Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Group fission in Nilgiri langurs (Presbytis johnii)

During a field study on habituated groups of wild Nilgiri langurs (Presbytis johnii), four cases of group fission were observed which differed markedly from group changes reported in other species of the same genus. All fissions occurred in groups with more than one mature male and roughly coincided with the onset of loud call vocalization by the second mature male group member. As a result of the fission the founder group factions acquired the structure of a onemale group. The filial factions consisted of both mature males and females and occupied, at least temporarily, a part of, or an area adjacent to, the founder group. During fission, the amount of aggressive interactions between the two mature males increased. However, the majority of agonistic interactions involved ritualized threat and intimidation behavior without physical aggression. In at least three cases the two mature males involved in the fission had not joined recently but had lived in these groups for three years or more. Although the presence of all male bands and single males in the two study populations indicate that male replacement by invasive takeovers may occur, it is suggested that in Nilgiri langurs, noninvasive fissions are probably another common mechanism for the foundation and maintenance of bisexual one-male groups.

Role of hydroxyl group on the mesomorphism of alkyl glycosides:synthesis and thermal behavior of alkyl 6-deoxy-beta-D-glucopyranosides

A homologous series of alkyl 6-deoxy-beta-D-glucopyranoside amphiphiles was prepared,in an effort to identify the role of hydroxyl group in the mesomorphic behavior of alkyl glycosides. Synthesis was performed by a chlorination of the sugar moiety in alkyl-beta-D-glucopyranosides with methylsulfonyl chloride in DMF, followed by a metal mediated dehalogenation to secure alkyl 6-deoxy-beta-D-glucopyranosides, wherein the alkyl chain length varied from C-9 to C-16. The mesomorphic behavior of these 6-deoxy alkyl glycosides was assessed using polarizing optical microscopy, differential scanning calorimetry and X-ray diffraction method. Whereas the lower homologues exhibited a monotropic SmA phase till sub-ambient temperatures, the higher homologues formed a plastic phase. A partial interdigitized bilaye structure of SmA phase is inferred from experimental d-spacing and computationally derived lengths of the molecules. The results were compared with those of normal alkyl glucopyranosides, retained with hydroxyl groups at C-2-C-6 carbons, and alkyl 2-deoxy-glucopyranosides, devoid of a hydroxyl group at C-2 and the comparison showed important differences in the mesomorphic behavior.(C)2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-Rate,2-Group ML-Decodable STBCs for 2(m) Transmit Antennas

A Space-Time Block Code (STBC) in K-variables is said to be g-Group ML-Decodable (GMLD) if its Maximum-Likelihood (ML) decoding metric can be written as a sum of g independent terms, with each term being a function of a subset of the K variables. In this paper, a construction method to obtain high-rate, 2-GMLD STBCs for 2(m) transmit antennas, m > 1, is presented. The rate of the STBC obtained for 2(m) transmit antennas is 2(m-2) + 1/2(m), complex symbols per channel use. The design method is illustrated for the case of 4 and 8 transmit antennas. The code obtained for 4 transmit antennas is equivalent to the rate-5/4 Quasi-Orthogonal design (QOD) proposed by Yuen, Guan and Tjung.

A density matrix renormalization group study of low-lying excitations of polythiophene within a Pariser-Parr-Pople model

Symmetrized density-matrix-renormalization-group calculations have been carried out, within Pariser-Parr-Pople Hamiltonian, to explore the nature of the ground and low-lying excited states of long polythiophene oligomers. We have exploited C-2 symmetry and spin parity of the system to obtain excited states of experimental interest, and studied the lowest dipole allowed excited state and lowest dipole forbidden two photon state, for different oligomer sizes. In the long system limit, the dipole allowed excited state always lies below the lowest dipole forbidden two-photon state which implies, by Kasha rule, that polythiophene fluoresces strongly. The lowest triplet state lies below two-photon state as usual in conjugated polymers. We have doped the system with a hole and an electron and obtained the charge excitation gap and the binding energy of the 1(1)B(u)(-) exciton. We have calculated the charge density of the ground, one-photon and two-photon states for the longer system size of 10 thiophene rings to characterize these states. We have studied bond order in these states to get an idea about the equilibrium excited state geometry of the system. We have also studied the charge density distribution of the singly and doubly doped polarons for longer system size, and observe that polythiophenes do not support bipolarons.

Globalization and the Political : in the Borderlands with the Zapatista Movement

This study explores the meaning, content and significance of the political as manifest in the Mexican Zapatista movement as historically and geopolitically situated struggle. The case study undertakes a critical analysis of the development, organization, practice and discourse of the movement by drawing on fieldwork experiences, interviews, discussions, documents, films and other material produced by the movement, and the critical engagement with the research of others, especially in Latin America and Mexico. The dissertation poses the need to reconsider what constitutes and what we understand by the political , related particularly to the challenges provided by the critical globalization literature, decolonization and the study of social movements. The analysis encompasses several inter-related levels: the theoretical knowledge regarding the conceptualization of the political; the methodological level, regarding how such research can and should be conducted and knowledge claims formulated given the inescapable context and effects of global power relations; and the substantive level of adding specific information and analytical insights to existing knowledge of the Zapatista movement. As a result of conceptualization of a range of practices and processes, distinct understandings of the political can be underlined. Firstly, the conception of the indigenous and the struggles as indigenous movements as specifically political, not just a cultural or ethnic identity or a static quality but rather, an active consciousness integrally linked both to a longer history of oppression and as political articulation in the concrete context and lived experience of contemporary struggle. Secondly, the practice of autonomy as central to an understanding of the political in the context of the Zapatista struggle as a practical response to the situation of oppression, counter-insurgency, siege and conflict in Chiapas, as well as a positively informed mode of political self-understanding, expression and practice in its own right. Thirdly, the notion of geopolitical positioning as important to understanding of the political that encompasses the historicity of specific context and the power relations which shape that context, developed in two different ways: in regard to the positioning of the researcher and knowledge production with and about the Zapatistas, and in regard to the practice and knowledge of the Zapatistas as a decolonizing force in their encounters, interaction and relations with others, especially the global civil society. Finally, the role of silence, absence, invisibility, revelation and hiding in political practice as a deliberate strategy in response to oppressive power. -

Gauge theory of a group of diffeomorphisms. III. The fiber bundle description

A new fiber bundle approach to the gauge theory of a group G that involves space‐time symmetries as well as internal symmetries is presented. The ungauged group G is regarded as the group of left translations on a fiber bundle G(G/H,H), where H is a closed subgroup and G/H is space‐time. The Yang–Mills potential is the pullback of the Maurer–Cartan form and the Yang–Mills fields are zero. More general diffeomorphisms on the bundle space are then identified as the appropriate gauged generalizations of the left translations, and the Yang–Mills potential is identified as the pullback of the dual of a certain kind of vielbein on the group manifold. The Yang–Mills fields include a torsion on space‐time.

The struggle for protection of environmental refugees: who's responsibility? Discourses from the United Nations and Non-governmental organizations

This thesis identifies, examines and problematizes some of the discourses that have so far come to light on the issue of protection for environmental refugees. By analyzing the discourses produced by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and two non-governmental organizations - the Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF) and Equity and Justice Working Group Bangladesh (EquityBD), I examine the struggling discourses that have emerged about how protection for environmental refugees has been interpreted. To do this, I rely on Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe's theory and method of discourse analysis. The results show that responsibilization is the main point of struggle in the discussions on the protection of environmental refugees. As a floating signifier, it was utilized by the discourses produced by the UNCHR and the selected NGOs in contingent ways and with different political objectives. The UNHCR discourse responsibilized both the environmental refugees for their own protection and the individual states. The EJF and EquityBD, by contrast, allocated responsibility for the protection of environmental refugees to the international community. These contingent understandings of responsibilization necessitated different justifications. While the EJF discourse relied on humanitarianism for the assistance of environmental refugees, the EquityBD discourse constructed a rights based, more permanent solution. The humanitarian based discourse of the EJF was found to be inextricably linked with the neoliberal discourse produced by the UNHCR. Both these discourses encouraged environmental refugees to stay in their homelands, undermining the politics of protection. Another way in which protection was undermined was by UNHCR's discourse on securitization. In this context, climate change induced displacement became threat to developed countries, the global economy and transnational classes. The struggling discourses about who/what has been allocated responsibility for the protection of environmental refugees also meant that identities of the displaced be constructed in specific ways. While the UNHCR discourse constructed as voluntary migrants and predators, the EJF and EquityBD discourses portrayed them as victims. However, even though the EJF discourse constructed them as victims, their reliance on humanitarianism could also be interpreted as a way of giving the environmental refugee a predator like identity. These discourses on responsibilization and identity formation clashed with each other in the aim of achieving a hegemonic position in discussions and debates about the protection of environmental refugees.

Intermolecular Chelate Linkage Isomerism of the Hydroxyimino Group in the Nickel(II), Copper(II), and Palladium(II) Complexes of Quadridentate Schiff-base Ligands

The C-nitrosation of bivalent quadridentate β-imino ketone complexes of nickel(II), copper(II), and palladium(II), with nitrosating reagents has been investigated. The chemical analysis and spectroscopic results reveal that one of the α-CH groups of the coordinated lignad undergoes selective nitrosation forming mono(hydroxyimino) derivative. The hydroxyimino group introduced coordinates through either N- or O- atom to metal(II) by dislodging the carbonyl group already coordinated. This gives rise to two linkage isomers, one with N-bonded and the other with O-bonded hydroxyimino group in the case of nickel(II) (except for 1d) and palladium(II), and a single isomer with O-bonded hydroxyimino group in copper(II) complexes. The isomers obtained from 1b and 1i have been separated by column chromatography. In chloroform each of the isomers of nickel(II) isomerizes to give an equilibrium mixture of two isomers, but not those of copper(II) and palladium(II).