Some factors affecting diagnostic accuracy

Diagnosis involves a complex and overlapping series of steps, each of which may be a source of error and of variability between clinicians. This variation may involve the ability to elicit relevant information from the client or animal, in the accuracy, objectivity and completeness of relevant memory stores, and in psychological attributes including tolerance for uncertainty and willingness to engage in constructive self-criticism. The diagnostic acumen of an individual clinician may not be constant, varying with external and personal factors, with different clients and cases, and with the use made of tests. In relation to clients, variations may occur in the ability to gain their confidence, to ask appropriate questions and to evaluate accurately both verbal and nonverbal responses. Tests may introduce problems of accuracy, validity, sensitivity, specificity, interpretation and general appropriateness for the case. Continuing effectiveness as a diagnostician therefore requires constant attention to the maintenance of adequate and up-to-date skills and knowledge relating to the animals and their diseases and to tests, and of sensitive interpersonal skills.

Television and cultural studies: Unfinished business

This introductory article argues that the current state of debate on television within cultural studies is marked by considerable areas of theoretical and political uncertainty. The spread of deregulatory and privatizing public policies in relation to television, and the disarticulation of television from the idea of the national community and from the role of the citizen, have posed new problems for theorizing the relation between television and its audiences. In this article I survey a number of key areas of debate: the relation between television, the nation and the state; television and the citizen/consumer, television content and performance, and the likely future(s) of television.

A critical appraisal of the intrinsic pancreatic angiotensin-generating system

The pancreas is a relative newcomer to the stable of tissues with an intrinsic angiotensin-generating system. The involvement of this system in pancreatic activity will be dependent on the angiotensin-generating paths present in the pancreas and their precise cellular location. Thus far, renin, angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE), angiotensin II and AT1 and AT2 receptors have been found. These are components of the "classical" renin-angiotensin system. But there is uncertainty as to their location and site of action. Furthermore, it is not known which, if any, alternative enzymes to renin and ACE are present, which angiotensins in addition to angiotensin II are generated and whether or not there are receptors to angiotensin IV and angiotensin-(1-7). Future research should focus on these aspects in order to provide a mechanistic basis to pancreatic physiological functions and to pathological conditions of clinical relevance.

Theory and applications of fuzzy Volterra integral equations

Formulations of fuzzy integral equations in terms of the Aumann integral do not reflect the behavior of corresponding crisp models. Consequently, they are ill-adapted to describe physical phenomena, even when vagueness and uncertainty are present. A similar situation for fuzzy ODEs has been obviated by interpretation in terms of families of differential inclusions. The paper extends this formalism to fuzzy integral equations and shows that the resulting solution sets and attainability sets are fuzzy and far better descriptions of uncertain models involving integral equations. The investigation is restricted to Volterra type equations with mildly restrictive conditions, but the methods are capable of extensive generalization to other types and more general assumptions. The results are illustrated by integral equations relating to control models with fuzzy uncertainties.

Asian elephants as agricultural pests: Economics of control and compensation in Sri Lanka

Despite growing attention to crop and property damage caused by the Asian elephant, uncertainty exists about the magnitude of this problem. This article explores the nature and, Magnitude of this problem in Sri Lanka. An economic analysis of individual farmers'. decisions to control elephants is provided. Government policies to assist farmers in coping with the elephant pest problem are assessed. Appropriate compensation schemes for farmers are seen as potentially more effective for conserving elephants in Sri Lanka than legal prohibitions on the killing of elephants. The issues raised here have wider relevance than merely to Sri Lanka or Asian elephants.

Transducer for direct measurement of skin friction in hypervelocity impulse facilities

An acceleration compensated transducer was developed to enable the direct measurement of skin friction in hypervelocity impulse facilities. The gauge incorporated a measurement and acceleration element that employed direct shear of a piezoelectric ceramic. The design integrated techniques to maximize rise time and shear response while minimizing the affects of acceleration, pressure, heat transfer, and electrical interference. The arrangement resulted in a transducer natural frequency near 40 kHz. The transducer was calibrated for shear and acceleration in separate bench tests and was calibrated for pressure within an impulse facility. Uncertainty analyses identified only small experimental errors in the shear and acceleration calibration techniques. Although significant errors were revealed in the method of pressure calibration, total skin-friction measurement errors as low as +/-7-12% were established. The transducer was successfully utilized in a shock tunnel, and sample measurements are presented for flow conditions that simulate a flight Mach number near 8.

A new subfamily, Bothriocrotoninae n. subfam., for the genus Bothriocroton Keirans, King & Sharrad, 1994 status amend. (Ixodida : Ixodidae), and the synonymy of Aponomma Neumann, 1899 with Amblyomma Koch, 1844

Evidence suggesting polyphyly of the traditionally recognised tick genus Aponomma Neumann, 1899 is summarized. Continued recognition of this genus in its current concept leaves a polyphyletic genus Aponomma and a paraphyletic genus Amblyomma Koch, 1844. To improve the correlation between our understanding of phylogenetic relationships in metastriate ticks and their classification, a few changes in classification are proposed. The members of the 'indigenous Australian Aponomma' group (sensu Kaufman, 1972), A. auruginans Schulze, 1936, A. concolor Neumann, 1899, A. glebopalma Keirans, King & Sharrad, 1994, A. hydrosauri (Denny, 1843) and A. undatum (Fabricius, 1775), are transferred to Bothriocroton Keirans, King & Sharrad, 1994, which is raised to full generic rank. The remaining members of Aponomma are transferred to Amblyomma. Uncertainty remains on relationships of Bothriocroton to other metastriate lineages and on the systematic position of the two species formerly included in the 'primitive Aponomma' group, A. elaphense Price, 1959 and A. sphenodonti Dumbleton, 1943.

Making decisions about treatment for localized prostate cancer

Objective To describe the decision-making processes used by men diagnosed with localized prostate cancer who were considering treatment. Patients and methods Men newly diagnosed with localized prostate cancer from outpatient urology clinics and urologist's private practices were approached before treatment. Their decision-making processes and information-seeking behaviour was assessed; demographic information was also obtained. Results Of 119 men approached, 108 (90%) were interviewed; 91% reported non-systematic decision processes, with deferral to the doctor, positive and negative recollections of others' cancer experiences, and the pre-existing belief that surgery is a better cancer treatment being most common. For systematic information processing the mean (SD, range) number of items considered was 4.19 (2.28, 0-11), with 57% of men considering four or fewer treatment/medical aspects of prostate cancer. Men most commonly considered cancer stage (59%), urinary incontinence (55%) and impotence (51%) after surgery, and low overall mortality (45%). Uncertainty about probabilities for cure was reported by 43% of men and fear of cancer spread by 37%. Men also described uncertainty about the probabilities of side-effects (27%), decisional uncertainty (25%) and anticipated decisional regret (18%). Overall, 73% of men sought information about prostate cancer from external sources, most commonly the Internet, followed by family and friends. Conclusions In general, men did not use information about medical treatments comprehensively or systematically when making treatment decisions, and their processing of medical information was biased by their previous beliefs about cancer and health. These findings have implications for the provision of informational and decisional support to men considering prostate cancer treatment.

Corporate rumor activity, belief and accuracy

An integrated model relating workplace rumor activity, belief, and accuracy is proposed and tested. Senior VPs of Communications from a sample of Fortune-500 corporations and CEOs of established public relations firms were surveyed regarding rumor episodes that they had experienced. Results confirmed previous research on the role of uncertainty, anxiety, and belief in rumor activity. In addition, a reduced sense of control mediated the effects of uncertainty on anxiety, and anxiety mediated the effects of importance on rumor activity. Evidence was found for the roles of group bias in how strongly a rumor is believed. Rumor activity was also implicated in the formation of more accurate rumors. The significance of these results for rumor theory and for Public Relations practitioners is presented. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Ecological responses to recent climate change

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

A probabilistic analysis of Clostridium perfringens growth during food service operations

The purpose of this study was threefold: first, the study was designed to illustrate the use of data and information collected in food safety surveys in a quantitative risk assessment. In this case, the focus was on the food service industry; however, similar data from other parts of the food chain could be similarly incorporated. The second objective was to quantitatively describe and better understand the role that the food service industry plays in the safety of food. The third objective was to illustrate the additional decision-making information that is available when uncertainty and variability are incorporated into the modelling of systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Skin-friction measurements in high-enthalpy hypersonic boundary layers

Skin-friction measurements are reported for high-enthalpy and high-Mach-number laminar, transitional and turbulent boundary layers. The measurements were performed in a free-piston shock tunnel with air-flow Mach number, stagnation enthalpy and Reynolds numbers in the ranges of 4.4-6.7, 3-13 MJ kg(-1) and 0.16 x 10(6)-21 x 10(6), respectively. Wall temperatures were near 300 K and this resulted in ratios of wall enthalpy to flow-stagnation enthalpy in the range of 0.1-0.02. The experiments were performed using rectangular ducts. The measurements were accomplished using a new skin-friction gauge that was developed for impulse facility testing. The gauge was an acceleration compensated piezoelectric transducer and had a lowest natural frequency near 40 kHz. Turbulent skin-friction levels were measured to within a typical uncertainty of +/-7%. The systematic uncertainty in measured skin-friction coefficient was high for the tested laminar conditions; however, to within experimental uncertainty, the skin-friction and heat-transfer measurements were in agreement with the laminar theory of van Driest (1952). For predicting turbulent skin-friction coefficient, it was established that, for the range of Mach numbers and Reynolds numbers of the experiments, with cold walls and boundary layers approaching the turbulent equilibrium state, the Spalding & Chi (1964) method was the most suitable of the theories tested. It was also established that if the heat transfer rate to the wall is to be predicted, then the Spalding & Chi (1964) method should be used in conjunction with a Reynolds analogy factor near unity. If more accurate results are required, then an experimentally observed relationship between the Reynolds analogy factor and the skin-friction coefficient may be applied.

Warranty and optimal reliability improvement through product development

For products sold with warranty, the warranty servicing cost can be reduced by improving product reliability through a development process. However, this increases the unit manufacturing cost. Optimal development must achieve a trade-off between these two costs. The outcome of the development process is uncertain and needs to be taken into account in the determination of the optimal development effort. The paper develops a model where this uncertainty is taken into account. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Narrating the guillotine: Punishment technology as myth and symbol

The work of Michel Foucault sees modern penal technology its ann expression of power that operates through and is motivated by a dry instrumental reason. This article draws upon Durkheim and Bakhtin to advance a radically alternative approach. It is suggested that such technology is invested with sacred and profane symbolism and is understood via emotionally charged, dramatically compelling narrative frames. Tensions between official and unauthorized discourses can be understood through a center/periphery model of culture. In an extended case study of the guillotine, it is shown dial the apparatus was initially legitimated as an expression of a sacred revolutionary code. Such a discourse was subsequently destabilized by popular medical debates that raised the specter of pain after decapitation. While inconclusive, these new motifs mobilized Gothic and grotesque themes that confronted the rationalist aesthetics of the guillotine. A situation of Bakhtinian hetoroglossia eventuated. Uncertainty, the uncanny and fable entered a discursive field of increasing complexity.

Continuous variable polarization entanglement, experiment and analysis

We generate and characterize continuous variable polarization entanglement between two optical beams. We first produce quadrature entanglement, and by performing local operations we transform it into a polarization basis. We extend two entanglement criteria, the inseparability criteria proposed by Duan et al (2000 Phys. Rev. Lett. 84 2722) and the Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen (EPR) paradox criteria proposed by Reid and Drummond (1988 Phys. Rev. Lett. 60 2731), to Stokes operators; and use them to characterize the entanglement. Our results for the EPR paradox criteria are visualized in terms of uncertainty balls on the Poincaré sphere. We demonstrate theoretically that using two quadrature entangled pairs it is possible to entangle three orthogonal Stokes operators between a pair of beams, although with a bound √3 times more stringent than for the quadrature entanglement.