Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Report on the physical, bacteriological and biochemical analyses of seawater samples collected off existing sewage outfalls in the Sierra Leone River Estuary

The studies reported were undertaken as part of a wide environmental feasibility study for the establishment of a modern sewage system in Freetown. The aim of this part of the study was to determine whether the hydrological regime of the Sierra Leone River Estuary would permit the large-scale introduction of sewage into the estuary without damaging the environment. The important factors were whether: 1) there would be sufficient dilution of the sewage; 2) fleatable particles or other substances would create significant adverse effects in the estuarine ecosystem. The outfall sites are described together with the sampling stations, methods and analyses. Results include: 1) T/S profiles; 2) chemical analysis of the water. A review of literature on the Sierra Leone River Estuary is included which provides information on the plankton, benthos and fisheries. Results suggest that at certain points where local circulations occur it would be inadvisable to locate untreated sewage outfalls. Such points are frequently observed in small embayments. These studies have been of short duration but the data can serve as baseline for more extended investigations which would give a more complete picture of the seasonal patterns in the estuary.

Seismic reflection experiments imaging the physical nature of crustal structures in southern California

Seismic reflection methods have been extensively used to probe the Earth's crust and suggest the nature of its formative processes. The analysis of multi-offset seismic reflection data extends the technique from a reconnaissance method to a powerful scientific tool that can be applied to test specific hypotheses. The treatment of reflections at multiple offsets becomes tractable if the assumptions of high-frequency rays are valid for the problem being considered. Their validity can be tested by applying the methods of analysis to full wave synthetics.

Three studies illustrate the application of these principles to investigations of the nature of the crust in southern California. A survey shot by the COCORP consortium in 1977 across the San Andreas fault near Parkfield revealed events in the record sections whose arrival time decreased with offset. The reflectors generating these events are imaged using a multi-offset three-dimensional Kirchhoff migration. Migrations of full wave acoustic synthetics having the same limitations in geometric coverage as the field survey demonstrate the utility of this back projection process for imaging. The migrated depth sections show the locations of the major physical boundaries of the San Andreas fault zone. The zone is bounded on the southwest by a near-vertical fault juxtaposing a Tertiary sedimentary section against uplifted crystalline rocks of the fault zone block. On the northeast, the fault zone is bounded by a fault dipping into the San Andreas, which includes slices of serpentinized ultramafics, intersecting it at 3 km depth. These interpretations can be made despite complications introduced by lateral heterogeneities.

In 1985 the Calcrust consortium designed a survey in the eastern Mojave desert to image structures in both the shallow and the deep crust. Preliminary field experiments showed that the major geophysical acquisition problem to be solved was the poor penetration of seismic energy through a low-velocity surface layer. Its effects could be mitigated through special acquisition and processing techniques. Data obtained from industry showed that quality data could be obtained from areas having a deeper, older sedimentary cover, causing a re-definition of the geologic objectives. Long offset stationary arrays were designed to provide reversed, wider angle coverage of the deep crust over parts of the survey. The preliminary field tests and constant monitoring of data quality and parameter adjustment allowed 108 km of excellent crustal data to be obtained.

This dataset, along with two others from the central and western Mojave, was used to constrain rock properties and the physical condition of the crust. The multi-offset analysis proceeded in two steps. First, an increase in reflection peak frequency with offset is indicative of a thinly layered reflector. The thickness and velocity contrast of the layering can be calculated from the spectral dispersion, to discriminate between structures resulting from broad scale or local effects. Second, the amplitude effects at different offsets of P-P scattering from weak elastic heterogeneities indicate whether the signs of the changes in density, rigidity, and Lame's parameter at the reflector agree or are opposed. The effects of reflection generation and propagation in a heterogeneous, anisotropic crust were contained by the design of the experiment and the simplicity of the observed amplitude and frequency trends. Multi-offset spectra and amplitude trend stacks of the three Mojave Desert datasets suggest that the most reflective structures in the middle crust are strong Poisson's ratio (σ) contrasts. Porous zones or the juxtaposition of units of mutually distant origin are indicated. Heterogeneities in σ increase towards the top of a basal crustal zone at ~22 km depth. The transition to the basal zone and to the mantle include increases in σ. The Moho itself includes ~400 m layering having a velocity higher than that of the uppermost mantle. The Moho maintains the same configuration across the Mojave despite 5 km of crustal thinning near the Colorado River. This indicates that Miocene extension there either thinned just the basal zone, or that the basal zone developed regionally after the extensional event.

Physical characterization of the rack effect and hydrogen bond networks in blue copper proteins

A summary of previous research is presented that indicates that the purpose of a blue copper protein's fold and hydrogen bond network, aka, the rack effect, enforce a copper(II) geometry around the copper(I) ion in the metal site. In several blue copper proteins, the C-terminal histidine ligand becomes protonated and detaches from the copper in the reduced forms. Mutants of amicyanin from Paracoccus denitrificans were made to alter the hydrogen bond network and quantify the rack effect by pK_a shifts.

The pK_a's of mutant amicyanins have been measured by pH-dependent electrochemistry. P94F and P94A mutations loosen the Northern loop, allowing the reduced copper to adopt a relaxed conformation: the ability to relax drives the reduction potentials up. The measured potentials are 265 (wild type), 380 (P94A), and 415 (P94F) mV vs. NHE. The measured pK_a's are 7.0 (wild type), 6.3 (P94A), and 5.0 (P94F). The additional hydrogen bond to the thiolate in the mutants is indicated by a red-shift in the blue copper absorption and an increase in the parallel hyperfine splitting in the EPR spectrum. This hydrogen bond is invoked as the cause for the increased stability of the C-terminal imidazole.

Melting curves give a measure of the thermal stability of the protein. A thermodynamic intermediate with pH-dependent reversibility is revealed. Comparisons with the electrochemistry and apoamicyanin suggest that the intermediate involves the region of the protein near the metal site. This region is destabilized in the P94F mutant; coupled with the evidence that the imidazole is stabilized under the same conditions confirms an original concept of the rack effect: a high energy configuration is stabilized at a cost to the rest of the protein.

Breaking the 400 ppm barrier: Physical and Social implications of the recent CO2 rise

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Crystals that count! Physical principles and experimental investigations of DNA tile self-assembly

Algorithmic DNA tiles systems are fascinating. From a theoretical perspective, they can result in simple systems that assemble themselves into beautiful, complex structures through fundamental interactions and logical rules. As an experimental technique, they provide a promising method for programmably assembling complex, precise crystals that can grow to considerable size while retaining nanoscale resolution. In the journey from theoretical abstractions to experimental demonstrations, however, lie numerous challenges and complications.

In this thesis, to examine these challenges, we consider the physical principles behind DNA tile self-assembly. We survey recent progress in experimental algorithmic self-assembly, and explain the simple physical models behind this progress. Using direct observation of individual tile attachments and detachments with an atomic force microscope, we test some of the fundamental assumptions of the widely-used kinetic Tile Assembly Model, obtaining results that fit the model to within error. We then depart from the simplest form of that model, examining the effects of DNA sticky end sequence energetics on tile system behavior. We develop theoretical models, sequence assignment algorithms, and a software package, StickyDesign, for sticky end sequence design.

As a demonstration of a specific tile system, we design a binary counting ribbon that can accurately count from a programmable starting value and stop growing after overflowing, resulting in a single system that can construct ribbons of precise and programmable length. In the process of designing the system, we explain numerous considerations that provide insight into more general tile system design, particularly with regards to tile concentrations, facet nucleation, the construction of finite assemblies, and design beyond the abstract Tile Assembly Model.

Finally, we present our crystals that count: experimental results with our binary counting system that represent a significant improvement in the accuracy of experimental algorithmic self-assembly, including crystals that count perfectly with 5 bits from 0 to 31. We show some preliminary experimental results on the construction of our capping system to stop growth after counters overflow, and offer some speculation on potential future directions of the field.

Physical, Metabolic, and Energetic Investigations of Methane-Metabolizing Microbial Communities

Understanding the roles of microorganisms in environmental settings by linking phylogenetic identity to metabolic function is a key challenge in delineating their broad-scale impact and functional diversity throughout the biosphere. This work addresses and extends such questions in the context of marine methane seeps, which represent globally relevant conduits for an important greenhouse gas. Through the application and development of a range of culture-independent tools, novel habitats for methanotrophic microbial communities were identified, established settings were characterized in new ways, and potential past conditions amenable to methane-based metabolism were proposed. Biomass abundance and metabolic activity measures – both catabolic and anabolic – demonstrated that authigenic carbonates associated with seep environments retain methanotrophic activity, not only within high-flow seep settings but also in adjacent locations exhibiting no visual evidence of chemosynthetic communities. Across this newly extended habitat, microbial diversity surveys revealed archaeal assemblages that were shaped primarily by seepage activity level and bacterial assemblages influenced more substantially by physical substrate type. In order to reliably measure methane consumption rates in these and other methanotrophic settings, a novel method was developed that traces deuterium atoms from the methane substrate into aqueous medium and uses empirically established scaling factors linked to radiotracer rate techniques to arrive at absolute methane consumption values. Stable isotope probing metaproteomic investigations exposed an array of functional diversity both within and beyond methane oxidation- and sulfate reduction-linked metabolisms, identifying components of each proposed enzyme in both pathways. A core set of commonly occurring unannotated protein products was identified as promising targets for future biochemical investigation. Physicochemical and energetic principles governing anaerobic methane oxidation were incorporated into a reaction transport model that was applied to putative settings on ancient Mars. Many conditions enabled exergonic model reactions, marking the metabolism and its attendant biomarkers as potentially promising targets for future astrobiological investigations. This set of inter-related investigations targeting methane metabolism extends the known and potential habitat of methanotrophic microbial communities and provides a more detailed understanding of their activity and functional diversity.

Aspects of the washout of salmonid eggs. 1. Observations on the physical characteristics of real and artificial eggs, their rate of fall in a water column and their pattern of settlement in an experimental channel

When salmonid redds are disrupted by spates, the displaced eggs will drift downstream. The mean distance of travel, the types of locations in which the eggs resettle and the depth of reburial of displaced eggs are not known. Investigation of these topics under field conditions presents considerable practical problems, though the use of artificial eggs might help to overcome some of them. Attempts to assess the similarities and/or differences in performance between real and artificial eggs are essential before artificial eggs can validly be used to simulate real eggs. The present report first compares the two types of egg in terms of their measurable physical characteristics (e.g. dimensions and density). The rate at which eggs fall in still water will relate to the rate at which they are likely to resettle in flowing water in the field. As the rate of fall will be influenced by a number of additional factors (e.g. shape and surface texture) which are not easily measured directly, the rates of fall of the two types of egg have been compared directly under controlled conditions. Finally, comparisons of the pattern of settlement of the two types of egg in flowing water in an experimental channel have been made. Although the work was primarily aimed at testing the value of artificial eggs as a simulation of real eggs, several side issues more directly concerned with the properties of real eggs and the likely distance of drift in natural streams have also been explored. This is the first of three reports made on this topic by the author in 1984.

Deep near-infrared spectroscopy of high-redshift galaxies: the physical growth of passive systems

The assembly history of massive galaxies is one of the most important aspects of galaxy formation and evolution. Although we have a broad idea of what physical processes govern the early phases of galaxy evolution, there are still many open questions. In this thesis I demonstrate the crucial role that spectroscopy can play in a physical understanding of galaxy evolution. I present deep near-infrared spectroscopy for a sample of high-redshift galaxies, from which I derive important physical properties and their evolution with cosmic time. I take advantage of the recent arrival of efficient near-infrared detectors to target the rest-frame optical spectra of z > 1 galaxies, from which many physical quantities can be derived. After illustrating the applications of near-infrared deep spectroscopy with a study of star-forming galaxies, I focus on the evolution of massive quiescent systems.

Most of this thesis is based on two samples collected at the W. M. Keck Observatory that represent a significant step forward in the spectroscopic study of z > 1 quiescent galaxies. All previous spectroscopic samples at this redshift were either limited to a few objects, or much shallower in terms of depth. Our first sample is composed of 56 quiescent galaxies at 1 < z < 1.6 collected using the upgraded red arm of the Low Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (LRIS). The second consists of 24 deep spectra of 1.5 < z < 2.5 quiescent objects observed with the Multi-Object Spectrometer For Infra-Red Exploration (MOSFIRE). Together, these spectra span the critical epoch 1 < z < 2.5, where most of the red sequence is formed, and where the sizes of quiescent systems are observed to increase significantly.

We measure stellar velocity dispersions and dynamical masses for the largest number of z > 1 quiescent galaxies to date. By assuming that the velocity dispersion of a massive galaxy does not change throughout its lifetime, as suggested by theoretical studies, we match galaxies in the local universe with their high-redshift progenitors. This allows us to derive the physical growth in mass and size experienced by individual systems, which represents a substantial advance over photometric inferences based on the overall galaxy population. We find a significant physical growth among quiescent galaxies over 0 < z < 2.5 and, by comparing the slope of growth in the mass-size plane dlogR_e/dlogM_∗ with the results of numerical simulations, we can constrain the physical process responsible for the evolution. Our results show that the slope of growth becomes steeper at higher redshifts, yet is broadly consistent with minor mergers being the main process by which individual objects evolve in mass and size.

By fitting stellar population models to the observed spectroscopy and photometry we derive reliable ages and other stellar population properties. We show that the addition of the spectroscopic data helps break the degeneracy between age and dust extinction, and yields significantly more robust results compared to fitting models to the photometry alone. We detect a clear relation between size and age, where larger galaxies are younger. Therefore, over time the average size of the quiescent population will increase because of the contribution of large galaxies recently arrived to the red sequence. This effect, called progenitor bias, is different from the physical size growth discussed above, but represents another contribution to the observed difference between the typical sizes of low- and high-redshift quiescent galaxies. By reconstructing the evolution of the red sequence starting at z ∼ 1.25 and using our stellar population histories to infer the past behavior to z ∼ 2, we demonstrate that progenitor bias accounts for only half of the observed growth of the population. The remaining size evolution must be due to physical growth of individual systems, in agreement with our dynamical study.

Finally, we use the stellar population properties to explore the earliest periods which led to the formation of massive quiescent galaxies. We find tentative evidence for two channels of star formation quenching, which suggests the existence of two independent physical mechanisms. We also detect a mass downsizing, where more massive galaxies form at higher redshift, and then evolve passively. By analyzing in depth the star formation history of the brightest object at z > 2 in our sample, we are able to put constraints on the quenching timescale and on the properties of its progenitor.

A consistent picture emerges from our analyses: massive galaxies form at very early epochs, are quenched on short timescales, and then evolve passively. The evolution is passive in the sense that no new stars are formed, but significant mass and size growth is achieved by accreting smaller, gas-poor systems. At the same time the population of quiescent galaxies grows in number due to the quenching of larger star-forming galaxies. This picture is in agreement with other observational studies, such as measurements of the merger rate and analyses of galaxy evolution at fixed number density.

Changes in physical and chemical variables

An article reviewing the work undertaken looking at the seasonal variation of chemical conditions in water at various depths in lakes. The laboratory tests undertaken for the research is outlined, as well as details of the sampling locations and the staff involved with the work. One figure shows the seasonal variation in the amounts of dissolved substances in the surface water of Windermere during 1936. Another figure shows seasonal varation inthe dry weight of phyto- and zooplankton in Windermere. Seasonal changes are discussed further and a table is included showing chemical conditions in winter and summer for Windermere.

Distributed Optimal Control of Cyber-Physical Systems: Controller Synthesis, Architecture Design and System Identification

The centralized paradigm of a single controller and a single plant upon which modern control theory is built is no longer applicable to modern cyber-physical systems of interest, such as the power-grid, software defined networks or automated highways systems, as these are all large-scale and spatially distributed. Both the scale and the distributed nature of these systems has motivated the decentralization of control schemes into local sub-controllers that measure, exchange and act on locally available subsets of the globally available system information. This decentralization of control logic leads to different decision makers acting on asymmetric information sets, introduces the need for coordination between them, and perhaps not surprisingly makes the resulting optimal control problem much harder to solve. In fact, shortly after such questions were posed, it was realized that seemingly simple decentralized optimal control problems are computationally intractable to solve, with the Wistenhausen counterexample being a famous instance of this phenomenon. Spurred on by this perhaps discouraging result, a concerted 40 year effort to identify tractable classes of distributed optimal control problems culminated in the notion of quadratic invariance, which loosely states that if sub-controllers can exchange information with each other at least as quickly as the effect of their control actions propagates through the plant, then the resulting distributed optimal control problem admits a convex formulation.

The identification of quadratic invariance as an appropriate means of "convexifying" distributed optimal control problems led to a renewed enthusiasm in the controller synthesis community, resulting in a rich set of results over the past decade. The contributions of this thesis can be seen as being a part of this broader family of results, with a particular focus on closing the gap between theory and practice by relaxing or removing assumptions made in the traditional distributed optimal control framework. Our contributions are to the foundational theory of distributed optimal control, and fall under three broad categories, namely controller synthesis, architecture design and system identification.

We begin by providing two novel controller synthesis algorithms. The first is a solution to the distributed H-infinity optimal control problem subject to delay constraints, and provides the only known exact characterization of delay-constrained distributed controllers satisfying an H-infinity norm bound. The second is an explicit dynamic programming solution to a two player LQR state-feedback problem with varying delays. Accommodating varying delays represents an important first step in combining distributed optimal control theory with the area of Networked Control Systems that considers lossy channels in the feedback loop. Our next set of results are concerned with controller architecture design. When designing controllers for large-scale systems, the architectural aspects of the controller such as the placement of actuators, sensors, and the communication links between them can no longer be taken as given -- indeed the task of designing this architecture is now as important as the design of the control laws themselves. To address this task, we formulate the Regularization for Design (RFD) framework, which is a unifying computationally tractable approach, based on the model matching framework and atomic norm regularization, for the simultaneous co-design of a structured optimal controller and the architecture needed to implement it. Our final result is a contribution to distributed system identification. Traditional system identification techniques such as subspace identification are not computationally scalable, and destroy rather than leverage any a priori information about the system's interconnection structure. We argue that in the context of system identification, an essential building block of any scalable algorithm is the ability to estimate local dynamics within a large interconnected system. To that end we propose a promising heuristic for identifying the dynamics of a subsystem that is still connected to a large system. We exploit the fact that the transfer function of the local dynamics is low-order, but full-rank, while the transfer function of the global dynamics is high-order, but low-rank, to formulate this separation task as a nuclear norm minimization problem. Finally, we conclude with a brief discussion of future research directions, with a particular emphasis on how to incorporate the results of this thesis, and those of optimal control theory in general, into a broader theory of dynamics, control and optimization in layered architectures.

The impact of physical processes on algal growth

Mixing and transport processes in surface waters strongly influence the structure of aquatic ecosystems. The impact of mixing on algal growth is species-dependent, affecting the competition among species and acting as a selective factor for the composition of the biocoenose. Were it not for the ever-changing ”aquatic weather”, the composition of pelagic ecosystems would be relatively simple. Probably just a few optimally adapted algal species would survive in a given water-body. In contrast to terrestrial ecosystems, in which the spatial heterogeneity is primarily responsible for the abundance of niches, in aquatic systems (especially in the pelagic zone) the niches are provided by the temporal structure of physical processes. The latter are discussed in terms of the relative sizes of physical versus biological time-scales. The relevant time-scales of mixing and transport cover the range between seconds and years. Correspondingly, their influence on growth of algae is based on different mechanisms: rapid changes are relevant for the fast biological processes such as nutrient uptake and photosynthesis, and the slower changes are relevant for the less dynamic processes such as growth, respiration, mineralization, and settling of algal cells. Mixing time-scales are combined with a dynamic model of photosynthesis to demonstrate their influence on algal growth.