Excess entry, ambiguity seeking and competence: An experimental investigation

Excess entry refers to the high failure rate of new entrepreneurial ventures. Economic explanations suggest 'hit and run' entrants and risk-seeking behavior. A psychological explanation is that people (entrepreneurs) are overconfident in their abilities (Camerer & Lovallo, 1999). Characterizing entry decisions as ambiguous gambles, we alternatively suggest following Heath and Tversky (1991) that people seek ambiguity when the source of uncertainty is related to their competence. Overconfidence, as such, plays no role. This hypothesis is confirmed in an experimental study that also documents the phenomenon of reference group neglect. Finally, we emphasize the utility that people gain from engaging in activities that contribute to a sense of competence. This is an important force in economic activity that deserves more explicit attention.

Partisan competition, growth and the franchise

We present an argument for changes in the franchise in which an elite split along economic interests use the suffrage to influence implemented policies. Through the influence of these policies on the character of industrialization, we analyze the effects of franchise changes on economic growth. We identify in the social structure of society an explanation for the connection between enfranchisement and growth: When (1) there exist an economic conflict among the elite, (2) landed classes are not politically strong, and (3) there exists a critical mass of industrial workers, we observe both growth and democratization. The lack of conditions (1) or (2) resolves in stagnant autocracies while the absence of condition (3) drives growth-deterring democratic expansions. We provide historical support for our argument by analyzing the experience of 11 countries.

The determinants of pricing in pharmaceuticals: Are U.S. prices really higher than those of Canada?

This paper studies price determination in pharmaceutical markets using data for 25 countries, six years and a comprehensive list of products from the MIDAS IMS database. We show that market power and the quality of the product has a significantly positive impact of prices. The nationality of the producer appears to have a small and often insignificant impact on prices, which suggests that countries which regulates prices have relatively little power to do it in a way that advances narrow national interest. We produce a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on the fact that low negotiated prices in a country would have a knock-on effect in other markets, and is thus strongly resisted by producers.Another key finding is that the U.S. has prices that are not significantly higher than those of countries with similar income levels. This, together with the former observation on the effect of the nationality of producers casts doubt on the ability of countries to pursue "free-riding" regulation.

Concepções, Práxis e Tendências de Desenvolvimento Curricular no Ensino Superior Público em Cabo Verde: um Estudo de Caso Sobre a Universidade de Cabo Verde

A tese enquadra-se nas discussões sobre as concepções do currículo, como problemática central nos processos de educação e formação, e o papel da Universidade ao longo dos tempos, mormente nos contextos actuais da globalização, conferindo especial relevo às concepções, práxis e tendências que caracterizam a experiência de desenvolvimento curricular na Universidade de Cabo Verde (Uni-CV), desde a sua criação, em Novembro de 2006, no seguimento de um percurso de quase três décadas do ensino superior público cabo-verdiano Com o enquadramento teórico da problemática da investigação faz-se uma ampla cartografia da literatura relevante no campo científico dos estudos curriculares, numa abordagem que patenteia a diversidade de conceptualizações do currículo e do desenvolvimento curricular, os principais traços característicos das teorias curriculares que se têm sucedido e ou que rivalizam na busca de hegemonia no sector da educação, bem como as políticas educativas e curriculares que vêm sendo concebidas e realizadas à escala global, dispensando atenção particular às dimensões instituinte e instituída do processo curricular. Ainda que fortemente condicionado pelas concepções e políticas de globalização da educação, a tendência para a uniformização educativa e curricular não constitui uma inevitabilidade, demonstrando-se, pelo contrário, que o processo de desenvolvimento curricular deixa espaços de apropriação e inovação ao nível das instituições educativas, atendendo à diversidade de contextos, expectativas e perspectivas inerentes à dinâmica da realização do currículo. Ainda no plano teórico, ao analisar-se a evolução do conceito ou ideia de Universidade, desde a sua génese até aos tempos actuais, coloca-se em relevo a natureza específica da instituição no âmbito do ensino superior, patenteando o modo como, nos diferentes contextos, a mesma tem procurado afirmar a centralidade do conhecimento e do currículo no cumprimento da sua missão, a despeito de factores e condicionalismos diversos, de entre os quais releva o tipo de relacionamento predominante entre a Universidade, o Estado e o mercado, no âmbito do qual se deve entender a complexidade da crise institucional, na triplicidade das suas manifestações (crise de legitimidade, de hegemonia e de identidade) que atravessa a academia, com reflexos ao nível das tendências para o condicionamento da autonomia, missão e funções da academia, assim como da própria natureza do conhecimento universitário. Na procura de saídas para a crise, que é global e, como tal, se reflecte nas universidades do continente africano, em que se insere Cabo Verde, a Universidade é desafiada a afirmar a sua especificidade institucional, enquanto promotora da alta cultura e da capacidade de pensamento de longo prazo, conciliando, deste modo, as suas funções essenciais ou simbólicas com as que se prendem com a satisfação das necessidades imediatas ou de curto prazo da economia e do mercado. Com base nos pertinentes subsídios teóricos, os estudos empíricos desenvolvem-se segundo a abordagem metodológica de estudo de caso, em que a análise documental e as técnicas de investigação qualitativa e quantitativa permitiram consolidar as evidências sobre: (i) os antecedentes da criação da Uni-CV, através do mapeamento do percurso académico e curricular dos diversos estabelecimentos públicos de ensino superior que precederam a universidade pública, legando a esta o seu património científico, tecnológico e logístico, com as inerentes potencialidades e limitações; (ii) o processo de institucionalização da Uni-CV, com a referencialização das opções estruturantes da organização e gestão da Universidade assim como da política educativa e curricular da Universidade; (iii) a experiência multifacetada de desenvolvimento curricular na novel instituição durante os cinco primeiros anos de funcionamento (2006-2011), correlacionando opções e práxis e evidenciando tendências da sua evolução. Da análise interpretativa dos estudos empíricos realizados, mediante a triangulação dos dados de arquivo e de perspectiva, resulta que a Uni-CV, não obstante as fragilidades persistentes no processo de seu desenvolvimento institucional, tem cumprido a sua missão de forma satisfatória, facto que fica a dever-se quer à adequação das opções, normas e directivas conformadoras da dimensão instituinte do processo curricular, quer ao esforço de realização das prescrições curriculares, sendo, todavia, evidentes os desafios a serem vencidos tendo em vista a consecução da almejada excelência académica, que os Estatutos propugnam, e que passa, nomeadamente, pela melhoria do nível da qualificação do seu corpo docente, pela implementação ou funcionamento efectivo de alguns dos órgãos da academia e pela afirmação da investigação científica como função incontornável para o desempenho cabal das funções de ensino e extensão. De entre as conclusões, sustenta-se que, no processo de integração de Cabo Verde nas redes internacionais de investigação e excelência científica e tecnológica, como, de resto, propugnam os Estatutos da Uni-CV, deve atender-se à especificidade deste pequeno país do Atlântico Médio, tendo em conta as suas fragilidades estruturais, pelo que se impõe algum distanciamento crítico em relação à incorporação de certas opções de política educativa e curricular que emanam de instâncias internacionais, independentemente do seu carácter inovador ou mesmo da sua possível consistência científica e técnica, comprovada em outros contextos.

Shocks and institutions in a job matching model

This paper explains the divergent behavior of European an US unemploymentrates using a job market matching model of the labor market with aninteraction between shocks an institutions. It shows that a reduction inTF growth rates, an increase in real interest rates, and an increase intax rates leads to a permanent increase in unemployment rates when thereplacement rates or initial tax rates are high, while no increase inunemployment occurs when institutions are "employment friendly". The paperalso shows that an increase in turbulence, modelle as an increase probabilityof skill loss, is not a robust explanation for the European unemploymentpuzzle in the context of a matching model with both endogenous job creationand job estruction.

Wealth, financial intermediation and growth

This paper presents empirical support for the existence of wealth effects in the contribution of financial intermediation to economic growth, and offers a theoretical explanation for these effects. Using GMM dynamic panel data techniques applied to study the growth-promoting effects of financial intermediation, we show that the exogenous contribution of financial development on economic growth has different effects for different levels of income per capita. We find that this contribution is generally increasing with thelevel of income per capita of the economy, up to a relatively high level of income. This contribution is consistently lower for poor countries; and for some low levels of income per capita it can be negative. We provide a model to account for these wealth effects. The model is a overlapping generations growth model where financial intermediaries implement liquidity risk sharing among depositors. We show that at early stages of economic development, a bank can increase welfare of its depositors only at the cost of lowering investment and growth. However, once the economy has crossed certain wealth threshold, the liquidity role of banks becomes unambiguously growth enhancing. As wealth increases, banks offer improving liquidity insurance, and higher growth; however, for high levels of wealth, growth generated byfinancial intermediation declines as the economy attains the optimal level of consumption risk sharing.

Education, growth and income inequality

Estimates of the e¤ect of education on GDP (the social return to education)have been hard to reconcile with micro evidence on the private return. We present a simple explanation that combines two ideas: imperfect substitution between worker types and endogenous skill biased technological progress. When types of workers are imperfect substitutes, the supply of human capital is negatively related to its return, and a higher education level compresses wage di¤erentials. We use cross-country panel data on income inequality to estimate the private return and GDP data to estimate the social return. The results show that the private return falls by 2 percentage points when the average education level increases by a year, which is consistent with Katz and Murphy's [1992] estimate of the elasticity of substitution between worker types. We find no evidence for dynamics in the private return, and certainly not for a reversal of the negative e¤ect as described in Acemoglu [2002]. The short run social return equals the private return.

The dog that did not bark: Insider trading and crashes

This paper documents that at the individual stock level insiders sales peak many months before a large drop in the stock price, while insiders purchases peak only the month before a large jump. We provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on trading constraints and asymmetric information. We test our hypothesis against competing stories such as patterns of insider trading driven by earnings announcement dates, or insiders timing their trades to evade prosecution. Finally we provide new evidence regarding crashes and the degree of information asymmetry.

Credit constraints, firms' precautionary investment and the business cycle

This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of firms' investment composition choices in the presence of credit constraints. Following a negative andpersistent aggregate productivity shock, firms shift into short-term investments because they produce more pledgeable output and because they help alleviate futureborrowing constraints. This produces a short-run dampening of the effects of theshock, at the expense of lower long-term investment and future output, relativeto an economy with no credit market imperfections. The effects are exacerbatedby a steepening of the term structure of interest rates that further encourages ashift towards short-term investments in the short-run. Small temporary shocks tothe severity of financing frictions generate large and long-lasting effects on outputthrough their impact on the composition of investment. A positive financial shockproduces much stronger effects than an identical negative shock, while the responsesto positive and negative shocks to aggregate productivity are roughly symmetric.Finally, the paper introduces a novel explanation for the countercyclicality of financing constraints of firms.

What form of relative performance evaluation?

We study relative performance evaluation in executive compensation whenexecutives have private information about their ability. We assume that thejoint distribution of an individual firm s profit and market movements dependson the ability of the executive that runs the firm. In the equilibrium of theexecutive labor market, compensation schemes exploit this fact to sortexecutives of di ?erent abilities. This implies that executive compensation isincreasing in own performance, but may also be increasing in industryperformance-a sharp departure from standard relative performance evaluation.This result provides an explanation for the scarcity of relative performanceconsiderations in executive compensation documented by the empirical literature.

Role of the NALP3 Inflammasome in the Development of Two-Kidney, One Clip Hypertension in Mice

Objective: The NALP3 inflammasome functions as a sensor of danger signals and triggers processing and release of IL-1b. Mutations of NALP3 are responsible for the cryopyrin associated periodic syndromes, a group of autoinflammatory disorders that respond to IL1 inhibition. Genetic studies have also linked NALP3 to hypertension in man, but the mechanism is not understood. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of NAPL3 inflammasome in the development of hypertension in an animal model. Design and Method: Six-week old male WT and NALP3 KO mice were used for generating a two-kidney, one clip (2K1C) renovascular hypertension. A U-shaped stainless steel clip (O^ ¼0.12mm) was placed on left renal artery under anaesthesia. The same surgery without clipping was performed in sham mice. At week 6 and 12 after the clipping, intra-arterial blood pressure (BP) was measured in conscious mice. Blood was collected for plasma renin analysis. Heart and kidney were excised and stored for molecular and morphological examinations. n¼5-6 mice per group. Data are mean_SEM. Results: Mean BP was significantly increased at week 6 and 12 in WT-2K1C mice compared to WT-sham group (MBPweek6: 138_2 vs.124_3 mmHg, p<0.01 and MBPweek12: 141_5 vs.122_3 mmHg, p<0.01) followed with an significant increase in heart weight (HW) and a decrease in clipped kidney weight indices in WT-2K1C mice compared to the WT-sham (HW/ BWweek6: 4.65_0.04 vs. 3.99_0.12 mg/g, p<0.001 and HW/BWweek12: 4.94_0.15 vs. 4.22_0.12 mg/g, p<0.001). Interestingly, NALP3 KO-2K1C mice did not develop hypertension. The MBP of KO-2K1C mice was comparable to the KO-sham (MBPweek6: 122_3 vs. 119_3 mmHg, p>0.05 and MBPweek6: 128_5 vs.122_4 mmHg, p>0.05). There was also no significant change in heart and kidney weight indices between KO- 2K1C and KO-sham mice. Conclusion: The preliminary results suggest that absence of NALP3 protects mice from the development of renin-dependent hypertension. Further molecular and morphological examinations are ongoing for the confirmation and mechanism explanation.

Drug innovation, prices and health

This article tries to reconcile economic-industrial policy with health policy when dealing with biomedical innovation and welfare state sustainability. Better health accounts for an increasingly large proportion of welfare improvements. Explanation is given to the welfare losses coming from the fact than industrial and health policy tend to ignore each other. Drug s prices reflecting their relative relative effectiveness send the right signal to the industry rewarding innovation with impact on quantity and quality of life- and to the buyers of health care services.The level of drug s public reimbursement indicates the social willingness to pay of the different national health systems, not only by means of inclusion, or rejection, in the basket of services covered, but especially establishing the proportion of the price that is going to be financed publicly.Reference pricing for therapeutic equivalents as the upper limit of the social willingness to pay- and two-tiered co-payments for users (avoidable and inversely related with the incremental effectiveness of de drug) are deemed appropriate for those countries concerned at the same time with increasing their productivity and maintaining its welfare state. Profits drive R&D but not its location. There is no intrinsic contradiction between high productivity and a consolidated National Health Service (welfare state) as the European Nordic Countries are telling us every day.

Geographical deviations in foreign trade statistics: A study into European trade with Latin American Countries, 1925

We have analyzed the spatial accuracy of European foreign trade statistics compared to Latin American. We have also included USA s data because of the importance of this country in Latin American trade. We have developed a method for mapping discrepancies between exporters and importers, trying to isolate systematic spatial deviations. Although our results don t allow a unique explanation, they present some interesting clues to the distribution channels in the Latin American Continent as well as some spatial deviations for statistics in individual countries. Connecting our results with the literature specialized in the accuracy of foreign trade statistics; we can revisit Morgernstern (1963) as well as Federico and Tena (1991). Morgernstern had had a really pessimistic view on the reliability of this statistic source, but his main alert was focused on the trade balances, not in gross export or import values. Federico and Tena (1991) have demonstrated howaccuracy increases by aggregation, geographical and of product at the same time. But they still have a pessimistic view with relation to distribution questions, remarking that perhaps it will be more accurate to use import sources in this latest case. We have stated that the data set coming from foreign trade statistics for a sample in 1925, being it exporters or importers, it s a valuable tool for geography of trade patterns, although in some specific cases it needs some spatial adjustments.

Dual-energy CT behavior of heroin, cocaine, and typical adulterants.

PURPOSE: To investigate the dual-energy CT behavior of cocaine and heroin and of typical adulterants, and to evaluate the elemental composition of pure cocaine and heroin compared with cocaine and heroin in bodypacks. METHODS: Pure heroin and pure synthetic cocaine samples, eight different adulterants, and in each case ten different bodypacks containing cocaine or heroin, were imaged at 80, 100, 120, and 140 kVp in a dual source CT system at two different degrees of compression. Two radiologists, blinded to the samples, measured the attenuation. The dual-energy index (DEI) was calculated. We performed atomic mass spectrometry for the elemental analysis of pure cocaine, pure heroin, and heroin and cocaine in bodypacks, and 140 kVp in a dual-source CT system. RESULTS: Inter- and intra-observer agreement for attenuation measurements was good (r = 0.61-0.72; p < 0.01). The cocaine bodypacks had a positive DEI of 0.029, while the pure drugs and the heroin bodypacks had a negative DEI (-0.051 to -0.027). Levamisole was the only substance which expressed a positive DEI of 0.011, while the remaining adulterants had negative DEIs ranging between -0.015 and -0.215. Atomic mass spectrometry revealed a concentration of tin in the cocaine bodypack that was 67 times higher than in the pure synthetic cocaine sample. CONCLUSIONS: The different DEIs of bodypacks containing cocaine and heroin allow them to be distinguished with dual-energy CT. Although the material properties of pure cocaine, pure heroin, or common drug extenders do not explain the differences in DEI, tin contamination during illicit natural cocaine production may be a possible explanation.

On the sources of the Great Moderation

The remarkable decline in macroeconomic volatility experienced by the U.S. economy since the mid-80s (the so-called Great Moderation) has been accompanied by large changes in the patterns of comovements among output, hours and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. That evidencepoints to structural change, as opposed to just good luck, as an explanation for the Great Moderation. We use a simple macro model to suggest some of the immediate sources which are likely to be behindthe observed changes.