960 resultados para Population viability analysis


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Leptospirosis is an emerging infectious disease that has been identified as both a human and animal health problem worldwide. Regular outbreaks associated with specific risk factors have been reported in Argentina. However, there are no available data concerning the genetic population level for this pathogen. Therefore, the aim of this work was to describe the genetic diversity of Leptospira interrogans through the application of two molecular typing strategies: variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) and multilocus sequence typing (MLST). For this purpose, seven reference strains and 18 non-epidemiologically related isolates from diverse hosts and Argentinean regions were analysed. Among them, nine genotypes and seven sequence types (STs), including three unreported STs, were described using VNTR and MLST, respectively. eBURST analysis demonstrated that ST37 was the most frequent and founder genotype of a clonal complex (CCs) containing STN1 and STN3, suggesting the importance of studying the serovars belonging to this CC in Argentina. The data from maximum parsimony analysis, which combined both techniques, achieved intra-serovar discrimination, surmounted microscopic agglutination test discrepancies and increased the discriminatory power of each technique applied separately. This study is the first to combine both strategies for L. interrogans typing to generate a more comprehensive molecular genotyping of isolates from Argentina in a global context.

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BACKGROUND A prospective study was performed to compare the prevalence of morphometric vertebral fractures (MVF) between patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and healthy subjects and to identify predictive factors of fracture. METHODS A total of 107 patients with IBD (53 with Crohn's disease and 54 with ulcerative colitis) and 51 healthy subjects participated in the study. Information about anthropometric parameters, toxins, previous fractures, and parameters related to this disease were evaluated. The index of vertebral deformity, bone mass density (BMD), and biochemical parameters were calculated. RESULTS A total of 72 fractures were detected in 38.32% of patients with IBD, and 10 fractures were detected in 13.73% of healthy subjects; the risk of fracture in patients with IBD was higher than that in control subjects (OR, 4.03; 95% CI, 1.652-9.847; p < 0.002). We found no correlation between fracture and BMD in patients with IBD (lumbar spine, r = -0.103, p = 0.17 and femoral neck, r = -0.138, p = 0.07). Corticosteroid treatment was not associated with prevalent vertebral fractures nor with taking corticosteroids (r = 0.135, p = 0.14) or the duration for which they were taken (r = 0.08, p = 0.38), whereas this relationship was present in the controls (r = -0.365, p = 0.01). In the multivariate analysis, none of the measured parameters were significantly predictive of fracture, only to manifested IBD. Hypovitaminosis D was observed in 55.14% of patients with IBD. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of morphometric vertebral fractures is higher in patients with IBD than in the healthy population, without association with BMD or corticoid treatment. Simply having IBD was proven to be a predictive factor of fracture. We observed a high incidence of hypovitaminosis D in patients with IBD.

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OBJECTIVE To investigate sensitization to third-stage Anisakis simplex larvae in a randomly selected population in northern Morocco. METHODS We studied sera obtained from clinical analysis laboratories in Tangier and Tetuouan and from fishermen at Tangier port. The age of the study population ranged from 6 to 83 years. ImmunoCAP and immunoblotting techniques were used to determine total and specific immunoglobulin (Ig) E values and the chi2 and Fisher exact tests were applied to analyze relationships between study variables. RESULTS A seroprevalence of 5.1% was found, with a higher percentage of positive sera in the 31-to-43-year age group. Sensitization was not significantly associated with the origin, sex, occupation, or age of the individuals studied. In sera positive by InmunoCAP, immunoblotting studies detected numerous bands of between 7 kDa and >209 kDa, with a predominance of bands in the approximately 20-kDa to 24-kDa range. CONCLUSIONS Although no cases of human anisakiasis have been reported in Morocco to date, part of a randomly selected population in Northern Morocco shows sensitization to A simplex proteins.

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Despite the effectiveness of current hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccines, it is estimated that 350 million individuals suffer from chronic HBV infection and more than 50% of these affected individuals live on the Asian continent. Panama is a country with a great diversity of foreign groups; the Chinese community is a large example of this phenomenon. There is an urgent need to perform studies that evaluate the prevalence and the genetic diversity of HBV in this community. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of HBV and its genotypes and mutant variants in the Chinese population residing in Panama. In total, 320 subjects were enrolled in the study. Forty-two subjects (13.1%) were positive for HBsAg and HBV-DNA from 18 subjects revealed the presence of genotypes B2 and C1. Secondary mutations associated with drug resistance at positions rtV207L and rtN239T of the reverse transcriptase gene were identified. Additionally, the mutation pair A1762T/G1764A was found in three samples and the mutation G1896A was detected in an HBeAg-negative subject. In conclusion, to our knowledge, this is the first study to report high HBV prevalence rates in resident ethnic Chinese in Central America and the presence of genotypes B2 and C1 in this region.

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To evaluate whether environmental heterogeneity contributes to the genetic heterogeneity in Anopheles triannulatus, larval habitat characteristics across the Brazilian states of Roraima and Pará and genetic sequences were examined. A comparison with Anopheles goeldii was utilised to determine whether high genetic diversity was unique to An. triannulatus. Student t test and analysis of variance found no differences in habitat characteristics between the species. Analysis of population structure of An. triannulatus and An. goeldii revealed distinct demographic histories in a largely overlapping geographic range. Cytochrome oxidase I sequence parsimony networks found geographic clustering for both species; however nuclear marker networks depicted An. triannulatus with a more complex history of fragmentation, secondary contact and recent divergence. Evidence of Pleistocene expansions suggests both species are more likely to be genetically structured by geographic and ecological barriers than demography. We hypothesise that niche partitioning is a driving force for diversity, particularly in An. triannulatus.

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To increase our knowledge of the natural susceptibility of Triatoma infestans to an organophosphate insecticide, we performed toxicological and biochemical studies on three sylvatic populations from Bolivia and two populations from domestic dwellings from Bolivia and Argentina. Fifty-per-cent lethal doses (LD50) were determined based on the topical application of fenitrothion on first instar nymphs and mortality was assessed at 24 h. Both type of populations exhibited LD50ratios significantly higher than 1 with a range of the values (1.42-2.47); the maximum value were found in a sylvatic (-S) population, Veinte de Octubre-S. Samples were biochemically analysed using a glutathione S-transferase activity assay. The highest significant activity was obtained for Veinte de Octubre-S and the lowest activity was obtained for the reference population (102.69 and 54.23 pmol per minute per mg of protein respectively). Two out of the three sylvatic populations (Veinte de Octubre-S and Kirus Mayu-S) exhibited significantly higher glutathione S-transferase activity than that of the reference population. Based on this analysis of the natural susceptibility of this organism to organophosphate insecticides, continental and focal surveys of organophosphate susceptibility should be conducted to evaluate the evolution and distribution of this phenomenon.

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Introduction: The ICT progress and development are making the set up of virtual libraries easier, with great advantages for users in terms of immediate access to vast amounts of library information, online resources, and services. Most of the Autonomous Spanish Regions are presently working on the establishment of virtual libraries with the aim of optimising economic resources destined to subscribe bibliographic information sources and offering qualified documentary services to Public Health System Professionals. The Ministry of Health and Social Policy, an institution unifying health matters, issued this Project to study the National Health System Virtual Library creation viability, in order to guarantee relevant scientific information access equity. Objectives: - To study the National Health System (NHS) Virtual Library set up viability. - To elaborate the Spanish territory health information resource map. - To identify the appropriate technological model. - To identify the documentary services to be offered. - To identify the more optimum functional, structural model. - To identify the economic model. Method: - To create a chart organization for the project´s management. - To organize Work groups. - To elaborate a standardised survey model for the libraries of the autonomous regions. Results: - Identification of the different Autonomous Region libraries of health models. - Recommendations for the NHS Virtual Library: - Functional, structural model - Technological model - Financial-economic model Conclusions: The fact that the Virtual Library would be an invaluable space for access to quality scientific information, as well as that the minimum services could be offered to every NHS user regardless of geographical situation, is confirmed. Accordingly, we thought about three different models to develop the Virtual Library, depending on this initial analysis, which will allow us to establish the most suitable model for the Spanish National Health System, considering its economic, functional and technological recommendations. It would be necessary to do a study for the NHS Virtual Library Set Up following the recommendations arising from this Project.

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Purpose: Combined antiretroviral therapy has dramatically improved HIV-infected individuals survival. Long-term strategies are currently needed to achieve the goal of durable virologic suppression. However, long-term available data for specific antiretrovirals (ARV) are limited. In clinical trials, boosted atazanavir (ATV/r) regimens has shown good efficacy and tolerability in ARV-naïve patients for up to 4 years. The REMAIN study aimed to evaluate the long-term outcomes of ATV/r regimens in ARV-naïve patients in a real life setting. Methods: Non-comparative, observational study conducted in Germany, Portugal and Spain. Historical and longitudinal follow-up data was extracted six monthly from the medical record of HIV-infected, treatment-naïve patients, who initiated an ATV/r-regimen between 2008 and 2010. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients remaining on ATV treatment over time. Secondary endpoints included virologic response (HIV-1 RNA <50 c/mL and <500 c/mL), reasons for discontinuation and long-term safety. The duration of treatment and time to virologic failure (VF) were analyzed using the Kaplan- Meier method. Data from an interim analysis including patients with at least one year of follow-up are reported here. Results: A total of 411 patients were included in this interim analysis [median (Q1, Q3) follow-up: 23.42 (16.25, 32.24) months≥: 77% male; median age 40 years [min, max: 19, 78≥; 16% IDUs; 18% CDC C; 18% hepatitis C. TDF/FTC was the most common backbone (85%). At baseline, median (Q1, Q3) HIV-RNA and CD4 cell count were 4.91 (4.34, 5.34) log10 c/mL and 256 (139, 353) cells/mm3, respectively. The probability of remaining on treatment was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.87) and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.76) for the first and second year, respectively. After 2 years of follow-up, 84% (95% CI: 0.79, 0.88) of patients were virologically suppressed (<50 c/mL). No major protease inhibitors mutations were observed at VF. Overall, 125 patients (30%) discontinued ATV therapy [median (Q1, Q3) time to discontinuation: 11.14 (6.24, 19.35) months]. Adverse events (AEs) were the main reason for discontinuation (n =47, 11%). Hyperbilirubinaemia was the most common AE leading to discontinuation (14 patients). No unexpected AEs were reported. Conclusions: In a real life clinical setting, ATV/r regimens showed durable virologic efficacy with good tolerability in an ARV-naïve population. Data from longer follow-up will provide additional valuable information.

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Background: The objective was to investigate the association between BMI and single nucleotide polymorphisms previously identified of obesity-related genes in two Spanish populations. Forty SNPs in 23 obesity-related genes were evaluated in a rural population characterized by a high prevalence of obesity (869 subjects, mean age 46 yr, 62% women, 36% obese) and in an urban population (1425 subjects, mean age 54 yr, 50% women, 19% obese). Genotyping was assessed by using SNPlex and PLINK for the association analysis. Results: Polymorphisms of the FTO were significantly associated with BMI, in the rural population (beta 0.87, p-value <0.001). None of the other SNPs showed significant association after Bonferroni correction in the two populations or in the pooled analysis. A weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) was constructed using the risk alleles of the Tag-SNPs with a positive Beta parameter in both populations. From the first to the fifth quintile of the score, the BMI increased 0.45 kg/m2 in Hortega and 2.0 kg/m2 in Pizarra. Overall, the obesity predictive value was low (less than 1%). Conclusion: The risk associated with polymorphisms is low and the overall effect on BMI or obesity prediction is minimal. A weighted genetic risk score based on genes mainly acting through central nervous system mechanisms was associated with BMI but it yields minimal clinical prediction for the obesity risk in the general population.

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AIM: This study aims to investigate the clinical and demographic factors influencing gentamicin pharmacokinetics in a large cohort of unselected premature and term newborns and to evaluate optimal regimens in this population. METHODS: All gentamicin concentration data, along with clinical and demographic characteristics, were retrieved from medical charts in a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit over 5 years within the frame of a routine therapeutic drug monitoring programme. Data were described using non-linear mixed-effects regression analysis ( nonmem®). RESULTS: A total of 3039 gentamicin concentrations collected in 994 preterm and 455 term newborns were included in the analysis. A two compartment model best characterized gentamicin disposition. The average parameter estimates, for a median body weight of 2170 g, were clearance (CL) 0.089 l h(-1) (CV 28%), central volume of distribution (Vc ) 0.908 l (CV 18%), intercompartmental clearance (Q) 0.157 l h(-1) and peripheral volume of distribution (Vp ) 0.560 l. Body weight, gestational age and post-natal age positively influenced CL. Dopamine co-administration had a significant negative effect on CL, whereas the influence of indomethacin and furosemide was not significant. Both body weight and gestational age significantly influenced Vc . Model-based simulations confirmed that, compared with term neonates, preterm infants need higher doses, superior to 4 mg kg(-1) , at extended intervals to achieve adequate concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: This observational study conducted in a large cohort of newborns confirms the importance of body weight and gestational age for dosage adjustment. The model will serve to set up dosing recommendations and elaborate a Bayesian tool for dosage individualization based on concentration monitoring.

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BACKGROUND Human endogenous retroviruses (HERVs) are repetitive sequences derived from ancestral germ-line infections by exogenous retroviruses and different HERV families have been integrated in the genome. HERV-Fc1 in chromosome X has been previously associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) in Northern European populations. Additionally, HERV-Fc1 RNA levels of expression have been found increased in plasma of MS patients with active disease. Considering the North-South latitude gradient in MS prevalence, we aimed to evaluate the role of HERV-Fc1on MS risk in three independent Spanish cohorts. METHODS A single nucleotide polymorphism near HERV-Fc1, rs391745, was genotyped by Taqman chemistry in a total of 2473 MS patients and 3031 ethnically matched controls, consecutively recruited from: Northern (569 patients and 980 controls), Central (883 patients and 692 controls) and Southern (1021 patients and 1359 controls) Spain. Our results were pooled in a meta-analysis with previously published data. RESULTS Significant associations of the HERV-Fc1 polymorphism with MS were observed in two Spanish cohorts and the combined meta-analysis with previous data yielded a significant association [rs391745 C-allele carriers: pM-H = 0.0005; ORM-H (95% CI) = 1.27 (1.11-1.45)]. Concordantly to previous findings, when the analysis was restricted to relapsing remitting and secondary progressive MS samples, a slight enhancement in the strength of the association was observed [pM-H = 0.0003, ORM-H (95% CI) = 1.32 (1.14-1.53)]. CONCLUSION Association of the HERV-Fc1 polymorphism rs391745 with bout-onset MS susceptibility was confirmed in Southern European cohorts.

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Etravirine (ETV) is recommended in combination with a boosted protease inhibitor plus an optimized background regimen for salvage therapy, but there is limited experience with its use in combination with two nucleos(t)ide reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs). This multicenter study aimed to assess the efficacy of this combination in two scenarios: group A) subjects without virologic failure on or no experience with non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) switched due to adverse events and group B) subjects switched after a virologic failure on an efavirenz- or nevirapine-based regimen. The primary endpoint was efficacy at 52 weeks analysed by intention-to-treat. Virologic failure was defined as the inability to suppress plasma HIV-RNA to <50 copies/mL after 24 weeks on treatment, or a confirmed viral load >200 copies/mL in patients who had previously achieved a viral suppression or had an undetectable viral load at inclusion. Two hundred eighty seven patients were included. Treatment efficacy rates in group A and B were 88.0% (CI95, 83.9-92.1%) and 77.4% (CI95, 65.0-89.7%), respectively; the rates reached 97.2% (CI95, 95.1-99.3%) and 90.5% (CI95, 81.7-99.3), by on-treatment analysis. The once-a-day ETV treatment was as effective as the twice daily dosing regimen. Grade 1-2 adverse events were observed motivating a treatment switch in 4.2% of the subjects. In conclusion, ETV (once- or twice daily) plus two analogs is a suitable, well-tolerated combination both as a switching strategy and after failure with first generation NNRTIs, ensuring full drug activity. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01437241.

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Immunological diagnostic methods for Trypanosoma cruzi depend specifically on the presence of antibodies and parasitological methods lack sensitivity during the chronic and “indeterminate” stages of the disease. This study performed a serological survey of 1,033 subjects from 52 rural communities in 12 of the 18 municipalities in the state of Querétaro, Mexico. We detected anti-T. cruzi antibodies using the following tests: indirect haemagglutination assay (IHA), indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA), ELISA and recombinant ELISA (rELISA). We also performed Western blot (WB) analysis using iron superoxide dismutase (FeSOD), a detoxifying enzyme excreted by the parasite, as the antigen. Positive test results were distributed as follows: ELISA 8%, rELISA 6.2%, IFA and IHA 5.4% in both cases and FeSOD 8%. A comparative study of the five tests was undertaken. Sensitivity levels, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, concordance percentage and kappa index were considered. Living with animals, trips to other communities, gender, age, type of housing and symptomatology at the time of the survey were statistically analysed using SPSS software v.11.5. Detection of the FeSOD enzyme that was secreted by the parasite and used as an antigenic fraction in WBs showed a 100% correlation with traditional ELISA tests.

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BACKGROUND It is not clear to what extent educational programs aimed at promoting diabetes self-management in ethnic minority groups are effective. The aim of this work was to systematically review the effectiveness of educational programs to promote the self-management of racial/ethnic minority groups with type 2 diabetes, and to identify programs' characteristics associated with greater success. METHODS We undertook a systematic literature review. Specific searches were designed and implemented for Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, ISI Web of Knowledge, Scirus, Current Contents and nine additional sources (from inception to October 2012). We included experimental and quasi-experimental studies assessing the impact of educational programs targeted to racial/ethnic minority groups with type 2 diabetes. We only included interventions conducted in countries members of the OECD. Two reviewers independently screened citations. Structured forms were used to extract information on intervention characteristics, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness. When possible, we conducted random-effects meta-analyses using standardized mean differences to obtain aggregate estimates of effect size with 95% confidence intervals. Two reviewers independently extracted all the information and critically appraised the studies. RESULTS We identified thirty-seven studies reporting on thirty-nine educational programs. Most of them were conducted in the US, with African American or Latino participants. Most programs obtained some benefits over standard care in improving diabetes knowledge, self-management behaviors and clinical outcomes. A meta-analysis of 20 randomized controlled trials (3,094 patients) indicated that the programs produced a reduction in glycated hemoglobin of -0.31% (95% CI -0.48% to -0.14%). Diabetes knowledge and self-management measures were too heterogeneous to pool. Meta-regressions showed larger reduction in glycated hemoglobin in individual and face to face delivered interventions, as well as in those involving peer educators, including cognitive reframing techniques, and a lower number of teaching methods. The long-term effects remain unknown and cost-effectiveness was rarely estimated. CONCLUSIONS Diabetes self-management educational programs targeted to racial/ethnic minority groups can produce a positive effect on diabetes knowledge and on self-management behavior, ultimately improving glycemic control. Future programs should take into account the key characteristics identified in this review.

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This paper aims to provide empirical support for the use of the principal-agent framework in the analysis of public sector and public policies. After reviewing the different conditions to be met for a relevant analysis of the relationship between population and government using the principal-agent theory, our paper focuses on the assumption of conflicting goals between the principal and the agent. A principal-agent analysis assumes in effect that inefficiencies may arise because principal and agent pursue different goals. Using data collected during an amalgamation project of two Swiss municipalities, we show the existence of a gap between the goals of the population and those of the government. Consequently, inefficiencies as predicted by the principal-agent model may arise during the implementation of a public policy, i.e. an amalgamation project. In a context of direct democracy where policies are regularly subjected to referendum, the conflict of objectives may even lead to a total failure of the policy at the polls.