The ghost of past species occurrence: improving species distribution models for presence-only data

1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.

Knowing the past to predict the future: land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs

Biological invasions and land-use changes are two major causes of the global modifications of biodiversity. Habitat suitability models are the tools of choice to predict potential distributions of invasive species. Although land-use is a key driver of alien species invasions, it is often assumed that land-use is constant in time. Here we combine historical and present day information, to evaluate whether land-use changes could explain the dynamic of invasion of the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana (=Lithobathes catesbeianus) in Northern Italy, from the 1950s to present-day. We used maxent to build habitat suitability models, on the basis of past (1960s, 1980s) and present-day data on land-uses and species distribution. For example, we used models built using the 1960s data to predict distribution in the 1980s, and so on. Furthermore, we used land-use scenarios to project suitability in the future. Habitat suitability models predicted well the spread of bullfrogs in the subsequent temporal step. Models considering land-use changes predicted invasion dynamics better than models assuming constant land-use over the last 50 years. Scenarios of future land-use suggest that suitability will remain similar in the next years. Habitat suitability models can help to understand and predict the dynamics of invasions; however, land-use is not constant in time: land-use modifications can strongly affect invasions; furthermore, both land management and the suitability of a given land-use class may vary in time. An integration of land-use changes in studies of biological invasions can help to improve management strategies.

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

Differential expression of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs): tissue distribution of PPAR-alpha, -beta, and -gamma in the adult rat.

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) are members of the nuclear hormone receptor superfamily that can be activated by various xenobiotics and natural fatty acids. These transcription factors primarily regulate genes involved in lipid metabolism and also play a role in adipocyte differentiation. We present the expression patterns of the PPAR subtypes in the adult rat, determined by in situ hybridization using specific probes for PPAR-alpha, -beta and -gamma, and by immunohistochemistry using a polyclonal antibody that recognizes the three rat PPAR subtypes. In numerous cell types from either ectodermal, mesodermal, or endodermal origin, PPARs are coexpressed, with relative levels varying between them from one cell type to the other. PPAR-alpha is highly expressed in hepatocytes, cardiomyocytes, enterocytes, and the proximal tubule cells of kidney. PPAR-beta is expressed ubiquitously and often at higher levels than PPAR-alpha and -gamma. PPAR-gamma is expressed predominantly in adipose tissue and the immune system. Our results suggest new potential directions to investigate the functions of the different PPAR subtypes.

Combining food web and species distribution models for improved community projections

The ability to model biodiversity patterns is of prime importance in this era of severe environmental crisis. Species assemblage along environmental gradient is subject to the interplay of biotic interactions in complement to abiotic environmental filtering. Accounting for complex biotic interactions for a wide array of species remains so far challenging. Here, we propose to use food web models that can infer the potential interaction links between species as a constraint in species distribution models. Using a plant-herbivore (butterfly) interaction dataset, we demonstrate that this combined approach is able to improve both species distribution and community forecasts. Most importantly, this combined approach is very useful in rendering models of more generalist species that have multiple potential interaction links, where gap in the literature may be recurrent. Our combined approach points a promising direction forward to model the spatial variation of entire species interaction networks. Our work has implications for studies of range shifting species and invasive species biology where it may be unknown how a given biota might interact with a potential invader or in future climate.

A one-year monitoring of nicotine use in sport: frontier between potential performance enhancement and addiction issues.

Tobacco consumption is a global epidemic responsible for a vast burden of disease. With pharmacological properties sought-after by consumers and responsible for addiction issues, nicotine is the main reason of this phenomenon. Accordingly, smokeless tobacco products are of growing popularity in sport owing to potential performance enhancing properties and absence of adverse effects on the respiratory system. Nevertheless, nicotine does not appear on the 2011 World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) Prohibited List or Monitoring Program by lack of a comprehensive large-scale prevalence survey. Thus, this work describes a one-year monitoring study on urine specimens from professional athletes of different disciplines covering 2010 and 2011. A method for the detection and quantification of nicotine, its major metabolites (cotinine, trans-3-hydroxycotinine, nicotine-N'-oxide and cotinine-N-oxide) and minor tobacco alkaloids (anabasine, anatabine and nornicotine) was developed, relying on ultra-high pressure liquid chromatography coupled to triple quadrupole mass spectrometry (UHPLC-TQ-MS/MS). A simple and fast dilute-and-shoot sample treatment was performed, followed by hydrophilic interaction chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HILIC-MS/MS) operated in positive electrospray ionization (ESI) mode with multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) data acquisition. After method validation, assessing the prevalence of nicotine consumption in sport involved analysis of 2185 urine samples, accounting for 43 different sports. Concentrations distribution of major nicotine metabolites, minor nicotine metabolites and tobacco alkaloids ranged from 10 (LLOQ) to 32,223, 6670 and 538 ng/mL, respectively. Compounds of interest were detected in trace levels in 23.0% of urine specimens, with concentration levels corresponding to an exposure within the last three days for 18.3% of samples. Likewise, hypothesizing conservative concentration limits for active nicotine consumption prior and/or during sport practice (50 ng/mL for nicotine, cotinine and trans-3-hydroxycotinine and 25 ng/mL for nicotine-N'-oxide, cotinine-N-oxide, anabasine, anatabine and nornicotine) revealed a prevalence of 15.3% amongst athletes. While this number may appear lower than the worldwide smoking prevalence of around 25%, focusing the study on selected sports highlighted more alarming findings. Indeed, active nicotine consumption in ice hockey, skiing, biathlon, bobsleigh, skating, football, basketball, volleyball, rugby, American football, wrestling and gymnastics was found to range between 19.0 and 55.6%. Therefore, considering the adverse effects of smoking on the respiratory tract and numerous health threats detrimental to sport practice at top level, likelihood of smokeless tobacco consumption for performance enhancement is greatly supported.

Oxidative potential of a panel of carbonaceous and metallic nanoparticles

Characterisation of nanoparticles (NP) based on size distribution, surface area, reactivity, and aggregation status of nanoparticles (NP) are of prime importance because they are usually closely related to toxicity. To date, most of the toxicity studies are quite time and money consuming. In the present study we report the oxidative properties of a panel of various NP (four Carbonaceous, nine Metal oxides, and one Metal as showed in Table 1) assessed with an acellular reactivity test measuring dithiothreitol (DTT) consumption (Sauvain et al. 2008). Such a test allows determining the ability of NP to catalyse the transfer of electrons from DTT to oxygen. DTT is used as a reductant species. NP were diluted and sonicated in Tween 80® to a final concentration of 50 g/mL. Printex 90 was diluted 5 times before doing the DTT assay because of its expected higher activity. Suspensions were characterised for NP size distribution by Nanoparticle Tracking Analysis (Nanosight©). Fresh solutions were incubated with DTT (100 μM). Aliquots were taken every 5 min and the remaining DTT was determined by reacting it with DTNB. The reaction rate was determined for NP suspensions and blank in parallel. The mean Brownian size distribution of NP agglomerates in suspension is presented in Table 1. D values correspond to 10th, and 50th percentiles of the particle diameters. All the NP agglomerated in Tween 80 with a D50 size corresponding to at least twice their primary size, except for Al2O3 (300 nm). The DTT test showed Printex 90 sample to be the most reactive one, followed by Diesel EPA and Nanotubes. Most of the metallic NP was nonresponding toward this test, except for NiO and Ag which reacted positively and ZnO which presented the most negative reactivity (see Figure 1). This last observation suggests that electron transfer between DTT and oxygen is hindered in presence of ZnO compared with the blank. Such "stabilization" could be attributable to ZnO dissolution and complexation between Zn2+ ions and DTT.

Epidemiological study of bancroftian filariasis in Recife, Northeastern Brazil

Wuchereria bancrofti in Pernambuco was first documented in 1952 (Azevedo & Dobbin 1952), and since then it has been reported in surveys carried out in selected areas of Recife. Several surveys were carried out from 1981 to 1991 by SUCAM. In the 1985 SUCAM's report the disease is considered under control. The CPqAM Filariasis Research Program was established in 1985 and a filarial survey was carried out in the town of Olinda, Greater Recife. In order to verify the real epidemiological situation, a study was conducted in the city of Recife. 21/36 of the Special Zones of Social Interest (ZEIS), were randomly selected for the present study. From 10,664 persons screened, 683 were positive and the prevalence rate for microfilaraemia (mf) varied from 0.6% to 14.9%. A mean mf prevalence of 6.5%, showed that the infection occurs in a wide geographic distribution in Greater Recife and that the intensity of transmission is a real and potential threat to public health in affected communities. Mf rate among males and females differed significantly. Due to the rapid increase in population, unplanned urban settlements, poor sanitary facilities and the favorable geographical conditions to the development of the vector, filariasis may actually be increasing in Recife.

Simian malaria at two sites in the Brazilian Amazon - II: Vertical distribution and frequency of anopheline species inside and outside the forest

An anopheline survey was carried out in two simian malaria areas in the Brazilian Amazon, Balbina and Samuel, to determine the potential vectors of Plasmodium brasilianum. The most abundant and/or acrodendrophilic anophelines in the forest and the most likely vector were Anopheles mediopunctatus, An. nuneztovari, An. oswaldoi, An. triannulatus and An. shannoni. An. darlingi and An. marajoara were captured essentially in anthropic habitats outside the forest and are unlikely to be involved in the transmission of P. brasilianum among monkeys within the forests and from monkeys to man in their surroundings in the Amazon.

Microgeographical patterns of schistosomiasis and water contact behavior; examples from Africa and Brazil

This paper examines the results of spatial (microgeographical) water contact/schistosomiasis studies in two African (Egyptian and Kenyan) and one Brazilian communities. All three studies used traditional cartographic and statistical methods but one of them emploeyd also GIS (geographical information systems) tools. The advantage of GIS and their potential role in schistosomiasis control are briefly described. The three cases revealed considerable variation in the spatial distribution of water contact, transmission parameters and infection levels at the household and individual levels. All studies showed considerable variation in the prevalence and intensity of infection between households. They also show a variable influence of distance on water contact behavior associated with type of activity, age, sex, socioeconomic level, perception of water quality, season and availability of water in the home. Water contact behavior and schistosomiasis were evaluated in the Brazilian village of Nova União within the context of water sharing between household and age/sex groups. Recommendations are made for further spatial studies on the transmission and control of schistosomiasis.

A review of the ticks (Acari, Ixodida) of Brazil, their hosts and geographic distribution - 1. The State of Rio Grande do Sul, Southern Brazil

A review of the ticks (Acari, Ixodida) of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, southern Brazil, was completed as a step towards a definitive list (currently indicated as 12) of such species, their hosts and distribution. The ticks: Argas miniatus (poultry), Ixodes loricatus (opossums), Amblyomma aureolatum (dogs), A. calcaratum (anteaters), A. cooperi (capybaras), A. nodosum (anteaters), A. tigrinum (dogs) (Neotropical) and Rhipicephalus sanguineus (dogs) (introduced, cosmopolitan, Afrotropical) were confirmed as present, in addition to the predominant, Boophilus microplus (cattle) (introduced, pan-tropical, Oriental). Of the further 18 species thus far reported in the literature as present in the state, but unavailable for examination: only Ornithodoros brasiliensis (humans and their habitations) (Neotropical), Ixodes affinis (deer) (Nearctic/Neotropical) and I. auritulus (birds) (Nearctic/Neotropical/Afrotropical/ Australasian) are considered likely; 13 species would benefit from corroborative local data but the majority appear unlikely; reports of A. maculatum (Nearctic/Neotropical, but circum-Caribbean) are considered erroneous; the validity of A. fuscum is in doubt. The very recent, first known report of the tropical Anocentor nitens (horses)(Nearctic/Neotropical), but still apparent absence of the tropical A. cajennense (catholic) (Nearctic/Neotropical) and the sub-tropical/temperate Ixodes pararicinus (cattle) (Neotropical) in Rio Grande do Sul are important for considerations on their current biogeographical distribution and its dynamics in South America. The state has relatively long established, introduced ("exotic"), Old World tick species (B. microplus, R. sanguineus) that continue to represent significant pests and disease vectors to their traditional, introduced domestic animal hosts, cattle and urban dogs. There are also indigenous, New World ticks (A. miniatus, O. brasiliensis, A. aureolatum, A. nitens), as both long established and possibly newly locally introduced species in the state, that should be considered as potential and emergent pests and pathogen vectors to humans and their more recently acquired, introduced domestic animal hosts; rural poultry, dogs and horses.

Preliminary regional rockfall hazard mapping using LIDAR-based slope frequency distribution and CONEFALL modeling

A factor limiting preliminary rockfall hazard mapping at regional scale is often the lack of knowledge of potential source areas. Nowadays, high resolution topographic data (LiDAR) can account for realistic landscape details even at large scale. With such fine-scale morphological variability, quantitative geomorphometric analyses become a relevant approach for delineating potential rockfall instabilities. Using digital elevation model (DEM)-based ?slope families? concept over areas of similar lithology and cliffs and screes zones available from the 1:25,000 topographic map, a susceptibility rockfall hazard map was drawn up in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland, in order to provide a relevant hazard overview. Slope surfaces over morphometrically-defined thresholds angles were considered as rockfall source zones. 3D modelling (CONEFALL) was then applied on each of the estimated source zones in order to assess the maximum runout length. Comparison with known events and other rockfall hazard assessments are in good agreement, showing that it is possible to assess rockfall activities over large areas from DEM-based parameters and topographical elements.

Hyperglycemia-induced abnormalities in rat and human corneas: the potential of second harmonic generation microscopy.

BACKGROUND: Second Harmonic Generation (SHG) microscopy recently appeared as an efficient optical imaging technique to probe unstained collagen-rich tissues like cornea. Moreover, corneal remodeling occurs in many diseases and precise characterization requires overcoming the limitations of conventional techniques. In this work, we focus on diabetes, which affects hundreds of million people worldwide and most often leads to diabetic retinopathy, with no early diagnostic tool. This study then aims to establish the potential of SHG microscopy for in situ detection and characterization of hyperglycemia-induced abnormalities in the Descemet's membrane, in the posterior cornea. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We studied corneas from age-matched control and Goto-Kakizaki rats, a spontaneous model of type 2 diabetes, and corneas from human donors with type 2 diabetes and without any diabetes. SHG imaging was compared to confocal microscopy, to histology characterization using conventional staining and transmitted light microscopy and to transmission electron microscopy. SHG imaging revealed collagen deposits in the Descemet's membrane of unstained corneas in a unique way compared to these gold standard techniques in ophthalmology. It provided background-free images of the three-dimensional interwoven distribution of the collagen deposits, with improved contrast compared to confocal microscopy. It also provided structural capability in intact corneas because of its high specificity to fibrillar collagen, with substantially larger field of view than transmission electron microscopy. Moreover, in vivo SHG imaging was demonstrated in Goto-Kakizaki rats. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study shows unambiguously the high potential of SHG microscopy for three-dimensional characterization of structural abnormalities in unstained corneas. Furthermore, our demonstration of in vivo SHG imaging opens the way to long-term dynamical studies. This method should be easily generalized to other structural remodeling of the cornea and SHG microscopy should prove to be invaluable for in vivo corneal pathological studies.

Predicting reptile distributions at the mesoscale: relation to climate and topography

Aim To explore the respective power of climate and topography to predict the distribution of reptiles in Switzerland, hence at a mesoscale level. A more detailed knowledge of these relationships, in combination with maps of the potential distribution derived from the models, is a valuable contribution to the design of conservation strategies. Location All of Switzerland. Methods Generalized linear models are used to derive predictive habitat distribution models from eco-geographical predictors in a geographical information system, using species data from a field survey conducted between 1980 and 1999. Results The maximum amount of deviance explained by climatic models is 65%, and 50% by topographical models. Low values were obtained with both sets of predictors for three species that are widely distributed in all parts of the country (Anguis fragilis , Coronella austriaca , and Natrix natrix), a result that suggests that including other important predictors, such as resources, should improve the models in further studies. With respect to topographical predictors, low values were also obtained for two species where we anticipated a strong response to aspect and slope, Podarcis muralis and Vipera aspis . Main conclusions Overall, both models and maps derived from climatic predictors more closely match the actual reptile distributions than those based on topography. These results suggest that the distributional limits of reptile species with a restricted range in Switzerland are largely set by climatic, predominantly temperature-related, factors.

The MIGCLIM R package - seamless integration of dispersal constraints into projections of species distribution models

The MIGCLIM R package is a function library for the open source R software that enables the implementation of species-specific dispersal constraints into projections of species distribution models under environmental change and/or landscape fragmentation scenarios. The model is based on a cellular automaton and the basic modeling unit is a cell that is inhabited or not. Model parameters include dispersal distance and kernel, long distance dispersal, barriers to dispersal, propagule production potential and habitat invasibility. The MIGCLIM R package has been designed to be highly flexible in the parameter values it accepts, and to offer good compatibility with existing species distribution modeling software. Possible applications include the projection of future species distributions under environmental change conditions and modeling the spread of invasive species.