Regional ocean-colour chlorophyll algorithms for the Red Sea

The Red Sea is a semi-enclosed tropical marine ecosystem that stretches from the Gulf of Suez and Gulf of Aqaba in the north, to the Gulf of Aden in the south. Despite its ecological and economic importance, its biological environment is relatively unexplored. Satellite ocean-colour estimates of chlorophyll concentration (an index of phytoplankton biomass) offer an observational platform to monitor the health of the Red Sea. However, little is known about the optical properties of the region. In this paper, we investigate the optical properties of the Red Sea in the context of satellite ocean-colour estimates of chlorophyll concentration. Making use of a new merged ocean-colour product, from the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative, and in situ data in the region, we test the performance of a series of ocean-colour chlorophyll algorithms. We find that standard algorithms systematically overestimate chlorophyll when compared with the in situ data. To investigate this bias we develop an ocean-colour model for the Red Sea, parameterised to data collected during the Tara Oceans expedition, that estimates remote-sensing reflectance as a function of chlorophyll concentration. We used the Red Sea model to tune the standard chlorophyll algorithms and the overestimation in chlorophyll originally observed was corrected. Results suggest that the overestimation was likely due to an excess of CDOM absorption per unit chlorophyll in the Red Sea when compared with average global conditions. However, we recognise that additional information is required to test the influence of other potential sources of the overestimation, such as aeolian dust, and we discuss uncertainties in the datasets used. We present a series of regional chlorophyll algorithms for the Red Sea, designed for a suite of ocean-colour sensors, that may be used for further testing.

Global carbon budget 2014

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), E-FF was 8.9 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.9 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2013 alone, E-FF grew to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 5.4 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in E-FF and smaller and opposite changes between S-OCEAN and S-LAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5 %) to 10.1 +/- 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 +/- 2.2 GtCO(2) yr(-1)), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E-LUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 +/- 55 GtC (2000 +/- 200 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2014, about 75% from E-FF and 25% from E-LUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quere et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

Dynamics of air–sea CO2 fluxes in the northwestern European shelf based on voluntary observing ship and satellite observations

From January 2011 to December 2013, we constructed a comprehensive pCO2 data set based on voluntary observing ship (VOS) measurements in the western English Channel (WEC). We subsequently estimated surface pCO2 and air–sea CO2 fluxes in northwestern European continental shelf waters using multiple linear regressions (MLRs) from remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a), wind speed (WND), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and modeled mixed layer depth (MLD). We developed specific MLRs for the seasonally stratified northern WEC (nWEC) and the permanently well-mixed southern WEC (sWEC) and calculated surface pCO2 with uncertainties of 17 and 16 μatm, respectively. We extrapolated the relationships obtained for the WEC based on the 2011–2013 data set (1) temporally over a decade and (2) spatially in the adjacent Celtic and Irish seas (CS and IS), two regions which exhibit hydrographical and biogeochemical characteristics similar to those of WEC waters. We validated these extrapolations with pCO2 data from the SOCAT and LDEO databases and obtained good agreement between modeled and observed data. On an annual scale, seasonally stratified systems acted as a sink of CO2 from the atmosphere of −0.6 ± 0.3, −0.9 ± 0.3 and −0.5 ± 0.3 mol C m−2 yr−1 in the northern Celtic Sea, southern Celtic sea and nWEC, respectively, whereas permanently well-mixed systems acted as source of CO2 to the atmosphere of 0.2 ± 0.2 and 0.3 ± 0.2 mol C m−2 yr−1 in the sWEC and IS, respectively. Air–sea CO2 fluxes showed important inter-annual variability resulting in significant differences in the intensity and/or direction of annual fluxes. We scaled the mean annual fluxes over these provinces for the last decade and obtained the first annual average uptake of −1.11 ± 0.32 Tg C yr−1 for this part of the northwestern European continental shelf. Our study showed that combining VOS data with satellite observations can be a powerful tool to estimate and extrapolate air–sea CO2 fluxes in sparsely sampled area.

An assessment of phytoplankton primary productivity in the Arctic Ocean from satellite ocean color/in situ chlorophyll-abased models

We investigated 32 net primary productivity (NPP) models by assessing skills to reproduce integrated NPP in the Arctic Ocean. The models were provided with two sources each of surface chlorophyll-a concentration (chlorophyll), photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), sea surface temperature (SST), and mixed-layer depth (MLD). The models were most sensitive to uncertainties in surface chlorophyll, generally performing better with in situ chlorophyll than with satellite-derived values. They were much less sensitive to uncertainties in PAR, SST, and MLD, possibly due to relatively narrow ranges of input data and/or relatively little difference between input data sources. Regardless of type or complexity, most of the models were not able to fully reproduce the variability of in situ NPP, whereas some of them exhibited almost no bias (i.e., reproduced the mean of in situ NPP). The models performed relatively well in low-productivity seasons as well as in sea ice-covered/deep-water regions. Depth-resolved models correlated more with in situ NPP than other model types, but had a greater tendency to overestimate mean NPP whereas absorption-based models exhibited the lowest bias associated with weaker correlation. The models performed better when a subsurface chlorophyll-a maximum (SCM) was absent. As a group, the models overestimated mean NPP, however this was partly offset by some models underestimating NPP when a SCM was present. Our study suggests that NPP models need to be carefully tuned for the Arctic Ocean because most of the models performing relatively well were those that used Arctic-relevant parameters.

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

Uncertainty estimates of remote sensing reflectance derived from comparison of ocean color satellite data sets

Assigning uncertainty to ocean-color satellite products is a requirement to allow informed use of these data. Here, uncertainty estimates are derived using the comparison on a 12th-degree grid of coincident daily records of the remote-sensing reflectance RRS obtained with the same processing chain from three satellite missions, MERIS, MODIS and SeaWiFS. The approach is spatially resolved and produces σ, the part of the RRS uncertainty budget associated with random effects. The global average of σ decreases with wavelength from approximately 0.7– 0.9 10−3 sr−1 at 412 nm to 0.05–0.1 10−3 sr−1 at the red band, with uncertainties on σ evaluated as 20–30% between 412 and 555 nm, and 30–40% at 670 nm. The distribution of σ shows a restricted spatial variability and small variations with season, which makes the multi-annual global distribution of σ an estimate applicable to all retrievals of the considered missions. The comparison of σ with other uncertainty estimates derived from field data or with the support of algorithms provides a consistent picture. When translated in relative terms, and assuming a relatively low bias, the distribution of σ suggests that the objective of a 5% uncertainty is fulfilled between 412 and 490 nm for oligotrophic waters (chlorophyll-a concentration below 0.1 mg m−3). This study also provides comparison statistics. Spectrally, the mean absolute relative difference between RRS from different missions shows a characteristic U-shape with both ends at blue and red wavelengths inversely related to the amplitude of RRS. On average and for the considered data sets, SeaWiFS RRS tend to be slightly higher than MODIS RRS, which in turn appear higher than MERIS RRS. Biases between mission-specific RRS may exhibit a seasonal dependence, particularly in the subtropical belt.

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHS) (I): Toxicity, population exposure and involved foods

Food is one of the main exogenous sources of genotoxic compounds. In heated food products, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) represent a priority group of genotoxic, mutagenic and/or carcinogenic chemical pollutants with adverse long-term health effects. People can be exposed to these compounds through different environments and via various routes: inhalation, ingestion of foods and water and even percutaneously. The presence of these compounds in food may be due to environmental contamination, to industrial handling and processing of foods and to oil processing and refining. The highest levels of these compounds are found in smoked foods, in seafood which is found in polluted waters, in grilled meats and, to a lesser extent, in vegetable fats and oils. Lower levels of PAHs are found in vegetables and in cereals and its products.

Integration Of Strength and Process Modelling of Friction-Stir-Welded Fuselage Panels

In order to reduce potential uncertainties and conservatism in welded panel analysis procedures, understanding of the relationships between welding process parameters and static strength is required. The aim of this study is to determine and characterize the key process induced properties of advanced welding assembly methods on stiffened panel local buckling and collapse performance. To this end, an in-depth experimental and computational study of the static strength of a friction stir welded fuselage skin-stiffener panel subjected to compression loading has been undertaken. Four welding process effects, viz. the weld joint width, the width of the weld Heat Affected Zone, the strength of material within the weld Heat Affected Zone and the magnitude of welding induced residual stress, are investigated. A fractional factorial experiment design method (Taguchi) has been applied to identify the relative importance of each welding process effect and investigate effect interactions on both local skin buckling and crippling collapse performance. For the identified dominant welding process effects, parametric studies have been undertaken to identify critical welding process effect magnitudes and boundaries. The studies have shown that local skin buckling is principally influenced by the magnitude of welding induced residual stress and that the strength of material in the Heat Affected Zone and the magnitude of the welding induced residual stress have the greatest influence on crippling collapse behavior.


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Reaxys Database Information
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Soil Carbon stocks and schanges in the Republic of Ireland

The soil carbon (C) stock of the Republic of Ireland is estimated to have been 2048 Mt in 1990 and 2021 Mt in 2000. Peat holds around 53% of the soil C stock, but on 17% of the land area. The C density of soils (t C ha-1) is mapped at 2 km*2 km resolution. The greatest soil C densities occur where deep raised bogs are the dominant soil; in these grid squares C density can reach 3000 t C ha-1. Most of the loss of soil C between 1990 and 2000-up to 23 Mt C (1% of 1990 soil C stock)-was through industrial peat extraction. The average annual change in soil C stocks from 1990 to 2000 due to land use change was estimated at around 0.02% of the 1990 stock. Considering uncertainties in the data used to calculate soil C stocks and changes, the small average annual 'loss' could be regarded as 'no change'.

B-type supergiants in the SMC: Chemical compositions and comparison of static and unified models

High-resolution UCLES/AAT spectra are presented for nine B-type supergiants in the SMC, chosen on the basis that they may show varying amounts of nuclear-synthetically processed material mixed to their surface. These spectra have been analysed using a new grid of approximately 12 000 non-LTE line blanketed tlusty model atmospheres to estimate atmospheric parameters and chemical composition. The abundance estimates for O, Mg and Si are in excellent agreement with those deduced from other studies, whilst the low estimate for C may reflect the use of the C II doublet at 4267 Å. The N estimates are approximately an order of magnitude greater than those found in unevolved B-type stars or H II regions but are consistent with the other estimates in AB-type supergiants. These results have been combined with results from a unified model atmosphere analysis of UVES/VLT spectra of B-type supergiants (Trundle et al. 2004, A&A, 417, 217) to discuss the evolutionary status of these objects. For two stars that are in common with those discussed by Trundle et al., we have undertaken a careful comparison in order to try to understand the relative importance of the different uncertainties present in such analyses, including observational errors and the use of static or unified models. We find that even for these relatively luminous supergiants, tlusty models yield atmospheric parameters and chemical compositions similar to those deduced from the unified code fastwind.

A comparison of theoretical line intensity ratios for Ni XII with extreme ultraviolet observations from the JET tokamak

Recent R-matrix calculations of electron impact excitation rates in Ni XII are used to derive the emission line ratios R-1 = I(154.17 Angstrom)/I(152.15 Angstrom), R-2 = I(152.95 Angstrom)/I(152.15 Angstrom) and R-3 = 1(160.55 Angstrom)/I(152.15 Angstrom). This is the first time (to our knowledge) that theoretical emission line ratios have been calculated for this ion. The ratios are found to be insensitive to changes in the adopted electron density (N-e) when N-e greater than or equal to 5 x 10(11) cm(-3), typical of laboratory plasmas. However, they do vary with electron temperature (T-e), with for example R-1 and R-3 changing by factors of 1.3 and 1.8, respectively, between T-e = 10(5) and 10(6) K. A comparison of the theoretical line ratios with measurements from the Joint European Tents (JET) tokamak reveals very good agreement between theory and observation for R-1, with an average discrepancy of only 7%. Agreement between the calculated and experimental ratios for R-2 and R-3 is less satisfactory, with average differences of 30 and 33%, respectively. These probably arise from errors in the JET instrument calibration curve. However, the discrepancies are smaller than the uncertainties in the R-2 and R-3 measurements. Our results, in particular for R-1, provide experimental support for the accuracy of the Ni XIII line ratio calculations, and hence for the atomic data adopted in their derivation.

A comparison of theoretical MgVI emission line strengths with active-region observations from serts

R-matrix calculations of electron impact excitation rates in N-like Mg vi are used to derive theoretical electron-density-sensitive emission line ratios involving 2s(2)2p(3)-2s2p(4) transitions in the 269-403 Angstrom wavelength range. A comparison of these with observations of a solar active region, obtained during the 1989 flight of the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS), reveals good agreement between theory and observation for the 2s(2)2p(3) S-4-2s2p(4) P-4 transitions at 399.28, 400.67, and 403.30 Angstrom, and the 2s(2)2p(3) P-2-2s2p(4) D-2 lines at 387.77 and 387.97 Angstrom. However, intensities for the other lines attributed to Mg vi in this spectrum by various authors do not match the present theoretical predictions. We argue that these discrepancies are not due to errors in the adopted atomic data, as previously suggested, but rather to observational uncertainties or mis-identifications. Some of the features previously identified as Mg vi lines in the SERTS spectrum, such as 291.36 and 293.15 Angstrom, are judged to be noise, while others (including 349.16 Angstrom) appear to be blended.

The proposal of democratic citizenship in Hannah Arendt

The main purpose of this paper is to analyze Hannah Arendt’s citizenship proposal. The central thesis is that this proposal is possible in contemporary democracies, and it is adequate for developing and strengthening of political action. The work is divided in five sections. In the first, we develop a brief introduction on the studied issue. In the second and third section, we analyze, respec-tively, political and moral conditions that enable democratic citizenship, and the conditions that hinder the exercise of the same, according to Arendt. Then, we reflect critically on Arendt’s citizenship proposal. Finally, we conclude and we propose a set of civic challenges relate to current democracies in light of the above proposal.