The impact of nonlinear exposure risk relationships on seasonal time series data: modelling danish neonatal birth anthropometric data

Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures.

Ambient temperature and morbidity: A review of epidemiological evidence

OBJECTIVE: This paper reviews the epidemiological evidence on the relationship between ambient temperature and morbidity. It assesses the methodological issues in previous studies, and proposes future research directions. DATA SOURCES AND DATA EXTRACTION: We searched the PubMed database for epidemiological studies on ambient temperature and morbidity of non-communicable diseases published in refereed English journals prior to June 2010. 40 relevant studies were identified. Of these, 24 examined the relationship between ambient temperature and morbidity, 15 investigated the short-term effects of heatwave on morbidity, and 1 assessed both temperature and heatwave effects. DATA SYNTHESIS: Descriptive and time-series studies were the two main research designs used to investigate the temperature–morbidity relationship. Measurements of temperature exposure and health outcomes used in these studies differed widely. The majority of studies reported a significant relationship between ambient temperature and total or cause-specific morbidities. However, there were some inconsistencies in the direction and magnitude of non-linear lag effects. The lag effect of hot temperature on morbidity was shorter (several days) compared to that of cold temperature (up to a few weeks). The temperature–morbidity relationship may be confounded and/or modified by socio-demographic factors and air pollution. CONCLUSIONS: There is a significant short-term effect of ambient temperature on total and cause-specific morbidities. However, further research is needed to determine an appropriate temperature measure, consider a diverse range of morbidities, and to use consistent methodology to make different studies more comparable.

Characterizing the signal pattern of a four-cylinder diesel engine using acoustic emission and vibration analysis

Condition monitoring of diesel engines can prevent unpredicted engine failures and the associated consequence. This paper presents an experimental study of the signal characteristics of a 4-cylinder diesel engine under various loading conditions. Acoustic emission, vibration and in-cylinder pressure signals were employed to study the effectiveness of these techniques for condition monitoring and identifying symptoms of incipient failures. An event driven synchronous averaging technique was employed to average the quasi-periodic diesel engine signal in the time domain to eliminate or minimize the effect of engine speed and amplitude variations on the analysis of condition monitoring signal. It was shown that acoustic emission (AE) is a better technique than vibration method for condition monitor of diesel engines due to its ability to produce high quality signals (i.e., excellent signal to noise ratio) in a noisy diesel engine environment. It was found that the peak amplitude of AE RMS signals correlating to the impact-like combustion related events decreases in general due to a more stable mechanical process of the engine as the loading increases. A small shift in the exhaust valve closing time was observed as the engine load increases which indicates a prolong combustion process in the cylinder (to produce more power). On the contrary, peak amplitudes of the AE RMS attributing to fuel injection increase as the loading increases. This can be explained by the increase fuel friction caused by the increase volume flow rate during the injection. Multiple AE pulses during the combustion process were identified in the study, which were generated by the piston rocking motion and the interaction between the piston and the cylinder wall. The piston rocking motion is caused by the non-uniform pressure distribution acting on the piston head as a result of the non-linear combustion process of the engine. The rocking motion ceased when the pressure in the cylinder chamber stabilized.

Some novel techniques of parameter estimation for the dynamical models in biological systems

Inverse problems based on using experimental data to estimate unknown parameters of a system often arise in biological and chaotic systems. In this paper, we consider parameter estimation in systems biology involving linear and non-linear complex dynamical models, including the Michaelis–Menten enzyme kinetic system, a dynamical model of competence induction in Bacillus subtilis bacteria and a model of feedback bypass in B. subtilis bacteria. We propose some novel techniques for inverse problems. Firstly, we establish an approximation of a non-linear differential algebraic equation that corresponds to the given biological systems. Secondly, we use the Picard contraction mapping, collage methods and numerical integration techniques to convert the parameter estimation into a minimization problem of the parameters. We propose two optimization techniques: a grid approximation method and a modified hybrid Nelder–Mead simplex search and particle swarm optimization (MH-NMSS-PSO) for non-linear parameter estimation. The two techniques are used for parameter estimation in a model of competence induction in B. subtilis bacteria with noisy data. The MH-NMSS-PSO scheme is applied to a dynamical model of competence induction in B. subtilis bacteria based on experimental data and the model for feedback bypass. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

The effect of various temperature indicators on different mortality categories in a subtropical city of Brisbane, Australia.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between temperature and mortality has been explored for decades and many temperature indicators have been applied separately. However, few data are available to show how the effects of different temperature indicators on different mortality categories, particularly in a typical subtropical climate. OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations between various temperature indicators and different mortality categories in Brisbane, Australia during 1996-2004. METHODS: We applied two methods to assess the threshold and temperature indicator for each age and death groups: mean temperature and the threshold assessed from all cause mortality was used for all mortality categories; the specific temperature indicator and the threshold for each mortality category were identified separately according to the minimisation of AIC. We conducted polynomial distributed lag non-linear model to identify effect estimates in mortality with one degree of temperature increase (or decrease) above (or below) the threshold on current days and lagged effects using both methods. RESULTS: Akaike's Information Criterion was minimized when mean temperature was used for all non-external deaths and deaths from 75 to 84 years; when minimum temperature was used for deaths from 0 to 64 years, 65-74 years, ≥ 85 years, and from the respiratory diseases; when maximum temperature was used for deaths from cardiovascular diseases. The effect estimates using certain temperature indicators were similar as mean temperature both for current day and lag effects. CONCLUSION: Different age groups and death categories were sensitive to different temperature indicators. However, the effect estimates from certain temperature indicators did not significantly differ from those of mean temperature.

Effects of corrugation frequency and aspect ratio on natural convection within an enclosure having sinusoidal corrugation over a heated top surface

Natural convection of a two-dimensional laminar steady-state incompressible fluid flow in a modified rectangular enclosure with sinusoidal corrugated top surface has been investigated numerically. The present study has been carried out for different corrugation frequencies on the top surface as well as aspect ratios of the enclosure in order to observe the change in hydrodynamic and thermal behavior with constant corrugation amplitude. A constant flux heat source is flush mounted on the top sinusoidal wall, modeling a wavy sheet shaded room exposed to sunlight. The flat bottom surface is considered as adiabatic, while the both vertical side walls are maintained at the constant ambient temperature. The fluid considered inside the enclosure is air having Prandtl number of 0.71. The numerical scheme is based on the finite element method adapted to triangular non-uniform mesh element by a non-linear parametric solution algorithm. The results in terms of isotherms, streamlines and average Nusselt numbers are obtained for the Rayleigh number ranging from 10^3 to 10^6 with constant physical properties for the fluid medium considered. It is found that the convective phenomena are greatly influenced by the presence of the corrugation and variation of aspect ratios.

Mixed convection laminar flow along a horizontal plate subject to streamwise sinusoidal surface temperature

Mixed convection of a two-dimensional laminar incompressible flow along a horizontal flat plate with streamwise sinusoidal surface temperature has been numerically investigated for different values of Rayleigh number and Reynolds number for constant values of Prandtl number, amplitude and frequency of periodic temperature. The numerical scheme is based on the finite element method adapted to rectangular non-uniform mesh elements by a non-linear parametric solution algorithm. The fluid considered in this study is air. The results are obtained for the Rayleigh number and Reynolds number ranging from 102 to 104 and 1 to 100, respectively, with constant physical properties for the fluid medium considered. Velocity and temperature profiles, streamlines, isotherms, and average Nusselt numbers are presented to observe the effect of the investigating parameters on fluid flow and heat transfer characteristics. The present results show that the convective phenomena are greatly influenced by the variation of Rayleigh numbers and Reynolds number.

Effect of differentially heating and consequent transient behaviour for natural convection within an enclosure of sinusoidal corrugated side walls

Unsteady natural convection due to differentially heating of the sinusoidal corrugated side walls of a modified square enclosure has been numerically investigated. The fluid inside the enclosure is air, initially as quiescent. The flat top and bottom surfaces are considered as adiabatic. The numerical scheme is based on the finite element method adapted to triangular non-uniform mesh element by a non-linear parametric solution algorithm. The results are obtained for the Rayleigh number, Ra ranging from 1e+05 to 1e+08 for different corrugation amplitude and frequency with constant physical properties for the fluid medium considered. The streamlines, isotherms and average Nusselt numbers are presented to observe the effect of sudden heating and its consequent transient behavior on fluid flow and heat transfer characteristics for the range of governing parameters. The present results show that the transient phenomena are greatly influenced by the variation of the aforementioned parameters.

Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian sequentially designed experiments for discrete data

In this paper we present a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian sequential experimental design applied to generalised non-linear models for discrete data. The approach is computationally convenient in that the information of newly observed data can be incorporated through a simple re-weighting step. We also consider a flexible parametric model for the stimulus-response relationship together with a newly developed hybrid design utility that can produce more robust estimates of the target stimulus in the presence of substantial model and parameter uncertainty. The algorithm is applied to hypothetical clinical trial or bioassay scenarios. In the discussion, potential generalisations of the algorithm are suggested to possibly extend its applicability to a wide variety of scenarios

The inherent challenges of knowledge transfer across countries and cultures

Purpose — The purpose of this chapter is to outline the findings of research into knowledge transfer across countries and culture and the implications of the findings for human resource practitioners. Methodology/approach — Use of a qualitative case study methodology approach was employed. Findings — The findings highlight the inherent difficulty of knowledge transfer and the broad range of factors that influence the knowledge transfer process and which are connected together in a complex and non-linear manner. Research implications — The research revealed insight into those managers most likely to be effective at knowledge transfer and what characteristics and experiences had supported this openness to knowledge from outside of their cultural context. The lessons from the research can be incorporated into the selection and development processes for expatriates. Originality value — The study affirmed the critical importance of face-to-face interaction in knowledge transfer. The research also resulted in the development of a practical model and tool, which pulls together the broad range of factors that impact on knowledge transfer.

Interactive axial shortening of columns and walls in high rise buildings

Concrete is commonly used as a primary construction material for tall building construction. Load bearing components such as columns and walls in concrete buildings are subjected to instantaneous and long term axial shortening caused by the time dependent effects of "shrinkage", "creep" and "elastic" deformations. Reinforcing steel content, variable concrete modulus, volume to surface area ratio of the elements and environmental conditions govern axial shortening. The impact of differential axial shortening among columns and core shear walls escalate with increasing building height. Differential axial shortening of gravity loaded elements in geometrically complex and irregular buildings result in permanent distortion and deflection of the structural frame which have a significant impact on building envelopes, building services, secondary systems and the life time serviceability and performance of a building. Existing numerical methods commonly used in design to quantify axial shortening are mainly based on elastic analytical techniques and therefore unable to capture the complexity of non-linear time dependent effect. Ambient measurements of axial shortening using vibrating wire, external mechanical strain, and electronic strain gauges are methods that are available to verify pre-estimated values from the design stage. Installing these gauges permanently embedded in or on the surface of concrete components for continuous measurements during and after construction with adequate protection is uneconomical, inconvenient and unreliable. Therefore such methods are rarely if ever used in actual practice of building construction. This research project has developed a rigorous numerical procedure that encompasses linear and non-linear time dependent phenomena for prediction of axial shortening of reinforced concrete structural components at design stage. This procedure takes into consideration (i) construction sequence, (ii) time varying values of Young's Modulus of reinforced concrete and (iii) creep and shrinkage models that account for variability resulting from environmental effects. The capabilities of the procedure are illustrated through examples. In order to update previous predictions of axial shortening during the construction and service stages of the building, this research has also developed a vibration based procedure using ambient measurements. This procedure takes into consideration the changes in vibration characteristic of structure during and after construction. The application of this procedure is illustrated through numerical examples which also highlight the features. The vibration based procedure can also be used as a tool to assess structural health/performance of key structural components in the building during construction and service life.

Safety enhancement of operator protection systems on self-propelled mining equipment

In the long term, with development of skill, knowledge, exposure and confidence within the engineering profession, rigorous analysis techniques have the potential to become a reliable and far more comprehensive method for design and verification of the structural adequacy of OPS, write Nimal J Perera, David P Thambiratnam and Brian Clark. This paper explores the potential to enhance operator safety of self-propelled mechanical plant subjected to roll over and impact of falling objects using the non-linear and dynamic response simulation capabilities of analytical processes to supplement quasi-static testing methods prescribed in International and Australian Codes of Practice for bolt on Operator Protection Systems (OPS) that are post fitted. The paper is based on research work carried out by the authors at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) over a period of three years by instrumentation of prototype tests, scale model tests in the laboratory and rigorous analysis using validated Finite Element (FE) Models. The FE codes used were ABAQUS for implicit analysis and LSDYNA for explicit analysis. The rigorous analysis and dynamic simulation technique described in the paper can be used to investigate the structural response due to accident scenarios such as multiple roll over, impact of multiple objects and combinations of such events and thereby enhance the safety and performance of Roll Over and Falling Object Protection Systems (ROPS and FOPS). The analytical techniques are based on sound engineering principles and well established practice for investigation of dynamic impact on all self propelled vehicles. They are used for many other similar applications where experimental techniques are not feasible.

Feature-domain super-resolution framework for gabor-based face and iris recognition

The low resolution of images has been one of the major limitations in recognising humans from a distance using their biometric traits, such as face and iris. Superresolution has been employed to improve the resolution and the recognition performance simultaneously, however the majority of techniques employed operate in the pixel domain, such that the biometric feature vectors are extracted from a super-resolved input image. Feature-domain superresolution has been proposed for face and iris, and is shown to further improve recognition performance by capitalising on direct super-resolving the features which are used for recognition. However, current feature-domain superresolution approaches are limited to simple linear features such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), which are not the most discriminant features for biometrics. Gabor-based features have been shown to be one of the most discriminant features for biometrics including face and iris. This paper proposes a framework to conduct super-resolution in the non-linear Gabor feature domain to further improve the recognition performance of biometric systems. Experiments have confirmed the validity of the proposed approach, demonstrating superior performance to existing linear approaches for both face and iris biometrics.

Temperature dependent electrical resistivity in expoxy : multiwall carbon nanotube nanocomposites

Thin films of expoxy nanocomposites modified by multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) were prepared by shear mixing and spin casting. The electrical behaviour and its dependence with temperature between 243 and 353 degrees Kelvin were characterized by measuring the direct current (DC) conductivity. Depending on the fabrication process, both linear and non-linear relationships between conductivity and temperature were observed. In addition, the thermal history also played a role in dictating the conductivity. The implications of these observations for potential application of these files as strain sensors are discussed.

Documentary as history, memory, dream and film

A century ago, as the Western world embarked on a period of traumatic change, the visual realism of photography and documentary film brought print and radio news to life. The vision that these new mediums threw into stark relief was one of intense social and political upheaval: the birth of modernity fired and tempered in the crucible of the Great War. As millions died in this fiery chamber and the influenza pandemic that followed, lines of empires staggered to their fall, and new geo-political boundaries were scored in the raw, red flesh of Europe. The decade of 1910 to 1919 also heralded a prolific period of artistic experimentation. It marked the beginning of the social and artistic age of modernity and, with it, the nascent beginnings of a new art form: film. We still live in the shadow of this violent, traumatic and fertile age; haunted by the ghosts of Flanders and Gallipoli and its ripples of innovation and creativity. Something happened here, but to understand how and why is not easy; for the documentary images we carry with us in our collective cultural memory have become what Baudrillard refers to as simulacra. Detached from their referents, they have become referents themselves, to underscore other, grand narratives in television and Hollywood films. The personal histories of the individuals they represent so graphically–and their hope, love and loss–are folded into a national story that serves, like war memorials and national holidays, to buttress social myths and values. And, as filmic images cross-pollinate, with each iteration offering a new catharsis, events that must have been terrifying or wondrous are abstracted. In this paper we first discuss this transformation through reference to theories of documentary and memory–this will form a conceptual framework for a subsequent discussion of the short film Anmer. Produced by the first author in 2010, Anmer is a visual essay on documentary, simulacra and the symbolic narratives of history. Its form, structure and aesthetic speak of the confluence of documentary, history, memory and dream. Located in the first decade of the twentieth century, its non-linear narratives of personal tragedy and poetic dreamscapes are an evocative reminder of the distance between intimate experience, grand narratives, and the mythologies of popular films. This transformation of documentary sources not only played out in the processes of the film’s production, but also came to form its theme.