures of the quality of disease management for 10 conditions were constructed for each family practice for each year. The outcome measure was an indicator taking the value 1 if the patient died during a specified year, 0 otherwise. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-section and multilevel panel data multiple logistic regressions were estimated. Covariates included age, gender, morbidity, hospitalizations, attributed socio-economic characteristics, and local health care supply measures. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Although a composite measure of the quality of disease management for all 10 conditions was significantly associated with lower mortality, only the quality of stroke care was significant when all 10 quality measures were entered in the regression. CONCLUSIONS: The panel data results suggest that a 1 percent improvement in the quality of stroke care could reduce the annual number of deaths in England by 782 [95 percent CI: 423, 1140]. A longer study period may be necessary to detect any mortality impact of better management of other conditions.

Describing and Analyzing Information Technology through Total Quality Management and Process Management: Case Stora Enso Newsprint

Laatu on osaltaan vahvistamassa asemaansa liike-elämässä yritysten kilpaillessa kansainvälisillä markkinoilla niin hinnalla kuin laadulla. Tämä suuntaus on synnyttänyt useita laatuohjelmia, joita käytetään ahkerasti yritysten kokonais- valtaisen laatujohtamisen (TQM) toteuttamisessa. Laatujohtaminen kattaa yrityksen kaikki toiminnot ja luo vaatimuksia myös yrityksen tukitoimintojen kehittämiselle ja parantamiselle. Näihin lukeutuu myös tämän tutkimuksen kohde tietohallinto (IT). Tutkielman tavoitteena oli kuvata IT prosessin nykytila. Tutkielmassa laadittu prosessikuvaus pohjautuu prosessijohtamisen teoriaan ja kohdeyrityksen käyttämään laatupalkinto kriteeristöön. Tutkimusmenetelmänä prosessin nykytilan selvittämiseksi käytettiin teemahaastattelutta. Prosessin nykytilan ja sille asetettujen vaatimusten selvittämiseksi haastateltiin IT prosessin asiakkaita. Prosessianalyysi, tärkeimpien ala-prosessien tunnistaminen ja parannusalueiden löytäminen ovat tämän tutkielman keskeisemmät tulokset. Tutkielma painottui IT prosessin heikkouksien ja parannuskohteiden etsimiseen jatkuvan kehittämisen pohjaksi, ei niinkään prosessin radikaaliin uudistamiseen. Tutkielmassa esitellään TQM:n periaatteet, laatutyökaluja sekä prosessijohtamisen terminologia, periaatteet ja sen systemaattinen toteutus. Työ antaa myös kuvan siitä, miten TQM ja prosessijohtaminen niveltyvät yrityksen laatutyössä.

The Optimisation of the Draft Tube of a Hydro Power Plant at Off-Design Conditions

Several possible methods of increasing the efficiency and power of hydro power plants by improving the flow passages are investigated in this stydy. The theoretical background of diffuser design and its application to the optimisation of hydraulic turbine draft tubes is presented in the first part of this study. Several draft tube modernisation projects that have been carried out recently are discussed. Also, a method of increasing the efficiency of the draft tube by injecting a high velocity jet into the boundary layer is presented. Methods of increasing the head of a hydro power plant by using an ejector or a jet pump are discussed in the second part of this work. The theoretical principles of various ejector and jet pump types are presented and four different methods of calculating them are examined in more detail. A self-made computer code is used to calculate the gain in the head for two example power plants. Suitable ejector installations for the example plants are also discussed. The efficiency of the ejector power was found to be in the range 6 - 15 % for conventional head increasers, and 30 % for the jet pump at its optimum operating point. In practice, it is impossible to install an optimised jet pump with a 30 % efficiency into the draft tube as this would considerabely reduce the efficiency of the draft tube at normal operating conditions. This demonstrates, however, the potential for improvement which lies in conventional head increaser technology. This study is based on previous publications and on published test results. No actual laboratory measurements were made for this study. Certain aspects of modelling the flow in the draft tube using computational fluid dynamics are discussed in the final part of this work. The draft tube inlet velocity field is a vital boundary condition for such a calculation. Several previously measured velocity fields that have successfully been utilised in such flow calculations are presented herein.

Health-related quality-of-life in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma in the FIRST trial: lenalidomide plus low-dose dexamethasone versus melphalan, prednisone, thalidomide.

We compared the health-related quality-of-life of patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma aged over 65 years or transplant-ineligible in the pivotal, phase III FIRST trial. Patients received: i) continuous lenalidomide and low-dose dexamethasone until disease progression; ii) fixed cycles of lenalidomide and low-dose dexamethasone for 18 months; or iii) fixed cycles of melphalan, prednisone, thalidomide for 18 months. Data were collected using the validated questionnaires (QLQ-MY20, QLQ-C30, and EQ-5D). The analysis focused on the EQ-5D utility value and six domains pre-selected for their perceived clinical relevance. Lenalidomide and low-dose dexamethasone, and melphalan, prednisone, thalidomide improved patients' health-related quality-of-life from baseline over the duration of the study across all pre-selected domains of the QLQ-C30 and EQ-5D. In the QLQ-MY20, lenalidomide and low-dose dexamethasone demonstrated a significantly greater reduction in the Disease Symptoms domain compared with melphalan, prednisone, thalidomide at Month 3, and significantly lower scores for QLQ-MY20 Side Effects of Treatment at all post-baseline assessments except Month 18. Linear mixed-model repeated-measures analyses confirmed the results observed in the cross-sectional analysis. Continuous lenalidomide and low-dose dexamethasone delays disease progression versus melphalan, prednisone, thalidomide and has been associated with a clinically meaningful improvement in health-related quality-of-life. These results further establish continuous lenalidomide and low-dose dexamethasone as a new standard of care for initial therapy of myeloma by demonstrating superior health-related quality-of-life during treatment, compared with melphalan, prednisone, thalidomide.

Towards high-quality simultaneous EEG-fMRI at 7T: Detection and reduction of EEG artifacts due to head motion.

The enhanced functional sensitivity offered by ultra-high field imaging may significantly benefit simultaneous EEG-fMRI studies, but the concurrent increases in artifact contamination can strongly compromise EEG data quality. In the present study, we focus on EEG artifacts created by head motion in the static B0 field. A novel approach for motion artifact detection is proposed, based on a simple modification of a commercial EEG cap, in which four electrodes are non-permanently adapted to record only magnetic induction effects. Simultaneous EEG-fMRI data were acquired with this setup, at 7T, from healthy volunteers undergoing a reversing-checkerboard visual stimulation paradigm. Data analysis assisted by the motion sensors revealed that, after gradient artifact correction, EEG signal variance was largely dominated by pulse artifacts (81-93%), but contributions from spontaneous motion (4-13%) were still comparable to or even larger than those of actual neuronal activity (3-9%). Multiple approaches were tested to determine the most effective procedure for denoising EEG data incorporating motion sensor information. Optimal results were obtained by applying an initial pulse artifact correction step (AAS-based), followed by motion artifact correction (based on the motion sensors) and ICA denoising. On average, motion artifact correction (after AAS) yielded a 61% reduction in signal power and a 62% increase in VEP trial-by-trial consistency. Combined with ICA, these improvements rose to a 74% power reduction and an 86% increase in trial consistency. Overall, the improvements achieved were well appreciable at single-subject and single-trial levels, and set an encouraging quality mark for simultaneous EEG-fMRI at ultra-high field.

Eosinophilic oesophagitis: relationship of quality of life with clinical, endoscopic and histological activity.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge about determinants of quality of life (QoL) in eosinophilic oesophagitis (EoO) patients helps to identify patients at risk of experiencing poor QoL and to tailor therapeutic interventions accordingly. AIM: To evaluate the impact of symptom severity, endoscopic and histological activity on EoE-specific QoL in adult EoE patients. METHODS: Ninety-eight adult EoE patients were prospectively included (64% male, median age 39 years). Patients completed two validated instruments to assess EoE-specific QoL (EoO-QoL-A) and symptom severity (adult EoE activity index patient-reported outcome) and then underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy with biopsy sampling. Physicians reported standardised information on EoE-associated endoscopic and histological alterations. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the relationship between QoL and symptom severity. Linear regression and analysis of variance was used to quantify the extent to which variations in severity of EoE symptoms, endoscopic and histological findings explain variations in QoL. RESULTS: Quality of life strongly correlated with symptom severity (r = 0.610, P < 0.001). While the variation in severity of symptoms, endoscopic and histological findings alone explained 38%, 35% and 22% of the variability in EoE-related QoL, respectively, these together explained 60% of variation. Symptom severity explained 18-35% of the variation in each of the five QoL subscale scores. CONCLUSIONS: Eosinophilic oesophagitis symptom severity and biological disease activity determine QoL in adult patients with eosinophilic oesophagitis. Therefore, reduction in both eosinophilic oesophagitis symptoms as well as biological disease activity is essential for improvement of QoL in adult patients. Clinicaltrials.gov number, NCT00939263.

Sanitary quality of edible bivalve mollusks in Southeastern Brazil using an UV based depuration system

The increase in seafood production, especially in mariculture worldwide, has brought out the need of continued monitoring of shellfish production areas in order to ensure safety to human consumption. The purpose of this research was to evaluate pathogenic protozoa, viruses and bacteria contamination in oysters before and after UV depuration procedure, in brackish waters at all stages of cultivation and treatment steps and to enumerate microbiological indicators of fecal contamination from production site up to depuration site in an oyster cooperative located at the Southeastern estuarine area of Brazil. Oysters and brackish water were collected monthly from September 2009 to November 2010. Four sampling sites were selected for enteropathogens analysis: site 1- oyster growth, site 2- catchment water (before UV depuration procedure), site 3 - filtration stage of water treatment (only for protozoa analysis) and site 4- oyster's depuration tank. Three microbiological indicators ! were examined at sites 1, 2 and 4. The following pathogenic microorganisms were searched: Giardia cysts, Cryptosporidium oocysts, Human Adenovirus (HAdV), Hepatitis A virus (HAV), Human Norovirus (HnoV) (genogroups I and II), JC strain Polyomavirus (JCPyV) and Salmonella sp. Analysis consisted of molecular detection (qPCR) for viruses (oysters and water samples); immunomagnetic separation followed by direct immunofluorescence assay for Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts and also molecular detection (PCR) for the latter (oysters and water samples); commercial kit (Reveal-Neogee (R)) for Salmonella analysis (oysters). Giardia was the most prevalent pathogen in all sites where it was detected: 36.3%, 18.1%, 36.3% and 27.2% of water from sites 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively; 36.3% of oysters from site 1 and 54.5% of depurated oysters were harboring Giardia cysts. The huge majority of contaminated samples were classified as Giardia duodenalis. HAdv was detected in water and o! ysters from growth site and HnoV GI in two batches of oysters ! (site 1) in huge concentrations (2.11 x 10(13), 3.10 x 10(12) gc/g). In depuration tank site, Salmonella sp., HAV (4.84 x 10(3)) and HnoV GII (7.97 x 10(14)) were detected once in different batches of oysters. Cryptosporidium spp. oocysts were present in 9.0% of water samples from site four. These results reflect the contamination of oysters even when UV depuration procedures are employed in this shellfish treatment plant. Moreover, the molecular comprehension of the sources of contamination is necessary to develop an efficient management strategy allied to shellfish treatment improvement to prevent foodborne illnesses. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calidad de vida y cáncer de próstata: un programa progresivo de fuerza-resistencia = Quality of life and prostate cancer: a progressive resistance strength program

This article presents the design and implementation of a progressive resistance strength program adapted to prostate cancer. The initial model corresponds to the guide of the American College Sports Medicine Position Stand (ACSM, 2009). This program includes the most habitual symptoms related to the illness and its treatments. The study design is quasi-experimental. The sample is 33 subjects in treatment phase. Study variables are tumour classification TNM, anthropometric measures, resistance strength, hypertension, fatigue, incontinence, pain and quality of life. After 24 weeks a significant improvement on resistance strength capacity is observed. This result is more consistent in lower extremities. Also improves hypertension, urinary incontinence, pain and quality of life. As conclusion, the improvement of the quality of life is mediated by the functional and physical capacity of the ill person

Robotic-Assisted Surgery Improves the Quality of Total Mesorectal Excision for Rectal Cancer Compared to Laparoscopy: Results of a Case-Controlled Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The use of a robotic surgical system is claimed to allow precise traction and counter-traction, especially in a narrow pelvis. Whether this translates to improvement of the quality of the resected specimen is not yet clear. The aim of the study was to compare the quality of the TME and the short-term oncological outcome between robotic and laparoscopic rectal cancer resections. METHODS: 20 consecutive robotic TME performed in a single institution for rectal cancer (Rob group) were matched 1:2 to 40 laparoscopic resections (Lap group) for gender, body mass index (BMI), and distance from anal verge on rigid proctoscopy. The quality of TME was assessed by 2 blinded and independent pathologists and reported according to international standardized guidelines. RESULTS: Both samples were well matched for gender, BMI (median 25.9 vs. 24.2 kg/m(2), p = 0.24), and level of the tumor (4.1 vs. 4.8 cm, p = 0.20). The quality of the TME was better in the Robotic group (complete TME: 95 vs. 55 %; p = 0.0003, nearly complete TME 5 vs. 37 %; p = 0.04, incomplete TME 0 vs. 8 %, p = 0.09). A trend for lower positive circumferential margin was observed in the Robotic group (10 vs. 25 %, p = 0.1). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that robotic-assisted surgery improves the quality of TME for rectal cancer. Whether this translates to better oncological outcome needs to be further investigated.

Adaptive optimization schemes for mobile VoIP applications Battery life and call quality aspects

In this thesis programmatic, application-layer means for better energy-efficiency in the VoIP application domain are studied. The work presented concentrates on optimizations which are suitable for VoIP-implementations utilizing SIP and IEEE 802.11 technologies. Energy-saving optimizations can have an impact on perceived call quality, and thus energy-saving means are studied together with those factors affecting perceived call quality. In this thesis a general view on a topic is given. Based on theory, adaptive optimization schemes for dynamic controlling of application's operation are proposed. A runtime quality model, capable of being integrated into optimization schemes, is developed for VoIP call quality estimation. Based on proposed optimization schemes, some power consumption measurements are done to find out achievable advantages. Measurement results show that a reduction in power consumption is possible to achieve with the help of adaptive optimization schemes.

Fair value versus historic cost-valuation for biological assets: Implications for the quality of financial information

[spa] Este trabajo realiza un estudio empírico sobre los efectos, que se señalan en las discusiones teóricas, de la utilización del valor razonable (VR) frente al coste histórico (CH), utilizando dos muestras de explotaciones agrícolas, una de las cuales valora sus activos biológicos a CH y la otra a VR. No se encontraron diferencias significativas en los beneficios e ingresos entre ambas muestras, ni siquiera en sus volatilidades. Tampoco se encontraron diferencias significativas en rentabilidad, manipulación contable, ni en el poder de ambos criterios de valoración para predecir los flujos de tesorería. Por el contrario, la mayor parte de los tests realizados revelan un mayor poder de los beneficios calculados bajo el VR para la predicción de los beneficios futuros, respecto de cuando son calculados bajo el CH. El estudio proporciona también evidencia empírica de prácticas contables defectuosas de CH en el sector agrícola, concluyendo que el VR puede representar un criterio de valoración interesante para un sector, como el agrícola, caracterizado por el predominio de pequeñas explotaciones familiares.

Fair value versus historic cost-valuation for biological assets: Implications for the quality of financial information

[spa] Este trabajo realiza un estudio empírico sobre los efectos, que se señalan en las discusiones teóricas, de la utilización del valor razonable (VR) frente al coste histórico (CH), utilizando dos muestras de explotaciones agrícolas, una de las cuales valora sus activos biológicos a CH y la otra a VR. No se encontraron diferencias significativas en los beneficios e ingresos entre ambas muestras, ni siquiera en sus volatilidades. Tampoco se encontraron diferencias significativas en rentabilidad, manipulación contable, ni en el poder de ambos criterios de valoración para predecir los flujos de tesorería. Por el contrario, la mayor parte de los tests realizados revelan un mayor poder de los beneficios calculados bajo el VR para la predicción de los beneficios futuros, respecto de cuando son calculados bajo el CH. El estudio proporciona también evidencia empírica de prácticas contables defectuosas de CH en el sector agrícola, concluyendo que el VR puede representar un criterio de valoración interesante para un sector, como el agrícola, caracterizado por el predominio de pequeñas explotaciones familiares.