Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

Coupling biomechanics to a cellular level model: An approach to patient-specific image driven multi-scale and multi-physics tumor simulation

Modeling of tumor growth has been performed according to various approaches addressing different biocomplexity levels and spatiotemporal scales. Mathematical treatments range from partial differential equation based diffusion models to rule-based cellular level simulators, aiming at both improving our quantitative understanding of the underlying biological processes and, in the mid- and long term, constructing reliable multi-scale predictive platforms to support patient-individualized treatment planning and optimization. The aim of this paper is to establish a multi-scale and multi-physics approach to tumor modeling taking into account both the cellular and the macroscopic mechanical level. Therefore, an already developed biomodel of clinical tumor growth and response to treatment is self-consistently coupled with a biomechanical model. Results are presented for the free growth case of the imageable component of an initially point-like glioblastoma multiforme tumor. The composite model leads to significant tumor shape corrections that are achieved through the utilization of environmental pressure information and the application of biomechanical principles. Using the ratio of smallest to largest moment of inertia of the tumor material to quantify the effect of our coupled approach, we have found a tumor shape correction of 20\% by coupling biomechanics to the cellular simulator as compared to a cellular simulation without preferred growth directions. We conclude that the integration of the two models provides additional morphological insight into realistic tumor growth behavior. Therefore, it might be used for the development of an advanced oncosimulator focusing on tumor types for which morphology plays an important role in surgical and/or radio-therapeutic treatment planning.

Effect of vascular targeting agent in rat tumor model: dynamic contrast-enhanced versus diffusion-weighted MR imaging

PURPOSE: To compare dynamic contrast material-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) imaging and diffusion-weighted MR imaging for noninvasive evaluation of early and late effects of a vascular targeting agent in a rat tumor model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study protocol was approved by the local ethics committee for animal care and use. Thirteen rats with one rhabdomyosarcoma in each flank (26 tumors) underwent dynamic contrast-enhanced imaging and diffusion-weighted echo-planar imaging in a 1.5-T MR unit before intraperitoneal injection of combretastatin A4 phosphate and at early (1 and 6 hours) and later (2 and 9 days) follow-up examinations after the injection. Histopathologic examination was performed at each time point. The apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of each tumor was calculated separately on the basis of diffusion-weighted images obtained with low b gradient values (ADC(low); b = 0, 50, and 100 sec/mm(2)) and high b gradient values (ADC(high); b = 500, 750, and 1000 sec/mm(2)). The difference between ADC(low) and ADC(high) was used as a surrogate measure of tissue perfusion (ADC(low) - ADC(high) = ADC(perf)). From the dynamic contrast-enhanced MR images, the volume transfer constant k and the initial slope of the contrast enhancement-time curve were calculated. For statistical analyses, a paired two-tailed Student t test and linear regression analysis were used. RESULTS: Early after administration of combretastatin, all perfusion-related parameters (k, initial slope, and ADC(perf)) decreased significantly (P < .001); at 9 days after combretastatin administration, they increased significantly (P < .001). Changes in ADC(perf) were correlated with changes in k (R(2) = 0.46, P < .001) and the initial slope (R(2) = 0.67, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Both dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging and diffusion-weighted MR imaging allow monitoring of perfusion changes induced by vascular targeting agents in tumors. Diffusion-weighted imaging provides additional information about intratumoral cell viability versus necrosis after administration of combretastatin.

Using state variables to model the response of tumour cells to radiation and heat: a novel multi-hit-repair approach

In order to overcome the limitations of the linear-quadratic model and include synergistic effects of heat and radiation, a novel radiobiological model is proposed. The model is based on a chain of cell populations which are characterized by the number of radiation induced damages (hits). Cells can shift downward along the chain by collecting hits and upward by a repair process. The repair process is governed by a repair probability which depends upon state variables used for a simplistic description of the impact of heat and radiation upon repair proteins. Based on the parameters used, populations up to 4-5 hits are relevant for the calculation of the survival. The model describes intuitively the mathematical behaviour of apoptotic and nonapoptotic cell death. Linear-quadratic-linear behaviour of the logarithmic cell survival, fractionation, and (with one exception) the dose rate dependencies are described correctly. The model covers the time gap dependence of the synergistic cell killing due to combined application of heat and radiation, but further validation of the proposed approach based on experimental data is needed. However, the model offers a work bench for testing different biological concepts of damage induction, repair, and statistical approaches for calculating the variables of state.

Imaging of pulmonary embolism and t-PA therapy effects using MDCT and liposomal iohexol blood pool agent – preliminary results in a rabbit model

Hypothesis and Objectives PEGylated liposomal blood pool contrast agents maintain contrast enhancement over several hours. This study aimed to evaluate (long-term) imaging of pulmonary arteries, comparing conventional iodinated contrast with a liposomal blood pool contrast agent. Secondly, visualization of the (real-time) therapeutic effects of tissue-Plasminogen Activator (t-PA) on pulmonary embolism (PE) was attempted. Materials and Methods Six rabbits (approximate 4 kg weight) had autologous blood clots injected through the superior vena cava. Imaging was performed using conventional contrast (iohexol, 350 mg I/ml, GE HealthCare, Princeton, NJ) at a dose of 1400 mgI per animal and after wash-out, animals were imaged using an iodinated liposomal blood pool agent (88 mg I/mL, dose 900 mgI/animal). Subsequently, five animals were injected with 2mg t-PA and imaging continued for up to 4 ½ hours. Results Both contrast agents identified PE in the pulmonary trunk and main pulmonary arteries in all rabbits. Liposomal blood pool agent yielded uniform enhancement, which remained relatively constant throughout the experiments. Conventional agents exhibited non uniform opacification and rapid clearance post injection. Three out of six rabbits had mistimed bolus injections, requiring repeat injections. Following t-PA, Pulmonary embolus volume (central to segmental) decreased in four of five treated rabbits (range 10–57%, mean 42%). One animal showed no response to t-PA. Conclusions Liposomal blood pool agents effectively identified acute PE without need for re-injection. PE resolution following t-PA was quantifiable over several hours. Blood pool agents offer the potential for repeated imaging procedures without need for repeated (nephrotoxic) contrast injections

Imaging of pulmonary embolism and t-PA therapy effects using MDCT and liposomal iohexol blood pool agent: preliminary results in a rabbit model.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Polyethylene glycol-coated liposomal blood pool contrast agents maintain contrast enhancement over several hours. This study aimed to evaluate (long-term) imaging of pulmonary arteries, comparing conventional iodinated contrast with a liposomal blood pool contrast agent. Also, visualization of the (real-time) therapeutic effects of tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) on pulmonary embolism (PE) was attempted. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Six rabbits (weight approximately 4 kg) had autologous blood clots injected through the superior vena cava. Imaging was performed using conventional contrast (iohexol, 350 mg I/ml; GE HealthCare, Princeton, NJ) at a dose of 1400 mg I per animal, and after wash-out, animals were imaged using an iodinated liposomal blood pool agent (88 mg I/mL, dose 900 mg I/animal). Subsequently, five animals were injected with 2 mg of t-PA and imaging continued for up to 4(1/2) hours. RESULTS: Both contrast agents identified PE in the pulmonary trunk and main pulmonary arteries in all rabbits. Liposomal blood pool agent yielded uniform enhancement, which remained relatively constant throughout the experiments. Conventional agents exhibited nonuniform opacification and rapid clearance postinjection. Three of six rabbits had mistimed bolus injections, requiring repeat injections. Following t-PA, pulmonary embolus volume (central to segmental) decreased in four of five treated rabbits (range 10-57%, mean 42%). One animal showed no response to t-PA. CONCLUSIONS: Liposomal blood pool agents effectively identified acute PE without need for reinjection. PE resolution following t-PA was quantifiable over several hours. Blood pool agents offer the potential for repeated imaging procedures without need for repeated (nephrotoxic) contrast injections.

An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation: Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon cycle projections

An Ensemble Kalman Filter is applied to assimilate observed tracer fields in various combinations in the Bern3D ocean model. Each tracer combination yields a set of optimal transport parameter values that are used in projections with prescribed CO2 stabilization pathways. The assimilation of temperature and salinity fields yields a too vigorous ventilation of the thermocline and the deep ocean, whereas the inclusion of CFC-11 and radiocarbon improves the representation of physical and biogeochemical tracers and of ventilation time scales. Projected peak uptake rates and cumulative uptake of CO2 by the ocean are around 20% lower for the parameters determined with CFC-11 and radiocarbon as additional target compared to those with salinity and temperature only. Higher surface temperature changes are simulated in the Greenland–Norwegian–Iceland Sea and in the Southern Ocean when CFC-11 is included in the Ensemble Kalman model tuning. These findings highlights the importance of ocean transport calibration for the design of near-term and long-term CO2 emission mitigation strategies and for climate projections.