Statistical modelling and power analysis for detecting trends in total suspended sediment loads

The export of sediments from coastal catchments can have detrimental impacts on estuaries and near shore reef ecosystems such as the Great Barrier Reef. Catchment management approaches aimed at reducing sediment loads require monitoring to evaluate their effectiveness in reducing loads over time. However, load estimation is not a trivial task due to the complex behaviour of constituents in natural streams, the variability of water flows and often a limited amount of data. Regression is commonly used for load estimation and provides a fundamental tool for trend estimation by standardising the other time specific covariates such as flow. This study investigates whether load estimates and resultant power to detect trends can be enhanced by (i) modelling the error structure so that temporal correlation can be better quantified, (ii) making use of predictive variables, and (iii) by identifying an efficient and feasible sampling strategy that may be used to reduce sampling error. To achieve this, we propose a new regression model that includes an innovative compounding errors model structure and uses two additional predictive variables (average discounted flow and turbidity). By combining this modelling approach with a new, regularly optimised, sampling strategy, which adds uniformity to the event sampling strategy, the predictive power was increased to 90%. Using the enhanced regression model proposed here, it was possible to detect a trend of 20% over 20 years. This result is in stark contrast to previous conclusions presented in the literature. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonparametric rank regression for analyzing water quality concentration data with multiple detection limits

Environmental data usually include measurements, such as water quality data, which fall below detection limits, because of limitations of the instruments or of certain analytical methods used. The fact that some responses are not detected needs to be properly taken into account in statistical analysis of such data. However, it is well-known that it is challenging to analyze a data set with detection limits, and we often have to rely on the traditional parametric methods or simple imputation methods. Distributional assumptions can lead to biased inference and justification of distributions is often not possible when the data are correlated and there is a large proportion of data below detection limits. The extent of bias is usually unknown. To draw valid conclusions and hence provide useful advice for environmental management authorities, it is essential to develop and apply an appropriate statistical methodology. This paper proposes rank-based procedures for analyzing non-normally distributed data collected at different sites over a period of time in the presence of multiple detection limits. To take account of temporal correlations within each site, we propose an optimal linear combination of estimating functions and apply the induced smoothing method to reduce the computational burden. Finally, we apply the proposed method to the water quality data collected at Susquehanna River Basin in United States of America, which dearly demonstrates the advantages of the rank regression models.

Statistical power calculation and sample size determination for environmental studies with data below detection limits

Power calculation and sample size determination are critical in designing environmental monitoring programs. The traditional approach based on comparing the mean values may become statistically inappropriate and even invalid when substantial proportions of the response values are below the detection limits or censored because strong distributional assumptions have to be made on the censored observations when implementing the traditional procedures. In this paper, we propose a quantile methodology that is robust to outliers and can also handle data with a substantial proportion of below-detection-limit observations without the need of imputing the censored values. As a demonstration, we applied the methods to a nutrient monitoring project, which is a part of the Perth Long-Term Ocean Outlet Monitoring Program. In this example, the sample size required by our quantile methodology is, in fact, smaller than that by the traditional t-test, illustrating the merit of our method.

Thin-Layer Chromatography with Ultraviolet and Mass Spectrometric Detection: From Preparative-Layer to Miniaturized Ultra-Thin-Layer Technique

The present challenge in drug discovery is to synthesize new compounds efficiently in minimal time. The trend is towards carefully designed and well-characterized compound libraries because fast and effective synthesis methods easily produce thousands of new compounds. The need for rapid and reliable analysis methods is increased at the same time. Quality assessment, including the identification and purity tests, is highly important since false (negative or positive) results, for instance in tests of biological activity or determination of early-ADME parameters in vitro (the pharmacokinetic study of drug absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion), must be avoided. This thesis summarizes the principles of classical planar chromatographic separation combined with ultraviolet (UV) and mass spectrometric (MS) detection, and introduces powerful, rapid, easy, low-cost, and alternative tools and techniques for qualitative and quantitative analysis of small drug or drug-like molecules. High performance thin-layer chromatography (HPTLC) was introduced and evaluated for fast semi-quantitative assessment of the purity of synthesis target compounds. HPTLC methods were compared with the liquid chromatography (LC) methods. Electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI MS) and atmospheric pressure matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization MS (AP MALDI MS) were used to identify and confirm the product zones on the plate. AP MALDI MS was rapid, and easy to carry out directly on the plate without scraping. The PLC method was used to isolate target compounds from crude synthesized products and purify them for bioactivity and preliminary ADME tests. Ultra-thin-layer chromatography (UTLC) with AP MALDI MS and desorption electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (DESI MS) was introduced and studied for the first time. Because of the thinner adsorbent layer, the monolithic UTLC plate provided 10 100 times better sensitivity in MALDI analysis than did HPTLC plates. The limits of detection (LODs) down to low picomole range were demonstrated for UTLC AP MALDI and UTLC DESI MS. In a comparison of AP and vacuum MALDI MS detection for UTLC plates, desorption from the irregular surface of the plates with the combination of an external AP MALDI ion source and an ion trap instrument provided clearly less variation in mass accuracy than the vacuum MALDI time-of-flight (TOF) instrument. The performance of the two-dimensional (2D) UTLC separation with AP MALDI MS method was studied for the first time. The influence of the urine matrix on the separation and the repeatability was evaluated with benzodiazepines as model substances in human urine. The applicability of 2D UTLC AP MALDI MS was demonstrated in the detection of metabolites in an authentic urine sample.

Investigating physical properties of solid dosage forms during pharmaceutical processing : Process analytical applications of vibrational spectroscopy

In order to improve and continuously develop the quality of pharmaceutical products, the process analytical technology (PAT) framework has been adopted by the US Food and Drug Administration. One of the aims of PAT is to identify critical process parameters and their effect on the quality of the final product. Real time analysis of the process data enables better control of the processes to obtain a high quality product. The main purpose of this work was to monitor crucial pharmaceutical unit operations (from blending to coating) and to examine the effect of processing on solid-state transformations and physical properties. The tools used were near-infrared (NIR) and Raman spectroscopy combined with multivariate data analysis, as well as X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD) and terahertz pulsed imaging (TPI). To detect process-induced transformations in active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), samples were taken after blending, granulation, extrusion, spheronisation, and drying. These samples were monitored by XRPD, Raman, and NIR spectroscopy showing hydrate formation in the case of theophylline and nitrofurantoin. For erythromycin dihydrate formation of the isomorphic dehydrate was critical. Thus, the main focus was on the drying process. NIR spectroscopy was applied in-line during a fluid-bed drying process. Multivariate data analysis (principal component analysis) enabled detection of the dehydrate formation at temperatures above 45°C. Furthermore, a small-scale rotating plate device was tested to provide an insight into film coating. The process was monitored using NIR spectroscopy. A calibration model, using partial least squares regression, was set up and applied to data obtained by in-line NIR measurements of a coating drum process. The predicted coating thickness agreed with the measured coating thickness. For investigating the quality of film coatings TPI was used to create a 3-D image of a coated tablet. With this technique it was possible to determine coating layer thickness, distribution, reproducibility, and uniformity. In addition, it was possible to localise defects of either the coating or the tablet. It can be concluded from this work that the applied techniques increased the understanding of physico-chemical properties of drugs and drug products during and after processing. They additionally provided useful information to improve and verify the quality of pharmaceutical dosage forms

Expansivity of liquid (cyclohexane + acetic anhydride) near its critical solution point

A simple volume dilatometer is described for the precise measurements of volume changes as a function of temperature in liquid mixtures. The expansivity of (cyclohexane + acetic anhydride) in the critical region was measured. The critical solution temperature Tc was approached to within 9 mK. For T > (Tc + 0.3 K), the results results follow both a logarithmic and a power-law behaviour with an exponent ≈ 1/8. But for T < (Tc + 0.3 K), the results seem to be affected possibly by gravity or temperature gradients. In this region, the expected expansivity anomaly is rounded off to a cusp. The expansivity shows a reduced anomaly for off-critical compositions. A discussion of the local extremum and a correlation between negative expansivity and the resistivity anomaly are also given.

Influence of environmental and instrumental variables on the non-invasive prediction of Brix in pineapple using near infrared spectroscopy

The Brix content of pineapple fruit can be non-invasively predicted from the second derivative of near infrared reflectance spectra. Correlations obtained using a NIRSystems 6500 spectrophotometer through multiple linear regression and modified partial least squares analyses using a post-dispersive configuration were comparable with that from a pre-dispersive configuration in terms of accuracy (e.g. coefficient of determination, R2, 0.73; standard error of cross validation, SECV, 1.01°Brix). The effective depth of sample assessed was slightly greater using the post-dispersive technique (about 20 mm for pineapple fruit), as expected in relation to the higher incident light intensity, relative to the pre-dispersive configuration. The effect of such environmental variables as temperature, humidity and external light, and instrumental variables such as the number of scans averaged to form a spectrum, were considered with respect to the accuracy and precision of the measurement of absorbance at 876 nm, as a key term in the calibration for Brix, and predicted Brix. The application of post-dispersive near infrared technology to in-line assessment of intact fruit in a packing shed environment is discussed.

Non-invasive assessment of pineapple and mango fruit quality using near infra-red spectroscopy

The potential of near infra-red (NIR) spectroscopy for non-invasive measurement of fruit quality of pineapple (Ananas comosus var. Smooth Cayenne) and mango (Magnifera indica var. Kensington) fruit was assessed. A remote reflectance fibre optic probe, placed in contact with the fruit skin surface in a light-proof box, was used to deliver monochromatic light to the fruit, and to collect NIR reflectance spectra (760–2500 nm). The probe illuminated and collected reflected radiation from an area of about 16 cm2. The NIR spectral attributes were correlated with pineapple juice Brix and with mango flesh dry matter (DM) measured from fruit flesh directly underlying the scanned area. The highest correlations for both fruit were found using the second derivative of the spectra (d2 log 1/R) and an additive calibration equation. Multiple linear regression (MLR) on pineapple fruit spectra (n = 85) gave a calibration equation using d2 log 1/R at wavelengths of 866, 760, 1232 and 832 nm with a multiple coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.75, and a standard error of calibration (SEC) of 1.21 °Brix. Modified partial least squares (MPLS) regression analysis yielded a calibration equation with R2 = 0.91, SEC = 0.69, and a standard error of cross validation (SECV) of 1.09 oBrix. For mango, MLR gave a calibration equation using d2 log 1/R at 904, 872, 1660 and 1516 nm with R2 = 0.90, and SEC = 0.85% DM and a bias of 0.39. Using MPLS analysis, a calibration equation with R2 = 0.98, SEC = 0.54 and SECV = 1.19 was obtained. We conclude that NIR technology offers the potential to assess fruit sweetness in intact whole pineapple and DM in mango fruit, respectively, to within 1° Brix and 1% DM, and could be used for the grading of fruit in fruit packing sheds.

Pheromone-trapping of Carpophilus spp. (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) in stone fruit orchards near Gosford, New South Wales: Fauna, seasonality and effect of insecticides

Traps baited with synthetic aggregation pheromones of Carpophilus hemipterus (L.), Carpophilus mutilatus Erichson and Carpophilus davidsoni Dobson and fermenting bread dough were used to identify the fauna and monitor the seasonal abundance of Carpophilus spp. in insecticide treated peach and nectarine orchards in the Gosford area of coastal New South Wales. In four orchards 67 178 beetles were trapped during 1994–1995, with C. davidsoni (82%) and Carpophilus gaveni (Dobson) (12.2%) dominating catches. Five species (C. hemipterus, C. mutilatus, Carpophilus marginellus Motschulsky, Carpophilus humeralis (F.) and an unidentified species) each accounted for 0.2–3.2% of trapped beetles. Carpophilus davidsoni was most abundant during late September–early October but numbers declined rapidly during October, usually before insecticides were applied. Spring populations of Carpophilus spp. were very large in 1994–1995 (1843–2588 per trap per week). However, despite a preharvest population decline of approximately 95% and 2–11 applications of insecticide, 14–545 beetles per trap per week (above the arbitrary fruit damage threshold of 10 beetles per trap per week) were recorded during the harvest period and fruit damage occurred at three of the four orchards. Lower preharvest populations in 1995–1996 (< 600 per trap per week) and up to six applications of insecticide resulted in < 10 beetles per trap per week during most of the harvest period and minimal or no fruit damage. The implications of these results for the integrated management of Carpophilus spp. in coastal and inland areas of southeastern Australia are discussed.

Learning Temporal Alignment Uncertainty for Efficient Event Detection

In this paper we tackle the problem of efficient video event detection. We argue that linear detection functions should be preferred in this regard due to their scalability and efficiency during estimation and evaluation. A popular approach in this regard is to represent a sequence using a bag of words (BOW) representation due to its: (i) fixed dimensionality irrespective of the sequence length, and (ii) its ability to compactly model the statistics in the sequence. A drawback to the BOW representation, however, is the intrinsic destruction of the temporal ordering information. In this paper we propose a new representation that leverages the uncertainty in relative temporal alignments between pairs of sequences while not destroying temporal ordering. Our representation, like BOW, is of a fixed dimensionality making it easily integrated with a linear detection function. Extensive experiments on CK+, 6DMG, and UvA-NEMO databases show significant performance improvements across both isolated and continuous event detection tasks.

Genetic variability of Tomato spotted wilt virus in Australia and validation of real time RT-PCR for its detection in single and bulked leaf samples

The potential for large-scale use of a sensitive real time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay was evaluated for the detection of Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in single and bulked leaf samples by comparing its sensitivity with that of DAS-ELISA. Using total RNA extracted with RNeasy® or leaf soak methods, real time RT-PCR detected TSWV in all infected samples collected from 16 horticultural crop species (including flowers, herbs and vegetables), two arable crop species, and four weed species by both assays. In samples in which DAS-ELISA had previously detected TSWV, real time RT-PCR was effective at detecting it in leaf tissues of all 22 plant species tested at a wide range of concentrations. Bulk samples required more robust and extensive extraction methods with real time RT-PCR, but it generally detected one infected sample in 1000 uninfected ones. By contrast, ELISA was less sensitive when used to test bulked samples, once detecting up to 1 infected in 800 samples with pepper but never detecting more than 1 infected in 200 samples in tomato and lettuce. It was also less reliable than real time RT-PCR when used to test samples from parts of the leaf where the virus concentration was low. The genetic variability among Australian isolates of TSWV was small. Direct sequencing of a 587 bp region of the nucleoprotein gene (S RNA) of 29 isolates from diverse crops and geographical locations yielded a maximum of only 4.3% nucleotide sequence difference. Phylogenetic analysis revealed no obvious groupings of isolates according to geographic origin or host species. TSWV isolates, that break TSWV resistance genes in tomato or pepper did not differ significantly in the N gene region studied, indicating that a different region of the virus genome is responsible for this trait.

A simplified PCR test for early detection of dwarf off-types in micropropagated Cavendish bananas (Musa spp. AAA)

The dwarf somaclonal variant is a major problem affecting micropropagation of the banana cultivar Williams (Musa spp. AAA; subgroup Cavendish). This problem arises from genetic changes that occur during the tissue culture process. Early identification of this problem is difficult and propagators must wait until plants are ex vitro in order to visualise the dwarfism phenotype. In this study, we have improved a SCAR-based molecular diagnostic technique, developed by Damasco et al. [Acta Hortic. 461 (1997) 157], for the early identification of dwarf off-types. We have included a positive internal control in a multiplex PCR and adapted the technique for use with small amounts of fresh in vitro leaf material as PCR template. The control product is a 500 bp fragment from 18S rRNA and is amplified in all tissues irrespective of phenotype. The use of small in vitro leaf material removing the need for genomic DNA extraction.

Characterisation and early detection of an offtype from micropropagated Lady Finger bananas

An offtype has been identified from micropropagated Lady Finger bananas (Musa spp., AAB group, Pome subgroup) that is characterised by its slow growth and poor bunch size. Bunch weights were approximately 25% those of normal Lady Finger plants and all of the fruit produced was unmarketable. This particular offtype is the most commonly encountered from micropropagated Lady Finger plants and, in 2 instances, blocks of 3000 and 1500 plants were entirely comprised of this single offtype. Detection of offtype plants was possible during establishment and growth of plants in the glasshouse by the presence of chlorotic streaks in the leaves. In more severe cases the streaks coalesced into chlorotic patches that developed thin, necrotic areas that eventually produced holes or splits in the leaves. Symptom expression was not ameliorated by the addition of fertiliser and even though symptoms were similar to severe Ca and B deficiency, both normal and offtype plants had similar levels of these elements in the leaves. The offtype plants were also slow growing in the glasshouse and produced significantly (P<0.05) smaller pseudostems and leaves than normal plants. Offtype plants could be readily detected after 4 weeks deflasking using the presence of chlorotic streaks in the leaves as the main selection criterion. Maximum discrimination was possible between weeks 5–7 and at the 6-leaf stage when all of the offtypes could be detected.

Near infrared reflectance as a rapid and inexpensive surrogate measure for fatty acid composition and oil content in peanuts (Arachis hypogaea L.)

The fatty acid composition of ground nuts (Arachis hypogaea L.) commonly known as peanuts, is an important consideration when a new variety is being released. The composition impacts on nutrition and, importantly, self-life of peanut products. To select for suitable breeding material, it was necessary to develop a rapid, non-derstructive and cost-efficient method. Near infrared spectroscopy was chosen as that methodology. Calibrations were developed for two major fatty-acid components, oleic and linoleic acids and two minor components, palmitic and stearic acids, as well as total oil content. Partial least squares models indicated a high level of precision with a squared multiple correlation coefficient of greater than 0.90 for each constitutent. Standard errors for prediction for oleic, linoleic, palmitic, stearic acids and total oil content were 6.4%, 4.5%, 0.8%, 0.9% and 1.3% respectively. The results demonstrated that reasonable calibrations could be developed to predict oil composition and content of peanuts for a breeding programme.