Digital Photography in the Diagnosis and Follow-up of Ocular Diseases

Purpose: The aim of the present study was to develop and test new digital imaging equipment and methods for diagnosis and follow-up of ocular diseases. Methods: The whole material comprised 398 subjects (469 examined eyes), including 241 patients with melanocytic choroidal tumours, 56 patients with melanocytic iris tumours, 42 patients with diabetes, a 52-year old patient with chronic phase of VKH disease, a 30-year old patient with an old blunt eye injury, and 57 normal healthy subjects. Digital 50° (Topcon TRC 50 IA) and 45° (Canon CR6-45NM) fundus cameras, a new handheld digital colour videocamera for eye examinations (MediTell), a new subtraction method using the Topcon Image Net Program (Topcon corporation, Tokyo, Japan), a new method for digital IRT imaging of the iris we developed, and Zeiss photoslitlamp with a digital camera body were used for digital imaging. Results: Digital 50° red-free imaging had a sensitivity of 97.7% and two-field 45° and 50° colour imaging a sensitivity of 88.9-94%. The specificity of the digital 45°-50° imaging modalities was 98.9-100% versus the reference standard and ungradeable images that were 1.2-1.6%. By using the handheld digital colour video camera only, the optic disc and central fundus located inside 20° from the fovea could be recorded with a sensitivity of 6.9% for detection of at least mild NPDR when compared with the reference standard. Comparative use of digital colour, red-free, and red light imaging showed 85.7% sensitivity, 99% specificity, and 98.2 % exact agreement versus the reference standard in differentiation of small choroidal melanoma from pseudomelanoma. The new subtraction method showed growth in four of 94 melanocytic tumours (4.3%) during a mean ±SD follow-up of 23 ± 11 months. The new digital IRT imaging of the iris showed the sphincter muscle and radial contraction folds of Schwalbe in the pupillary zone and radial structural folds of Schwalbe and circular contraction furrows in the ciliary zone of the iris. The 52-year-old patient with a chronic phase of VKH disease showed extensive atrophy and occasional pigment clumps in the iris stroma, detachment of the ciliary body with severe ocular hypotony, and shallow retinal detachment of the posterior pole in both eyes. Infrared transillumination imaging and fluorescein angiographic findings of the iris showed that IR translucence (p=0.53), complete masking of fluorescence (p=0.69), presence of disorganized vessels (p=0.32), and fluorescein leakage (p=1.0) at the site of the lesion did not differentiate an iris nevus from a melanoma. Conclusions: Digital 50° red-free and two-field 50° or 45° colour imaging were suitable for DR screening, whereas the handheld digital video camera did not fulfill the needs of DR screening. Comparative use of digital colour, red-free and red light imaging was a suitable method in the differentiation of small choroidal melanoma from different pseudomelanomas. The subtraction method may reveal early growth of the melanocytic choroidal tumours. Digital IRT imaging may be used to study changes of the stroma and posterior surface of the iris in various diseases of the uvea. It contributed to the revealment of iris atrophy and serous detachment of the ciliary body with ocular hypotony together with the shallow retinal detachment of the posterior pole as new findings of the chronic phase of VKH disease. Infrared translucence and angiographic findings are useful in differential diagnosis of melanocytic iris tumours, but they cannot be used to determine if the lesion is benign or malignant.

Long-term results of obstetric brachial plexus surgery

Background: Brachial plexus birth palsy (BPBP) most often occurs as a result of foetal-maternal disproportion. The C5 and C6 nerve roots of the brachial plexus are most frequently affected. In contrast, roots from the C7 to Th1 that result in total injury together with C5 and C6 injury, are affected in fewer than half of the patients. BPBP was first described by Smellie in 1764. Erb published his classical description of the injury in 1874 and his name became linked with the paralysis that is associated with upper root injury. Since then, early results of brachial plexus surgery have been reasonably well documented. However, from a clinical point of view not all primary results are maintained and there is also a need for later follow-up results. In addition most of the studies that are published emanate from highly specialized clinics and no nation wide epidemiological reports are available. One of the plexus injuries is the avulsion type, in which the nerve root or roots are ruptured at the neural cord. It has been speculated whether this might cause injury to the whole neural system or whether shoulder asymmetry and upper limb inequality results in postural deformities of the spine. Alternatively, avulsion could manifest as other signs and symptoms of the whole musculoskeletal system. In addition, there is no available information covering activities of daily living after obstetric brachial plexus surgery. Patients and methods: This was a population-based cross-sectional study on all patients who had undergone brachial plexus surgery with at least 5 years of follow-up. An incidence of 3.05/1000 for BPBP was obtained from the registers for this study period. A total of 1706 BPBP patients needing hospital treatment out of 1 717 057 newborns were registered in Finland between 1971 and 1997 inclusive. Of these BPBP patients, 124 (7.3%) underwent brachial plexus surgery at a mean age of 2.8 months (range: 0.4―13.2 months). Surgery was most often performed by direct neuroraphy after neuroma resection (53%). Depending on the phase of the study, 105 to 112 patients (85-90%) participated in a clinical and radiological follow-up assessment. The mean follow up time exceeded 13 years (range: 5.0―31.5 years). Functional status of the upper extremity was evaluated using Mallet, Gilbert and Raimondi scales. Isometric strength of the upper limb, sensation of the hand and stereognosis were evaluated for both the affected and unaffected sides then the differences and their ratios were calculated and recorded. In addition to the upper extremity, assessment of the spine and lower extremities were performed. Activities of daily living (ADL), participation in normal physical activities, and the use of physiotherapy and occupational therapy were recorded in a questionnaire. Results: The unaffected limb functioned as the dominant hand in all, except four patients. The mean length of the affected upper limb was 6 cm (range: 1-13.5 cm) shorter in 106 (95%) patients. Shoulder function was recorded as a mean Mallet score of 3 (range: 2―4) which was moderate. Both elbow function and hand function were good. The mean Gilbert elbow scale value was 3 (range: -1―5) and the mean Raimondi hand scale was 4 (range:1―5). One-third of the patients experienced pain in the affected limb including all those patients (n=9) who had clavicular non-union resulting from surgery. A total of 61 patients (57%) had an active shoulder external rotation of less than 0° and an active elbow extension deficiency was noted in 82 patients (77%) giving a mean of 26° (range: 5°―80°). In all, expect two patients, shoulder external rotation strength at a mean ratio 35% (range: 0―83%) and in all patients elbow flexion strength at a mean ratio of 41% (range: 0―79%) were impaired compared to the unaffected side. According to radiographs, incongruence of the glenohumeral joint was noted in 15 (16%) patients, whereas incongruence of the radiohumeral joint was found in 20 (21%) patients. Fine sensation was normal for 34/49 (69%) patients with C5-6 injury, for 15/31 (48%) with C5-7 and for only 8/25 (32%) of patients with total injury. Loss of protective sensation or absent sensation was noted in some palmar areas of the hand for 12/105 patients (11%). Normal stereognosis was recorded for 88/105 patients (84%). No significant inequalities in leg length were found and the incidence of structural scoliosis (1.7%) did not differ from that of the reference population. Nearly half of the patients (43%) had asynchronous motion of the upper limbs during gait, which was associated with impaired upper limb function. Data obtained from the completed questionnaires indicated that two thirds (63%) of the patients were satisfied with the functional outcome of the affected hand although one third of all patients needed help with ADL. Only a few patients were unable to participate in physical activities such as: bicycling, cross-country skiing or swimming. However, 71% of the patients reported problems related to the affected upper limb, such as muscle weakness and/or joint stiffness during the aforementioned activities. Incongruity of the radiohumeral joints, extent of the injury, avulsion type injury, age less than three months of age at the time of plexus surgery and inexperience of the surgeon was related to poor results as determined by multivariate analyses. Conclusions: Most of the patients had persistent sequelae, especially of shoulder function. Almost all measurements for the total injury group were poorer compared with those of the C5-6 type injury group. Most of the patients had asymmetry of the shoulder region and a shorter affected upper limb, which is a probable reason for having an abnormal gait. However, BPBP did not have an effect on normal growth of the lower extremities or the spine. Although, participation in physical activities was similar to that of the normal population, two-thirds of the patients reported problems. One-third of the patients needed help with ADL. During the period covered by this study, 7.3% BPBP of patients that needed hospital treatment had a brachial plexus operation, which amounts to fewer than 10 operations per year in Finland. It seems that better results of obstetric plexus surgery and more careful follow-up including opportunities for late reconstructive procedures will be expected, if the treatment is solely concentrated on by a few specialised teams.

Bayesian estimation of small effects in exercise and sports science

The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a ‘magnitude-based inference’ approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.

Avian diversification patterns across the K-Pg boundary: Influence of calibrations, datasets, and model misspecification

Birds represent the most diverse extant tetrapod clade, with ca. 10,000 extant species, and the timing of the crown avian radiation remains hotly debated. The fossil record supports a primarily Cenozoic radiation of crown birds, whereas molecular divergence dating analyses generally imply that this radiation was well underway during the Cretaceous. Furthermore, substantial differences have been noted between published divergence estimates. These have been variously attributed to clock model, calibration regime, and gene type. One underappreciated phenomenon is that disparity between fossil ages and molecular dates tends to be proportionally greater for shallower nodes in the avian Tree of Life. Here, we explore potential drivers of disparity in avian divergence dates through a set of analyses applying various calibration strategies and coding methods to a mitochondrial genome dataset and an 18-gene nuclear dataset, both sampled across 72 taxa. Our analyses support the occurrence of two deep divergences (i.e., the Palaeognathae/Neognathae split and the Galloanserae/Neoaves split) well within the Cretaceous, followed by a rapid radiation of Neoaves near the K-Pg boundary. However, 95% highest posterior density intervals for most basal divergences in Neoaves cross the boundary, and we emphasize that, barring unreasonably strict prior distributions, distinguishing between a rapid Early Paleocene radiation and a Late Cretaceous radiation may be beyond the resolving power of currently favored divergence dating methods. In contrast to recent observations for placental mammals, constraining all divergences within Neoaves to occur in the Cenozoic does not result in unreasonably high inferred substitution rates. Comparisons of nuclear DNA (nDNA) versus mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) datasets and NT- versus RY-coded mitochondrial data reveal patterns of disparity that are consistent with substitution model misspecifications that result in tree compression/tree extension artifacts, which may explain some discordance between previous divergence estimates based on different sequence types. Comparisons of fully calibrated and nominally calibrated trees support a correlation between body mass and apparent dating error. Overall, our results are consistent with (but do not require) a Paleogene radiation for most major clades of crown birds.

Task-dependent activations of human auditory cortex during pitch discrimination and pitch memory tasks

"The functional organization of auditory cortex (AC) is still poorly understood. Previous studies suggest segregation of auditory processing streams for spatial and nonspatial information located in the posterior and anterior AC, respectively (Rauschecker and Tian, 2000; Arnott et al., 2004; Lomber and Malhotra, 2008). Furthermore, previous studies have shown that active listening tasks strongly modulate AC activations (Petkov et al., 2004; Fritz et al., 2005; Polley et al., 2006). However, the task dependence of AC activations has not been systematically investigated. In the present study, we applied high-resolution functional magnetic resonance imaging of the AC and adjacent areas to compare activations during pitch discrimination and n-back pitch memory tasks that were varied parametrically in difficulty. We found that anterior AC activations were increased during discrimination but not during memory tasks, while activations in the inferior parietal lobule posterior to the AC were enhanced during memory tasks but not during discrimination. We also found that wide areas of the anterior AC and anterior insula were strongly deactivated during the pitch memory tasks. While these results are consistent with the proposition that the anterior and posterior AC belong to functionally separate auditory processing streams, our results show that this division is present also between tasks using spatially invariant sounds. Together, our results indicate that activations of human AC are strongly dependent on the characteristics of the behavioral task."

Breathing, swallowing and voice in laryngeal disorsers

The aim of this work was to examine how breathing, swallowing and voicing are affected in different laryngeal disorders. For this purpose, we examined four different patient groups: patients who had undergone total laryngectomy, anterior cervical decompression (ACD), or injection laryngoplasty with autologous fascia (ILAF), and patients with dyspnea during exercise. We studied the problems and benefits related to the automatic speech valve used for the rehabilitation of speech in laryngectomized patients. The device was given to 14 total laryngectomized patients who used the traditional valve especially well. The usefulness of voice and intelligibility of speech were assessed by speech pathologists. The results demonstrated better performance with the traditional valve in both dimensions. Most of the patients considered the automatic valve a helpful additional device but because of heavier breathing and the greater work needed for speech production, it was not suitable as a sole device in speech rehabilitation. Dysphonia and dysphagia are known complications of ACD. These symptoms are caused due to the stretching of tissue needed during the surgery, but the extent and the recovery from them was not well known before our study. We studied two patient groups, an early group with 50 patients who were examined immediately before and after the surgery and a late group with 64 patients who were examined 3 9 months postoperatively. Altogether, 60% reported dysphonia and 69% dysphagia immediately after the operation. Even though dysphagia and dysphonia often appeared after surgery, permanent problems seldom occurred. Six (12 %) cases of transient and two (3 %) permanent vocal cord paresis were detected. In our third study, the long-term results of ILAF in 43 patients with unilateral vocal cord paralysis were examined. The mean follow-up was 5.8 years (range 3 10). Perceptual evaluation demonstrated improved results for voice quality, and videostroboscopy revealed complete or partial glottal closure in 83% of the patients. Fascia showed to be a stable injection material with good vocal results. In our final study we developed a new diagnostic method for exertional laryngeal dyspnea by combining a cardiovascular exercise test with simultaneous fiberoptic observation of the larynx. With this method, it is possible to visualize paradoxal closure of the vocal cords during inspiration, which is a diagnostic criterion for vocal cord dysfunction (VCD). We examined 30 patients referred to our hospital because of suspicion of exercise-induced vocal cord dysfunction (EIVCD). Twenty seven out of thirty patients were able to perform the test. Dyspnea was induced in 15 patients, and of them five had EIVCD and four high suspicion of EIVCD. With our test it is possible to set an accurate diagnosis for exertional laryngeal dyspnea. Moreover, the often seen unnecessary use of asthma drugs among these patients can be avoided.

Changes in the Levels of Free Amino Acids in Various Regions of Cuscuta during Growth

The angiospermous plant parasite Cuscuta derives reduced carbon and nitrogen compounds primarily from its host. Free amino acids along Cuscuta vines in three zones, viz., 0 to 5 cm, 5 to 15 cm, and 15 to 30 cm, which in a broad sense represent the region of cell division, cell elongation and differentiation and vascular tissue differentiation respectively, were quantitatively estimated. The free amino acid content was the highest in the 0 to 5 cm region and progressively decreased along the posterior regions of the vine. The haustorial region showed the lowest content of free amino acids. In general, the free amino acid content in samples collected at 7 p.m. was found to be higher than that in the samples collected at 7 a.m. Three basic amino acids, histidine, the uncommon amino acid γ-hydroxyarginine, and arginine constituted more than 50% of the total free amino acids in all the zones studied except the haustorial region. Aspartic acid and glutamic acid constituted the major portion in the acidic and neutral fraction of amino acids. Glutamine, asparagine, threonine, and serine were eluted together and occurred in substantial amounts. γ-Hydroxyarginine constituted the largest fraction in the cut end exudate of Cuscuta and presumably appeared to be the major form of transport amino acid. γ-Hydroxyarginine was also a major constituent of the basic amino acids in Cuscuta vines parasitizing host plants from widely separated families, suggesting that this amino acid is a biosynthetic product of the parasite rather than that of the hosts. Also, U-14C arginine was converted to γ-hydroxyarginine by cut Cuscuta vines, suggesting that γ-hydroxyarginine is synthesized de novo from arginine by Cuscuta.

Magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasonography in brachial plexus birth injury

Brachial plexus birth injury (BPBI) is caused by stretching, tearing or avulsion of the C5-C8 or Th1 nerve roots during delivery. Foetal-maternal disproportion is the main reason for BPBI. The goal of this study was to find out the incidence of posterior subluxation of the humeral head during first year of life in BPBI and optimal timing of the ultrasonographic screening of the glenohumeral joint. The glenohumeral congruity and posterior subluxation of the humeral head associated to muscle atrophy were assessed and surgical treatment of the shoulder girdle as well as muscle changes in elbow flexion contracture were evaluated. The prospective, population based part of the study included all neonates born in Helsinki area during years 2003-2006. Patients with BPBI sent to the Hospital for Children and Adolescents because of decreased external rotation, internal rotation contracture or deformation of the glenohumeral joint as well as patients with elbow flexion contracture were also included in this prospective study. The incidence of BPBI was calculated to be 3.1/1000 newborns in Helsinki area. About 80% of the patients with BPBI recover totally during the follow-up within the first year of life. Permanent plexus injury at the age of one year was noted in 20% of the patients (0.64/1000 newborns). Muscle imbalance resulted in sonographically detected posterior subluxation in one third of the patients with permanent BPBI. If muscle imbalance and posterior subluxation are left untreated bony deformities will develop. All patients with internal rotation contracture of the glenohumeral joint presented muscle atrophy of the rotator cuff muscles. Especially subscapular and infraspinous muscles were affected. A correlation was found particularly between greatest thickness of subscapular muscle and subluxation of the humeral head, degree of glenoid retroversion, as well as amount of internal rotation contracture. Supinator muscle atrophy was evident among all the studied patients with elbow flexion contracture. Brachial muscle pathology seemed to be an important factor for elbow flexion contracture in BPBI. Residual dysfunction of the upper extremity may require operative treatment such as tendon lengthening, tendon transfers, relocation of the humeral head or osteotomy of the humerus. Relocation of the humeral head improved the glenohumeral congruency among patients under 5 years of age. Functional improvement without remodeling of the glenohumeral joint was achieved by other reconstructive procedures. In conclusion: Shoulder screening by US should be done to all patients with permanent BPBI at the age of 3 and 6 months. Especially atrophy of the subscapular muscle correlates with glenohumeral deformity and posterior subluxation of the humeral head, which has not been reported in previous studies. Permanent muscle changes are the main reason for diminished range of motion of the elbow and forearm. Relocation of the humeral head, when needed, should be performed under the age of 5 years.

Alternative News Sources as 'Collaboratory' Journalism. A case study of Helsingin Sanomat and its relation with the Youth Voice Editorial Board

The new paradigm of connectedness and empowerment brought by the interactivity feature of the Web 2.0 has been challenging the traditional centralized performance of mainstream media. The corporation has been able to survive the strong winds by transforming itself into a global multimedia business network embedded in the network society. By establishing networks, e.g. networks of production and distribution, the global multimedia business network has been able to sight potential solutions by opening the doors to innovation in a decentralized and flexible manner. Under this emerging context of re-organization, traditional practices like sourcing need to be re- explained and that is precisely what this thesis attempts to tackle. Based on ICT and on the network society, the study seeks to explain within the Finnish context the particular case of Helsingin Sanomat (HS) and its relations with the youth news agency, Youth Voice Editorial Board (NÄT). In that sense, the study can be regarded as an explanatory embedded single case study, where HS is the principal unit of analysis and NÄT its embedded unit of analysis. The thesis was able to reach explanations through interrelated steps. First, it determined the role of ICT in HS’s sourcing practices. Then it mapped an overview of the HS’s sourcing relations and provided a context in which NÄT was located. And finally, it established conceptualized institutional relational data between HS and NÄT for their posterior measurement through social network analysis. The data set was collected via qualitative interviews addressed to online and offline editors of HS as well as interviews addressed to NÄT’s personnel. The study concluded that ICT’s interactivity and User Generated Content (UGC) are not sourcing tools as such but mechanism used by HS for getting ideas that could turn into potential news stories. However, when it comes to visual communication, some exemptions were found. The lack of official sources amidst the immediacy leads HS to rely on ICT’s interaction and UGC. More than meets the eye, ICT’s input into the sourcing practice may be more noticeable if the interaction and UGC is well organized and coordinated into proper and innovative networks of alternative content collaboration. Currently, HS performs this sourcing practice via two projects that differ, precisely, by the mode they are coordinated. The first project found, Omakaupunki, is coordinated internally by Sanoma Group’s owned media houses HS, Vartti and Metro. The second project found is coordinated externally. The external alternative sourcing network, as it was labeled, consists of three actors, namely HS, NÄT (professionals in charge) and the youth. This network is a balanced and complete triad in which the actors connect themselves in relations of feedback, recognition, creativity and filtering. However, as innovation is approached very reluctantly, this content collaboration is a laboratory of experiments; a ‘COLLABORATORY’.

Association between molecular variation in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) locus and migration propensity in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

Habitat fragmentation produces patches of suitable habitat surrounded by unfavourable matrix habitat. A species may persist in such a fragmented landscape in an equilibrium between the extinctions and recolonizations of local populations, thus forming a metapopulation. Migration between local populations is necessary for the long-term persistence of a metapopulation. The Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) forms a metapopulation in the Åland islands in Finland. There is migration between the populations, the extent of which is affected by several environmental factors and variation in the phenotype of individual butterflies. Different allelic forms of the glycolytic enzyme phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) has been identified as a possible genetic factor influencing flight performance and migration rate in this species. The frequency of a certain Pgi allele, Pgi-f, follows the same pattern in relation to population age and connectivity as migration propensity. Furthermore, variation in flight metabolic performance, which is likely to affect migration propensity, has been linked to genetic variation in Pgi or a closely linked locus. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between Pgi genotype and the migration propensity in the Glanville fritillary both at the individual and population levels using a statistical modelling approach. A mark-release-recapture (MRR) study was conducted in a habitat patch network of M. cinxia in Åland to collect data on the movements of individual butterflies. Larval samples from the study area were also collected for population level examinations. Each butterfly and larva was genotyped at the Pgi locus. The MRR data was parameterised with two mathematical models of migration: the Virtual Migration Model (VM) and the spatially explicit diffusion model. VM model predicted and observed numbers of emigrants from populations with high and low frequencies of Pgi-f were compared. Posterior predictive data sets were simulated based on the parameters of the diffusion model. Lack-of-fit of observed values to the model predicted values of several descriptors of movements were detected, and the effect of Pgi genotype on the deviations was assessed by randomizations including the genotype information. This study revealed a possible difference in the effect of Pgi genotype on migration propensity between the two sexes in the Glanville fritillary. The females with and males without the Pgi-f allele moved more between habitat patches, which is probably related to differences in the function of flight in the two sexes. Females may use their high flight capacity to migrate between habitat patches to find suitable oviposition sites, whereas males may use it to acquire mates by keeping a territory and fighting off other intruding males, possibly causing them to emigrate. The results were consistent across different movement descriptors and at the individual and population levels. The effect of Pgi is likely to be dependent on the structure of the landscape and the prevailing environmental conditions.

Understorey vegetation as an indicator of forest site potential in Southern Finland.

The relationship between site characteristics and understorey vegetation composition was analysed with quantitative methods, especially from the viewpoint of site quality estimation. Theoretical models were applied to an empirical data set collected from the upland forests of southern Finland comprising 104 sites dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), and 165 sites dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karsten). Site index H100 was used as an independent measure of site quality. A new model for the estimation of site quality at sites with a known understorey vegetation composition was introduced. It is based on the application of Bayes' theorem to the density function of site quality within the study area combined with the species-specific presence-absence response curves. The resulting posterior probability density function may be used for calculating an estimate for the site variable. Using this method, a jackknife estimate of site index H100 was calculated separately for pine- and spruce-dominated sites. The results indicated that the cross-validation root mean squared error (RMSEcv) of the estimates improved from 2.98 m down to 2.34 m relative to the "null" model (standard deviation of the sample distribution) in pine-dominated forests. In spruce-dominated forests RMSEcv decreased from 3.94 m down to 3.16 m. In order to assess these results, four other estimation methods based on understorey vegetation composition were applied to the same data set. The results showed that none of the methods was clearly superior to the others. In pine-dominated forests, RMSEcv varied between 2.34 and 2.47 m, and the corresponding range for spruce-dominated forests was from 3.13 to 3.57 m.

Bayesian Analysis of a Superimposed Renewal Process

Stochastic behavior of an aero-engine failure/repair process has been analyzed from a Bayesian perspective. Number of failures/repairs in the component-sockets of this multi-component system are assumed to follow independent renewal processes with Weibull inter-arrival times. Based on the field failure/repair data of a large number of such engines and independent Gamma priors on the scale parameters and log-concave priors on the shape parameters, an exact method of sampling from the resulting posterior distributions of the parameters has been proposed. These generated parameter values are next utilised in obtaining the posteriors of the expected number of system repairs, system failure rate, and the conditional intensity function, which are computed using a recursive formula.

Development stage-specific expression of fibroin in the silk worm Bombyx mori is regulated translationally

The contents of fibroin H RNA as a function of development have been quantitated in the posterior silk glands of Bombyx mori larvae on different days of 4th and 5th instars. The fibroin RNA levels increased during the feeding stages of larvae and the RNA got completely degraded during the interim moult. The patterns of accumulation of fibroin RNA were similar in both the instars. Although there was considerable increase in the fibroin RNA content during the 5th larval instar, the relative abundance of fibroin RNA in the total RNA was fairly constant during the 4th and 5th instars. The increased content of fibroin RNA in 5th instar was the consequence of an overall increase in transcription accompanying the development progress, rather than specific increase only in fibroin transcription. The contents of fibroin protein in the 4th and 5th instars of development have also been quantitated making use of a sensitive radioimmune assay with a purified, antifibroin antibody. There were substantial differences between 4th and 5th instars in the absolute fibroin contents as well as the relative proportion of fibroin in the total proteins. These results implied that although the fibroin gene was transcribed at the same efficiency during the 4th and 5th instars, the translational efficiency was much lower during the 4th instar. The extent of polyadenylation of fibroin RNA was similar in both instars. However, there was a two-fold increase in the polysome association of fibroin RNA in the 5th instar. Over and above this, there was substantial increase during the 5th instar in the contents of those tRNAs. (e.g. Gly, Ala and Ser) which are abundantly represented in fibroin and therefore directly related to the expression of fibroin. The increased polysome association of fibroin mRNA and the adequate supply of cognate tRNAs in the 5th instar, together contributes to the translational regulation of fibroin in a developmental stage-specific manner. Based on these observations, we propose that translational regulation plays a major role in the development stage-specific synthesis of fibroin in Bombyx mori.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DNA Polymerase4 from the Silk Glands of Bombyx mori

The silk gland of Bombyx mori is a terminally differentiated tissue in which DNA replication continues without cell or nuclear division during larval development. DNA polymerase-delta activity increases in the posterior and middle silk glands during the development period, reaching maximal levels in the middle of the fifth instar larvae. The enzyme has been purified to homogeneity by a series of column chromatographic and affinity purification steps. It is a multimer comprising of three heterogeneous subunits, M(r) 170,000, 70,000, and 42,000. An auxiliary protein from B. mori silk glands, analogous to the proliferating cell nuclear antigen, enhances the processivity of the enzyme and stimulates catalytic activity by 3-fold. This auxiliary protein has also been purified to homogeneity. It is a dimer comprised of a single type M(r) 40,000 subunit. Polymerase-delta possesses an intrinsic 3' --> 5' exonuclease activity which participates in proofreading by mismatch match repair during DNA synthesis and is devoid of any primase activity. DNA polymerase-delta activity could be further distinguished from polymerase-alpha from the same tissue based on its sensitivity to various inhibitors and polyclonal antibodies to the individual enzymes. Like DNA polymerase-alpha, polymerase-delta is also tightly associated with the nuclear matrix. The polymerase alpha-primase complex could be readily separated from polymerase-delta (exonuclease) in the purification protocol adopted. DNA polymerase-delta from B. mori silk glands resembles the mammalian delta-polymerases. Considering that both DNA polymerase-delta and -alpha are present in nearly equal amounts in this highly replicative tissue and their close association with the nuclear matrix, the involvement of both the enzymes in the chromosomal endoreplication process in B. mori is strongly implicated.