Assimilation of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite data in a regional numerical weather prediction model using a one-dimensional variational approach

The quality of temperature and humidity retrievals from the infrared SEVIRI sensors on the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites is assessed by means of a one dimensional variational algorithm. The study is performed with the aim of improving the spatial and temporal resolution of available observations to feed analysis systems designed for high resolution regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The non-hydrostatic forecast model COSMO (COnsortium for Small scale MOdelling) in the ARPA-SIM operational configuration is used to provide background fields. Only clear sky observations over sea are processed. An optimised 1D–VAR set-up comprising of the two water vapour and the three window channels is selected. It maximises the reduction of errors in the model backgrounds while ensuring ease of operational implementation through accurate bias correction procedures and correct radiative transfer simulations. The 1D–VAR retrieval quality is firstly quantified in relative terms employing statistics to estimate the reduction in the background model errors. Additionally the absolute retrieval accuracy is assessed comparing the analysis with independent radiosonde and satellite observations. The inclusion of satellite data brings a substantial reduction in the warm and dry biases present in the forecast model. Moreover it is shown that the retrieval profiles generated by the 1D–VAR are well correlated with the radiosonde measurements. Subsequently the 1D–VAR technique is applied to two three–dimensional case–studies: a false alarm case–study occurred in Friuli–Venezia–Giulia on the 8th of July 2004 and a heavy precipitation case occurred in Emilia–Romagna region between 9th and 12th of April 2005. The impact of satellite data for these two events is evaluated in terms of increments in the integrated water vapour and saturation water vapour over the column, in the 2 meters temperature and specific humidity and in the surface temperature. To improve the 1D–VAR technique a method to calculate flow–dependent model error covariance matrices is also assessed. The approach employs members from an ensemble forecast system generated by perturbing physical parameterisation schemes inside the model. The improved set–up applied to the case of 8th of July 2004 shows a substantial neutral impact.

An adaptive solar radiation numerical model

[EN]A numerical model for the evaluation of solar radiation in different locations is presented. The solar radiation model is implemented taking into account the terrain surface using two-dimensional adaptive meshes of triangles that are constructed using a refinement/derefinement procedure in accordance with the variations of terrain surface and albedo. The selected methodology defines the terrain characteristics with a minimum number of points so that the computational cost is reduced for a given accuracy. The model can be used in atmospheric sciences as well as in other fields such as electrical engineering, since it allows the user to find the optimal location for maximum power generation in photovoltaic or solar thermal power plants...

Two-dimensional numerical approach for the vibration isolation analysis on thin walled wave barriers in poroelastic soils.

[EN]This paper is concerned with the vibration isolation efficiency analysis of total or partially buried thin walled wave barriers in poroelastic soils. A two-dimensional time harmonic model that treats soils and structures in a direct way by combining appropriately the conventional Boundary Element Method (BEM), the Dual BEM (DBEM) and the Finite Element Method es developed to this aim.

Numerical simulations of magma chamber dynamics at Campi Flegrei, and associated seismicity, deformation and gravity changes

Understanding the complex relationships between quantities measured by volcanic monitoring network and shallow magma processes is a crucial headway for the comprehension of volcanic processes and a more realistic evaluation of the associated hazard. This question is very relevant at Campi Flegrei, a volcanic quiescent caldera immediately north-west of Napoli (Italy). The system activity shows a high fumarole release and periodic ground slow movement (bradyseism) with high seismicity. This activity, with the high people density and the presence of military and industrial buildings, makes Campi Flegrei one of the areas with higher volcanic hazard in the world. In such a context my thesis has been focused on magma dynamics due to the refilling of shallow magma chambers, and on the geophysical signals detectable by seismic, deformative and gravimetric monitoring networks that are associated with this phenomenologies. Indeed, the refilling of magma chambers is a process frequently occurring just before a volcanic eruption; therefore, the faculty of identifying this dynamics by means of recorded signal analysis is important to evaluate the short term volcanic hazard. The space-time evolution of dynamics due to injection of new magma in the magma chamber has been studied performing numerical simulations with, and implementing additional features in, the code GALES (Longo et al., 2006), recently developed and still on the upgrade at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in Pisa (Italy). GALES is a finite element code based on a physico-mathematical two dimensional, transient model able to treat fluids as multiphase homogeneous mixtures, compressible to incompressible. The fundamental equations of mass, momentum and energy balance are discretised both in time and space using the Galerkin Least-Squares and discontinuity-capturing stabilisation technique. The physical properties of the mixture are computed as a function of local conditions of magma composition, pressure and temperature.The model features enable to study a broad range of phenomenologies characterizing pre and sin-eruptive magma dynamics in a wide domain from the volcanic crater to deep magma feeding zones. The study of displacement field associated with the simulated fluid dynamics has been carried out with a numerical code developed by the Geophysical group at the University College Dublin (O’Brien and Bean, 2004b), with whom we started a very profitable collaboration. In this code, the seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous media with free surface (e.g. the Earth’s surface) is simulated using a discrete elastic lattice where particle interactions are controlled by the Hooke’s law. This method allows to consider medium heterogeneities and complex topography. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations have been defined within a coordinate project (INGV-DPC 2004-06 V3_2 “Research on active volcanoes, precursors, scenarios, hazard and risk - Campi Flegrei”), to which this thesis contributes, and many researchers experienced on Campi Flegrei in volcanological, seismic, petrological, geochemical fields, etc. collaborate. Numerical simulations of magma and rock dynamis have been coupled as described in the thesis. The first part of the thesis consists of a parametric study aimed at understanding the eect of the presence in magma of carbon dioxide in magma in the convection dynamics. Indeed, the presence of this volatile was relevant in many Campi Flegrei eruptions, including some eruptions commonly considered as reference for a future activity of this volcano. A set of simulations considering an elliptical magma chamber, compositionally uniform, refilled from below by a magma with volatile content equal or dierent from that of the resident magma has been performed. To do this, a multicomponent non-ideal magma saturation model (Papale et al., 2006) that considers the simultaneous presence of CO2 and H2O, has been implemented in GALES. Results show that the presence of CO2 in the incoming magma increases its buoyancy force promoting convection ad mixing. The simulated dynamics produce pressure transients with frequency and amplitude in the sensitivity range of modern geophysical monitoring networks such as the one installed at Campi Flegrei . In the second part, simulations more related with the Campi Flegrei volcanic system have been performed. The simulated system has been defined on the basis of conditions consistent with the bulk of knowledge of Campi Flegrei and in particular of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (4100 B.P.), commonly considered as reference for a future high intensity eruption in this area. The magmatic system has been modelled as a long dyke refilling a small shallow magma chamber; magmas with trachytic and phonolitic composition and variable volatile content of H2O and CO2 have been considered. The simulations have been carried out changing the condition of magma injection, the system configuration (magma chamber geometry, dyke size) and the resident and refilling magma composition and volatile content, in order to study the influence of these factors on the simulated dynamics. Simulation results allow to follow each step of the gas-rich magma ascent in the denser magma, highlighting the details of magma convection and mixing. In particular, the presence of more CO2 in the deep magma results in more ecient and faster dynamics. Through this simulations the variation of the gravimetric field has been determined. Afterward, the space-time distribution of stress resulting from numerical simulations have been used as boundary conditions for the simulations of the displacement field imposed by the magmatic dynamics on rocks. The properties of the simulated domain (rock density, P and S wave velocities) have been based on data from literature on active and passive tomographic experiments, obtained through a collaboration with A. Zollo at the Dept. of Physics of the Federici II Univeristy in Napoli. The elasto-dynamics simulations allow to determine the variations of the space-time distribution of deformation and the seismic signal associated with the studied magmatic dynamics. In particular, results show that these dynamics induce deformations similar to those measured at Campi Flegrei and seismic signals with energies concentrated on the typical frequency bands observed in volcanic areas. The present work shows that an approach based on the solution of equations describing the physics of processes within a magmatic fluid and the surrounding rock system is able to recognise and describe the relationships between geophysical signals detectable on the surface and deep magma dynamics. Therefore, the results suggest that the combined study of geophysical data and informations from numerical simulations can allow in a near future a more ecient evaluation of the short term volcanic hazard.

Solar radiation estimation using a numerical model

[EN]A solar radiation numerical model is presented. It is intented to be useful for different purposes like the evaluation of the suitability of possible locations for solar power stations. This model allows the user to evaluate the radiation values in any location easily, and estimate the solar power generation taking into account not only the radiation level, but also the terrain surface conditions considering the cast shadows. The solar radiation model is implemented taking into account the terrain surface using 2-D adaptive meshes of triangles, which are constructed using a refinement/derefinement procedure in accordance with the variations of terrain surface and albedo...

Application of numerical methods to earthquake stability assessment of slopes

Questo documento descrive gran parte del lavoro svolto durante un periodo di studio di sei mesi all’International Centre for Geohazards (ICG) di Oslo. Seguendo la linea guida dettata nel titolo, sono stati affrontati diversi aspetti riguardanti la modellazione numerica dei pendii quali l’influenza delle condizioni al contorno e delle proporzioni del modello, la back-analysis di eventi di scivolamento e l’applicazione delle analisi di stabilità monodimensionali. La realizzazione di semplici modelli con il programma agli elementi finiti PLAXIS (Brinkgreve et al., 2008) ha consentito di analizzare le prestazioni dei modelli numerici riguardo all’influenza delle condizioni al contorno confrontandoli con un calcolo teorico del fattore di amplificazione. Questa serie di test ha consentito di stabilire alcune linee guida per la realizzazione di test con un buon livello di affidabilità. Alcuni case-history, in particolare quello di Las Colinas (El Salvador), sono stati modellati allo scopo di applicare e verificare i risultati ottenuti con i semplici modelli sopracitati. Inoltre sono state svolte analisi di sensitività alla dimensione della mesh e ai parametri di smorzamento e di elasticità. I risultati hanno evidenziato una forte dipendenza dei risultati dai parametri di smorzamento, rilevando l’importanza di una corretta valutazione di questa grandezza. In ultima battuta ci si è occupati dell’accuratezza e dell’applicabilità dei modelli monodimensionali. I risultati di alcuni modelli monodimensionali realizzati con il software Quiver (Kaynia, 2009) sono stati confrontati con quelli ottenuti da modelli bidimensionali. Dal confronto è risultato un buon grado di approssimazione accompagnato da un margine di sicurezza costante. Le analisi monodimensionali sono poi state utilizzate per la verifica di sensitività. I risultati di questo lavoro sono qui presentati e accompagnati da suggerimenti qualitativi e quantitativi per la realizzazione di modelli bidimensionali affidabili. Inoltre si descrive la possibilità di utilizzare modelli monodimensionali in caso d’incertezze sui parametri. Dai risultati osservati emerge la possibilità di ottenere un risparmio di tempo nella realizzazione di importanti indagini di sensitività.

A new predictive solar radiation numerical model

[EN]A predictive solar radiation numerical model is presented. Starting from the works of, a solar radiation numerical model is developed considering the terrain surface through 2-D adaptive meshes of triangles which are constructed using a refinement/derefinement procedure in accordance with the variations of terrain surface and albedo. The effect of shadows is considered in each time step. Solar radiation is first computed for clear-sky (CS) conditions and then, real-sky values are computed daily in terms of the CS index computed using all the observational data which are available for each day at several points of the studied zone…

Numerical and analytical vibro-acoustic modelling of porous materials: the Cell Method for poroelasticity and the case of inclusions

Porous materials are widely used in many fields of industrial applications, to achieve the requirements of noise reduction, that nowadays derive from strict regulations. The modeling of porous materials is still a problematic issue. Numerical simulations are often problematic in case of real complex geometries, especially in terms of computational times and convergence. At the same time, analytical models, even if partly limited by restrictive simplificative hypotheses, represent a powerful instrument to capture quickly the physics of the problem and general trends. In this context, a recently developed numerical method, called the Cell Method, is described, is presented in the case of the Biot's theory and applied for representative cases. The peculiarity of the Cell Method is that it allows for a direct algebraic and geometrical discretization of the field equations, without any reduction to a weak integral form. Then, the second part of the thesis presents the case of interaction between two poroelastic materials under the context of double porosity. The idea of using periodically repeated inclusions of a second porous material into a layer composed by an original material is described. In particular, the problem is addressed considering the efficiency of the analytical method. A analytical procedure for the simulation of heterogeneous layers based is described and validated considering both conditions of absorption and transmission; a comparison with the available numerical methods is performed. ---------------- I materiali porosi sono ampiamente utilizzati per diverse applicazioni industriali, al fine di raggiungere gli obiettivi di riduzione del rumore, che sono resi impegnativi da norme al giorno d'oggi sempre più stringenti. La modellazione dei materiali porori per applicazioni vibro-acustiche rapprensenta un aspetto di una certa complessità. Le simulazioni numeriche sono spesso problematiche quando siano coinvolte geometrie di pezzi reali, in particolare riguardo i tempi computazionali e la convergenza. Allo stesso tempo, i modelli analitici, anche se parzialmente limitati a causa di ipotesi semplificative che ne restringono l'ambito di utilizzo, rappresentano uno strumento molto utile per comprendere rapidamente la fisica del problema e individuare tendenze generali. In questo contesto, un metodo numerico recentemente sviluppato, il Metodo delle Celle, viene descritto, implementato nel caso della teoria di Biot per la poroelasticità e applicato a casi rappresentativi. La peculiarità del Metodo delle Celle consiste nella discretizzazione diretta algebrica e geometrica delle equazioni di campo, senza alcuna riduzione a forme integrali deboli. Successivamente, nella seconda parte della tesi viene presentato il caso delle interazioni tra due materiali poroelastici a contatto, nel contesto dei materiali a doppia porosità. Viene descritta l'idea di utilizzare inclusioni periodicamente ripetute di un secondo materiale poroso all'interno di un layer a sua volta poroso. In particolare, il problema è studiando il metodo analitico e la sua efficienza. Una procedura analitica per il calcolo di strati eterogenei di materiale viene descritta e validata considerando sia condizioni di assorbimento, sia di trasmissione; viene effettuata una comparazione con i metodi numerici a disposizione.

Study of the thermal effects induced by magnetic resonance on endocardial leads: numerical models and experimental validation

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is today precluded to patients bearing active implantable medical devices AIMDs). The great advantages related to this diagnostic modality, together with the increasing number of people benefiting from implantable devices, in particular pacemakers(PM)and carioverter/defibrillators (ICD), is prompting the scientific community the study the possibility to extend MRI also to implanted patients. The MRI induced specific absorption rate (SAR) and the consequent heating of biological tissues is one of the major concerns that makes patients bearing metallic structures contraindicated for MRI scans. To date, both in-vivo and in-vitro studies have demonstrated the potentially dangerous temperature increase caused by the radiofrequency (RF) field generated during MRI procedures in the tissues surrounding thin metallic implants. On the other side, the technical evolution of MRI scanners and of AIMDs together with published data on the lack of adverse events have reopened the interest in this field and suggest that, under given conditions, MRI can be safely performed also in implanted patients. With a better understanding of the hazards of performing MRI scans on implanted patients as well as the development of MRI safe devices, we may soon enter an era where the ability of this imaging modality may be more widely used to assist in the appropriate diagnosis of patients with devices. In this study both experimental measures and numerical analysis were performed. Aim of the study is to systematically investigate the effects of the MRI RF filed on implantable devices and to identify the elements that play a major role in the induced heating. Furthermore, we aimed at developing a realistic numerical model able to simulate the interactions between an RF coil for MRI and biological tissues implanted with a PM, and to predict the induced SAR as a function of the particular path of the PM lead. The methods developed and validated during the PhD program led to the design of an experimental framework for the accurate measure of PM lead heating induced by MRI systems. In addition, numerical models based on Finite-Differences Time-Domain (FDTD) simulations were validated to obtain a general tool for investigating the large number of parameters and factors involved in this complex phenomenon. The results obtained demonstrated that the MRI induced heating on metallic implants is a real risk that represents a contraindication in extending MRI scans also to patient bearing a PM, an ICD, or other thin metallic objects. On the other side, both experimental data and numerical results show that, under particular conditions, MRI procedures might be consider reasonably safe also for an implanted patient. The complexity and the large number of variables involved, make difficult to define a unique set of such conditions: when the benefits of a MRI investigation cannot be obtained using other imaging techniques, the possibility to perform the scan should not be immediately excluded, but some considerations are always needed.