A regionally informed abundance index for supporting integrative analyses across butterfly monitoring schemes

1. The rapid expansion of systematic monitoring schemes necessitates robust methods to reliably assess species' status and trends. Insect monitoring poses a challenge where there are strong seasonal patterns, requiring repeated counts to reliably assess abundance. Butterfly monitoring schemes (BMSs) operate in an increasing number of countries with broadly the same methodology, yet they differ in their observation frequency and in the methods used to compute annual abundance indices. 2. Using simulated and observed data, we performed an extensive comparison of two approaches used to derive abundance indices from count data collected via BMS, under a range of sampling frequencies. Linear interpolation is most commonly used to estimate abundance indices from seasonal count series. A second method, hereafter the regional generalized additive model (GAM), fits a GAM to repeated counts within sites across a climatic region. For the two methods, we estimated bias in abundance indices and the statistical power for detecting trends, given different proportions of missing counts. We also compared the accuracy of trend estimates using systematically degraded observed counts of the Gatekeeper Pyronia tithonus (Linnaeus 1767). 3. The regional GAM method generally outperforms the linear interpolation method. When the proportion of missing counts increased beyond 50%, indices derived via the linear interpolation method showed substantially higher estimation error as well as clear biases, in comparison to the regional GAM method. The regional GAM method also showed higher power to detect trends when the proportion of missing counts was substantial. 4. Synthesis and applications. Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within-year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.

Understanding advances in the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a numerical weather prediction model.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the Trop- ics. It can be characterised as a planetary-scale coupling between the atmospheric circulation and organised deep convection that propagates east through the equatorial Indo-Pacific region. The MJO interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale and is a crucial source of predictability for weather forecasts on medium to seasonal timescales. Despite its global signifi- cance, accurately representing the MJO in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models remains a challenge. This thesis focuses on the representation of the MJO in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), a state-of-the-art NWP model. Recent modifications to the model physics in Cycle 32r3 (Cy32r3) of the IFS led to ad- vances in the simulation of the MJO; for the first time the observed amplitude of the MJO was maintained throughout the integration period. A set of hindcast experiments, which differ only in their formulation of convection, have been performed between May 2008 and April 2009 to asses the sensitivity of MJO simulation in the IFS to the Cy32r3 convective parameterization. Unique to this thesis is the attribution of the advances in MJO simulation in Cy32r3 to the mod- ified convective parameterization, specifically, the relative-humidity-dependent formulation for or- ganised deep entrainment. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmen- tal moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid-troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation-moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the transition to deep convection. Results from this thesis suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the physics and large-scale circulation associated with the MJO.

Proxy re-encryption schemes for IoT and crowd sensing

IoT, crowd sensing and smart cities will be a traffic challenge. New communication paradigms as asynchronous messaging carry and forward, scheduled delivery and temporary storage will be needed to manage network resources dynamically. Since traditional end to end security will require keeping security associations among devices for a long time draining valuable resources, we propose and evaluate the use of proxy re-encryption protocols in these scenarios as a solution for reliable and flexible security.

Essays on robust portfolio selection and pension finance

This thesis examines three different, but related problems in the broad area of portfolio management for long-term institutional investors, and focuses mainly on the case of pension funds. The first idea (Chapter 3) is the application of a novel numerical technique – robust optimization – to a real-world pension scheme (the Universities Superannuation Scheme, USS) for first time. The corresponding empirical results are supported by many robustness checks and several benchmarks such as the Bayes-Stein and Black-Litterman models that are also applied for first time in a pension ALM framework, the Sharpe and Tint model and the actual USS asset allocations. The second idea presented in Chapter 4 is the investigation of whether the selection of the portfolio construction strategy matters in the SRI industry, an issue of great importance for long term investors. This study applies a variety of optimal and naïve portfolio diversification techniques to the same SRI-screened universe, and gives some answers to the question of which portfolio strategies tend to create superior SRI portfolios. Finally, the third idea (Chapter 5) compares the performance of a real-world pension scheme (USS) before and after the recent major changes in the pension rules under different dynamic asset allocation strategies and the fixed-mix portfolio approach and quantifies the redistributive effects between various stakeholders. Although this study deals with a specific pension scheme, the methodology can be applied by other major pension schemes in countries such as the UK and USA that have changed their rules.

Farmer attitudes and livestock disease: exploring citizenship behaviour and peer monitoring across two BVD control schemes in the UK

The eradication of BVD in the UK is technically possible but appears to be socially untenable. The following study explored farmer attitudes to BVD control schemes in relation to advice networks and information sharing, shared aims and goals, motivation and benefits of membership, notions of BVD as a priority disease and attitudes toward regulation. Two concepts from the organisational management literature framed the study: citizenship behaviour where actions of individuals support the collective good (but are not explicitly recognised as such) and peer to peer monitoring (where individuals evaluate other’s behaviour). Farmers from two BVD control schemes in the UK participated in the study: Orkney Livestock Association BVD Eradication Scheme and Norfolk and Suffolk Cattle Breeders Association BVD Eradication Scheme. In total 162 farmers participated in the research (109 in-scheme and 53 out of scheme). The findings revealed that group helping and information sharing among scheme members was low with a positive BVD status subject to social censure. Peer monitoring in the form of gossip with regard to the animal health status of other farms was high. Interestingly, farmers across both schemes supported greater regulation with regard to animal health, largely due to the mistrust of fellow farmers following voluntary disease control measures. While group cohesiveness varied across the two schemes, without continued financial inducements, longer-term sustainability is questionable

THE CO-INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE COASTAL UPWELLING AT CABO FRIO: A NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION USING COUPLED MODELS

A coupled atmospheric-oceanic model was used to investigate whether there is a positive feedback between the coastal upwelling and the sea breeze at Cabo Frio - RJ (Brazil). Two experiments were performed to ascertain the influence of the sea breeze on the coastal upwelling: the first one used the coupled model forced with synoptic NE winds of 8 m s(-1) and the sign of the sea breeze circulation was set by the atmospheric model; the second experiment used only the oceanic model with constant 8 m s(-1) NE winds. Then, to study the influence of the coastal upwelling on the sea breeze, two more experiments were performed: one using a coastal upwelling representative SST initial field and the other one using a constant and homogeneous SST field of 26 degrees C. Finally, two more experiments were conducted to verify the influence of the topography and the spatial distribution of the sea surface temperature on the previous results. The results showed that the sea breeze can intensify the coastal upwelling, but the coastal upwelling does not intensify the sea breeze circulation, suggesting that there is no positive feedback between these two phenomena at Cabo Frio.

The role of convective parameterization in the simulation of a cyclone over the South Atlantic

Numerical simulations are carried out to examine the role of the Kuo and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization schemes and dry dynamics on a cyclone development, in a weak baroclinic atmosphere, over subtropical South Atlantic Ocean. The initial phase of the cyclone development is investigated with a coarse horizontal mesh (75 km) and when the cyclone reaches the mature stage two different horizontal resolutions are used (75 and 25 km). The best performance simulation for the cyclone initial phase occurs when the Kuo convective scheme is applied, and this may be attributed to a greater diabatic warming in the troposphere. On the other hand, the dry simulation is not capable of simulating the correct location and intensity of the cyclone in its initial phase. During the mature phase, a cyclone over deepening occurs in the Kuo scheme experiment associated with larger latent heat release in a deep vertical column. The presence of downdraft currents in the KF scheme, which acts to cool and dry the lower levels, is essential to stabilize the atmosphere and to reproduce the nearest observation cyclone deepening rate. The largest cyclone deepening is found in the Kuo scheme high resolution experiment. This suggests that the KF convective scheme is less sensitive to the horizontal grid resolution. It was also revealed that the diabatic processes are crucial to simulate the observed features of this marine cyclone over subtropical region.

A numerical investigation of the atmosphere-ocean thermal contrast over the coastal upwelling region of Cabo Frio, Brazil

An one-dimensional atmospheric second order closure model, coupled to an oceanic mixed layer model, is used to investigate the short term variation of the atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers in the coastal upwelling area of Cabo Frio, Brazil (23 degrees S, 42 degrees 08`W). The numerical simulations were carried out to evaluate the impact caused by the thermal contrast between atmosphere and ocean on the vertical extent and other properties of both atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers. The numerical simulations were designed taking as reference the observations carried out during the passage of a cold front that disrupted the upwelling regime in Cabo Frio in July of 1992. The simulations indicated that in 10 hours the mechanical mixing, sustained by a constant background flow of 10 in s(-1), increases the atmospheric boundary layer in 214 in when the atmosphere is initially 2 K warmer than the ocean (positive thermal contrast observed during upwelling regime). For an atmosphere initially -2 K colder than the ocean (negative thermal contrast observed during passage of the cold front), the incipient thermal convection intensifies the mechanical mixing increasing the vertical extent of the atmospheric boundary layer in 360 in. The vertical evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer is consistent with the observations carried out in Cabo Frio during upwelling condition. When the upwelling is disrupted, the discrepancy between the simulated and observed atmospheric boundary layer heights in Cabo Frio during July of 1992 increases considerably. During the period of 10 hours, the simulated oceanic mixed layer deepens 2 in and 5.4 in for positive and negative thermal contrasts of 2 K and -2 K, respectively. In the latter case, the larger vertical extent of the oceanic mixed layer is due to the presence of thermal convection in the atmospheric boundary layer, which in turn is associated to the absence of upwelling caused by the passage of cold fronts in Cabo Frio.

Revisiting 2D numerical models for the 19th century outbursts of eta Carinae

We present here new results of two-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of the eruptive events of the 1840s (the great) and the 1890s (the minor) eruptions suffered by the massive star eta Carinae (Car). The two bipolar nebulae commonly known as the Homunculus and the little Homunculus (LH) were formed from the interaction of these eruptive events with the underlying stellar wind. We assume here an interacting, non-spherical multiple-phase wind scenario to explain the shape and the kinematics of both Homunculi, but adopt a more realistic parametrization of the phases of the wind. During the 1890s eruptive event, the outflow speed decreased for a short period of time. This fact suggests that the LH is formed when the eruption ends, from the impact of the post-outburst eta Car wind (that follows the 1890s event) with the eruptive flow (rather than by the collision of the eruptive flow with the pre-outburst wind, as claimed in previous models; Gonzalez et al.). Our simulations reproduce quite well the shape and the observed expansion speed of the large Homunculus. The LH (which is embedded within the large Homunculus) becomes Rayleigh-Taylor unstable and develop filamentary structures that resemble the spatial features observed in the polar caps. In addition, we find that the interior cavity between the two Homunculi is partially filled by material that is expelled during the decades following the great eruption. This result may be connected with the observed double-shell structure in the polar lobes of the eta Car nebula. Finally, as in previous work, we find the formation of tenuous, equatorial, high-speed features that seem to be related to the observed equatorial skirt of eta Car.

THREE-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF MAGNETIZED WINDS OF SOLAR-LIKE STARS

By means of self-consistent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) numerical simulations, we analyze magnetized solar-like stellar winds and their dependence on the plasma-beta parameter (the ratio between thermal and magnetic energy densities). This is the first study to perform such analysis solving the fully ideal three-dimensional MHD equations. We adopt in our simulations a heating parameter described by gamma, which is responsible for the thermal acceleration of the wind. We analyze winds with polar magnetic field intensities ranging from 1 to 20 G. We show that the wind structure presents characteristics that are similar to the solar coronal wind. The steady-state magnetic field topology for all cases is similar, presenting a configuration of helmet streamer-type, with zones of closed field lines and open field lines coexisting. Higher magnetic field intensities lead to faster and hotter winds. For the maximum magnetic intensity simulated of 20 G and solar coronal base density, the wind velocity reaches values of similar to 1000 km s(-1) at r similar to 20r(0) and a maximum temperature of similar to 6 x 10(6) K at r similar to 6r(0). The increase of the field intensity generates a larger ""dead zone"" in the wind, i.e., the closed loops that inhibit matter to escape from latitudes lower than similar to 45 degrees extend farther away from the star. The Lorentz force leads naturally to a latitude-dependent wind. We show that by increasing the density and maintaining B(0) = 20 G the system recover back to slower and cooler winds. For a fixed gamma, we show that the key parameter in determining the wind velocity profile is the beta-parameter at the coronal base. Therefore, there is a group of magnetized flows that would present the same terminal velocity despite its thermal and magnetic energy densities, as long as the plasma-beta parameter is the same. This degeneracy, however, can be removed if we compare other physical parameters of the wind, such as the mass-loss rate. We analyze the influence of gamma in our results and we show that it is also important in determining the wind structure.

Comparative chromosomal analyses in species of the genus Pimelodella (Siluriformes, Heptapteridae): occurrence of structural and numerical polymorphisms

Cytogenetic analyses were carried out in five species of Pimelodella from the main sub-basins of Upper Parana River and Paraiba do Sul River. The diploid number ranged from 2n = 46 to 2n = 58 chromosomes, and all populations differed in the karyotype constitution. The presence of supernumerary chromosomes as well as the occurrence of a XX/XY sex chromosome system and heterochromatin polymorphisms were detected. The 18S rDNA FISH confirmed the presence of single NORs and revealed additional sites on supernumerary chromosomes. The number and location of 5S rDNA sites were variable. Aspects related to the karyotypic evolution within the genus are discussed.

Numerical prediction of three-dimensional time-dependent viscoelastic extrudate swell using differential and algebraic models

This study investigates the numerical simulation of three-dimensional time-dependent viscoelastic free surface flows using the Upper-Convected Maxwell (UCM) constitutive equation and an algebraic explicit model. This investigation was carried out to develop a simplified approach that can be applied to the extrudate swell problem. The relevant physics of this flow phenomenon is discussed in the paper and an algebraic model to predict the extrudate swell problem is presented. It is based on an explicit algebraic representation of the non-Newtonian extra-stress through a kinematic tensor formed with the scaled dyadic product of the velocity field. The elasticity of the fluid is governed by a single transport equation for a scalar quantity which has dimension of strain rate. Mass and momentum conservations, and the constitutive equation (UCM and algebraic model) were solved by a three-dimensional time-dependent finite difference method. The free surface of the fluid was modeled using a marker-and-cell approach. The algebraic model was validated by comparing the numerical predictions with analytic solutions for pipe flow. In comparison with the classical UCM model, one advantage of this approach is that computational workload is substantially reduced: the UCM model employs six differential equations while the algebraic model uses only one. The results showed stable flows with very large extrudate growths beyond those usually obtained with standard differential viscoelastic models. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A geometric mass-preserving redistancing scheme for the level set function

In this paper we describe and evaluate a geometric mass-preserving redistancing procedure for the level set function on general structured grids. The proposed algorithm is adapted from a recent finite element-based method and preserves the mass by means of a localized mass correction. A salient feature of the scheme is the absence of adjustable parameters. The algorithm is tested in two and three spatial dimensions and compared with the widely used partial differential equation (PDE)-based redistancing method using structured Cartesian grids. Through the use of quantitative error measures of interest in level set methods, we show that the overall performance of the proposed geometric procedure is better than PDE-based reinitialization schemes, since it is more robust with comparable accuracy. We also show that the algorithm is well-suited for the highly stretched curvilinear grids used in CFD simulations. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Numerical solution of the eXtended Pom-Pom model for viscoelastic free surface flows

In this paper we present a finite difference method for solving two-dimensional viscoelastic unsteady free surface flows governed by the single equation version of the eXtended Pom-Pom (XPP) model. The momentum equations are solved by a projection method which uncouples the velocity and pressure fields. We are interested in low Reynolds number flows and, to enhance the stability of the numerical method, an implicit technique for computing the pressure condition on the free surface is employed. This strategy is invoked to solve the governing equations within a Marker-and-Cell type approach while simultaneously calculating the correct normal stress condition on the free surface. The numerical code is validated by performing mesh refinement on a two-dimensional channel flow. Numerical results include an investigation of the influence of the parameters of the XPP equation on the extrudate swelling ratio and the simulation of the Barus effect for XPP fluids. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulation of the liquid phase in SnO(2) thin film deposition by sol-gel-dip-coating

The fluid flow of the liquid phase in the sol-gel-dip-coating process for SnO(2) thin film deposition is numerically simulated. This calculation yields useful information on the velocity distribution close to the substrate, where the film is deposited. The fluid modeling is done by assuming Newtonian behavior, since the linear relation between shear stress and velocity gradient is observed. Besides, very low viscosities are used. The fluid governing equations are the Navier-Stokes in the two dimensional form, discretized by the finite difference technique. Results of optical transmittance and X-ray diffraction on films obtained from colloidal suspensions with regular viscosity, confirm the substrate base as the thickest part of the film, as inferred from the numerical simulation. In addition, as the viscosity increases, the fluid acquires more uniform velocity distribution close to the substrate, leading to more homogenous and uniform films.