A Cox Model for Biostatistics of the Future

Professor Sir David R. Cox (DRC) is widely acknowledged as among the most important scientists of the second half of the twentieth century. He inherited the mantle of statistical science from Pearson and Fisher, advanced their ideas, and translated statistical theory into practice so as to forever change the application of statistics in many fields, but especially biology and medicine. The logistic and proportional hazards models he substantially developed, are arguably among the most influential biostatistical methods in current practice. This paper looks forward over the period from DRC's 80th to 90th birthdays, to speculate about the future of biostatistics, drawing lessons from DRC's contributions along the way. We consider "Cox's model" of biostatistics, an approach to statistical science that: formulates scientific questions or quantities in terms of parameters gamma in probability models f(y; gamma) that represent in a parsimonious fashion, the underlying scientific mechanisms (Cox, 1997); partition the parameters gamma = theta, eta into a subset of interest theta and other "nuisance parameters" eta necessary to complete the probability distribution (Cox and Hinkley, 1974); develops methods of inference about the scientific quantities that depend as little as possible upon the nuisance parameters (Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, 1989); and thinks critically about the appropriate conditional distribution on which to base infrences. We briefly review exciting biomedical and public health challenges that are capable of driving statistical developments in the next decade. We discuss the statistical models and model-based inferences central to the CM approach, contrasting them with computationally-intensive strategies for prediction and inference advocated by Breiman and others (e.g. Breiman, 2001) and to more traditional design-based methods of inference (Fisher, 1935). We discuss the hierarchical (multi-level) model as an example of the future challanges and opportunities for model-based inference. We then consider the role of conditional inference, a second key element of the CM. Recent examples from genetics are used to illustrate these ideas. Finally, the paper examines causal inference and statistical computing, two other topics we believe will be central to biostatistics research and practice in the coming decade. Throughout the paper, we attempt to indicate how DRC's work and the "Cox Model" have set a standard of excellence to which all can aspire in the future.

Enantioselective analysis of ketamine and its metabolites in equine plasma and urine by CE with multiple isomer sulfated beta-CD

CE with multiple isomer sulfated beta-CD as the chiral selector was assessed for the simultaneous analysis of the enantiomers of ketamine and metabolites in extracts of equine plasma and urine. Different lots of the commercial chiral selector provided significant changes in enantiomeric ketamine separability, a fact that can be related to the manufacturing variability. A mixture of two lots was found to provide high-resolution separations and interference-free detection of the enantiomers of ketamine, norketamine, dehydronorketamine, and an incompletely identified hydroxylated metabolite of norketamine in liquid/liquid extracts of the two body fluids. Ketamine, norketamine, and dehydronorketamine could be unambiguously identified via HPLC fractionation of urinary extracts and using LC-MS and LC-MS/MS with 1 mmu mass discrimination. The CE assay was used to characterize the stereoselectivity of the compounds' enantiomers in the samples of five ponies anesthetized with isoflurane in oxygen and treated with intravenous continuous infusion of racemic ketamine. The concentrations of the ketamine enantiomers in plasma are equal, whereas the urinary amount of R-ketamine is larger than that of S-ketamine. Plasma and urine contain higher S- than R-norketamine levels and the mean S-/R-enantiomer ratios of dehydronorketamine in plasma and urine are lower than unity and similar.

Influence of different spacers on the biological profile of a DOTA-somatostatin analogue

Radiolabeled somatostatin analogues have been successfully used for targeted radiotherapy and for imaging of somatostatin receptor (sst1-5)-positive tumors. Nevertheless, these analogues are subject to improving their tumor-to-nontarget ratio to enhance their diagnostic or therapeutic properties, preventing nephrotoxicity. In order to understand the influence of lipophilicity and charge on the pharmacokinetic profile of [1,4,7,10-tetraazacyclododecane-1,4,7,10-tetraacetic acid (DOTA)]-somatostatin-based radioligands such as [DOTA,1-Nal3]-octreotide (DOTA-NOC), different spacers (X) based on 8-amino-3,6-dioxaoctanoic acid (PEG2), 15-amino-4,7,10,13-tetraoxapentadecanoic acid (PEG4), N-acetyl glucosamine (GlcNAc), triglycine, beta-alanine, aspartic acid, and lysine were introduced between the chelator DOTA and the peptide NOC. All DOTA-X-NOC conjugates were synthesized by Fmoc solid-phase synthesis. The partition coefficient (log D) at pH = 7.4 indicated that higher hydrophilicity than [111In-DOTA]-NOC was achieved with the introduction of the mentioned spacers, except with triglycine and beta-alanine. The high affinity of [InIII-DOTA]-NOC for human sst2 (hsst2) was preserved with the structural modifications, while an overall drop for hsst3 affinity was observed, except in the case of [InIII-DOTA]-beta-Ala-NOC. The new conjugates preserved the good affinity for hsst5, except for [InIII-DOTA]-Asn(GlcNAc)-NOC, which showed decreased affinity. A significant 1.2-fold improvement in the specific internalization rate in AR4-2J rat pancreatic tumor cells (sst2 receptor expression) at 4 h was achieved with the introduction of Asp as a spacer in the parent compound. In sst3-expressing HEK cells, the specific internalization rate at 4 h for [111In-DOTA]-NOC (13.1% +/- 0.3%) was maintained with [111In-DOTA]-beta-Ala-NOC (14.0% +/- 1.8%), but the remaining derivatives showed <2% specific internalization. Biodistribution studies were performed with Lewis rats bearing the AR4-2J rat pancreatic tumor. In comparison to [111In-DOTA]-NOC (2.96% +/- 0.48% IA/g), the specific uptake in the tumor at 4 h p.i. was significantly improved for the 111In-labeled sugar analogue (4.17% +/- 0.46% IA/g), which among all the new derivatives presented the best tumor-to-kidney ratio (1.9).

Interrogating the spaces of personal photography : women, identity, and the cultural formation of photographic practice

Personal photographs permeate our lives from the moment we are born as they define who we are within our familial group and local communities. Archived in family albums or framed on living room walls, they continue on after our death as mnemonic artifacts referencing our gendered, raced, and ethnic identities. This dissertation examines salient instances of what women “do” with personal photographs, not only as authors and subjects but also as collectors, archivists, and family and cultural historians. This project seeks to contribute to more productive, complex discourse about how women form relationships and engage with the conventions and practices of personal photography. In the first part of this dissertation I revisit developments in the history of personal photography, including the advertising campaigns of the Kodak and Agfa Girls and the development of albums such as the Stammbuch and its predecessor, the carte-de-visite, that demonstrate how personal photography has functioned as a gendered activity that references family unity, sentimentalism for the past, and self-representation within normative familial and dominant cultural groups, thus suggesting its importance as a cultural practice of identity formation. The second and primary section of the dissertation expands on the critical analyses of Gillian Rose, Patricia Holland, and Nancy Martha West, who propose that personal photography, marketed to and taken on by women, double-exposes their gendered identities. Drawing on work by critics such as Deborah Willis, bell hooks, and Abigail Solomon-Godeau, I examine how the reconfiguration, recontextualization, and relocation of personal photographs in the respective work of Christine Saari, Fern Logan, and Katie Knight interrogates and complicates gendered, raced, and ethnic identities and cultural attitudes about them. In the final section of the dissertation I briefly examine select examples of how emerging digital spaces on the Internet function as a site for personal photography, one that both reinscribes traditional cultural formations while offering new opportunities for women for the display and audiencing of identities outside the family.

Optimal current control for sub-unity power factor correction

Switching mode power supplies (SMPS) are subject to low power factor and high harmonic distortions. Active power-factor correction (APFC) is a technique to improve the power factor and to reduce the harmonic distortion of SMPSs. However, this technique results in double frequency output voltage variation which can be reduced by using a large output capacitance. Using large capacitors increases the cost and size of the converter. Furthermore, the capacitors are subject to frequent failures mainly caused by evaporation of the electrolytic solution which reduce the converter reliability. This thesis presents an optimal control method for the input current of a boost converter to reduce the size of the output capacitor. The optimum current waveform as a function of weighing factor is found by using the Euler Lagrange equation. A set of simulations are performed to determine the ideal weighing which gives the lowest possible output voltage variation as the converter still meets the IEC-61000-3-2 class-A harmonics requirements with a power factor of 0.8 or higher. The proposed method is verified by the experimental work. A boost converter is designed and it is run for different power levels, 100 W, 200 W and 400 W. The desired output voltage ripple is 10 V peak to peak for the output voltage of 200 Vdc. This ripple value corresponds to a ± 2.5% output voltage ripple. The experimental and the simulation results are found to be quite matching. A significant reduction in capacitor size, as high as 50%, is accomplished by using the proposed method.

Self-assembling cannabinomimetics: supramolecular structures of N-alkyl amides

Certain fatty acid N-alkyl amides from the medicinal plant Echinacea activate cannabinoid type-2 (CB2) receptors. In this study we show that the CB2-binding Echinacea constituents dodeca-2E,4E-dienoic acid isobutylamide (1) and dodeca-2E,4E,8Z,10Z-tetraenoic acid isobutylamide (2) form micelles in aqueous medium. In contrast, micelle formation is not observed for undeca-2E-ene-8,10-diynoic acid isobutylamide (3), which does not bind to CB2, or structurally related endogenous cannabinoids, such as arachidonoyl ethanolamine (anandamide). The critical micelle concentration (CMC) range of 1 and 2 was determined by fluorescence spectroscopy as 200-300 and 7400-10000 nM, respectively. The size of premicelle aggregates, micelles, and supermicelles was studied by dynamic light scattering. Microscopy images show that compound 1, but not 2, forms globular and rod-like supermicelles with radii of approximately 75 nm. The self-assembling N-alkyl amides partition between themselves and the CB2 receptor, and aggregation of N-alkyl amides thus determines their in vitro pharmacological effects. Molecular mechanics by Monte Carlo simulations of the aggregation process support the experimental data, suggesting that both 1 and 2 can readily aggregate into premicelles, but only 1 spontaneously assembles into larger aggregates. These findings have important implications for biological studies with this class of compounds.

Parentage analysis with genetic markers in natural populations. I. The expected proportion of offspring with unambiguous paternity.

Recent studies indicate that polymorphic genetic markers are potentially helpful in resolving genealogical relationships among individuals in a natural population. Genetic data provide opportunities for paternity exclusion when genotypic incompatibilities are observed among individuals, and the present investigation examines the resolving power of genetic markers in unambiguous positive determination of paternity. Under the assumption that the mother for each offspring in a population is unambiguously known, an analytical expression for the fraction of males excluded from paternity is derived for the case where males and females may be derived from two different gene pools. This theoretical formulation can also be used to predict the fraction of births for each of which all but one male can be excluded from paternity. We show that even when the average probability of exclusion approaches unity, a substantial fraction of births yield equivocal mother-father-offspring determinations. The number of loci needed to increase the frequency of unambiguous determinations to a high level is beyond the scope of current electrophoretic studies in most species. Applications of this theory to electrophoretic data on Chamaelirium luteum (L.) shows that in 2255 offspring derived from 273 males and 70 females, only 57 triplets could be unequivocally determined with eight polymorphic protein loci, even though the average combined exclusionary power of these loci was 73%. The distribution of potentially compatible male parents, based on multilocus genotypes, was reasonably well predicted from the allele frequency data available for these loci. We demonstrate that genetic paternity analysis in natural populations cannot be reliably based on exclusionary principles alone. In order to measure the reproductive contributions of individuals in natural populations, more elaborate likelihood principles must be deployed.

Transport of 234U in the Opalinus Clay on centimetre to decimetre scales

The Opalinus Clay formation in North Switzerland is a potential host rock for a deep underground radioactive waste repository. The distribution of U-238, U-234 and Th-230 was studied in rock samples of the Opalinus Clay from an exploratory borehole at Benken (Canton of Zurich) using MC-ICP-MS. The aim of U-234 was to assess the in situ, long-term migration behaviour in this rock. Very low hydraulic conductivities of the Opalinus Clay, reducing potential of the pore water and its chemical equilibrium with the host rock are expected to render both U-238 and Th-230 immobile. If U is heterogeneously distributed in the Opalinus Clay, gradients in the supply of U-234 from the rock matrix to the pore water by the decay of U-238 will be established. Diffusive redistribution separates U-234 from its immobile parent U-238 resulting in bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity disequilibria. These may provide a means of estimating the mobility of U-234 in the rock if the diffusion rate of U-234 is significant compared to its decay rate. Sampling was carried out on two scales. Drilling of cm-spaced samples from the drill-core was done to study mobility over short distances and elucidate possible small-scale lithological control. Homogenized 25-cm-long portions of a 2-m-long drill-core section were prepared to provide information on transport over a longer distance. Variations in U and/or Th content on the cm-scale between clays and carbonate-sandy layers are revealed by beta-scanning, which shows that the (dominant) clay is richer in both elements. Samples were digested using aqua regia followed by total HF dissolution, yielding two fractions. in all studied samples U was found to be concentrated in the HF digestion fraction. It has a high U/Th ratio and a study by SEM-EDS points to sub-mu m up to several mu m in size zircon grains as the main U-rich phase. This fraction consistently has U-234/U-238 activity ratios below unity. The minute zircon grains constitute the major reservoir of U in the rock and act as constant rate suppliers of U-234 into the rock matrix and the pore water. The aqua regia leach fraction was found to be enriched in Th, and complementary to the HF fraction, having U-234/U-238 activity ratios above unity. It is believed that these U activity ratios reflect the surplus of having U-234 delivered from the zircon grains. Some cm-spaced samples show bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios that are markedly out of equilibrium. In most of them a striking negative correlation between the total U content and the bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios is observed. This is interpreted to indicate net U-234 transfer from regions of higher supply of U-234 towards those of lower supply which is, in most cases, equivalent to transfer from clayey towards carbonate/sandy portions of the rock. In contrast, the 25 cm averaged samples all have uniform bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios in equilibrium, indicating U immobility in the last 1-1.5 Ma on this spatial scale. It is concluded that the small-scale lithological variations which govern U spatial distribution in the Opalinus Clay are the major factor determining U-234 in situ supply rates, regulating its diffusive fluxes and controlling the observed bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios. A simple box-model is presented to simulate the measured bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios and to give an additional insight into the studied system. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computational selection of inhibitors of Abeta aggregation and neuronal toxicity.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is characterized by the cerebral accumulation of misfolded and aggregated amyloid-beta protein (Abeta). Disease symptoms can be alleviated, in vitro and in vivo, by 'beta-sheet breaker' pentapeptides that reduce plaque load. However the peptide nature of these compounds, made them biologically unstable and unable to penetrate membranes with high efficiency. The main goal of this study was to use computational methods to identify small molecule mimetics with better drug-like properties. For this purpose, the docked conformations of the active peptides were used to identify compounds with similar activities. A series of related beta-sheet breaker peptides were docked to solid state NMR structures of a fibrillar form of Abeta. The lowest energy conformations of the active peptides were used to design three dimensional (3D)-pharmacophores, suitable for screening the NCI database with Unity. Small molecular weight compounds with physicochemical features and a conformation similar to the active peptides were selected, ranked by docking and biochemical parameters. Of 16 diverse compounds selected for experimental screening, 2 prevented and reversed Abeta aggregation at 2-3microM concentration, as measured by Thioflavin T (ThT) fluorescence and ELISA assays. They also prevented the toxic effects of aggregated Abeta on neuroblastoma cells. Their low molecular weight and aqueous solubility makes them promising lead compounds for treating AD.

Elemental and Lead Isotopic Data of Copper Finds from the Singen Cemetery, Germany – a Methodological Approach to Investigate Early Bronze Age Trade Networks

We report a trace element - Pb isotope analytical (LIA) database on the "Singen Copper", a peculiar type of copper found in the North Alpine realm, from its type locality, the Early Bronze Age Singen Cemetery (Germany). What distinguishes “Singen Copper” from other coeval copper types? (i) is it a discrete metal lot with a uniform provenance (if so, can its provenance be constrained)? (ii) was it manufactured by a special, unique metallurgical process that can be discriminated from others? Trace element concentrations can give clues on the ore types that were mined, but they can be modified (more or less intentionally) by metallurgical operations. A more robust indicator are the ratios of chemically similar elements (e.g. Co/Ni, Bi/Sb, etc.), since they should remain nearly constant during metallurgical operations, and are expected to behave homogeneously in each mineral of a given mining area, but their partition amongst the different mineral species is known to cause strong inter-element fractionations. We tested the trace element ratio pattern predicted by geochemical arguments on the Brixlegg mining area. Brixlegg itself is not compatible with the Singen Copper objects, and we only report it because it is a rare instance of a mining area for which sufficient trace element analyses are available in the literature. We observe that As/Sb in fahlerz varies by a factor 1.8 above/below median; As/Sb in enargite varies by a factor of 2.5 with a 10 times higher median. Most of the 102 analyzed metal objects from Singen are Sb-Ni-rich, corresponding to “antimony-nickel copper” of the literature. Other trace element concentrations vary by > 100 times, ratios by factors > 50. Pb isotopic compositions are all significantly different from each other. They do not form a single linear array and require > 3 ore batches that certainly do not derive from one single mining area. Our data suggest a heterogeneous provenance of “Singen copper”. Archaeological information limits the scope to Central European sources. LIA requires a diverse supply network from many mining localities, including possibly Brittany. Trace element ratios show more heterogeneity than LIA; this can be explained either by deliberate selection of one particular ore mineral (from very many sources) or by processing of assorted ore minerals from a smaller number of sources, with the unintentional effect that the quality of the copper would not be constant, as the metallurgical properties of alloys would vary with trace element concentrations.

Oxygenated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and azaarenes in urban soils: A comparison of a tropical city (Bangkok) with two temperate cities (Bratislava and Gothenburg)

Environmental conditions in the tropics favor the formation of polar polycyclic aromatic compound (polar PACs, such as oxygenated PAHs [OPAHs] and azaarenes [AZAs]), but little is known about these hazardous compounds in tropical soils. The objectives of this work were to determine (i) the level of contamination of soils (0–5 and 5–10 cm layers) from the tropical metropolis of Bangkok (Thailand) with OPAHs and AZAs and (ii) the influence of urban emission sources and soil properties on the distribution of PACs. We hypothesized that the higher solar insolation and microbial activity in the tropics than in the temperate zone will lead to enhanced secondary formation of OPAHs. Hence, OPAH to related parent-PAH ratios will be higher in the tropical soils of Bangkok than in temperate soils of Bratislava and Gothenburg. The concentrations of ∑15OPAHs (range: 12–269 ng g−1) and ∑4AZAs (0.1–31 ng g−1) measured in soils of Bangkok were lower than those in several cities of the industrialized temperate zone. The ∑15OPAHs (r = 0.86, p < 0.01) and ∑4AZAs (r = 0.67, p < 0.01) correlated significantly with those of ∑20PAHs highlighting similar sources and related fate. The octanol–water partition coefficient did not explain the transport to the subsoil, indicating soil mixing as the reason for the polar PAC load of the lower soil layer. Data on PAC concentrations in soils of Bratislava and Gothenburg were taken from published literature. The individual OPAH to parent-PAH ratios in soils of Bangkok were mostly higher than those of Bratislava and Gothenburg (e.g. 9-fluorenone/fluorene concentration ratio was 12.2 ± 6.7, 5.6 ± 2.4, and 0.7 ± 02 in Bangkok, Bratislava and Gothenburg soils, respectively) supporting the view that tropical environmental conditions and higher microbial activity likely lead to higher OPAH to parent-PAH ratios in tropical than in temperate soils.

Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa

The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.

Occupational exposure to magnetic fields and electric shocks and risk of ALS: The Swiss National Cohort

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has been associated with exposures in so-called 'electrical occupations'. It is unclear if this possible link may be explained by exposure to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF) or by electrical shocks. We evaluated ALS mortality in 2000-2008 and exposure to ELF-MF and electrical shocks in the Swiss National Cohort, using job exposure matrices for occupations at censuses 1990 and 2000. We compared 2.2 million workers with high or medium vs. low exposure to ELF-MF and electrical shocks using Cox proportional hazard models. Results showed that mortality from ALS was higher in people who had medium or high ELF-MF exposure in both censuses (HR 1.55 (95% CI 1.11-2.15)), but closer to unity for electrical shocks (HR 1.17 (95% CI 0.83-1.65)). When both exposures were included in the same model, the HR for ELF-MF changed little (HR 1.56), but the HR for electric shocks was attenuated to 0.97. In conclusion, there was an association between exposure to ELF-MF and mortality from ALS among workers with a higher likelihood of long-term exposure.