Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Do socioeconomic inequalities in mortality vary between different Spanish cities? a pooled cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND The relationship between deprivation and mortality in urban settings is well established. This relationship has been found for several causes of death in Spanish cities in independent analyses (the MEDEA project). However, no joint analysis which pools the strength of this relationship across several cities has ever been undertaken. Such an analysis would determine, if appropriate, a joint relationship by linking the associations found. METHODS A pooled cross-sectional analysis of the data from the MEDEA project has been carried out for each of the causes of death studied. Specifically, a meta-analysis has been carried out to pool the relative risks in eleven Spanish cities. Different deprivation-mortality relationships across the cities are considered in the analysis (fixed and random effects models). The size of the cities is also considered as a possible factor explaining differences between cities. RESULTS Twenty studies have been carried out for different combinations of sex and causes of death. For nine of them (men: prostate cancer, diabetes, mental illnesses, Alzheimer's disease, cerebrovascular disease; women: diabetes, mental illnesses, respiratory diseases, cirrhosis) no differences were found between cities in the effect of deprivation on mortality; in four cases (men: respiratory diseases, all causes of mortality; women: breast cancer, Alzheimer's disease) differences not associated with the size of the city have been determined; in two cases (men: cirrhosis; women: lung cancer) differences strictly linked to the size of the city have been determined, and in five cases (men: lung cancer, ischaemic heart disease; women: ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, all causes of mortality) both kinds of differences have been found. Except for lung cancer in women, every significant relationship between deprivation and mortality goes in the same direction: deprivation increases mortality. Variability in the relative risks across cities was found for general mortality for both sexes. CONCLUSIONS This study provides a general overview of the relationship between deprivation and mortality for a sample of large Spanish cities combined. This joint study allows the exploration of and, if appropriate, the quantification of the variability in that relationship for the set of cities considered.

Remodelage des canaux potassiques dépendants de l'ATP lors de l'hypertrophie et de l'insuffisance cardiaque

RESUME :Introduction. Les maladies cardiovasculaires représentent la première cause de mortalité dans les pays développés et l'insuffisance cardiaque (IC) est la plus fréquente. Suite à un infarctus, le coeur des patients subit un remodelage ventriculaire pouvant évoluer vers un état d'IC. L'IC se définit comme un état dans lequel le coeur n'est plus capable d'approvisionner suffisamment les organes et cet état s'accompagne souvent de troubles du rythme cardiaque. Le remodelage ventriculaire touche de nombreux gènes codant à la fois pour les voies métaboliques et pour des canaux ioniques favorisant ainsi l'apparition des arythmies responsables de la mort subite des patients atteints d'IC. Comprendre ce passage entre remodelage et IC est crucial afin de pouvoir un jour prévenir l'IC et les complications médicales qui l'accompagnent. Nous nous sommes intéressés aux canaux potassiques dépendants de l'ATP (KATP) car ces canaux ont la capacité de coupler le métabolisme de la cellule à son activité électrique. En effet, les canaux KATP s'ouvrent quand la charge énergétique (rapport ATP/ ADP) de la cellule chute. Dans les cardiomyocytes, l'ouverture des KATP induit une hyperpolarisation de la membrane cellulaire ce qui diminue indirectement la surcharge calcique et de ce fait préserve la cellule. Les canaux KATp sont formés de 4 sous-unités Kir6.x (Kir6.1 ou Kir6.2) formant le pore du canal associées à 4 sous-unités régulatrices SUR. Les propriétés électrophysiologiques ainsi que la sensibilité pharmacologique des canaux KATP dépendent de leur composition et seuls les canaux KATP formés par la sous-unité Kirô.l sont activés par le diazoxyde.Méthodes et résultats. Nous avons d'abord montré dans un modèle in vivo d'IC chez le rat adulte que les sous-unités Kir6.1 et SUR sont surexprimées dans ces conditions pathologiques. Par ailleurs, les cardiomyocytes issus des coeurs infarcis deviennent sensibles au diazoxyde reflétant la surexpression de Kir6.1. Les potentiels d'action qui sont prolongés dans l'IC et qui sont à l'origine d'arythmies majeures sont normalisés par l'ouverture des canaux KATp induite par le diazoxyde. Ainsi, l'ouverture pharmacologique des canaux KATp contribuerait à la cardio-protection. Dans une seconde partie, nous avons déterminé quels étaient les facteurs de transcription responsables de ce changement d'expression des sous-unités formant les KATP. Dans notre modèle, nous avons pu montrer que la surexpression de Kirô.l est due aux facteurs de transcription Fox03 et FoxF2 qui est aussi responsable de la surexpression des sous-unités SUR. Dans la dernière partie de ce travail, nous avons mis au point un modèle d'IC in vitro en cultivant les cardiomyocytes de rats adultes en présence d'angiotensine II (Angll) ou de TNFa. Ce modèle expérimental nous a non seulement permis de mettre en relation l'importance de L'AnglI et du TNFa sur le remodelage des canaux KATP mais aussi de développer un modèle in vitro présentant les mêmes caractéristiques que le modèle in vivo concernant le remodelage des KATP lors de l'IC. Ce dernier modèle expérimental ouvre des perspectives afin de mieux caractériser les voies de signalisation impliquées dans le remodelage des canaux KATp lors de l'IC.Conclusion. Les canaux KATp subissent un remodelage lors de l'IC et les résultats obtenus montrent le potentiel cardio-protecteur de ces canaux.ABSTRACT :Background and aim. Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in developed countries and heart failure (HF) is the most common. Following myocardial infarction, the heart of the patient undergoes ventricular remodeling which may evolve toward a state of HF. HF is defined as a state in which heart is unable to supply enough blood to organs and this state is often accompanied by cardiac arrhythmias. Ventricular remodeling involves many genes coding for both metabolic enzymes and ion channels. Changes in ion channel expression can promote arrhythmias responsible for sudden death in patients with HF. A better understanding of the transition between remodeling and HF is crucial in order to prevent the complications associated to HF We were interested in ATP-dependent potassium channels (KATp) because they couple cell metabolism to electrical activity of the cell. Indeed, KATP channels open when the energy charge (ratio of ATP / ADP) of the cell collapses. In cardiomyocytes, the opening of KATP channels induces hyper- polanzation of the cell membrane which reduces calcium overload and thereby protects the cell. KATp channels are composed by 4 Kir6.x subumts (Kir6.1 or Kir6.2) forming the pore channel associated with 4 regulatory subunits SUR. The electrophysiological properties as well as pharmacological sensitivity of KATp channels depend on their composition and only KATP channels formed by Kir6.1 subunit are activated by diazoxide.Methods and results. Firstly, using an in vivo model of HF in adult rats, we showed that Kir6.1 and SUR subunits are overexpressed in HF. In addition, cardiomyocytes from post-infarction hearts became sensitive to diazoxide reflecting the overexpression of the Kir6.1 subunit. The opening of KATP by diazoxide tended to reduce the action potential duration (APD) which is extended in HF. This increase in APD is known to be a major source of arrhythmias during HF. Therefore, the opening of KATP channels by diazoxide would be cardio-protective. Secondly, we wanted to determine which transcription factors were responsible for this KATP remodeling. In our model of HF, we showed that overexpression of Kir6.1 is due to the transcription factors Fox03 and FOXF2 which is also responsible for SUR subunits overexpression. Thirdly, we developed an in vitro model of HF by cultivation of adult rat cardiomyocytes in the presence of angiotensin II (Angll) or TNFa. This model is very interesting not only because it underlines the importance of Angll and TNFa in KATp remodeling but also because this in vitro model presents the same KATP remodeling as the in vivo model of HF. These findings show that our in vitro model of HF opens up many possibilities to investigate more precisely the signaling pathways involved in remodeling of the KATP channels in HF.Conclusion. KATP channels undergo remodeling during HF and our results show the cardio¬protective potential of KATP channels in this disease.

Water-induced modulation of Helicobacter pylori virulence properties

While the influence of water in Helicobacter pylori culturability and membrane integrity has been extensively studied, there are little data concerning the effect of this environment on virulence properties. Therefore, we studied the culturability of water-exposed H. pylori and determined whether there was any relation with the bacterium’s ability to adhere, produce functional components of pathogenicity and induce inflammation and alterations in apoptosis in an experimental model of human gastric epithelial cells. H. pylori partially retained the ability to adhere to epithelial cells even after complete loss of culturability. However, the microorganism is no longer effective in eliciting in vitro host cell inflammation and apoptosis, possibly due to the non-functionality of the cag type IV secretion system. These H. pylori-induced host cell responses, which are lost along with culturability, are known to increase epithelial cell turnover and, consequently, could have a deleterious effect on the initial H. pylori colonisation process. The fact that adhesion is maintained by H. pylori to the detriment of other factors involved in later infection stages appears to point to a modulation of the physiology of the pathogen after water exposure and might provide the microorganism with the necessary means to, at least transiently, colonise the human stomach.

Increased risks of early sexual initiators: time makes a difference.

BACKGROUND: Years since onset of sexual intercourse (YSSI) is a rarely used variable when studying adolescents- sexual outcomes. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of YSSI on the adverse sexual outcomes of early sexual initiators.METHODS: Data were drawn from the 2002 Swiss Multicenter Adolescent Survey on Health database, a nationally representative cross-sectional survey including 7429 adolescents in post mandatory school aged 16-20 years. Only adolescents reporting sexual intercourse (SI) were included (N=4388; 45% females) and divided by age of onset of SI (early initiators, age<16: N=1469, 44% females; and late initiators, age?16: N=2919, 46% females). Analyses were done separately by gender. Groups were compared for personal characteristics at the bivariate level. We analyzed three sexual outcomes (?4 sexual partners, pregnancy and non-use of condom at last SI) controlling for all significant personal variables with two logistic regressions first using age, then YSSI as one of the confounding variables. Results are given as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) using lSI as the reference category.RESULTS: After adjusting for YSSI instead of age, negative sexual outcomes among early initiators were no longer significant, except for multiple sexual partners among females, although at a much lower level. Early initiators were less likely to report non-use of condom at last SI when adjusting for YSSI (females: aOR=0.59 [0.44-0.79]; p<0.001; males aOR=0.71 [0.50-1.00]; p=0.053).CONCLUSION: YSSI is an important explanatory variable when studying adolescents- sexuality and needs to be included in future research on adolescents- sexual health.

Prospective registry of symptomatic severe aortic stenosis in octogenarians: a need for intervention.

OBJECTIVE To study the factors associated with choice of therapy and prognosis in octogenarians with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis (AS). STUDY DESIGN Prospective, observational, multicenter registry. Centralized follow-up included survival status and, if possible, mode of death and Katz index. SETTING Transnational registry in Spain. SUBJECTS We included 928 patients aged ≥80 years with severe symptomatic AS. INTERVENTIONS Aortic-valve replacement (AVR), transcatheter aortic-valve implantation (TAVI) or conservative therapy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES All-cause death. RESULTS Mean age was 84.2 ± 3.5 years, and only 49.0% were independent (Katz index A). The most frequent planned management was conservative therapy in 423 (46%) patients, followed by TAVI in 261 (28%) and AVR in 244 (26%). The main reason against recommending AVR in 684 patients was high surgical risk [322 (47.1%)], other medical motives [193 (28.2%)], patient refusal [134 (19.6%)] and family refusal in the case of incompetent patients [35 (5.1%)]. The mean time from treatment decision to AVR was 4.8 ± 4.6 months and to TAVI 2.1 ± 3.2 months, P < 0.001. During follow-up (11.2-38.9 months), 357 patients (38.5%) died. Survival rates at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months were 81.8%, 72.6%, 64.1% and 57.3%, respectively. Planned intervention, adjusted for multiple propensity score, was associated with lower mortality when compared with planned conservative treatment: TAVI Hazard ratio (HR) 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.49-0.93; P = 0.016) and AVR HR 0.56 (95% CI 0.39-0.8; P = 0.002). CONCLUSION Octogenarians with symptomatic severe AS are frequently managed conservatively. Planned conservative management is associated with a poor prognosis.

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in preventable mortality in urban areas of 33 Spanish cities, 1996-2007 (MEDEA project).

Abstract Background: Preventable mortality is a good indicator of possible problems to be investigated in the primary prevention chain, making it also a useful tool with which to evaluate health policies particularly public health policies. This study describes inequalities in preventable avoidable mortality in relation to socioeconomic status in small urban areas of thirty three Spanish cities, and analyses their evolution over the course of the periods 1996–2001 and 2002–2007. Methods: We analysed census tracts and all deaths occurring in the population residing in these cities from 1996 to 2007 were taken into account. The causes included in the study were lung cancer, cirrhosis, AIDS/HIV, motor vehicle traffic accidents injuries, suicide and homicide. The census tracts were classified into three groups, according their socioeconomic level. To analyse inequalities in mortality risks between the highest and lowest socioeconomic levels and over different periods, for each city and separating by sex, Poisson regression were used. Results: Preventable avoidable mortality made a significant contribution to general mortality (around 7.5%, higher among men), having decreased over time in men (12.7 in 1996–2001 and 10.9 in 2002–2007), though not so clearly among women (3.3% in 1996–2001 and 2.9% in 2002–2007). It has been observed in men that the risks of death are higher in areas of greater deprivation, and that these excesses have not modified over time. The result in women is different and differences in mortality risks by socioeconomic level could not be established in many cities. Conclusions: Preventable mortality decreased between the 1996–2001 and 2002–2007 periods, more markedly in men than in women. There were socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in most cities analysed, associating a higher risk of death with higher levels of deprivation. Inequalities have remained over the two periods analysed. This study makes it possible to identify those areas where excess preventable mortality was associated with more deprived zones. It is in these deprived zones where actions to reduce and monitor health inequalities should be put into place. Primary healthcare may play an important role in this process. Keywords: Preventable avoidable mortality, Causes of death, Inequalities in health, Small area analysis

El proyecto EMECAM: Estudio Multicéntrico Español sobre la Relación entre la Contaminación Atmosférica y la Mortalidad. Antecedentes, participantes, objetivos y métodología.

In recent years, a growing number of studies suggests that increases in air pollution levels may have short-term impact on human health, even at pollution levels similar to or lower than those which have been considered to be safe to date. The different methodological approaches and the varying analysis techniques employed have made it difficult to make a direct comparison among all of the findings, preventing any clear conclusions from being drawn. This has led to multicenter projects such as the APHEA (Short-Term Impact of Air Pollution on Health. A European Approach) within a European Scope. The EMECAM Project falls within the context of the aforesaid multicenter studies and has a wide-ranging projection nationwide within Spain. Fourteen (14) cities throughout Spain were included in this Project (Barcelona, Metropolitan Area of Bilbao, Cartagena, Castellón, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Pamplona, Seville, Oviedo, Valencia, Vigo, Vitoria and Saragossa) representing different sociodemographic, climate and environmental situations, adding up to a total of nearly nine million inhabitants. The objective of the EMECAM project is that to asses the short-term impact of air pollution throughout all of the participating cities on the mortality for all causes, on the population and on individuals over age 70, for respiratory and cardiovascular design causes. For this purpose, with an ecological, the time series data analyzed taking the daily deaths, pollutants, temperature data and other factors taken from records kept by public institutions. The period of time throughout which this study was conducted, although not exactly the same for all of the cities involved, runs in all cases from 1990 to 1996. The degree of relationship measured by means of an autoregressive Poisson regression. In the future, the results of each city will be combined by means of a meta-analysis.

Declining stroke and myocardial infarction mortality between 1989 and 2010 in a country of the African region.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In low- and middle-income countries, the total burden of cardiovascular diseases is expected to increase due to demographic and epidemiological transitions. However, data on cause-specific mortality are lacking in sub-Saharan Africa. Seychelles is one of the few countries in the region where all deaths are registered and medically certified. In this study, we examine trends in mortality for stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) between 1989 and 2010. METHODS: Based on vital statistics, we ascertained stroke and MI as the cause of death if appearing in any of the 4 fields for immediate, intermediate, underlying, and contributory causes in death certificates. RESULTS: Mortality rates (per 100 000, age-standardized to World Health Organization standard population) decreased from 1669/710 (men/women) in 1989 to 1991 to 1113/535 in 2008-10 for all causes, from 250/140 to 141/86 for stroke, and from 117/51 to 59/24 for MI, corresponding to proportionate decreases of 33%/25% for all-cause mortality, 44%/39% for stroke, and 50%/53% for MI over 22 years. The absolute number of stroke and MI deaths did not increase over time. In 2008 to 2010, the median age of death was 65/78 years (men/women) for all causes, 68/78 for stroke, and 66/73 for MI. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1989 and 2010, age-standardized stroke and MI mortality decreased markedly and more rapidly than all-cause mortality. The absolute number of cardiovascular disease deaths did not increase over time because the impact of population aging was fully compensated by the decline in cardiovascular disease mortality. Stroke mortality remained high, emphasizing the need to strengthen cardiovascular disease prevention and control.

A case of suicide by ingestion of caffeine

Summary Intentional or unintentional caffeine abuse due to excessive intake of beverages or energy drinks containing caffeine is relatively frequent. However, death due to caffeine intoxication is rare and case reports of fatalities from caffeine toxicity are relatively infrequent. In this report, we describe an autopsy case involving a 31 year-old man who intentionally took a large amount of caffeine tablets in the form of a weight loss supplement as part of a suicide plan. Caffeine femoral blood concentration (170 mg/l) was within the toxic and potentially lethal ranges reported in the literature in similar cases. Postmortem biochemistry results suggested depressed glomerular filtration rate and prerenal failure at the time of death and failed to reveal myoglobinuria, glycosuria, ketonuria or ketonemia. Based on the absence of pathological findings at autopsy and the high blood caffeine level, death was attributed to acute caffeine toxicity. The case emphasizes the usefulness of performing exhaustive toxicology and searching for all potentially relevant information in order to formulate appropriate hypotheses concerning the cause and manner of death.

Iowa Problem Indentification for Federal 402 State and Community Highway Safety Programs, Iowa Department of Public Safety, January, 2002

The major objective of this problem identification document is the determination of the relative severity of traffic safety problems in each of the 99 counties. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the Iowa Governor's Traffic Safety Bureau are committed to the reduction of death and injury on the nation's roads. As part of its duty in administering federal traffic safety funds in the State of Iowa, the Governor's Traffic Safety Bureau conducts a comprehensive Problem Identification update each year.

Postmortem diagnosis of unsuspected diabetes mellitus.

Vitreous glucose, blood beta-hydroxybutyrate and glycated hemoglobin were systematically measured in a series of 500 medico-legal autopsies in order to characterize the glycemic control during the weeks preceding death and identify ketoacidosis as the cause of death in diagnosed and unsuspected diabetics. Unenhanced CT-scans, histology and toxicology were performed in all cases. 16 cases of diabetic ketoacidosis were identified based on the results of all investigations. Among those, 13 cases concerned individuals with pre-existing diagnoses of diabetes mellitus whereas 3 cases concerned individuals with undiagnosed diabetes. A recent cocaine use was observed in 2 cases. C-reactive protein, interleukin-6 and interleukin-10 were measured and proved to be increased in all cases of diabetic ketoacidosis, whereas markers of generalized, bacterial infection and sepsis were normal in most of these cases. The results of this study highlight the usefulness of systematically performing biochemistry to identify ketoacidosis in unsuspected diabetics. It also emphasizes the role of toxicology and biochemistry to support the diagnosis of diabetic ketoacidosis and delineate the pathophysiological mechanisms that may disrupt the metabolic balance and finally lead to death in diabetic individuals.

Surgical management of hemorrhage from rupture of the aortic arch.

BACKGROUND: Control of hemorrhage in patients with active bleeding from rupture of the aortic arch is difficult, because of the location of the bleeding and the impossibility of cross-clamping the aorta without interfering with cerebral perfusion. A precise and swift plan of management helped us salvage some patients and prompted us to review our experience. METHODS: Six patients with active bleeding of the aortic arch in the mediastinum and pericardial cavity (5 patients) or left pleural cavity (1 patient), treated between 1992 and 1996, were reviewed. Bleeding was reduced by keeping the mediastinum under local tension (3 patients) or by applying compression on the bleeding site (2 patients), or both (1 patient) while circulatory support, retransfusion of aspirated blood, and hypothermia were established. The diseased aortic arch was replaced during deep hypothermic circulatory arrest, which ranged from 25 to 40 minutes. In 3 patients, the brain was further protected by retrograde (2 patients) or antegrade (1 patient) cerebral perfusion. RESULTS: Hemorrhage from the aortic arch was controlled in all patients. Two patients died postoperatively, one of respiratory failure and the other of abdominal sepsis. Recovery of neurologic function was assessed and complete in all patients. The 4 survivors are well 8 to 49 months after operation. CONCLUSIONS: An approach relying on local tamponade to reduce bleeding, rapid establishment of circulatory support and hypothermia, retransfusion of aspirated blood, and swift repair of the aortic arch under circulatory arrest allows salvage of patients with active bleeding from an aortic arch rupture.

Principal components of functional connectivity: A new approach to study dynamic brain connectivity during rest.

Functional connectivity (FC) as measured by correlation between fMRI BOLD time courses of distinct brain regions has revealed meaningful organization of spontaneous fluctuations in the resting brain. However, an increasing amount of evidence points to non-stationarity of FC; i.e., FC dynamically changes over time reflecting additional and rich information about brain organization, but representing new challenges for analysis and interpretation. Here, we propose a data-driven approach based on principal component analysis (PCA) to reveal hidden patterns of coherent FC dynamics across multiple subjects. We demonstrate the feasibility and relevance of this new approach by examining the differences in dynamic FC between 13 healthy control subjects and 15 minimally disabled relapse-remitting multiple sclerosis patients. We estimated whole-brain dynamic FC of regionally-averaged BOLD activity using sliding time windows. We then used PCA to identify FC patterns, termed "eigenconnectivities", that reflect meaningful patterns in FC fluctuations. We then assessed the contributions of these patterns to the dynamic FC at any given time point and identified a network of connections centered on the default-mode network with altered contribution in patients. Our results complement traditional stationary analyses, and reveal novel insights into brain connectivity dynamics and their modulation in a neurodegenerative disease.

Cancer mortality in Europe, 2000-2004, and an overview of trends since 1975.

BACKGROUND: To update the pattern of cancer mortality in Europe. Materials and methods: We analysed cancer mortality in 34 European countries during 2000-2004, with an overview of trends in 1975-2004 using data from the World Health Organization. RESULTS: From 1990-1994 to 2000-2004, overall cancer mortality in the European Union declined from 185.2 to 168.0/100 000 (world standard, -9%) in men and from 104.8 to 96.9 (-8%) in women, with larger falls in middle age. Total cancer mortality trends were favourable, though to a variable degree, in all major European countries, including Russia, but not in Romania. The major determinants of these favourable trends were the decline of lung (-16%) and other tobacco-related cancers in men, together with the persistent falls in gastric cancer, and the recent appreciable falls in colorectal cancer. In women, relevant contributions came from the persistent decline in cervical cancer and the recent falls in breast cancer mortality, particularly in northern and western Europe. Favourable trends were also observed for testicular cancer, Hodgkin lymphomas, leukaemias, and other neoplasms amenable to treatment, though the reductions were still appreciably smaller in eastern Europe. CONCLUSION: This updated analysis of cancer mortality in Europe showed a persistent favourable trend over the last years.