On Causal Mediation Analysis with a Survival Outcome

Suppose that having established a marginal total effect of a point exposure on a time-to-event outcome, an investigator wishes to decompose this effect into its direct and indirect pathways, also know as natural direct and indirect effects, mediated by a variable known to occur after the exposure and prior to the outcome. This paper proposes a theory of estimation of natural direct and indirect effects in two important semiparametric models for a failure time outcome. The underlying survival model for the marginal total effect and thus for the direct and indirect effects, can either be a marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model, or a marginal structural additive hazards model. The proposed theory delivers new estimators for mediation analysis in each of these models, with appealing robustness properties. Specifically, in order to guarantee ignorability with respect to the exposure and mediator variables, the approach, which is multiply robust, allows the investigator to use several flexible working models to adjust for confounding by a large number of pre-exposure variables. Multiple robustness is appealing because it only requires a subset of working models to be correct for consistency; furthermore, the analyst need not know which subset of working models is in fact correct to report valid inferences. Finally, a novel semiparametric sensitivity analysis technique is developed for each of these models, to assess the impact on inference, of a violation of the assumption of ignorability of the mediator.

Causal Inference in Observational Studies with Outcome-Dependent Sampling

In this paper, we consider estimation of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome from observational data collected in two phases. In the first phase, a simple random sample of individuals are drawn from a population. On these individuals, information is obtained on treatment, outcome, and a few low-dimensional confounders. These individuals are then stratified according to these factors. In the second phase, a random sub-sample of individuals are drawn from each stratum, with known, stratum-specific selection probabilities. On these individuals, a rich set of confounding factors are collected. In this setting, we introduce four estimators: (1) simple inverse weighted, (2) locally efficient, (3) doubly robust and (4)enriched inverse weighted. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of these estimators in a simulation study. We also use our methodology to estimate the causal effect of trauma care on in-hospital mortality using data from the National Study of Cost and Outcomes of Trauma.

Impact of vessel size on outcome after implantation of sirolimus-eluting and paclitaxel-eluting stents: a subgroup analysis of the SIRTAX trial

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the impact of vessel size on angiographic and long-term clinical outcome after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with sirolimus-eluting stents (SES) and paclitaxel-eluting stents (PES) within a randomized trial (SIRTAX [Sirolimus-Eluting Stent Compared With Paclitaxel-Eluting Stent for Coronary Revascularization]). BACKGROUND: Percutaneous coronary intervention in small-vessel disease is associated with an increased risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE). METHODS: A total of 1,012 patients were randomly assigned to treatment with SES (n = 503) or PES (n = 509). A stratified analysis of angiographic and clinical outcome was performed up to 2 years after PCI according to size of the treated vessel (reference vessel diameter < or =2.75 vs. >2.75 mm). RESULTS: Of 1,012 patients, 370 patients (37%) with 495 lesions underwent stent implantation in small vessels only, 504 patients (50%) with 613 lesions in large vessels only, and 138 patients (14%) with 301 lesions in both small and large vessels (mixed). In patients with small-vessel stents, SES reduced MACE by 55% (10.4% vs. 21.4%; p = 0.004), mainly driven by a 69% reduction of target lesion revascularization (TLR) (6.0% vs. 17.7%; p = 0.001) compared with PES at 2 years. In patients with large- and mixed-vessel stents, rates of MACE (large: 10.4% vs. 13.1%; p = 0.33; mixed: 16.7% vs. 18.0%; p = 0.83) and TLR (large: 6.9% vs. 8.6%; p = 0.47; mixed: 16.7% vs. 15.4%; p = 0.86) were similar for SES and PES. There were no significant differences with respect to death and myocardial infarction between the 3 groups. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with PES, SES more effectively reduced MACE and TLR in small-vessel disease. Differences between SES and PES appear less pronounced in patients with large- and mixed-vessel disease. (The SIRTAX trial; http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct/show/NCT00297661?order=1; NCT00297661).

Modelling the results of health promotion activities in Switzerland: development of the Swiss Model for Outcome Classification in Health Promotion and Prevention

This paper describes the Model for Outcome Classification in Health Promotion and Prevention adopted by Health Promotion Switzerland (SMOC, Swiss Model for Outcome Classification) and the process of its development. The context and method of model development, and the aim and objectives of the model are outlined. Preliminary experience with application of the model in evaluation planning and situation analysis is reported. On the basis of an extensive literature search, the model is situated within the wider international context of similar efforts to meet the challenge of developing tools to assess systematically the activities of health promotion and prevention.

Clinical outcome of a short-term psychotherapeutic intervention for the treatment of dental phobia

Objective: Anxiety before receiving dental treatment is widespread. The aim of this investigation was to evaluate the effect of a brief psychologic treatment on adherence to the dental treatment regimen in patients with dental phobia. Method and Materials: Dental phobic patients (n = 160) received 3 sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy that consisted of stress management training and exposure to phobic stimuli. The outcome was determined in terms of 3 subsequent dental visits. Results: Participating patients had not visited a dental clinician for an average of 6 years. Comparison of patients who completed the psychologic treatment with those who dropped out showed that 68% of the former but also 52% of the latter adhered to the subsequent dental treatment regimen. The number of psychologic treatment sessions correlated significantly and positively with anxiety level before treatment. Conclusion: Short-term psychologic therapy of 3 sessions results in a success rate of 70% to adherence to dental treatment among dental phobic patients. Duration of avoidance of anxiety before treatment was not related to success in completing the trial. Nevertheless, the more intense the patient's phobia, the more psychotherapeutic sessions were necessary. (Quintessence Int 2007;38; E589-E596).

Correlation of bone defect dimensions with healing outcome one year after apical surgery

This clinical study prospectively evaluated the healing outcome 1 year after apical surgery in relation to bony crypt dimensions measured intraoperatively. The study cohort included 183 teeth in an equal number of patients. For statistical analysis, results were dichotomized (healed versus non-healed cases). The overall success rate was 83% (healed cases). Healing outcome was not significantly related to the level and height of the facial bone plate. In contrast, a significant difference was found for the mean size of the bony crypt when healed cases (395 mm(3)) were compared with non-healed cases (554 mm(3)). In addition, healed cases had a significantly shorter mean distance (4.30 mm) from the facial bone surface to the root canal (horizontal access) compared with non-healed cases (5.13 mm). With logistic regression, however, the only parameter found to be significantly related to healing outcome was the length of the access window to the bony crypt.

Clinical and radiographic assessment of various predictors for healing outcome 1 year after periapical surgery

This clinical study prospectively evaluated the influence of various predictors on healing outcome 1 year after periapical surgery. The study cohort included 194 teeth in an equal number of patients. Three teeth were lost for the follow-up (1.5% drop-out rate). Clinical and radiographic measures were used to determine the healing outcome. For statistical analysis, results were dichotomized (healed versus nonhealed). The overall success rate was 83.8% (healed cases). The only individual predictors to prove significant for the outcome were pain at initial examination (p=0.030) and other clinical signs or symptoms at initial examination (p=0.042), meaning that such teeth had lower healing rates 1 year after periapical surgery compared with teeth without such signs or symptoms. Logistic regression revealed that pain at initial examination (odds ratio=2.59, confidence interval=1.2-5.6, p=0.04) was the only predictor reaching significance. Several predictors almost reached statistical significance: lesion size (p=0.06), retrofilling material (p=0.06), and postoperative healing course (p=0.06).

Outcome of elderly patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention for acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction

AIM: To investigate the outcome of primary percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) in elderly patients (>/=>/=75 years) with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). METHODS AND RESULTS: Between 1995 and 2003, a total of 319 consecutive patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction presenting within 6-12 hr after onset of symptoms were prospectively enrolled in a registry. Of 296 patients undergoing primary PCI, 40 patients were >/=>/=75 years old (group A) and 256 patients younger than 75 years (group B). Elderly patients presented with a lower ejection fraction (49 +/- 14% vs. 53 +/- 13%, P = 0.046) and a higher number of cardiovascular risk factors. PCI success was achieved in 80% (group A) and 91% (group B, P = 0.031), respectively with comparable door-to-balloon times (87 +/- 49 and 95 +/- 79 min, P = ns). Periprocedural complications in both groups were low and major adverse cardiac events (death, myocardial infarction, target vessel revascularization and cardiac rehospitalization) after 6 months amounted to 23% (group A) and 20% (group B, P = ns), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical outcome of elderly patients (>/=>/=75 years) with acute STEMI is favorable and comparable with the middle-aged population. However, procedural success was significantly lower in elderly (80%) compared to younger patients (90%). Acute percutaneous coronary intervention appears to be safe and not associated with higher periprocedural complications, in elderly patients.

Admission glycaemia and outcome in patients with acute coronary syndrome

Some studies of patients with acute myocardial infarction have reported that hyperglycaemia at admission may be associated with a worse outcome. This study sought to evaluate the association of blood glucose at admission with the outcome of unselected patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Using the Acute Myocardial Infarction and unstable angina in Switzerland (AMIS Plus) registry, ACS patients were stratified according to their blood glucose on admission: group 1: 2.80-6.99 mmol/L, group 2: 7.00-11.09 mmol/L and group 3: > 11.10 mmol/L. Odds ratios for in-hospital mortality were calculated using logistic regression models. Of 2,786 patients, 73% were male and 21% were known to have diabetes. In-hospital mortality increased from 3% in group 1 to 7% in group 2 and to 15% in group 3. Higher glucose levels were associated with larger enzymatic infarct sizes (p<0.001) and had a weak negative correlation with angiographic or echographic left ventricular ejection fraction. High admission glycaemia in ACS patients remains a significant independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 1.08; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.05-1.14, p<0.001) per mmol/L. The OR for in-hospital mortality was 1.04 (95% CI 0.99-1.1; p=0.140) per mmol/L for patients with diabetes but 1.21 (95% CI 112-1.30; p<0.001) per mmol/L for non-diabetic patients. In conclusion, elevated glucose level in ACS patients on admission is a significant independent predictor of in-hospital mortality and is even more important for patients who do not have known diabetes.