964 resultados para Policy Modelling
Resumo:
Controlled drug delivery is a key topic in modern pharmacotherapy, where controlled drug delivery devices are required to prolong the period of release, maintain a constant release rate, or release the drug with a predetermined release profile. In the pharmaceutical industry, the development process of a controlled drug delivery device may be facilitated enormously by the mathematical modelling of drug release mechanisms, directly decreasing the number of necessary experiments. Such mathematical modelling is difficult because several mechanisms are involved during the drug release process. The main drug release mechanisms of a controlled release device are based on the device’s physiochemical properties, and include diffusion, swelling and erosion. In this thesis, four controlled drug delivery models are investigated. These four models selectively involve the solvent penetration into the polymeric device, the swelling of the polymer, the polymer erosion and the drug diffusion out of the device but all share two common key features. The first is that the solvent penetration into the polymer causes the transition of the polymer from a glassy state into a rubbery state. The interface between the two states of the polymer is modelled as a moving boundary and the speed of this interface is governed by a kinetic law. The second feature is that drug diffusion only happens in the rubbery region of the polymer, with a nonlinear diffusion coefficient which is dependent on the concentration of solvent. These models are analysed by using both formal asymptotics and numerical computation, where front-fixing methods and the method of lines with finite difference approximations are used to solve these models numerically. This numerical scheme is conservative, accurate and easily implemented to the moving boundary problems and is thoroughly explained in Section 3.2. From the small time asymptotic analysis in Sections 5.3.1, 6.3.1 and 7.2.1, these models exhibit the non-Fickian behaviour referred to as Case II diffusion, and an initial constant rate of drug release which is appealing to the pharmaceutical industry because this indicates zeroorder release. The numerical results of the models qualitatively confirms the experimental behaviour identified in the literature. The knowledge obtained from investigating these models can help to develop more complex multi-layered drug delivery devices in order to achieve sophisticated drug release profiles. A multi-layer matrix tablet, which consists of a number of polymer layers designed to provide sustainable and constant drug release or bimodal drug release, is also discussed in this research. The moving boundary problem describing the solvent penetration into the polymer also arises in melting and freezing problems which have been modelled as the classical onephase Stefan problem. The classical one-phase Stefan problem has unrealistic singularities existed in the problem at the complete melting time. Hence we investigate the effect of including the kinetic undercooling to the melting problem and this problem is called the one-phase Stefan problem with kinetic undercooling. Interestingly we discover the unrealistic singularities existed in the classical one-phase Stefan problem at the complete melting time are regularised and also find out the small time behaviour of the one-phase Stefan problem with kinetic undercooling is different to the classical one-phase Stefan problem from the small time asymptotic analysis in Section 3.3. In the case of melting very small particles, it is known that surface tension effects are important. The effect of including the surface tension to the melting problem for nanoparticles (no kinetic undercooling) has been investigated in the past, however the one-phase Stefan problem with surface tension exhibits finite-time blow-up. Therefore we investigate the effect of including both the surface tension and kinetic undercooling to the melting problem for nanoparticles and find out the the solution continues to exist until complete melting. The investigation of including kinetic undercooling and surface tension to the melting problems reveals more insight into the regularisations of unphysical singularities in the classical one-phase Stefan problem. This investigation gives a better understanding of melting a particle, and contributes to the current body of knowledge related to melting and freezing due to heat conduction.
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Stigmergy is a biological term originally used when discussing insect or swarm behaviour, and describes a model supporting environment-based communication separating artefacts from agents. This phenomenon is demonstrated in the behavior of ants and their food foraging supported by pheromone trails, or similarly termites and their termite nest building process. What is interesting with this mechanism is that highly organized societies are formed without an apparent central management function. We see design features in Web sites that mimic stigmergic mechanisms as part of the User Interface and we have created generalizations of these patterns. Software development and Web site development techniques have evolved significantly over the past 20 years. Recent progress in this area proposes languages to model web applications to facilitate the nuances specific to these developments. These modeling languages provide a suitable framework for building reusable components encapsulating our design patterns of stigmergy. We hypothesize that incorporating stigmergy as a separate feature of a site’s primary function will ultimately lead to enhanced user coordination.
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Light Gauge Steel Framing (LSF) walls are made of cold-formed, thin-walled steel lipped channel studs with plasterboard linings on both sides. However, these thin-walled steel sections heat up quickly and lose their strength under fire conditions despite the protection provided by plasterboards. A new composite wall panel was recently proposed to improve the fire resistance rating of LSF walls, where an insulation layer was used externally between the plasterboards on both sides of the wall frame instead of using it in the cavity. A research study using both fire tests and numerical studies was undertaken to investigate the structural and thermal behaviour of load bearing LSF walls made of both conventional and the new composite panels under standard fire conditions and to determine their fire resistance rating. This paper presents the details of finite element models of LSF wall studs developed to simulate the structural performance of LSF wall panels under standard fire conditions. Finite element analyses were conducted under both steady and transient state conditions using the time-temperature profiles measured during the fire tests. The developed models were validated using the fire test results of 11 LSF wall panels with various plasterboard/insulation configurations and load ratios. They were able to predict the fire resistance rating within five minutes. The use of accurate numerical models allowed the inclusion of various complex structural and thermal effects such as local buckling, thermal bowing and neutral axis shift that occurred in thin-walled steel studs under non-uniform elevated temperature conditions. Finite element analyses also demonstrated the improvements offered by the new composite panel system over the conventional cavity insulated system.
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Deterministic computer simulation of physical experiments is now a common technique in science and engineering. Often, physical experiments are too time consuming, expensive or impossible to conduct. Complex computer models or codes, rather than physical experiments lead to the study of computer experiments, which are used to investigate many scientific phenomena. A computer experiment consists of a number of runs of the computer code with different input choices. The Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments is a rapidly growing technique in statistical experimental design. This paper aims to discuss some practical issues when designing a computer simulation and/or experiments for manufacturing systems. A case study approach is reviewed and presented.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether new and young firms are different from older firms. This analysis is undertaken to explore general characteristics, use of external resources and growth orientation. Design/methodology/approach – Data from the 2008 UK Federation of Small Businesses survey provided 8,000 responses. Quantitative analysis identified significantly different characteristics of firms from 0-4, 4-9, 9-19 and 20+ years. Factor analysis was utilised to identify the advice sets, finance and public procurement customers of greatest interest, with ANOVA used to statistically compare firms in the identified age groups with different growth aspirations. Findings – The findings reveal key differences between new, young and older firms in terms of characteristics including business sector, owner/manager age, education/business experience, legal status, intellectual property and trading performance. New and young firms were more able to access beneficial resources in terms of finance and advice from several sources. New and young firms were also able to more easily access government and external finance, as well as government advice, but less able to access public procurement. Research limitations/implications – New and young firms are utilising external networks to access several resources for development purposes, and this differs for older firms. This suggests that a more explicit age-differentiated focus is required for government policies aimed at supporting firm growth. Originality/value – The study provides important baseline data for future quantitative and qualitative studies focused on the impact of firm age and government policy.
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LiFePO4 is a commercially available battery material with good theoretical discharge capacity, excellent cycle life and increased safety compared with competing Li-ion chemistries. It has been the focus of considerable experimental and theoretical scrutiny in the past decade, resulting in LiFePO4 cathodes that perform well at high discharge rates. This scrutiny has raised several questions about the behaviour of LiFePO4 material during charge and discharge. In contrast to many other battery chemistries that intercalate homogeneously, LiFePO4 can phase-separate into highly and lowly lithiated phases, with intercalation proceeding by advancing an interface between these two phases. The main objective of this thesis is to construct mathematical models of LiFePO4 cathodes that can be validated against experimental discharge curves. This is in an attempt to understand some of the multi-scale dynamics of LiFePO4 cathodes that can be difficult to determine experimentally. The first section of this thesis constructs a three-scale mathematical model of LiFePO4 cathodes that uses a simple Stefan problem (which has been used previously in the literature) to describe the assumed phase-change. LiFePO4 crystals have been observed agglomerating in cathodes to form a porous collection of crystals and this morphology motivates the use of three size-scales in the model. The multi-scale model developed validates well against experimental data and this validated model is then used to examine the role of manufacturing parameters (including the agglomerate radius) on battery performance. The remainder of the thesis is concerned with investigating phase-field models as a replacement for the aforementioned Stefan problem. Phase-field models have recently been used in LiFePO4 and are a far more accurate representation of experimentally observed crystal-scale behaviour. They are based around the Cahn-Hilliard-reaction (CHR) IBVP, a fourth-order PDE with electrochemical (flux) boundary conditions that is very stiff and possesses multiple time and space scales. Numerical solutions to the CHR IBVP can be difficult to compute and hence a least-squares based Finite Volume Method (FVM) is developed for discretising both the full CHR IBVP and the more traditional Cahn-Hilliard IBVP. Phase-field models are subject to two main physicality constraints and the numerical scheme presented performs well under these constraints. This least-squares based FVM is then used to simulate the discharge of individual crystals of LiFePO4 in two dimensions. This discharge is subject to isotropic Li+ diffusion, based on experimental evidence that suggests the normally orthotropic transport of Li+ in LiFePO4 may become more isotropic in the presence of lattice defects. Numerical investigation shows that two-dimensional Li+ transport results in crystals that phase-separate, even at very high discharge rates. This is very different from results shown in the literature, where phase-separation in LiFePO4 crystals is suppressed during discharge with orthotropic Li+ transport. Finally, the three-scale cathodic model used at the beginning of the thesis is modified to simulate modern, high-rate LiFePO4 cathodes. High-rate cathodes typically do not contain (large) agglomerates and therefore a two-scale model is developed. The Stefan problem used previously is also replaced with the phase-field models examined in earlier chapters. The results from this model are then compared with experimental data and fit poorly, though a significant parameter regime could not be investigated numerically. Many-particle effects however, are evident in the simulated discharges, which match the conclusions of recent literature. These effects result in crystals that are subject to local currents very different from the discharge rate applied to the cathode, which impacts the phase-separating behaviour of the crystals and raises questions about the validity of using cathodic-scale experimental measurements in order to determine crystal-scale behaviour.
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This thesis used Critical Discourse Analysis to investigate how a government policy and the newsprint media constructed discussion about young people’s participation in education or employment. The study found that a continuous narrative across both sites about government as a noble agent taking action to redress the social disruption caused by young people’s disengagement. Unlike the education policy, the newsprint media blamed young people who were disengaged and failed to recognise the barriers they often face. The study points to possibilities for utilising the power of narrative to build a more fair and rigorous discussion of issues in the public sphere.
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Land use planning within and surrounding privatised Australian capital city airports is a fragmented process as a result of: current legislative and policy frameworks; competing stakeholder priorities and interests; and inadequate coordination and disjointed decision-making. Three Australian case studies are examined to detail the context of airport and regional land use planning. Stakeholder Land Use Forums within each case study have served to inform the procedural dynamics and relationships between airport and regional land use decision-making. This article identifies significant themes and stakeholder perspectives regarding on-airport development and broader urban land use policy and planning. First, it outlines the concept of the “airport city” and examines the model of airport and regional “interfaces.” Then, it details the policy context that differentiates on-airport land use planning from planning within the surrounding region. The article then analyses the results of the Land Use Forums identifying key themes within the shared and reciprocal interfaces of governance, environment, economic development and infrastructure. The article concludes by detailing the implications of this research to broader urban planning and highlights the core issues contributing to the fragmentation of airport and regional land use planning policy.
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The purpose of this paper is to identify goal conflicts – both actual and potential – between climate and social policies in government strategies in response to the growing significance of climate change as a socioecological issue (IPCC 2007). Both social and climate policies are political responses to long-term societal trends related to capitalist development, industrialisation, and urbanisation (Koch, 2012). Both modify these processes through regulation, fiscal transfers and other measures, thereby affecting conditions for the other. This means that there are fields of tensions and synergies between social policy and climate change policy. Exploring these tensions and synergies is an increasingly important task for navigating genuinely sustainable development. Gough et al (2008) highlight three potential synergies between social and climate change policies: First, income redistribution – a traditional concern of social policy – can facilitate use of and enhance efficiency of carbon pricing. A second area of synergy is housing, transport, urban policies and community development, which all have potential to crucially contribute towards reducing carbon emissions. Finally, climate change mitigation will require substantial and rapid shifts in producer and consumer behaviour. Land use planning policy is a critical bridge between climate change and social policy that provides a means to explore the tensions and synergies that are evolving within this context. This paper will focus on spatial planning as an opportunity to develop strategies to adapt to climate change, and reviews the challenges of such change. Land use and spatial planning involve the allocation of land and the design and control of spatial patterns. Spatial planning is identified as being one of the most effective means of adapting settlements in response to climate change (Hurlimann and March, 2012). It provides the instrumental framework for adaptation (Meyer, et al., 2010) and operates as both a mechanism to achieve adaptation and a forum to negotiate priorities surrounding adaptation (Davoudi, et al., 2009). The acknowledged role of spatial planning in adaptation however has not translated into comparably significant consideration in planning literature (Davoudi, et al., 2009; Hurlimann and March, 2012). The discourse on adaptation specifically through spatial planning is described as ‘missing’ and ‘subordinate’ in national adaptation plans (Greiving and Fleischhauer, 2012),‘underrepresented’ (Roggema, et al., 2012)and ‘limited and disparate’ in planning literature (Davoudi, et al., 2009). Hurlimann and March (2012) suggest this may be due to limited experiences of adaptation in developed nations while Roggema et al. (2012) and Crane and Landis (2010) suggest it is because climate change is a wicked problem involving an unfamiliar problem, various frames of understanding and uncertain solutions. The potential for goal conflicts within this policy forum seem to outweigh the synergies. Yet, spatial planning will be a critical policy tool in the future to both protect and adapt communities to climate change.
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This thesis reports on an investigation to develop an advanced and comprehensive milling process model of the raw sugar factory. Although the new model can be applied to both, the four-roller and six-roller milling units, it is primarily developed for the six-roller mills which are widely used in the Australian sugar industry. The approach taken was to gain an understanding of the previous milling process simulation model "MILSIM" developed at the University of Queensland nearly four decades ago. Although the MILSIM model was widely adopted in the Australian sugar industry for simulating the milling process it did have some incorrect assumptions. The study aimed to eliminate all the incorrect assumptions of the previous model and develop an advanced model that represents the milling process correctly and tracks the flow of other cane components in the milling process which have not been considered in the previous models. The development of the milling process model was done is three stages. Firstly, an enhanced milling unit extraction model (MILEX) was developed to access the mill performance parameters and predict the extraction performance of the milling process. New definitions for the milling performance parameters were developed and a complete milling train along with the juice screen was modelled. The MILEX model was validated with factory data and the variation in the mill performance parameters was observed and studied. Some case studies were undertaken to study the effect of fibre in juice streams, juice in cush return and imbibition% fibre on extraction performance of the milling process. It was concluded from the study that the empirical relations developed for the mill performance parameters in the MILSIM model were not applicable to the new model. New empirical relations have to be developed before the model is applied with confidence. Secondly, a soluble and insoluble solids model was developed using modelling theory and experimental data to track the flow of sucrose (pol), reducing sugars (glucose and fructose), soluble ash, true fibre and mud solids entering the milling train through the cane supply and their distribution in juice and bagasse streams.. The soluble impurities and mud solids in cane affect the performance of the milling train and further processing of juice and bagasse. New mill performance parameters were developed in the model to track the flow of cane components. The developed model is the first of its kind and provides some additional insight regarding the flow of soluble and insoluble cane components and the factors affecting their distribution in juice and bagasse. The model proved to be a good extension to the MILEX model to study the overall performance of the milling train. Thirdly, the developed models were incorporated in a proprietary software package "SysCAD’ for advanced operational efficiency and for availability in the ‘whole of factory’ model. The MILEX model was developed in SysCAD software to represent a single milling unit. Eventually the entire milling train and the juice screen were developed in SysCAD using series of different controllers and features of the software. The models developed in SysCAD can be run from macro enabled excel file and reports can be generated in excel sheets. The flexibility of the software, ease of use and other advantages are described broadly in the relevant chapter. The MILEX model is developed in static mode and dynamic mode. The application of the dynamic mode of the model is still under progress.
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The invited presentation was delivered at Queensland Department of Main Roads, Brisbane Australia, 17th June 2013
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Vehicle speed is an important attribute for the utility of a transport mode. The speed relationship between multiple modes of transport is of interest to the traffic planners and operators. This paper quantifies the relationship between bus speed and average car speed by integrating Bluetooth data and Transit Signal Priority data from the urban network in Brisbane, Australia. The method proposed in this paper is the first of its kind to relate bus speed and average car speed by integrating multi-source traffic data in a corridor-based method. Three transferable regression models relating not-in-service bus; in-service bus during peak; and in-service bus during off peak periods with average car are proposed. The models are cross-validated and the interrelationships are significant
Resumo:
Denial-of-service (DoS) attacks are a growing concern to networked services like the Internet. In recent years, major Internet e-commerce and government sites have been disabled due to various DoS attacks. A common form of DoS attack is a resource depletion attack, in which an attacker tries to overload the server's resources, such as memory or computational power, rendering the server unable to service honest clients. A promising way to deal with this problem is for a defending server to identify and segregate malicious traffic as earlier as possible. Client puzzles, also known as proofs of work, have been shown to be a promising tool to thwart DoS attacks in network protocols, particularly in authentication protocols. In this thesis, we design efficient client puzzles and propose a stronger security model to analyse client puzzles. We revisit a few key establishment protocols to analyse their DoS resilient properties and strengthen them using existing and novel techniques. Our contributions in the thesis are manifold. We propose an efficient client puzzle that enjoys its security in the standard model under new computational assumptions. Assuming the presence of powerful DoS attackers, we find a weakness in the most recent security model proposed to analyse client puzzles and this study leads us to introduce a better security model for analysing client puzzles. We demonstrate the utility of our new security definitions by including two hash based stronger client puzzles. We also show that using stronger client puzzles any protocol can be converted into a provably secure DoS resilient key exchange protocol. In other contributions, we analyse DoS resilient properties of network protocols such as Just Fast Keying (JFK) and Transport Layer Security (TLS). In the JFK protocol, we identify a new DoS attack by applying Meadows' cost based framework to analyse DoS resilient properties. We also prove that the original security claim of JFK does not hold. Then we combine an existing technique to reduce the server cost and prove that the new variant of JFK achieves perfect forward secrecy (the property not achieved by original JFK protocol) and secure under the original security assumptions of JFK. Finally, we introduce a novel cost shifting technique which reduces the computation cost of the server significantly and employ the technique in the most important network protocol, TLS, to analyse the security of the resultant protocol. We also observe that the cost shifting technique can be incorporated in any Diffine{Hellman based key exchange protocol to reduce the Diffie{Hellman exponential cost of a party by one multiplication and one addition.
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The objective of this PhD research program is to investigate numerical methods for simulating variably-saturated flow and sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers in a high-performance computing environment. The work is divided into three overlapping tasks: to develop an accurate and stable finite volume discretisation and numerical solution strategy for the variably-saturated flow and salt transport equations; to implement the chosen approach in a high performance computing environment that may have multiple GPUs or CPU cores; and to verify and test the implementation. The geological description of aquifers is often complex, with porous materials possessing highly variable properties, that are best described using unstructured meshes. The finite volume method is a popular method for the solution of the conservation laws that describe sea water intrusion, and is well-suited to unstructured meshes. In this work we apply a control volume-finite element (CV-FE) method to an extension of a recently proposed formulation (Kees and Miller, 2002) for variably saturated groundwater flow. The CV-FE method evaluates fluxes at points where material properties and gradients in pressure and concentration are consistently defined, making it both suitable for heterogeneous media and mass conservative. Using the method of lines, the CV-FE discretisation gives a set of differential algebraic equations (DAEs) amenable to solution using higher-order implicit solvers. Heterogeneous computer systems that use a combination of computational hardware such as CPUs and GPUs, are attractive for scientific computing due to the potential advantages offered by GPUs for accelerating data-parallel operations. We present a C++ library that implements data-parallel methods on both CPU and GPUs. The finite volume discretisation is expressed in terms of these data-parallel operations, which gives an efficient implementation of the nonlinear residual function. This makes the implicit solution of the DAE system possible on the GPU, because the inexact Newton-Krylov method used by the implicit time stepping scheme can approximate the action of a matrix on a vector using residual evaluations. We also propose preconditioning strategies that are amenable to GPU implementation, so that all computationally-intensive aspects of the implicit time stepping scheme are implemented on the GPU. Results are presented that demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed numeric methods and formulation. The formulation offers excellent conservation of mass, and higher-order temporal integration increases both numeric efficiency and accuracy of the solutions. Flux limiting produces accurate, oscillation-free solutions on coarse meshes, where much finer meshes are required to obtain solutions with equivalent accuracy using upstream weighting. The computational efficiency of the software is investigated using CPUs and GPUs on a high-performance workstation. The GPU version offers considerable speedup over the CPU version, with one GPU giving speedup factor of 3 over the eight-core CPU implementation.
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The rapid growth of visual information on Web has led to immense interest in multimedia information retrieval (MIR). While advancement in MIR systems has achieved some success in specific domains, particularly the content-based approaches, general Web users still struggle to find the images they want. Despite the success in content-based object recognition or concept extraction, the major problem in current Web image searching remains in the querying process. Since most online users only express their needs in semantic terms or objects, systems that utilize visual features (e.g., color or texture) to search images create a semantic gap which hinders general users from fully expressing their needs. In addition, query-by-example (QBE) retrieval imposes extra obstacles for exploratory search because users may not always have the representative image at hand or in mind when starting a search (i.e. the page zero problem). As a result, the majority of current online image search engines (e.g., Google, Yahoo, and Flickr) still primarily use textual queries to search. The problem with query-based retrieval systems is that they only capture users’ information need in terms of formal queries;; the implicit and abstract parts of users’ information needs are inevitably overlooked. Hence, users often struggle to formulate queries that best represent their needs, and some compromises have to be made. Studies of Web search logs suggest that multimedia searches are more difficult than textual Web searches, and Web image searching is the most difficult compared to video or audio searches. Hence, online users need to put in more effort when searching multimedia contents, especially for image searches. Most interactions in Web image searching occur during query reformulation. While log analysis provides intriguing views on how the majority of users search, their search needs or motivations are ultimately neglected. User studies on image searching have attempted to understand users’ search contexts in terms of users’ background (e.g., knowledge, profession, motivation for search and task types) and the search outcomes (e.g., use of retrieved images, search performance). However, these studies typically focused on particular domains with a selective group of professional users. General users’ Web image searching contexts and behaviors are little understood although they represent the majority of online image searching activities nowadays. We argue that only by understanding Web image users’ contexts can the current Web search engines further improve their usefulness and provide more efficient searches. In order to understand users’ search contexts, a user study was conducted based on university students’ Web image searching in News, Travel, and commercial Product domains. The three search domains were deliberately chosen to reflect image users’ interests in people, time, event, location, and objects. We investigated participants’ Web image searching behavior, with the focus on query reformulation and search strategies. Participants’ search contexts such as their search background, motivation for search, and search outcomes were gathered by questionnaires. The searching activity was recorded with participants’ think aloud data for analyzing significant search patterns. The relationships between participants’ search contexts and corresponding search strategies were discovered by Grounded Theory approach. Our key findings include the following aspects: - Effects of users' interactive intents on query reformulation patterns and search strategies - Effects of task domain on task specificity and task difficulty, as well as on some specific searching behaviors - Effects of searching experience on result expansion strategies A contextual image searching model was constructed based on these findings. The model helped us understand Web image searching from user perspective, and introduced a context-aware searching paradigm for current retrieval systems. A query recommendation tool was also developed to demonstrate how users’ query reformulation contexts can potentially contribute to more efficient searching.
