Assessment of the 10-year probability of osteoporotic hip fracture combining clinical risk factors and heel bone ultrasound: the EPISEM prospective cohort of 12,958 elderly women.

This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.

A Monte Carlo approach to the inverse problem of diffuse pollution risk in agricultural catchments

The hydrological and biogeochemical processes that operate in catchments influence the ecological quality of freshwater systems through delivery of fine sediment, nutrients and organic matter. Most models that seek to characterise the delivery of diffuse pollutants from land to water are reductionist. The multitude of processes that are parameterised in such models to ensure generic applicability make them complex and difficult to test on available data. Here, we outline an alternative - data-driven - inverse approach. We apply SCIMAP, a parsimonious risk based model that has an explicit treatment of hydrological connectivity. we take a Bayesian approach to the inverse problem of determining the risk that must be assigned to different land uses in a catchment in order to explain the spatial patterns of measured in-stream nutrient concentrations. We apply the model to identify the key sources of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) diffuse pollution risk in eleven UK catchments covering a range of landscapes. The model results show that: 1) some land use generates a consistently high or low risk of diffuse nutrient pollution; but 2) the risks associated with different land uses vary both between catchments and between nutrients; and 3) that the dominant sources of P and N risk in the catchment are often a function of the spatial configuration of land uses. Taken on a case-by-case basis, this type of inverse approach may be used to help prioritise the focus of interventions to reduce diffuse pollution risk for freshwater ecosystems. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Patents in the Information and Communications Technology Sector - Development Trends, Problem Areas and Pressures for Change

The patent system was created for the purpose of promoting innovation by granting the inventors a legally defined right to exclude others in return for public disclosure. Today, patents are being applied and granted in greater numbers than ever, particularly in new areas such as biotechnology and information andcommunications technology (ICT), in which research and development (R&D) investments are also high. At the same time, the patent system has been heavily criticized. It has been claimed that it discourages rather than encourages the introduction of new products and processes, particularly in areas that develop quickly, lack one-product-one-patent correlation, and in which theemergence of patent thickets is characteristic. A further concern, which is particularly acute in the U.S., is the granting of so-called 'bad patents', i.e. patents that do not factually fulfil the patentability criteria. From the perspective of technology-intensive companies, patents could,irrespective of the above, be described as the most significant intellectual property right (IPR), having the potential of being used to protect products and processes from imitation, to limit competitors' freedom-to-operate, to provide such freedom to the company in question, and to exchange ideas with others. In fact, patents define the boundaries of ownership in relation to certain technologies. They may be sold or licensed on their ownor they may be components of all sorts of technology acquisition and licensing arrangements. Moreover, with the possibility of patenting business-method inventions in the U.S., patents are becoming increasingly important for companies basing their businesses on services. The value of patents is dependent on the value of the invention it claims, and how it is commercialized. Thus, most of them are worth very little, and most inventions are not worth patenting: it may be possible to protect them in other ways, and the costs of protection may exceed the benefits. Moreover, instead of making all inventions proprietary and seeking to appropriate as highreturns on investments as possible through patent enforcement, it is sometimes better to allow some of them to be disseminated freely in order to maximize market penetration. In fact, the ideology of openness is well established in the software sector, which has been the breeding ground for the open-source movement, for instance. Furthermore, industries, such as ICT, that benefit from network effects do not shun the idea of setting open standards or opening up their proprietary interfaces to allow everyone todesign products and services that are interoperable with theirs. The problem is that even though patents do not, strictly speaking, prevent access to protected technologies, they have the potential of doing so, and conflicts of interest are not rare. The primary aim of this dissertation is to increase understanding of the dynamics and controversies of the U.S. and European patent systems, with the focus on the ICT sector. The study consists of three parts. The first part introduces the research topic and the overall results of the dissertation. The second part comprises a publication in which academic, political, legal and business developments that concern software and business-method patents are investigated, and contentiousareas are identified. The third part examines the problems with patents and open standards both of which carry significant economic weight inthe ICT sector. Here, the focus is on so-called submarine patents, i.e. patentsthat remain unnoticed during the standardization process and then emerge after the standard has been set. The factors that contribute to the problems are documented and the practical and juridical options for alleviating them are assessed. In total, the dissertation provides a good overview of the challenges and pressures for change the patent system is facing,and of how these challenges are reflected in standard setting.

A Sequential Allocation Problem: The Asymptotic Distribution of Resources

In this paper we consider a sequential allocation problem with n individuals. The first individual can consume any amount of some endowment leaving the remaining for the second individual, and so on. Motivated by the limitations associated with the cooperative or non-cooperative solutions we propose a new approach. We establish some axioms that should be satisfied, representativeness, impartiality, etc. The result is a unique asymptotic allocation rule. It is shown for n = 2; 3; 4; and a claim is made for general n. We show that it satisfies a set of desirable properties. Key words: Sequential allocation rule, River sharing problem, Cooperative and non-cooperative games, Dictator and ultimatum games. JEL classification: C79, D63, D74.

The global carbon budget:a conflicting claims problem

Despite global environmental governance has traditionally couched global warming in terms of annual CO2 emissions (a flow), global mean temperature is actually determined by cumulative CO2 emissions in the atmosphere (a stock). Thanks to advances of scientific community, nowadays it is possible to quantify the \global carbon budget", that is, the amount of available cumulative CO2 emissions before crossing the 2oC threshold (Meinshausen et al., 2009). The current approach proposes to analyze the allocation of such global carbon budget among countries as a classical conflicting claims problem (O'Neill, 1982). Based on some appealing principles, it is proposed an efficient and sustainable allocation of the available carbon budget from 2000 to 2050 taking into account different environmental risk scenarios. Keywords: Carbon budget, Conflicting claims problem, Distribution, Climate change. JEL classification: C79, D71, D74, H41, H87, Q50, Q54, Q58.

Cyclicity versus center problem

We prove that there are one-parameter families of planar differential equations for which the center problem has a trivial solution and on the other hand the cyclicity of the weak focus is arbitrarily high. We illustrate this phenomenon in several examples for which this cyclicity is computed.

Integrability of a linear center perturbed by a fourth degree homogeneous polynomial

In this work we study the integrability of a two-dimensional autonomous system in the plane with linear part of center type and non-linear part given by homogeneous polynomials of fourth degree. We give sufficient conditions for integrability in polar coordinates. Finally we establish a conjecture about the independence of the two classes of parameters which appear in the system; if this conjecture is true the integrable cases found will be the only possible ones.

The null divergence factor

Let (P, Q) be a C 1 vector field defined in a open subset U ⊂ R2 . We call a null divergence factor a C 1 solution V (x, y) of the equation P ∂V + Q ∂V = ∂P + ∂Q V . In previous works ∂x ∂y ∂x ∂y it has been shown that this function plays a fundamental role in the problem of the center and in the determination of the limit cycles. In this paper we show how to construct systems with a given null divergence factor. The method presented in this paper is a generalization of the classical Darboux method to generate integrable systems.

Integrability of a linear center perturbed by a fifth degree homogeneous polynomial

In this work we study the integrability of two-dimensional autonomous system in the plane with linear part of center type and non-linear part given by homogeneous polynomials of fifth degree. We give a simple characterisation for the integrable cases in polar coordinates. Finally we formulate a conjecture about the independence of the two classes of parameters which appear on the system; if this conjecture is true the integrable cases found will be the only possible ones.

The potential impact of new effervescent alendronate formulation on compliance and persistence in osteoporosis treatment.

Osteoporotic fractures are a public health problem and their incidence and subsequent economic and social costs are expected to rise in the next future. Different drugs have been developed to reduce osteoporosis and the risk of osteoporotic fractures, and among them, antiresorptive agents, and in particular oral alendronate, are the most widely utilized. However, one of the most common problems with antiresorptive drugs is poor adherence to treatment, which is associated with a high fracture incidence and with an increase in hospitalization costs. One of the main reasons of poor adherence to these treatments is the occurrence of adverse events, mainly at gastrointestinal (GI) level, including dyspepsia, dysphagia, and esophageal ulcers. In light of these considerations the aim of this paper is to perform a literature review to show the pathophysiologic bases of GI alendronate-induced adverse events and how new bisphosphonate formulations like effervescent alendronate can improve compliance and persistence to treatment and decrease the fracture rate incidence in osteoporotic patients.

Improving Information Problem Solving skills in Secondary Education through embedded instruction

This empirical study consists in an investigation of the effects, on the development of Information Problem Solving (IPS) skills, of a long-term embedded, structured and supported instruction in Secondary Education. Forty secondary students of 7th and 8th grades (13–15 years old) participated in the 2-year IPS instruction designed in this study. Twenty of them participated in the IPS instruction, and the remaining twenty were the control group. All the students were pre- and post-tested in their regular classrooms, and their IPS process and performance were logged by means of screen capture software, to warrant their ecological validity. The IPS constituent skills, the web search sub-skills and the answers given by each participant were analyzed. The main findings of our study suggested that experimental students showed a more expert pattern than the control students regarding the constituent skill ‘defining the problem’ and the following two web search sub-skills: ‘search terms’ typed in a search engine, and ‘selected results’ from a SERP. In addition, scores of task performance were statistically better in experimental students than in control group students. The paper contributes to the discussion of how well-designed and well-embedded scaffolds could be designed in instructional programs in order to guarantee the development and efficiency of the students’ IPS skills by using net information better and participating fully in the global knowledge society.