Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.

Optimizing Presence–Absence Surveys For Detecting Population Trends

Presence-absence surveys are a commonly used method for monitoring broad-scale changes in wildlife distributions. However, the lack of power of these surveys for detecting population trends is problematic for their application in wildlife management. Options for improving power include increasing the sampling effort or arbitrarily relaxing the type I error rate. We present an alternative, whereby targeted sampling of particular habitats in the landscape using information from a habitat model increases power. The advantage of this approach is that it does not require a trade-off with either cost or the Pr(type I error) to achieve greater power. We use a demographic model of koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population dynamics and simulations of the monitoring process to estimate the power to detect a trend in occupancy for a range of strategies, thereby demonstrating that targeting particular habitat qualities can improve power substantially. If the objective is to detect a decline in occupancy, the optimal strategy is to sample high-quality habitats. Alternatively, if the objective is to detect an increase in occupancy, the optimal strategy is to sample intermediate-quality habitats. The strategies with the highest power remained the same under a range of parameter assumptions, although observation error had a strong influence on the optimal strategy. Our approach specifically applies to monitoring for detecting long-term trends in occupancy or abundance. This is a common and important monitoring objective for wildlife managers, and we provide guidelines for more effectively achieving it.

Investigating the use of sweet sorghum as a model for sugar accumulation in sugarcane

This paper outlines a current investigation of sugar accumulation in sweet sorghum to assist in understanding and simplifying this complex trait in sugarcane. A recombinant inbred line (RIL) sorghum population, between a sweet and a grain sorghum, has been developed and phenotyped for various morphological and agronomic traits related to grain yield, biomass and stem sugar content. A genetic linkage map will be constructed for the sweet sorghum population with the objective of identifying genomic regions associated with sucrose accumulation in sweet sorghum. This will lead to further work, including comparative mapping in sugarcane, to identify the extent to which sweet sorghum can be used as a model for investigating sugar accumulation in sugarcane.

Bayesian population pharmacokinetic analysis of sirolimus

Objective: It is usual that data collected from routine clinical care is sparse and unable to support the more complex pharmacokinetic (PK) models that may have been reported in previous rich data studies. Informative priors may be a pre-requisite for model development. The aim of this study was to estimate the population PK parameters of sirolimus using a fully Bayesian approach with informative priors. Methods: Informative priors including prior mean and precision of the prior mean were elicited from previous published studies using a meta-analytic technique. Precision of between-subject variability was determined by simulations from a Wishart distribution using MATLAB (version 6.5). Concentration-time data of sirolimus retrospectively collected from kidney transplant patients were analysed using WinBUGS (version 1.3). The candidate models were either one- or two-compartment with first order absorption and first order elimination. Model discrimination was based on computation of the posterior odds supporting the model. Results: A total of 315 concentration-time points were obtained from 25 patients. Most data were clustered at trough concentrations with range of 1.6 to 77 hours post-dose. Using informative priors, either a one- or two-compartment model could be used to describe the data. When a one-compartment model was applied, information was gained from the data for the value of apparent clearance (CL/F = 18.5 L/h), and apparent volume of distribution (V/F = 1406 L) but no information was gained about the absorption rate constant (ka). When a two-compartment model was fitted to the data, the data were informative about CL/F, apparent inter-compartmental clearance, and apparent volume of distribution of the peripheral compartment (13.2 L/h, 20.8 L/h, and 579 L, respectively). The posterior distribution of the volume distribution of central compartment and ka were the same as priors. The posterior odds for the two-compartment model was 8.1, indicating the data supported the two-compartment model. Conclusion: The use of informative priors supported the choice of a more complex and informative model that would otherwise have not been supported by the sparse data.

Use of routine data for determination of the population pharmacokinetics and enteral biovailability of phenytoin in neonates and infants with seizures

Objective: To investigate the population pharmacokinetics and the enteral bioavailability of phenytoin in neonates and infants with seizures. Methods: Data (5 mg kg-1 day-1) from 83 patients were obtained retrospectively from the medical records following written ethical approval. A one-compartment model was fitted to the data using NONMEM with FOCE-interaction. Between-subject variability (BSV) and interoccasion variability (IOV) were modelled exponentially together with a log transform-both-sides exponential residual unexplained variance (RUV) model. Covariates in nested models were screened for significance (X2, 1, 0.01). Model validity was determined by bootstrapping with replacement (N=500 samples) from the dataset. Results: The parameters of final pharmacokinetic were: Clearance (L h-1) = 0.826.(current Weight [kg]/70)0.75.(1+0.0692.(Postnatal age [days]-11)); Volume of distribution (L) = 74.2.(current Weight [kg]/70); Enteral bioavailability = 0.76; Absorption rate constant (h-1) = 0.167. BSV for clearance and volume of distribution were 74.2% and 65.6%, respectively. The IOV in clearance was 54.4%. The RUV was 51.1%. Final model parameters deviated from mean bootstrap estimates by

Playing in continuous spaces: Some analysis and extension of population-based incremental learning

As an alternative to traditional evolutionary algorithms (EAs), population-based incremental learning (PBIL) maintains a probabilistic model of the best individual(s). Originally, PBIL was applied in binary search spaces. Recently, some work has been done to extend it to continuous spaces. In this paper, we review two such extensions of PBIL. An improved version of the PBIL based on Gaussian model is proposed that combines two main features: a new updating rule that takes into account all the individuals and their fitness values and a self-adaptive learning rate parameter. Furthermore, a new continuous PBIL employing a histogram probabilistic model is proposed. Some experiments results are presented that highlight the features of the new algorithms.

Genetics and competing strategies in a threshold model for mail processing

Multi-agent algorithms inspired by the division of labour in social insects are applied to a problem of distributed mail retrieval in which agents must visit mail producing cities and choose between mail types under certain constraints.The efficiency (i.e. the average amount of mail retrieved per time step), and the flexibility (i.e. the capability of the agents to react to changes in the environment) are investigated both in static and dynamic environments. New rules for mail selection and specialisation are introduced and are shown to exhibit improved efficiency and flexibility compared to existing ones. We employ a genetic algorithm which allows the various rules to evolve and compete. Apart from obtaining optimised parameters for the various rules for any environment, we also observe extinction and speciation. From a more theoretical point of view, in order to avoid finite size effects, most results are obtained for large population sizes. However, we do analyse the influence of population size on the performance. Furthermore, we critically analyse the causes of efficiency loss, derive the exact dynamics of the model in the large system limit under certain conditions, derive theoretical upper bounds for the efficiency, and compare these with the experimental results.

Effect of mobility on violence in a bi-communal population

We develop a multi-agent based model to simulate a population which comprises of two ethnic groups and a peacekeeping force. We investigate the effects of different strategies for civilian movement to the resulting violence in this bi-communal population. Specifically, we compare and contrast random and race-based migration strategies. Race-based migration leads the formation of clusters. Previous work in this area has shown that same-race clustering instigates violent behavior in otherwise passive segments of the population. Our findings confirm this. Furthermore, we show that in settings where only one of the two races adopts race-based migration it is a winning strategy especially in violently predisposed populations. On the other hand, in relatively peaceful settings clustering is a restricting factor which causes the race that adopts it to drift into annihilation. Finally, we show that when race-based migration is adopted as a strategy by both ethnic groups it results in peaceful co-existence even in the most violently predisposed populations.

The role of stochasticity in an information-optimal neural population code

In this paper we consider the optimisation of Shannon mutual information (MI) in the context of two model neural systems The first is a stochastic pooling network (population) of McCulloch-Pitts (MP) type neurons (logical threshold units) subject to stochastic forcing; the second is (in a rate coding paradigm) a population of neurons that each displays Poisson statistics (the so called 'Poisson neuron'). The mutual information is optimised as a function of a parameter that characterises the 'noise level'-in the MP array this parameter is the standard deviation of the noise, in the population of Poisson neurons it is the window length used to determine the spike count. In both systems we find that the emergent neural architecture and; hence, code that maximises the MI is strongly influenced by the noise level. Low noise levels leads to a heterogeneous distribution of neural parameters (diversity), whereas, medium to high noise levels result in the clustering of neural parameters into distinct groups that can be interpreted as subpopulations In both cases the number of subpopulations increases with a decrease in noise level. Our results suggest that subpopulations are a generic feature of an information optimal neural population.

Meta-analysis of the population and phenotypic expression of CYP2C9/2C19 polymorphism on drug metabolism in different ethnicities

The term "pharmacogenetics" has been defined as the scientific study of inherited factors that affect the human drug response. Many pharmacogenetie studies have been published since 1995 and have focussed on the principal enzyme family involved in drug metabolism, the cytochrome P450 family, particularly cytochrome P4502C9 and 2C19. In order to investigate the pharmacogenetic aspect of pharmacotherapy, the relevant studies describing the association of pharmacogenetic factor(s) in drug responses must be retrieved from existing literature using a systematic review approach. In addition, the estimation of variant allele prevalence for the gene under study between different ethnic populations is important for pharmacogenetic studies. In this thesis, the prevalence of CYP2C9/2C19 alleles between different ethnicities has been estimated through meta-analysis and the population genetic principle. The clinical outcome of CYP2C9/2C19 allelic variation on the pharmacotherapy of epilepsy has been investigated; although many new antiepileptic drugs have been launched into the market, carbamazepine, phenobarbital and phenytoin are still the major agents in the pharmacotherapy of epilepsy. Therefore, phenytoin was chosen as a model AED and the effect of CYP2C9/2C19 genetic polymorphism on phenytoin metabolism was further examined.An estimation of the allele prevalence was undertaken for three CYP2C9/2C19 alleles respectively using a meta-analysis of studies that fit the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The prevalence of CYP2C9*1 is approximately 81%, 96%, 97% and 94% in Caucasian, Chinese, Japanese, African populations respectively; the pooled prevalence of CYP2C19*1 is about 86%, 57%, 58% and 85% in these ethnic populations respectively. However, the studies of association between CYP2C9/2C19 polymorphism and phenytoin metabolism failed to achieve any qualitative or quantitative conclusion. Therefore, mephenytoin metabolism was examined as a probe drug for association between CYP2C19 polymorphism and mephenytoin metabolic ratio. Similarly, analysis of association between CYP2C9 polymorphism and warfarin dose requirement was undertaken.It was confirmed that subjects carrying two mutated CYP2C19 alleles have higher S/R mephenytoin ratio due to deficient CYP2C19 enzyme activity. The studies of warfarin and CYP2C9 polymorphism did not provide a conclusive result due to poor comparability between studies.The genetic polymorphism of drug metabolism enzymes has been studied extensively, however other genetic factors, such as multiple drug resistance genes (MDR) and genes encoding ion channels, which may contribute to variability in function of drug transporters and targets, require more attention in future pharmacogenetic studies of antiepileptic drugs.

The development of a regional energy assessment model

Shropshire Energy Team initiated this study to examine consumption and associated emissions in the predominantly rural county of Shropshire. Current use of energy is not sustainable in the long term and there are various approaches to dealing with the environmental problems it creates. Energy planning by a local authority for a sustainable future requires detailed energy consumption and environmental information. This information would enable target setting and the implementation of policies designed to encourage energy efficiency improvements and exploitation of renewable energy resources. This could aid regeneration strategies by providing new employment opportunities. Associated reductions in carbon dioxide and other emissions would help to meet national and international environmental targets. In the absence of this detailed information, the objective was to develop a methodology to assess energy consumption and emissions on a regional basis from 1990 onwards for all local planning authorities. This would enable a more accurate assessment of the relevant issues, such that plans are more appropriate and longer lasting. A first comprehensive set of data has been gathered from a wide range of sources and a strong correlation was found between population and energy consumption for a variety of regions across the UK. In this case the methodology was applied to the county of Shropshire to give, for the first time, estimates of primary fuel consumption, electricity consumption and associated emissions in Shropshire for 1990 to 2025. The estimates provide a suitable baseline for assessing the potential contribution renewable energy could play in meeting electricity demand in the country and in reducing emissions. The assessment indicated that in 1990 total primary fuel consumption was 63,518,018 GJ/y increasing to 119,956,465 GJ/y by 2025. This is associated with emissions of 1,129,626 t/y of carbon in 1990 rising to 1,303,282 t/y by 2025. In 1990, 22,565,713 GJ/y of the primary fuel consumption was used for generating electricity rising to 23,478,050 GJ/y in 2025. If targets to reduce primary fuel consumption are reached, then emissions of carbon would fall to 1,042,626 by 2025, if renewable energy targets were also reached then emissions of carbon would fall to 988,638 t/y by 2025.

The planning and management of health for development:a model for Zimbabwe

In this thesis, I view the historical background of Zimbabwe to show the patterns of traditional life that existed prior to settlerism. The form, nature, pace and impact of settlerism and colonialism up to the time of independence are also discussed to show how they affected the health of the population and the pace of development of the country. The political, social and economic underdevelopment of the African people that occurred in Zimbabwe prior to independence was a result of deliberate, politically motivated and controlled policy initiatives. These led to inequatable, inadequate, inappropriate and inaccessible health care provision. It is submitted that since it was the politics that determined the pace of underdevelopment, it must be the politics that must be at the forefront of the development strategy adopted. In the face of the amed conflict that existed in Zimbabwe, existing frameworks of analyses are shown to be inadequate for planning purposes because of their inability to provide indications about the stability of future outcomes. The Metagame technique of analysis of options is proposed as a methology that can be applied in such situations. It rejects deterministic predicative models as misleading and advocates an interactive model based on objective and subjective valuation of human behaviour. In conclusion, the search for stable outcomes rather than optimal and best solutions strategies is advocated in decision making in organisations of all sizes.