The investment development path in a globalised world: implications for Eastern Europe

This article summarises recent revisions to the investment development path (IDP) as postulated by Narula and Dunning (2010). The IDP provides a framework to understand the dynamic interaction between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic development. The revisions take into account some recent changes in the global economic environment. This paper argues that studies based on the IDP should adopt a broader perspective, encompassing the idiosyncratic economic structure of countries as well as the heterogeneous nature of FDI. It is critical to understand the complex forces and interactions that determine the turning points in a country’s IDP, and to more explicitly acknowledge the role of historical, social and political circumstances in hindering or promoting FDI. We discuss some of the implications for Eastern European countries and provide some guidelines for future research.

The system identification and control of Hammerstein system using non-uniform rational B-spline neural network and particle swarm optimization

In this paper a new system identification algorithm is introduced for Hammerstein systems based on observational input/output data. The nonlinear static function in the Hammerstein system is modelled using a non-uniform rational B-spline (NURB) neural network. The proposed system identification algorithm for this NURB network based Hammerstein system consists of two successive stages. First the shaping parameters in NURB network are estimated using a particle swarm optimization (PSO) procedure. Then the remaining parameters are estimated by the method of the singular value decomposition (SVD). Numerical examples including a model based controller are utilized to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach. The controller consists of computing the inverse of the nonlinear static function approximated by NURB network, followed by a linear pole assignment controller.

Path dependence and Britain’s "coal wagon problem"

This article explores the nature and impact of path dependence in British rail coal haulage before 1939. It examines the factors which locked Britain's railways into a system of small coal wagons with highly fragmented ownership, the cost penalties of this system, and the reasons that attempts at modernization were unsuccessful. The analysis highlights the importance of decentralized ownership of a highly durable installed base of complementary infrastructure. Technical and institutional interrelatedness blocked incremental modernization, while the political requirement to compensate private wagon owners for the loss of their wagon stock made wholesale rationalization financially unattractive.

Temperature optimization of optical-phase conjugation in dye doped polymer-films

Experimental results of the temperature dependence of the nonlinear optical response of methyl red doped polymethylmethacrylate films in the range 20°C to 170°C are reported. It is found that the intensity of the phase conjugate signal resulting from degenerate four-wave mixing using pump and probe beams with parallel polarisation states increases dramatically on heating by a factor of ∼ 10, reaching a maximum at ∼ 100°C. The intensity of the phase conjugate signal for the case with crossed polarisation states of the pump and probe beams drops monotonically with increasing temperature. For both configurations the response time shortens with increasing temperature. The particular role of the polymer matrix in this temperature variation of the nonlinear optical response is discussed.

A novel satellite mission concept for upper air water vapour, aerosol and cloud observations using integrated path differential absorption LiDAR limb sounding

We propose a new satellite mission to deliver high quality measurements of upper air water vapour. The concept centres around a LiDAR in limb sounding by occultation geometry, designed to operate as a very long path system for differential absorption measurements. We present a preliminary performance analysis with a system sized to send 75 mJ pulses at 25 Hz at four wavelengths close to 935 nm, to up to 5 microsatellites in a counter-rotating orbit, carrying retroreflectors characterized by a reflected beam divergence of roughly twice the emitted laser beam divergence of 15 µrad. This provides water vapour profiles with a vertical sampling of 110 m; preliminary calculations suggest that the system could detect concentrations of less than 5 ppm. A secondary payload of a fairly conventional medium resolution multispectral radiometer allows wide-swath cloud and aerosol imaging. The total weight and power of the system are estimated at 3 tons and 2,700 W respectively. This novel concept presents significant challenges, including the performance of the lasers in space, the tracking between the main spacecraft and the retroreflectors, the refractive effects of turbulence, and the design of the telescopes to achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio for the high precision measurements. The mission concept was conceived at the Alpbach Summer School 2010.

Comparative study of the performance of the M-cycle counter-flow and cross-flow heat exchangers for indirect evaporative cooling - paving the path towards sustainable cooling of buildings

This paper provides a comparative study of the performance of cross-flow and counter-flow M-cycle heat exchangers for dew point cooling. It is recognised that evaporative cooling systems offer a low energy alternative to conventional air conditioning units. Recently emerged dew point cooling, as the renovated evaporative cooling configuration, is claimed to have much higher cooling output over the conventional evaporative modes owing to use of the M-cycle heat exchangers. Cross-flow and counter-flow heat exchangers, as the available structures for M-cycle dew point cooling processing, were theoretically and experimentally investigated to identify the difference in cooling effectiveness of both under the parallel structural/operational conditions, optimise the geometrical sizes of the exchangers and suggest their favourite operational conditions. Through development of a dedicated computer model and case-by-case experimental testing and validation, a parametric study of the cooling performance of the counter-flow and cross-flow heat exchangers was carried out. The results showed the counter-flow exchanger offered greater (around 20% higher) cooling capacity, as well as greater (15%–23% higher) dew-point and wet-bulb effectiveness when equal in physical size and under the same operating conditions. The cross-flow system, however, had a greater (10% higher) Energy Efficiency (COP). As the increased cooling effectiveness will lead to reduced air volume flow rate, smaller system size and lower cost, whilst the size and cost are the inherent barriers for use of dew point cooling as the alternation of the conventional cooling systems, the counter-flow system is considered to offer practical advantages over the cross-flow system that would aid the uptake of this low energy cooling alternative. In line with increased global demand for energy in cooling of building, largely by economic booming of emerging developing nations and recognised global warming, the research results will be of significant importance in terms of promoting deployment of the low energy dew point cooling system, helping reduction of energy use in cooling of buildings and cut of the associated carbon emission.

Cloud droplet size and liquid water path retrievals from zenith radiance measurements: examples from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program and the Aerosol Robotic Network

The ground-based Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) and NASA Aerosol Robotic Net- work (AERONET) routinely monitor clouds using zenith ra- diances at visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Using the transmittance calculated from such measurements, we have developed a new retrieval method for cloud effective droplet size and conducted extensive tests for non-precipitating liquid water clouds. The underlying principle is to combine a liquid-water-absorbing wavelength (i.e., 1640 nm) with a non-water-absorbing wavelength for acquiring information on cloud droplet size and optical depth. For simulated stratocumulus clouds with liquid water path less than 300 g m−2 and horizontal resolution of 201 m, the retrieval method underestimates the mean effective radius by 0.8μm, with a root-mean-squared error of 1.7 μm and a relative deviation of 13%. For actual observations with a liquid water path less than 450 g m−2 at the ARM Oklahoma site during 2007– 2008, our 1.5-min-averaged retrievals are generally larger by around 1 μm than those from combined ground-based cloud radar and microwave radiometer at a 5-min temporal resolution. We also compared our retrievals to those from combined shortwave flux and microwave observations for relatively homogeneous clouds, showing that the bias between these two retrieval sets is negligible, but the error of 2.6 μm and the relative deviation of 22 % are larger than those found in our simulation case. Finally, the transmittance-based cloud effective droplet radii agree to better than 11 % with satellite observations and have a negative bias of 1 μm. Overall, the retrieval method provides reasonable cloud effective radius estimates, which can enhance the cloud products of both ARM and AERONET.

Codon and mRNA sequence optimization of microdystrophin transgenes improves expression and physiological outcome in dystrophic mdx mice following AAV2/8 gene transfer

Duchenne muscular dystrophy is a fatal muscle-wasting disorder. Lack of dystrophin compromises the integrity of the sarcolemma and results in myofibers that are highly prone to contraction-induced injury. Recombinant adenoassociated virus (rAAV)-mediated dystrophin gene transfer strategies to muscle for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) have been limited by the small cloning capacity of rAAV vectors and high titers necessary to achieve efficient systemic gene transfer. In this study, we assess the impact of codon optimization on microdystrophin (ΔAB/R3-R18/ΔCT) expression and function in the mdx mouse and compare the function of two different configurations of codon-optimized microdystrophin genes (ΔAB/R3-R18/ΔCT and ΔR4-R23/ΔCT) under the control of a muscle-restrictive promoter (Spc5-12). Codon optimization of microdystrophin significantly increases levels of microdystrophin mRNA and protein after intramuscular and systemic administration of plasmid DNA or rAAV2/8. Physiological assessment demonstrates that codon optimization of ΔAB/R3-R18/ΔCT results in significant improvement in specific force, but does not improve resistance to eccentric contractions compared with noncodon-optimized ΔAB/ R3-R18/ΔCT. However, codon-optimized microdystrophin ΔR4-R23/ΔCT completely restored specific force generation and provided substantial protection from contraction-induced injury. These results demonstrate that codon optimization of microdystrophin under the control of a muscle-specific promoter can significantly improve expression levels such that reduced titers of rAAV vectors will be required for efficient systemic administration.

Economic transformation in Ghana: where will the path lead?

In the context of the Ghanaian government’s objective of structural transformation with an emphasis on manufacturing, this paper provides a case study of economic transformation in Ghana, exploring patterns of growth, sectoral transformation, and agglomeration. We document and examine why, despite impressive growth and poverty reduction figures, Ghana’s economy has exhibited less transformation than might be expected for a country that has recently achieved middle-income status. Ghana’s reduced share of agriculture in the economy, unlike many successfully transformed countries in Asia and Latin America, has been filled by services, while manufacturing has stagnated and even declined. Likely causes include weak transformation of the agricultural sector and therefore little development of agroprocessing, the emergence of consumption cities and consumption-driven growth, upward pressure on the exchange rate, weak production linkages, and a poor environment for private-sector-led manufacturing.

Trade-offs and responsiveness of the single-layer urban canopy parametrization in WRF: an offline evaluation using the MOSCEM optimization algorithm and field observations

For an increasing number of applications, mesoscale modelling systems now aim to better represent urban areas. The complexity of processes resolved by urban parametrization schemes varies with the application. The concept of fitness-for-purpose is therefore critical for both the choice of parametrizations and the way in which the scheme should be evaluated. A systematic and objective model response analysis procedure (Multiobjective Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (MOSCEM) algorithm) is used to assess the fitness of the single-layer urban canopy parametrization implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The scheme is evaluated regarding its ability to simulate observed surface energy fluxes and the sensitivity to input parameters. Recent amendments are described, focussing on features which improve its applicability to numerical weather prediction, such as a reduced and physically more meaningful list of input parameters. The study shows a high sensitivity of the scheme to parameters characterizing roof properties in contrast to a low response to road-related ones. Problems in partitioning of energy between turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes are also emphasized. Some initial guidelines to prioritize efforts to obtain urban land-cover class characteristics in WRF are provided. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright.

Sparse model construction using coordinate descent optimization

We propose a new sparse model construction method aimed at maximizing a model’s generalisation capability for a large class of linear-in-the-parameters models. The coordinate descent optimization algorithm is employed with a modified l1- penalized least squares cost function in order to estimate a single parameter and its regularization parameter simultaneously based on the leave one out mean square error (LOOMSE). Our original contribution is to derive a closed form of optimal LOOMSE regularization parameter for a single term model, for which we show that the LOOMSE can be analytically computed without actually splitting the data set leading to a very simple parameter estimation method. We then integrate the new results within the coordinate descent optimization algorithm to update model parameters one at the time for linear-in-the-parameters models. Consequently a fully automated procedure is achieved without resort to any other validation data set for iterative model evaluation. Illustrative examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new approaches.

Optimization of a sea ice model using basinwide observations of Arctic sea ice thickness, extent, and velocity

A stand-alone sea ice model is tuned and validated using satellite-derived, basinwide observations of sea ice thickness, extent, and velocity from the years 1993 to 2001. This is the first time that basin-scale measurements of sea ice thickness have been used for this purpose. The model is based on the CICE sea ice model code developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, with some minor modifications, and forcing consists of 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (POLES) data. Three parameters are varied in the tuning process: Ca, the air–ice drag coefficient; P*, the ice strength parameter; and α, the broadband albedo of cold bare ice, with the aim being to determine the subset of this three-dimensional parameter space that gives the best simultaneous agreement with observations with this forcing set. It is found that observations of sea ice extent and velocity alone are not sufficient to unambiguously tune the model, and that sea ice thickness measurements are necessary to locate a unique subset of parameter space in which simultaneous agreement is achieved with all three observational datasets.

Urban and agricultural soils: conflicts and trade-offs in the optimization of ecosystem services

On-going human population growth and changing patterns of resource consumption are increasing global demand for ecosystem services, many of which are provided by soils. Some of these ecosystem services are linearly related to the surface area of pervious soil, whereas others show non-linear relationships, making ecosystem service optimization a complex task. As limited land availability creates conflicting demands among various types of land use, a central challenge is how to weigh these conflicting interests and how to achieve the best solutions possible from a perspective of sustainable societal development. These conflicting interests become most apparent in soils that are the most heavily used by humans for specific purposes: urban soils used for green spaces, housing, and other infrastructure and agricultural soils for producing food, fibres and biofuels. We argue that, despite their seemingly divergent uses of land, agricultural and urban soils share common features with regards to interactions between ecosystem services, and that the trade-offs associated with decision-making, while scale- and context-dependent, can be surprisingly similar between the two systems. We propose that the trade-offs within land use types and their soil-related ecosystems services are often disproportional, and quantifying these will enable ecologists and soil scientists to help policy makers optimizing management decisions when confronted with demands for multiple services under limited land availability.