Improved Criteria for Estimating Calibration Factors for Highway Safety Manual (HSM) Applications

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) estimates roadway safety performance based on predictive models that were calibrated using national data. Calibration factors are then used to adjust these predictive models to local conditions for local applications. The HSM recommends that local calibration factors be estimated using 30 to 50 randomly selected sites that experienced at least a total of 100 crashes per year. It also recommends that the factors be updated every two to three years, preferably on an annual basis. However, these recommendations are primarily based on expert opinions rather than data-driven research findings. Furthermore, most agencies do not have data for many of the input variables recommended in the HSM. This dissertation is aimed at determining the best way to meet three major data needs affecting the estimation of calibration factors: (1) the required minimum sample sizes for different roadway facilities, (2) the required frequency for calibration factor updates, and (3) the influential variables affecting calibration factors. In this dissertation, statewide segment and intersection data were first collected for most of the HSM recommended calibration variables using a Google Maps application. In addition, eight years (2005-2012) of traffic and crash data were retrieved from existing databases from the Florida Department of Transportation. With these data, the effect of sample size criterion on calibration factor estimates was first studied using a sensitivity analysis. The results showed that the minimum sample sizes not only vary across different roadway facilities, but they are also significantly higher than those recommended in the HSM. In addition, results from paired sample t-tests showed that calibration factors in Florida need to be updated annually. To identify influential variables affecting the calibration factors for roadway segments, the variables were prioritized by combining the results from three different methods: negative binomial regression, random forests, and boosted regression trees. Only a few variables were found to explain most of the variation in the crash data. Traffic volume was consistently found to be the most influential. In addition, roadside object density, major and minor commercial driveway densities, and minor residential driveway density were also identified as influential variables.

Concentrations of floating plastic debris in northwestern Mediterranean Sea measured in summer 2013 during Expeditions MED cruise

Floating plastic debris sampled in surface waters of northwestern Mediterranean Sea during summer 2013. Geographical coordinates and dates of sampling are available in the dataset.

Integrated sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty propagation analysis approaches for supporting hydrological modeling

The successful performance of a hydrological model is usually challenged by the quality of the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis carried out in the modeling exercise and subsequent simulation results. This is especially important under changing climatic conditions where there are more uncertainties associated with climate models and downscaling processes that increase the complexities of the hydrological modeling system. In response to these challenges and to improve the performance of the hydrological models under changing climatic conditions, this research proposed five new methods for supporting hydrological modeling. First, a design of experiment aided sensitivity analysis and parameterization (DOE-SAP) method was proposed to investigate the significant parameters and provide more reliable sensitivity analysis for improving parameterization during hydrological modeling. The better calibration results along with the advanced sensitivity analysis for significant parameters and their interactions were achieved in the case study. Second, a comprehensive uncertainty evaluation scheme was developed to evaluate three uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Parameter solution (ParaSol) methods. The results showed that the SUFI-2 performed better than the other two methods based on calibration and uncertainty analysis results. The proposed evaluation scheme demonstrated that it is capable of selecting the most suitable uncertainty method for case studies. Third, a novel sequential multi-criteria based calibration and uncertainty analysis (SMC-CUA) method was proposed to improve the efficiency of calibration and uncertainty analysis and control the phenomenon of equifinality. The results showed that the SMC-CUA method was able to provide better uncertainty analysis results with high computational efficiency compared to the SUFI-2 and GLUE methods and control parameter uncertainty and the equifinality effect without sacrificing simulation performance. Fourth, an innovative response based statistical evaluation method (RESEM) was proposed for estimating the uncertainty propagated effects and providing long-term prediction for hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions. By using RESEM, the uncertainty propagated from statistical downscaling to hydrological modeling can be evaluated. Fifth, an integrated simulation-based evaluation system for uncertainty propagation analysis (ISES-UPA) was proposed for investigating the effects and contributions of different uncertainty components to the total propagated uncertainty from statistical downscaling. Using ISES-UPA, the uncertainty from statistical downscaling, uncertainty from hydrological modeling, and the total uncertainty from two uncertainty sources can be compared and quantified. The feasibility of all the methods has been tested using hypothetical and real-world case studies. The proposed methods can also be integrated as a hydrological modeling system to better support hydrological studies under changing climatic conditions. The results from the proposed integrated hydrological modeling system can be used as scientific references for decision makers to reduce the potential risk of damages caused by extreme events for long-term water resource management and planning.

Study of the calibration method of pressure-velocity probes and its application in a field of progressive plane waves

This dissertation presents a calibration procedure for a pressure velocity probe. The dissertation is divided into four main chapters. The first chapter is divided into six main sections. In the firsts two, the wave equation in fluids and the velocity of sound in gases are calculated, the third section contains a general solution of the wave equation in the case of plane acoustic waves. Section four and five report the definition of the acoustic impedance and admittance, and the practical units the sound level is measured with, i.e. the decibel scale. Finally, the last section of the chapter is about the theory linked to the frequency analysis of a sound wave and includes the analysis of sound in bands and the discrete Fourier analysis, with the definition of some important functions. The second chapter describes different reference field calibration procedures that are used to calibrate the P-V probes, between them the progressive plane wave method, which is that has been used in this work. Finally, the last section of the chapter contains a description of the working principles of the two transducers that have been used, with a focus on the velocity one. The third chapter of the dissertation is devoted to the explanation of the calibration set up and the instruments used for the data acquisition and analysis. Since software routines were extremely important, this chapter includes a dedicated section on them and the proprietary routines most used are thoroughly explained. Finally, there is the description of the work that has been done, which is identified with three different phases, where the data acquired and the results obtained are presented. All the graphs and data reported were obtained through the Matlab® routine. As for the last chapter, it briefly presents all the work that has been done as well as an excursus on a new probe and on the way the procedure implemented in this dissertation could be applied in the case of a general field.

Absolute calibration and characterization of the multiband imaging photometer for Spitzer. I. The stellar calibrator sample and the 24 μm calibration

We present the stellar calibrator sample and the conversion from instrumental to physical units for the 24 μm channel of the Multiband Imaging Photometer for Spitzer (MIPS). The primary calibrators are A stars, and the calibration factor based on those stars is 4.54 × 10^-2 MJy sr^–1 (DN/s)^–1, with a nominal uncertainty of 2%. We discuss the data reduction procedures required to attain this accuracy; without these procedures, the calibration factor obtained using the automated pipeline at the Spitzer Science Center is 1.6% ± 0.6% lower. We extend this work to predict 24 μm flux densities for a sample of 238 stars that covers a larger range of flux densities and spectral types. We present a total of 348 measurements of 141 stars at 24 μm. This sample covers a factor of ~460 in 24 μm flux density, from 8.6 mJy up to 4.0 Jy. We show that the calibration is linear over that range with respect to target flux and background level. The calibration is based on observations made using 3 s exposures; a preliminary analysis shows that the calibration factor may be 1% and 2% lower for 10 and 30 s exposures, respectively. We also demonstrate that the calibration is very stable: over the course of the mission, repeated measurements of our routine calibrator, HD 159330, show a rms scatter of only 0.4%. Finally, we show that the point-spread function (PSF) is well measured and allows us to calibrate extended sources accurately; Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) and MIPS measurements of a sample of nearby galaxies are identical within the uncertainties.

Finite element model calibration of an instrumented RC building based on seismic excitation including non-structural components and soil-structure- interaction

Peer reviewed

A Comparison of Anchor-Item Designs for the Concurrent Calibration of Large Banks of Likert-Type Items

Current interest in measuring quality of life is generating interest in the construction of computerized adaptive tests (CATs) with Likert-type items. Calibration of an item bank for use in CAT requires collecting responses to a large number of candidate items. However, the number is usually too large to administer to each subject in the calibration sample. The concurrent anchor-item design solves this problem by splitting the items into separate subtests, with some common items across subtests; then administering each subtest to a different sample; and finally running estimation algorithms once on the aggregated data array, from which a substantial number of responses are then missing. Although the use of anchor-item designs is widespread, the consequences of several configuration decisions on the accuracy of parameter estimates have never been studied in the polytomous case. The present study addresses this question by simulation, comparing the outcomes of several alternatives on the configuration of the anchor-item design. The factors defining variants of the anchor-item design are (a) subtest size, (b) balance of common and unique items per subtest, (c) characteristics of the common items, and (d) criteria for the distribution of unique items across subtests. The results of this study indicate that maximizing accuracy in item parameter recovery requires subtests of the largest possible number of items and the smallest possible number of common items; the characteristics of the common items and the criterion for distribution of unique items do not affect accuracy.

Stochastically forced dislocation density distribution in plastic deformation

The dynamical evolution of dislocations in plastically deformed metals is controlled by both deterministic factors arising out of applied loads and stochastic effects appearing due to fluctuations of internal stress. Such type of stochastic dislocation processes and the associated spatially inhomogeneous modes lead to randomness in the observed deformation structure. Previous studies have analyzed the role of randomness in such textural evolution but none of these models have considered the impact of a finite decay time (all previous models assumed instantaneous relaxation which is "unphysical") of the stochastic perturbations in the overall dynamics of the system. The present article bridges this knowledge gap by introducing a colored noise in the form of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise in the analysis of a class of linear and nonlinear Wiener and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes that these structural dislocation dynamics could be mapped on to. Based on an analysis of the relevant Fokker-Planck model, our results show that linear Wiener processes remain unaffected by the second time scale in the problem but all nonlinear processes, both Wiener type and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type, scale as a function of the noise decay time τ. The results are expected to ramify existing experimental observations and inspire new numerical and laboratory tests to gain further insight into the competition between deterministic and random effects in modeling plastically deformed samples.

You and I: The Effects of Intra- and Inter-Species Interactions on Microbial Biofilms, Growth, and Morphology

Humanity is shaped by its relationships with microbes. From bacterial infections to the production of biofuels, industry and health often hinge on our control of microbial populations. Understanding the physiological and genetic basis of their behaviors is therefore of the highest importance. To this end I have investigated the genetic basis of plastic adhesion in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, the mechanistic and evolutionary dynamics of mixed species biofilms with Escherichia coli and S. cerevisiae, and the induction of filamentation in E. coli. Using a bulk segregant analysis on experimentally evolved populations, I detected 28 genes that are likely to mediate plastic adhesion in S. cerevisiae. With a variety of imaging and culture manipulation techniques, I found that particular strains of E. coli are capable of inducing flocculation and macroscopic biofilm formation via coaggregation with yeast. I also employed experimental evolution and microbial demography techniques to find that selection for mixed species biofilm association leads to lower fecundity in S. cerevisiae. Using culture manipulation and imaging techniques, I also found that E. coli are capable of inducing a filamentous phenotype with a secreted signal that has many of the qualities of a quorum sensing molecule.

Sea-surface temperature reconstruction and calibration-function of sediment cores from the Southern Ocean

We provide a new multivariate calibration-function based on South Atlantic modern assemblages of planktonic foraminifera and atlas water column parameters from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to the Subtropical Gyre and tropical warm waters (i.e., 60°S to 0°S). Therefore, we used a dataset with the abundance pattern of 35 taxonomic groups of planktonic foraminifera in 141 surface sediment samples. Five factors were taken into consideration for the analysis, which account for 93% of the total variance of the original data representing the regional main oceanographic fronts. The new calibration-function F141-35-5 enables the reconstruction of Late Quaternary summer and winter sea-surface temperatures with a statistical error of ~0.5°C. Our function was verified by its application to a sediment core extracted from the western South Atlantic. The downcore reconstruction shows negative anomalies in sea-surface temperatures during the early-mid Holocene and temperatures within the range of modern values during the late Holocene. This pattern is consistent with available reconstructions.

Stress Inversion Using LiDAR Tunnel Deformation Measurements

Far-field stresses are those present in a volume of rock prior to excavations being created. Estimates of the orientation and magnitude of far-field stresses, often used in mine design, are generally obtained by single-point measurements of stress, or large-scale, regional trends. Point measurements can be a poor representation of far-field stresses as a result of excavation-induced stresses and geological structures. For these reasons, far-field stress estimates can be associated with high levels of uncertainty. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the practical feasibility, applications, and limitations of calibrating far-field stress estimates through tunnel deformation measurements captured using LiDAR imaging. A method that estimates the orientation and magnitude of excavation-induced principal stress changes through back-analysis of deformation measurements from LiDAR imaged tunnels was developed and tested using synthetic data. If excavation-induced stress change orientations and magnitudes can be accurately estimated, they can be used in the calibration of far-field stress input to numerical models. LiDAR point clouds have been proven to have a number of underground applications, thus it is desired to explore their use in numerical model calibration. The back-analysis method is founded on the superposition of stresses and requires a two-dimensional numerical model of the deforming tunnel. Principal stress changes of known orientation and magnitude are applied to the model to create calibration curves. Estimation can then be performed by minimizing squared differences between the measured tunnel and sets of calibration curve deformations. In addition to the back-analysis estimation method, a procedure consisting of previously existing techniques to measure tunnel deformation using LiDAR imaging was documented. Under ideal conditions, the back-analysis method estimated principal stress change orientations within ±5° and magnitudes within ±2 MPa. Results were comparable for four different tunnel profile shapes. Preliminary testing using plastic deformation, a rough tunnel profile, and profile occlusions suggests that the method can work under more realistic conditions. The results from this thesis set the groundwork for the continued development of a new, inexpensive, and efficient far-field stress estimate calibration method.

Polymer Process Partitioning: Extruding Plastic Pipe

When plastic pipe is solidified, it proceeds through a long cooling chamber. Inside this chamber, inside the hollow extrudate, the plastic is molten, and this inner surface solidifies last. Sag, the flow due to the self-weight of the molten plastic, then happens in this cooling chamber, and sometimes, thickened regions (called knuckles) arise in the lower quadrants, especially of large diameter thickwalled pipes. To compensate for sag, engineers normally shift the die centerpiece downward. This thesis focuses on the consequences of this decentering. Specifically, when the molten polymer is viscoelastic, as is normally the case, a downward lateral force is exerted on the mandrel. Die eccentricity also affects the downstream axial force on the mandrel. These forces govern how rigidly the mandrel must be attached (normally, on a spider die). We attack this flow problem in eccentric cylindrical coordinates, using the Oldroyd 8-constant constitutive model framework. Specifically, we revise the method of Jones (1964), called polymer process partitioning. We estimate both axial and lateral forces. We develop a corresponding map to help plastics engineers predict the extrudate shape, including extrudate knuckles. From the mass balance over the postdie region, we then predict the shape of the extrudate entering the cooling chamber. We further include expressions for the stresses in the extruded polymer melt. We include detailed dimensional worked examples to show process engineers how to use our results to design pipe dies, and especially to suppress extrudate knuckling.

THE MICROSTRUCTURES OF ZR-EXCEL ALLOY: EFFECTS OF HEAVY ION IRRADIATION, PLASTIC DEFORMATION, THERMAL TREATMENT AND IN-SITU HEATING

Zr-Excel alloy (Zr-3.5Sn-0.8Nb-0.8Mo) is a dual phase (α + β) alloy in the as-received pressure tube condition. It has been proposed to be the pressure tube candidate material for the Generation-IV CANDU-Supercritical Water Reactor (CANDU-SCWR). In this dissertation, the effects of heavy ion irradiation, deformation and heat treatment on the microstructures of the alloy were investigated to enable us to have a better understanding of the potential in-reactor performance of this alloy. In-situ heavy ion (1 MeV) irradiation was performed to study the nucleation and evolution of dislocation loops in both α- and β-Zr. Small and dense type dislocation loops form under irradiation between 80 and 450 °C. The number density tends to saturate at ~ 0.1 dpa. Compared with the α-Zr, the defect yield is much lower in β-Zr. The stabilities of the metastable phases (β-Zr and ω-Zr) and the thermal-dynamically equilibrium phase, fcc Zr(Mo, Nb)2, under irradiation were also studied at different temperatures. Chemi-STEM elemental mapping was carried out to study the elemental redistribution caused by irradiation. The stability of these phases and the elemental redistribution are strongly dependent on irradiation temperature. In-situ time-of-flight neutron diffraction tensile and compressive tests were carried out at different temperatures to monitor lattice strain evolutions of individual grain families during these tests. The β-Zr is the strengthening phase in this alloy in the as-received plate material. Load is transferred to the β-Zr after yielding of the α-Zr grains. The temperature dependence of static strain aging and the yielding sequence of the individual grain families were discussed. Strong tensile/compressive asymmetry was observed in the {0002} grain family at room temperature. The microstructures of the sample deformed at 400 °C and the samples only subjected to heat treatment at the same temperature were characterized with TEM. Concentration of β phase stabilizers in the β grain and the morphology of β grain have significant effect on the stability of β- and ω-Zr under thermal treatment. Applied stress/strain enhances the decomposition of isothermal ω phase but suppresses α precipitation inside the β grains at high temperature. An α → ω/ZrO phase transformation was observed in the thin foils of Zr-Excel alloy and pure Zr during in-situ heating at 700 °C in TEM.