Nineteenth century narratives reveal historic catch rates for Australian snapper (Pagrus auratus)

Snapper (Pagrus auratus) is widely distributed throughout subtropical and temperate southern oceans and forms a significant recreational and commercial fishery in Queensland, Australia. Using data from government reports, media sources, popular publications and a government fisheries survey carried out in 1910, we compiled information on individual snapper fishing trips that took place prior to the commencement of fisherywide organized data collection, from 1871 to 1939. In addition to extracting all available quantitative data, we translated qualitative information into bounded estimates and used multiple imputation to handle missing values, forming 287 records for which catch rate (snapper fisher−1 h−1) could be derived. Uncertainty was handled through a parametric maximum likelihood framework (a transformed trivariate Gaussian), which facilitated statistical comparisons between data sources. No statistically significant differences in catch rates were found among media sources and the government fisheries survey. Catch rates remained stable throughout the time series, averaging 3.75 snapper fisher−1 h−1 (95% confidence interval, 3.42–4.09) as the fishery expanded into new grounds. In comparison, a contemporary (1993–2002) south-east Queensland charter fishery produced an average catch rate of 0.4 snapper fisher−1 h−1 (95% confidence interval, 0.31–0.58). These data illustrate the productivity of a fishery during its earliest years of development and represent the earliest catch rate data globally for this species. By adopting a formalized approach to address issues common to many historical records – missing data, a lack of quantitative information and reporting bias – our analysis demonstrates the potential for historical narratives to contribute to contemporary fisheries management.

Born leaders: Political selection and the relative age effect in the US Congress

We present substantial evidence for the existence of a bias in the distribution of births of leading US politicians in favour of those who were the eldest in their cohort at school. This result adds to the research on the long-term effects of relative age among peers at school. We discuss parametric and non-parametric tests to identify this effect, and we show that it is not driven by measurement error, redshirting or a sorting effect of highly educated parents. The magnitude of the effect that we estimate is larger than what other studies on ‘relative age effects’ have found for broader populations but is in general consistent with research that looks at professional sportsmen. We also find that relative age does not seem to correlate with the quality of elected politicians.

Bayesian synthetic likelihood

Having the ability to work with complex models can be highly beneficial, but the computational cost of doing so is often large. Complex models often have intractable likelihoods, so methods that directly use the likelihood function are infeasible. In these situations, the benefits of working with likelihood-free methods become apparent. Likelihood-free methods, such as parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood that uses the likelihood of an alternative parametric auxiliary model, have been explored throughout the literature as a good alternative when the model of interest is complex. One of these methods is called the synthetic likelihood (SL), which assumes a multivariate normal approximation to the likelihood of a summary statistic of interest. This paper explores the accuracy and computational efficiency of the Bayesian version of the synthetic likelihood (BSL) approach in comparison to a competitor known as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and its sensitivity to its tuning parameters and assumptions. We relate BSL to pseudo-marginal methods and propose to use an alternative SL that uses an unbiased estimator of the exact working normal likelihood when the summary statistic has a multivariate normal distribution. Several applications of varying complexity are considered to illustrate the findings of this paper.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

An analytical approach to the study of a class of bi-state social interaction processes

Sufficient conditions for obtaining an equivalent linear model to classes of non-linear, bi-state, social interaction processes are derived. These parametric constraints, when satisfied, permit analytical determination of the dynamics of the non-linear process of social interaction.

Interface between 2 dissimilar fluids beneath a sheetpile cofferdam

A closed form solution is presented for determining the shape and location of the interface between two dissimilar fluids (having different densities) when steady flow takes place through a homogeneous and isotropic porous medium, into a sheetpile cofferdam; the interface is assumed to be sharp and the lower fluid stationary. The solution is obtained using the inverse hodograph. Numerical results are presented in nondimensional form for various parametric conditions in the physical plane; the interface pattern, as also the seepage discharge and exit gradient distribution are shown. The critical conditions of the interface are studied.

Microbial communities in Pb contaminated boreal forest soil

Lead contamination in the environment is of particular concern, as it is a known toxin. Until recently, however, much less attention has been given to the local contamination caused by activities at shooting ranges compared to large-scale industrial contamination. In Finland, more than 500 tons of Pb is produced each year for shotgun ammunition. The contaminant threatens various organisms, ground water and the health of human populations. However, the forest at shooting ranges usually shows no visible sign of stress compared to nearby clean environments. The aboveground biota normally reflects the belowground ecosystem. Thus, the soil microbial communities appear to bear strong resistance to contamination, despite the influence of lead. The studies forming this thesis investigated a shooting range site at Hälvälä in Southern Finland, which is heavily contaminated by lead pellets. Previously it was experimentally shown that the growth of grasses and degradation of litter are retarded. Measurements of acute toxicity of the contaminated soil or soil extracts gave conflicting results, as enchytraeid worms used as toxicity reporters were strongly affected, while reporter bacteria showed no or very minor decreases in viability. Measurements using sensitive inducible luminescent reporter bacteria suggested that the bioavailability of lead in the soil is indeed low, and this notion was supported by the very low water extractability of the lead. Nevertheless, the frequency of lead-resistant cultivable bacteria was elevated based on the isolation of cultivable strains. The bacterial and fungal diversity in heavily lead contaminated shooting sectors were compared with those of pristine sections of the shooting range area. The bacterial 16S rRNA gene and fungal ITS rRNA gene were amplified, cloned and sequenced using total DNA extracted from the soil humus layer as the template. Altogether, 917 sequenced bacterial clones and 649 sequenced fungal clones revealed a high soil microbial diversity. No effect of lead contamination was found on bacterial richness or diversity, while fungal richness and diversity significantly differed between lead contaminated and clean control areas. However, even in the case of fungi, genera that were deemed sensitive were not totally absent from the contaminated area: only their relative frequency was significantly reduced. Some operational taxonomic units (OTUs) assigned to Basidiomycota were clearly affected, and were much rarer in the lead contaminated areas. The studies of this thesis surveyed EcM sporocarps, analyzed morphotyped EcM root tips by direct sequencing, and 454-pyrosequenced fungal communities in in-growth bags. A total of 32 EcM fungi that formed conspicuous sporocarps, 27 EcM fungal OTUs from 294 root tips, and 116 EcM fungal OTUs from a total of 8 194 ITS2 454 sequences were recorded. The ordination analyses by non-parametric multidimensional scaling (NMS) indicated that Pb enrichment induced a shift in the EcM community composition. This was visible as indicative trends in the sporocarp and root tip datasets, but explicitly clear in the communities observed in the in-growth bags. The compositional shift in the EcM community was mainly attributable to an increase in the frequencies of OTUs assigned to the genus Thelephora, and to a decrease in the OTUs assigned to Pseudotomentella, Suillus and Tylospora in Pb-contaminated areas when compared to the control. The enrichment of Thelephora in contaminated areas was also observed when examining the total fungal communities in soil using DNA cloning and sequencing technology. While the compositional shifts are clear, their functional consequences for the dominant trees or soil ecosystem remain undetermined. The results indicate that at the Hälvälä shooting range, lead influences the fungal communities but not the bacterial communities. The forest ecosystem shows apparent functional redundancy, since no significant effects were seen on forest trees. Recently, by means of 454 pyrosequencing , the amount of sequences in a single analysis run can be up to one million. It has been applied in microbial ecology studies to characterize microbial communities. The handling of sequence data with traditional programs is becoming difficult and exceedingly time consuming, and novel tools are needed to handle the vast amounts of data being generated. The field of microbial ecology has recently benefited from the availability of a number of tools for describing and comparing microbial communities using robust statistical methods. However, although these programs provide methods for rapid calculation, it has become necessary to make them more amenable to larger datasets and numbers of samples from pyrosequencing. As part of this thesis, a new program was developed, MuSSA (Multi-Sample Sequence Analyser), to handle sequence data from novel high-throughput sequencing approaches in microbial community analyses. The greatest advantage of the program is that large volumes of sequence data can be manipulated, and general OTU series with a frequency value can be calculated among a large number of samples.

Effects of mould filling on evolution of the solid-liquid interface during solidification

This work presents a numerical analysis of simultaneous mould filling and phase change for solidification in a two-dimensional rectangular cavity. The role of residual flow strength and temperature gradients within the solidifying domain, caused by the filling process, on the evolution of solidification interface are investigated. An implicit volume of fluid (VOF)-based algorithm has been employed for simulating the free surface flows during the filling process, while the model for solidification is based on a fixed-grid enthalpy-based control volume approach. Solidification modeling is coupled with VOF through User Defined Functions developed in the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code FLUENT 6.3.26. Comparison between results of the conventional analysis without filling effect and those of the present analysis shows that the residual flow resulting from the filling process significantly influences the progress of the solidification interface. A parametric study is also performed with variables such as cooling rate, filling velocity and filling configuration, in order to investigate the coupled effects of the buoyancy-driven flow and the residual flow on the solidification behavior.

Estimating specific yield and transmissivity with magnetic resonance sounding in an unconfined sandstone aquifer (Niger)

The unconfined aquifer of the Continental Terminal in Niger was investigated by magnetic resonance sounding (MRS) and by 14 pumping tests in order to improve calibration of MRS outputs at field scale. The reliability of the standard relationship used for estimating aquifer transmissivity by MRS was checked; it was found that the parametric factor can be estimated with an uncertainty a parts per thousand currency sign150% by a single point of calibration. The MRS water content (theta (MRS)) was shown to be positively correlated with the specific yield (Sy), and theta (MRS) always displayed higher values than Sy. A conceptual model was subsequently developed, based on estimated changes of the total porosity, Sy, and the specific retention Sr as a function of the median grain size. The resulting relationship between theta (MRS) and Sy showed a reasonably good fit with the experimental dataset, considering the inherent heterogeneity of the aquifer matrix (residual error is similar to 60%). Interpreted in terms of aquifer parameters, MRS data suggest a log-normal distribution of the permeability and a one-sided Gaussian distribution of Sy. These results demonstrate the efficiency of the MRS method for fast and low-cost prospection of hydraulic parameters for large unconfined aquifers.

Microbial diversity in the municipal composting process and development of detection methods

Composting refers to aerobic degradation of organic material and is one of the main waste treatment methods used in Finland for treating separated organic waste. The composting process allows converting organic waste to a humus-like end product which can be used to increase the organic matter in agricultural soils, in gardening, or in landscaping. Microbes play a key role as degraders during the composting-process, and the microbiology of composting has been studied for decades, but there are still open questions regarding the microbiota in industrial composting processes. It is known that with the traditional, culturing-based methods only a small fraction, below 1%, of the species in a sample is normally detected. In recent years an immense diversity of bacteria, fungi and archaea has been found to occupy many different environments. Therefore the methods of characterising microbes constantly need to be developed further. In this thesis the presence of fungi and bacteria in full-scale and pilot-scale composting processes was characterised with cloning and sequencing. Several clone libraries were constructed and altogether nearly 6000 clones were sequenced. The microbial communities detected in this study were found to differ from the compost microbes observed in previous research with cultivation based methods or with molecular methods from processes of smaller scale, although there were similarities as well. The bacterial diversity was high. Based on the non-parametric coverage estimations, the number of bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTU) in certain stages of composting was over 500. Sequences similar to Lactobacillus and Acetobacteria were frequently detected in the early stages of drum composting. In tunnel stages of composting the bacterial community comprised of Bacillus, Thermoactinomyces, Actinobacteria and Lactobacillus. The fungal diversity was found to be high and phylotypes similar to yeasts were abundantly found in the full-scale drum and tunnel processes. In addition to phylotypes similar to Candida, Pichia and Geotrichum moulds from genus Thermomyces and Penicillium were observed in tunnel stages of composting. Zygomycetes were detected in the pilot-scale composting processes and in the compost piles. In some of the samples there were a few abundant phylotypes present in the clone libraries that masked the rare ones. The rare phylotypes were of interest and a method for collecting them from clone libraries for sequencing was developed. With negative selection of the abundant phylotyps the rare ones were picked from the clone libraries. Thus 41% of the clones in the studied clone libraries were sequenced. Since microbes play a central role in composting and in many other biotechnological processes, rapid methods for characterization of microbial diversity would be of value, both scientifically and commercially. Current methods, however, lack sensitivity and specificity and are therefore under development. Microarrays have been used in microbial ecology for a decade to study the presence or absence of certain microbes of interest in a multiplex manner. The sequence database collected in this thesis was used as basis for probe design and microarray development. The enzyme assisted detection method, ligation-detection-reaction (LDR) based microarray, was adapted for species-level detection of microbes characteristic of each stage of the composting process. With the use of a specially designed control probe it was established that a species specific probe can detect target DNA representing as little as 0.04% of total DNA in a sample. The developed microarray can be used to monitor composting processes or the hygienisation of the compost end product. A large compost microbe sequence dataset was collected and analysed in this thesis. The results provide valuable information on microbial community composition during industrial scale composting processes. The microarray method was developed based on the sequence database collected in this study. The method can be utilised in following the fate of interesting microbes during composting process in an extremely sensitive and specific manner. The platform for the microarray is universal and the method can easily be adapted for studying microbes from environments other than compost.

Transfunctional living walls-designing living walls for environmental and social benefits

Greater attention is being directed towards incorporating greenery into the built environment as increasing global urbanisation drives the search for sustainable urbanism. This research takes a parametric approach to studying living wall dynamics using three methods to cover a diversity of design parameters and performance criteria. The findings led to a functional typology for living walls based on a range of design, context and performance parameters wider than previously identified. Such parametric studies offer valuable insights into 'transfunctional' living walls for homes, schools and public spaces.

Joint evaluation of multiple speech patterns for speech recognition and training

We are addressing the novel problem of jointly evaluating multiple speech patterns for automatic speech recognition and training. We propose solutions based on both the non-parametric dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm, and the parametric hidden Markov model (HMM). We show that a hybrid approach is quite effective for the application of noisy speech recognition. We extend the concept to HMM training wherein some patterns may be noisy or distorted. Utilizing the concept of ``virtual pattern'' developed for joint evaluation, we propose selective iterative training of HMMs. Evaluating these algorithms for burst/transient noisy speech and isolated word recognition, significant improvement in recognition accuracy is obtained using the new algorithms over those which do not utilize the joint evaluation strategy.

A note on fractal dimensions of biomedical waveforms

In this paper, we study performance of Katz method of computing fractal dimension of waveforms, and its estimation accuracy is compared with Higuchi's method. The study is performed on four synthetic parametric fractal waveforms for which true fractal dimensions can be calculated, and real sleep electroencephalogram. The dependence of Katz's fractal dimension on amplitude, frequency and sampling frequency of waveforms is noted. Even though the Higuchi's method has given more accurate estimation of fractal dimensions, the study suggests that the results of Katz's based fractal dimension analysis of biomedical waveforms have to be carefully interpreted.

CFD analysis of high frequency miniature pulse tube refrigerators for space applications with thermal non-equilibrium model

High frequency, miniature, pulse tube cryocoolers are extensively used in space applications because of their simplicity. Parametric studies of inertance type pulse tube cooler are performed with different length-to-diameter ratios of the pulse tube with the help of the FLUENT (R) package. The local thermal non-equilibrium of the gas and the matrix is taken into account for the modeling of porous zones, in addition to the wall thickness of the components. Dynamic characteristics and the actual mechanism of energy transfer in pulse are examined with the help of the pulse tube wall time constant. The heat interaction between pulse tube wall and the oscillating gas, leading to surface heat pumping, is quantified. The axial heat conduction is found to reduce the performance of the pulse tube refrigerator. The thermal non-equilibrium predicts a higher cold heat exchanger temperature compared to thermal equilibrium. The pressure drop through the porous medium has a strong non-linear effect due to the dominating influence of Forchheimer term over that of the linear Darcy term at high operating frequencies. The phase angle relationships among the pressure, temperature and the mass flow rate in the porous zones are also important in determining the performance of pulse tuberefrigerator.

A numerical study of projectile impact on thin aluminium plates

This article deals with a simulation-based Study of the impact of projectiles on thin aluminium plates using LS-DYNA by modelling plates with shell elements and projectiles with solid elements. In order to establish the required modelling criterion in terms of element size for aluminium plates, a convergence Study of residual velocity has been carried Out by varying mesh density in the impact zone. Using the preferred material and meshing criteria arrived at here, extremely good prediction of test residual velocities and ballistic limits given by Gupta et al. (2001) for thin aluminium plates has been obtained. The simulation-based pattern of failure with localized bulging and jagged edge of perforation is similar to the perforation with petalling seen in tests. A number Of simulation-based parametric studies have been carried out and results consistent with published test data have been obtained. Despite the robust correlation achieved against published experimental results, it would be prudent to conduct one's own experiments, for a final correlation via the present modelling procedure and analysis with the explicit LS-DYNTA 970 solver. Hence, a sophisticated ballistic impact testing facility and a high-speed camera have been used to conduct additional tests on grade 1100 aluminium plates of 1 mm thickness with projectiles Of four different nose shapes. Finally, using the developed numerical simulation procedure, an excellent correlation of residual velocity and failure modes with the corresponding test results has been obtained.