Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Effect of food on immature development, consumption rate, and relative growth rate of Toxorhynchites splendens (Diptera: Culicidae), a predator of container breeding mosquitoes

Food utilization by the larvae of Toxorhynchites splendens (Wiedemann) was studied in the laboratory by offering larvae of Aedes aegypti Linnaeus, Anopheles stephensi (Liston), and Culex quinquefasciatus (Say). Quantitative analyses of data indicated that immature development was significantly faster with increase in food availability. The regression analysis showed that the degrees of the relationship between immature duration (Id) and food availability were higher when offered early instars of prey (first and second instars) than late instars. Consumption rate (Cr) of the predator increased with increase in food availability and this relationship was highly significant when larvae of An. stephensi were offered as food. Consumption rate to food level decreased with increase in the age class of the prey. There was a significant negative correlation between Id and Cr. This aspect helps to increase population turnover of T. splendens in a shorter period when the prey is abundant. Conversely, the predator compensated the loss in daily food intake at low food level by extending Id thereby attains the minimum threshold pupal weight for adult emergence. There was an increase in the relative growth rate (RGR) of the predator when An. stephensi was offered as prey and this was related to the high protein content of the prey per body weight. There was a positive correlation between Cr and RGR. This adaptive life characteristic strategy of this predator is useful for mass-rearing for large scale field release programmes in the control of container breeding mosquitoes is discussed.

How to increase the population of a Phlebotomus perniciosus (Diptera: Psychodidae) colony: a new method

The sandfly Phlebotomus perniciosus is the most widespread vector of Leishmania infantum in Spain. Laboratory colonisation represents the most feasible source of information on the biology of these insects, but in conducting any study, the density of individuals in the colony may drop to such an extent that it is sometimes difficult to recover the initial population levels. A new technique was tested for the recovery of sandfly eggs in three different colonies; the recovery rate was studied by comparing the standard method of mass rearing with this new method of colony management. The results demonstrate a mean increase of 18.4% in adult production, a growth in colony productivity that justifies the inclusion of this process in the routine maintenance of any colony of sandflies.

Prevalence of diabetes in a cancer population in a Malaga hospital.

BACKGROUND There are multiple risk factors for cancer, including obesity, sedentary lifestyle, diabetes (DM). Hormon Insulin is a growth factor that promotes cellular differentiation. AIMS The aim of our study is to observe impaired glycaemia in cancer population compared with control. METHODS We studied the prevalence of diabetes (DM) and impaired fasting glycaemia (IFG) in 374 patients with different types of cancer before treatment, by medical records in a Malaga hospital (Spain). We compared the prevalence of basal hyperglycaemia in these patients with general population, within an age range and by gender. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The prevalence of diabetes was 32.35% in our cancer patients. The comparison depends of age range, and by gender prevalence was: 45-54 years, DM: 40.91% in men cases, versus (vs.) 14.5% in men control (p = 0.005). 55-64 years, IFG: 23.08% in women cases, vs. 5.9% in women control (p = 0.001). 65-74 years, DM: 47.13% in men cases, vs. 25.4% in men control (p = 0.000), and IFG: 23.81% in women cases, vs. 9.5% in women control (p = 0.019). We found a higher prevalence of diabetes in specific types of cancer such as prostate (p < 0.005). Moreover, men had a higher prevalence of diabetes or less diabetes control than women in our cancer sample. CONCLUSIONS We recommend an OGTT (oral glucose tolerance test) for better diagnosis of possible DM in patients with cancer, and an appropriate treatment. It may be an independent risk factor for cancer to have decreased insulin activity, or DM.

Genetic diversity and host plant preferences revealed by simple sequence repeat and mitochondrial markers in a population of the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus Glomus intraradices.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are important symbionts of plants that improve plant nutrient acquisition and promote plant diversity. Although within-species genetic differences among AMF have been shown to differentially affect plant growth, very little is actually known about the degree of genetic diversity in AMF populations. This is largely because of difficulties in isolation and cultivation of the fungi in a clean system allowing reliable genotyping to be performed. A population of the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus Glomus intraradices growing in an in vitro cultivation system was studied using newly developed simple sequence repeat (SSR), nuclear gene intron and mitochondrial ribosomal gene intron markers. The markers revealed a strong differentiation at the nuclear and mitochondrial level among isolates. Genotypes were nonrandomly distributed among four plots showing genetic subdivisions in the field. Meanwhile, identical genotypes were found in geographically distant locations. AMF genotypes showed significant preferences to different host plant species (Glycine max, Helianthus annuus and Allium porrum) used before the fungal in vitro culture establishment. Host plants in a field could provide a heterogeneous environment favouring certain genotypes. Such preferences may partly explain within-population patterns of genetic diversity.

Microstructural, chemical and textural records during growth of snowball garnet

The growth history of two populations of snowball garnet from the Lukmanier Pass area (central Swiss Alps) was examined through a detailed analysis of three-dimensional geometry, chemical zoning and crystallographic orientation. The first population, collected in the hinge of a chevron-type fold, shows an apparent rotation of 360 degrees. The first 270 degrees are characterized by spiral-shaped inclusion trails, gradual and concentric Mn zoning and a single crystallographic orientation, whereas in the last 90 degrees, crenulated inclusion trails and secondary Mn maxima centred on distinct crystallographic garnet domains are observed. Microstructural, geochemical and textural data indicate a radical change in growth regime between the two growth sequences. In the first 270 degrees, growth occurred under rotational non-coaxial flow, whereas in the last 90 degrees, garnet grew under a non-rotational shortening regime. The second population, collected in the limb of the same chevron-type fold structure, is characterized by a spiral geometry that does not exceed 270 degrees of apparent rotation. These garnet microstructures do not record any evidence for a modification of the stress field during garnet growth. Concentric Mn zoning as well as a single crystallographic orientation are observed for the entire spiral. Electron backscatter diffraction data indicate that nearly all central domains in the snowball garnet are characterized by one [001] axis oriented (sub-)parallel to the symmetry axis and by another [001] axis oriented (sub-)parallel to the orientation of the internal foliation. These features suggest that the crystallographic orientation across the garnet spiral is not random and that a relation exists among the symmetry axis, the internal foliation and the crystallographic orientation.

Fishery-induced selection on an Alpine whitefish: quantifying genetic and environmental effects on individual growth rate

Size-selective fishing, environmental changes and reproductive strategies are expected to affect life-history traits such as the individual growth rate. The relative contribution of these factors is not clear, particularly whether size-selective fishing can have a substantial impact on the genetics and hence on the evolution of individual growth rates in wild populations. We analysed a 25-year monitoring survey of an isolated population of the Alpine whitefish Coregonus palaea. We determined the selection differentials on growth rate, the actual change of growth rate over time and indicators of reproductive strategies that may potentially change over time. The selection differential can be reliably estimated in our study population because almost all the fish are harvested within their first years of life, i.e. few fish escape fishing mortality. We found a marked decline in average adult growth rate over the 25 years and a significant selection differential for adult growth, but no evidence for any linear change in reproductive strategies over time. Assuming that the heritability of growth in this whitefish corresponds to what was found in other salmonids, about a third of the observed decline in growth rate would be linked to fishery-induced evolution. Size-selective fishing seems to affect substantially the genetics of individual growth in our study population.

An Analysis of Regional Economic Growth in the U.S. Midwest, April 2005

In this paper we examine some of the economic forces that underlie economic growth at the county level. In an effort to describe a much more comprehensive regional economic growth model, we address a variety of different growth hypotheses by introducing a large number of growth related variables. When formulating our hypotheses and specifying our growth model we make liberal use of GIS (geographical information systems) mapping software to “paint” a picture of where growth spots exist. Our empirical estimation indicates that amenities, state and local tax burdens, population, amount of primary agriculture activity, and demographics have important impacts on economic growth.

Earthquake impacts in old-growth Nothofagus forests in New Zealand

Six stands located on different land forms in mixed old-growth Nothofagus forests in the Matiri Valley (northwest of South Island. New Zealand) were sampled to examine the effects of two recent large earthquakes on tree establishment and tree-ring growth, and how these varied across land forms. 50 trees were cor ed in each stand to determine age structure and the cores were cross-dated to precisely date unusual periods of radial growth. The 1968 earthquake (M = 7.1, epicentre 35 km from the study area) had no discernible impact on the sampled stands. The impact of the 1929 earthquake (M = 7.7, epicentre 20 kin from the study area) varied between stands, depending on whether or not they had been damaged by soil or rock movement. In all stands, the age structures showed a pulse of N. fusca establishment following the 1929 earthquake, with this species dominating establishment in large gaps created by landslides. Smaller gaps, created by branch or tree death, were closed by both N. fusca and N. menziesii. The long period of releases (1929-1945) indicates that direct earthquake damage was not the only cause of tree death, and that many trees died subsequently most likely of pathogen attack or a drought in the early 1930s. The impacts of the 1929 earthquake are compared to a storm in 1905 and a drought in 1974-1978 which also affected forests in the region. Our results confirm that earthquakes are an important factor driving forest dynamics in this tectonically active region, and that the diversity of earthquake impacts is a major source of heterogeneity in forest structure and regeneration.

Population density and offspring size in the cladoceran Simocephalus vetulus (Müller)

r/K theory classically predicts that offspring size should increase under density-dependent selection. However, this is questionable, being based on implicit rather than explicit assumption (the logistic model does not include offsring size as a parameter). From recent models of optimal offspring size (Sibly & Calow, 1983; Taylor & Williams, 1984) it can be shown that density should select for larger offspring if density-dependence in the per capita rate of increase is mainly due to a reduction of the juvenile growth rate or survivorship. In contrast, density should select for smaller offspring if such density-dependence is mainly due to a reduction of adult fecundity or survivorship. Therfore, the outcome of selection cannot be predicted without precise knowledge of the density-dependence of age-specific reproduction and mortality rates. To test the above models, genetically identical individuals of Simocephalus vetulus (Müller) were reared in a density gradient; density-dependence in the per capita rate of increase was shown to be mainly due to a reduction of the juvenile growth rate, thereby selecting for larger offspring; offspring size at birth appeared to be phenotypically plastic and to increase with density. Models were therefore qualitatively supported. However, a discrepancy occurred in quantitative predictions; offspring were produced larger than predicted. Field and laboratory studies are suggested to address this.

The Three Horsemen of Growth: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe

How did Europe overtake China? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors, and use it to explain how European per capita incomes and urbanization rates could surge ahead of Chinese ones. That living standards could exceed subsistence levels at all in a Malthusian setting should be surprising. Rising fertility and falling mortality ought to have reversed any gains. We show that productivity growth in Europe can only explain a small fraction of rising living standards. Population dynamics - changes of the birth and death schedules - were far more important drivers of the longrun Malthusian equilibrium. The Black Death raised wages substantially, creating important knock-on effects. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, raising urban wages and attracting migrants from rural areas. European cities were unhealthy, especially compared to Far Eastern ones. Urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by more frequent wars (fed by city wealth) and disease spread by trade. Thus, higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. Without technological change, our model can account for the sharp rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes. We complement our calibration exercise with a detailed analysis of intra-European growth in the early modern period. Using a panel of European states in the period 1300-1700, we show that war frequency can explain a good share of the divergent fortunes within Europe.

Intraocular penetration of penciclovir after oral administration of famciclovir: a population pharmacokinetic model.

OBJECTIVES: We developed a population model that describes the ocular penetration and pharmacokinetics of penciclovir in human aqueous humour and plasma after oral administration of famciclovir. METHODS: Fifty-three patients undergoing cataract surgery received a single oral dose of 500 mg of famciclovir prior to surgery. Concentrations of penciclovir in both plasma and aqueous humour were measured by HPLC with fluorescence detection. Concentrations in plasma and aqueous humour were fitted using a two-compartment model (NONMEM software). Inter-individual and intra-individual variabilities were quantified and the influence of demographics and physiopathological and environmental variables on penciclovir pharmacokinetics was explored. RESULTS: Drug concentrations were fitted using a two-compartment, open model with first-order transfer rates between plasma and aqueous humour compartments. Among tested covariates, creatinine clearance, co-intake of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and body weight significantly influenced penciclovir pharmacokinetics. Plasma clearance was 22.8 ± 9.1 L/h and clearance from the aqueous humour was 8.2 × 10(-5) L/h. AUCs were 25.4 ± 10.2 and 6.6 ± 1.8 μg · h/mL in plasma and aqueous humour, respectively, yielding a penetration ratio of 0.28 ± 0.06. Simulated concentrations in the aqueous humour after administration of 500 mg of famciclovir three times daily were in the range of values required for 50% growth inhibition of non-resistant strains of the herpes zoster virus family. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma and aqueous penciclovir concentrations showed significant variability that could only be partially explained by renal function, body weight and comedication. Concentrations in the aqueous humour were much lower than in plasma, suggesting that factors in the blood-aqueous humour barrier might prevent its ocular penetration or that redistribution occurs in other ocular compartments.

Intraspecific competition reveals conditional fitness effects of single gene polymorphism at the Arabidopsis root growth regulator BRX.

Intraspecific genetic variation for morphological traits is observed in many organisms. In Arabidopsis thaliana, alleles responsible for intraspecific morphological variation are increasingly being identified. However, the fitness consequences remain unclear in most cases. Here, the fitness effects of alleles of the BRX gene are investigated. A brx loss-of-function allele, which was found in a natural accession, results in a highly branched but poorly elongated root system. Comparison between the control accession Sav-0 and an introgression of brx into this background (brxS) indicated that, surprisingly, brx loss of function did not negatively affect fitness in pure stands. However, in mixed, well-watered stands brxS performance and reproductive output decreased significantly, as the proportion of Sav-0 neighbors increased. Additional comparisons between brxS and a brxS line that was complemented by a BRX transgene confirmed a direct effect of the loss-of-function allele on plant performance, as indicated by restored competitive ability of the transgenic genotype. Further, because plant height was very similar across genotypes and because the experimental setup largely excluded shading effects, the impaired competitiveness of the brx loss-of-function genotype likely reflects below-ground competition. In summary, these data reveal conditional fitness effects of a single gene polymorphism in response to intraspecific competition in Arabidopsis.

Regional growth in Japan

I study the role of internal migration in income convergence acrossregions in Japan. Neoclassical theory predicts that migration should have beenan important source of convergence. Regression results, however, suggest thatmigration did not contribute to convergence. I investigate the possibilitythat this discrepancy is explained by taking into account the effects ofmigration on population composition, especially on educational attainment.I propose an empirical approach to quantify this ``educational compositioneffect''. It is shown that, although this effect did slow down convergence,its magnitude was too small to account for the discrepancy between theoryand empirics.

Responsiveness of astrocytes in serum-free aggregate cultures to epidermal growth factor: dependence on the cell cycle and the epidermal growth factor concentration.

Serum-free aggregating cell cultures of fetal rat telencephalon treated with low doses (0.5 nM) of epidermal growth factor (EGF) showed a small, transient increase in DNA synthesis but no significant changes in total DNA and protein content. By contrast, treatment with high doses (13 nM) of EGF caused a marked stimulation of DNA synthesis as well as a net increase in DNA and protein content. The expression of the astrocyte-specific enzyme, glutamine synthetase, was greatly enhanced both at low and at high EGF concentrations. These results suggest that at low concentration EGF stimulates exclusively the differentiation of astrocytes, whereas at high concentration, EGF has also a mitogenic effect. Nonproliferating astrocytes in cultures treated with 0.4 microM 1-beta-D-arabinofuranosyl-cytosine were refractory to EGF treatment, indicating that their responsiveness to EGF is cell cycle-dependent. Binding studies using a crude membrane fraction of 5-day cultures showed a homogeneous population of EGF binding sites (Kd approximately equal to 2.6 nM). Specific EGF binding sites were found also in non-proliferating (and nonresponsive) cultures, although they showed slightly reduced affinity and binding capacity. This finding suggests that the cell cycle-dependent control of astroglial responsiveness to EGF does not occur at the receptor level. However, it was found that the specific EGF binding sites disappear with progressive cellular differentiation.