Relationship between water transparency and species richness of surviving haplochromines in selected habitats in Mwanza Gulf - Lake Victoria

Several of the surviving haplochromine species have been recorded in habitats of different water transparencies within the Mwanza Gulf. Sampling for the haplochromines was carried out in muddy, rocky, sandy and vegetated habitats. All of the recorded species had been reported previously. Fewer species were encountered than previously reported in the same sampling stations. There was evidence for positive correlation between species richness and water transparency that was reinforced with data on ecological differentiation. Further exploration and conservation measures of diversity have been suggested for Lake Victoria haplochromines.

Patterns of alcohol and illicit substance use in the United States and Mexico. Substantive and methodologic issues in the cross-national analysis of alcohol and drug use data

This research examines prevalence of alcohol and illicit substance use in the United States and Mexico and associated socio-demographic characteristics. The sources of data for this study are public domain data from the U.S. National Household Survey of Drug Abuse, 1988 (n = 8814), and the Mexican National Survey of Addictions, 1988 (n = 12,579). In addition, this study discusses methodologic issues in cross-cultural and cross-national comparison of behavioral and epidemiologic data from population-based samples. The extent to which patterns of substance abuse vary among subgroups of the U.S. and Mexican populations is assessed, as well as the comparability and equivalence of measures of alcohol and drug use in these national samples.^ The prevalence of alcohol use was somewhat similar in the two countries for all three measures of use: lifetime, past year and past year heavy use, (85.0%, 68.1%, 39.6% and 72.6%, 47.7% and 45.8% for the U.S. and Mexico respectively). The use of illegal substances varied widely between countries, with U.S. respondents reporting significantly higher levels of use than their Mexican counterparts. For example, reported use of any illicit substance in lifetime and past year was 34.2%, 11.6 for the U.S., and 3.3% and 0.6% for Mexico. Despite these differences in prevalence, two demographic characteristics, gender and age, were important correlates of use in both countries. Men in both countries were more likely to report use of alcohol and illicit substances than women. Generally speaking, a greater proportion of respondents in both countries 18 years of age or older reported use of alcohol for all three measures than younger respondents; and a greater proportion of respondents between the ages of 18 and 34 years reported use of illicit substances during lifetime and past year than any other age group.^ Additional substantive research investigating population-based samples and at-risk subgroups is needed to understand the underlying mechanisms of these associations. Further development of cross-culturally meaningful survey methods is warranted to validate comparisons of substance use across countries and societies. ^

Relationship between enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli and travelers' diarrhea in Mexico, from 1992 to 1997

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between enterotoxigenic ETEC and travelers' diarrhea over a period of five years in Guadalajara, Mexico. Specifically, this study identified and characterized ETEC from travelers with diarrhea. The objectives were to study the colonization factor antigens, toxins and antibiotic sensitivity patterns in ETEC from 1992 to 1997 and to study the molecular epidemiology of ETEC by plasmid content and DNA restriction fragment patterns. ^ In this survey of travelers' diarrhea in Guadalajara, Mexico, 928 travelers with diarrhea were screened for enteric pathogens between 1992 and 1997. ETEC were isolated in 195 (19.9%) of the patients, representing the most frequent enteric pathogen identified. ^ A total of 31 antimicrobial susceptibility patterns were identified among ETEC isolates over the five-year period. ^ The 195 ETEC isolates contained two to six plasmids each, which ranged in size from 2.0 to 23 kbp. ^ Three different reproducible rRNA gene restriction patterns (ribotypes R-1 to R-3) were obtained among the 195 isolates with the enzyme, HindIII. ^ Colonization factor antigens (CFAs) were identified in 99 (51%) of the 195 ETEC strains studied. ^ Cluster analysis of the observations seen in the four assays all confirmed the five distinct groups of study-year strains of ETEC. Each group had a >95% similarity level of strains within the group and <60% similarity level between the groups. In addition, discriminant analysis of assay variables used in predicting the ETEC strains, reveal a >80% relationship between both the plasmid and rRNA content of ETEC strains and study-year. ^ These findings, based on laboratory observations of the differences in biochemical, antimicrobial susceptibility, plasmid and ribotype content, suggest complex epidemiology for ETEC strains in a population with travelers' diarrhea. The findings of this study may have implications for our understanding of the epidemiology, transmission, treatment, control and prevention of the disease. It has been suggested that an ETEC vaccine for humans should contain the most prevalent CFAs. Therefore, it is important to know the prevalence of these factors in ETEC in various geographical areas. ^ CFAs described in this dissertation may be used in different epidemiological studies in which the prevalence of CFAs and other properties on ETEC will be evaluated. Furthermore, in spite of an intense search in near 200 ETEC isolates for strains that may have clonal relationship, we failed to identify such strains. However, further studies are in progress to construct suitable live vaccine strains and to introduce several of CFAs in the same host organism by recombinant DNA techniques (Dr. Ann-Mari Svennerholm's lab). (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^

Alcohol consumption and breast cancer risk among Hispanic and non-Hispanic women in New Mexico

Breast cancer incidence and mortality rates for Hispanic women are lower than for non-Hispanic white (NHW) women, but recently rates have increased more rapidly among Hispanic women. Many studies have shown a consistent increased breast cancer risk associated with modest or high alcohol intake, but few included Hispanic women. Alcohol consumption and risk of breast cancer was investigated in a New Mexico statewide population-based case-control study. The New Mexico Tumor Registry ascertained women, newly diagnosed with breast cancer (1992–1994) aged 30–74 years. Controls were identified by random digit dialing and were frequency-matched for ethnicity, age-group, and health planning district. In-person interviews of 712 cases and 844 controls were conducted. Data were collected for breast cancer risk factors, including alcohol intake. Recent alcohol intake data was collected for a four-week period, six months prior to interview. Past alcohol intake included information on alcohol consumption at ages 25, 35, and 50. History of alcohol consumption was reported by 81% of cases and 85% of controls. Of these women, 42% of cases and 48% of controls reported recent alcohol intake. Results for past alcohol intake did not show any trend with breast cancer risk, and were nonsignificant. Multivariate-adjusted odds ratios for recent alcohol intake and breast cancer suggested an increased risk at the highest level for both ethnic groups, but estimates were unstable and statistically nonsignificant. Low level of recent alcohol intake (<148 grams/week) was associated with a reduced risk for NHW women (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.49 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.35–0.69). This pattern was independent of hormone-receptor status. The reduced breast cancer risk for low alcohol intake was present for premenopausal (OR = 0.29, 95% CI 0.15–0.56) and postmenopausal NHW women (OR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.35–0.90). The possibility of an increased risk associated with high alcohol intake could not be adequately addressed, because there were few drinkers with more than light to moderate intake, especially among Hispanic women. An alcohol-estrogen link is hypothesized to be the mechanism responsible for increased breast cancer risk, but has not been consistently substantiated. More studies are needed of the underlying mechanism for an association between alcohol intake and breast cancer. ^

Neural tube defects in Mexican-Americans living on the US-Mexico border: The effects of folic acid and dietary folate

Neural tube defects (NTDs) are malformations of the developing brain and spinal cord; the most common are anencephaly and spina bifida. Evidence from many populations suggests that 50% of NTDs can be prevented through daily consumption of folic acid. A recent study has reported that folic acid may not protect populations of Mexican descent. This finding has serious implications for women living along the US-Mexico border. Not only is risk high in these Mexican American women compared with other US women; they also differ markedly in supplemental folic acid and dietary folate consumption, and in NTD-related risks (e.g., obesity, diabetes). This case-control study investigated whether folic acid supplements and dietary folate reduces NTDs in Mexican Americans. Cases included liveborn, stillborn, electively and spontaneously aborted NTD-affected fetuses and infants occurring in the 14-county Texas-Mexico border. Controls were randomly selected from unaffected live births, frequency matched to cases by hospital and year. An in-person interview of 110 case and 113 control mothers solicited data on folic acid supplements, dietary folate, and other covariates. Consumption of folic acid-containing vitamins before conception was only 5% for both case and control women. Taking vitamins the trimester before conception had no apparent effect, after adjusting for covariates [odds ratio (OR) = 1.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.3–3.4]. Combining folate from vitamins and diet showed a 20% risk reduction for women consuming at least 400 μg of folate daily [OR = 0.8, 95% CI = 0.5–1.5]; however, this estimate is statistically indistinguishable from the null. Although consistent with an inherent ineffectiveness of supplemental folic acid, that so few women consumed multivitamins during the critical time severely limited the assessment of folic acid in this population. A reduced folate response in Mexican descent women may be due to a genetic heterogeneity for metabolizing folate. Alternatively, folate intakes may be insufficient to overcome other underlying risk factors. In conclusion, determining whether folic acid reduces NTD risk in Mexican American women requires further study in populations with higher folic acid exposures. Meanwhile, we should pursue all recommended prevention strategies to reduce risk, including motivating Mexican American women of childbearing age to take folic acid routinely. ^

A Numerical Investigation of the Gulf Stream and Its Meanders in Response to Cold Air Outbreaks

The three-dimensional Princeton Ocean Model is used to examine the modification of the Gulf Stream and its meanders by cold air outbreaks. Two types of Gulf Stream meanders are found in the model. Meanders on the shoreward side of the Gulf Stream are baroclinically unstable. They are affected little by the atmospheric forcing because their energy source is stored at the permanent thermocline, well below the influence of the surface forcing. Meanders on the seaward side of the stream are both barotropically and baroclinically unstable. The energy feeding these meanders is stored at the surface front separating the Gulf Stream and the Sargasso Seal which is greatly reduced in case of cold air outbreaks. Thus, meanders there reduce strength and also seem to slow their downstream propagation due to the southward Ekman flow. Heat budget calculations suggest two almost separable processes. The oceanic heal released to the atmosphere during these severe cooling episodes comes almost exclusively from the upper water column. Transport of heat by meanders from the Gulf Stream to the shelf, though it is large, does not disrupt the principal balance. It is balanced nicely with the net heat transport in the downstream direction.

Model-Based Estimates of Calanus Finmarchicus Abundance in the Gulf of Maine

Ocean observing systems and satellites routinely collect a wealth of information on physical conditions in the ocean. With few exceptions, such as chlorophyll concentrations, information on biological properties is harder to measure autonomously. Here, we present a system to produce estimates of the distribution and abundance of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine. Our system uses satellite-based measurements of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration to determine the developmental and reproductive rates of C. finmarchicus. The rate information then drives a population dynamics model of C. finmarchicus that is embedded in a 2-dimensional circulation field. The first generation of this system produces realistic information on interannual variability in C. finmarchicus distribution and abundance during the winter and spring. The model can also be used to identify key drivers of interannual variability in C. finmarchicus. Experiments with the model suggest that changes in initial conditions are overwhelmed by variability in growth rates after approximately 50 d. Temperature has the largest effect on growth rate. Elevated chlorophyll during the late winter can lead to increased C. finmarchicus abundance during the spring, but the effect of variations in chlorophyll concentrations is secondary to the other inputs. Our system could be used to provide real-time estimates or even forecasts of C. finmarchicus distribution. These estimates could then be used to support management of copepod predators such as herring and right whales.

Air-Sea Interactions During the Passage of a Winter Storm Over the Gulf Stream: A Three-Dimensional Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model Study

A three-dimensional, regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model with full physics is developed to study air-sea interactions during winter storms off the U. S. east coast. Because of the scarcity of open ocean observations, models such as this offer valuable opportunities to investigate how oceanic forcing drives atmospheric circulation and vice versa. The study presented here considers conditions of strong atmospheric forcing (high wind speeds) and strong oceanic forcing (significant sea surface temperature (SST) gradients). A simulated atmospheric cyclone evolves in a manner consistent with Eta reanalysis, and the simulated air-sea heat and momentum exchanges strongly affect the circulations in both the atmosphere and the ocean. For the simulated cyclone of 19-20 January 1998, maximum ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes first appear over the Gulf Stream in the South Atlantic Bight, and this results in rapid deepening of the cyclone off the Carolina coast. As the cyclone moves eastward, the heat flux maximum shifts into the region near Cape Hatteras and later northeast of Hatteras, where it enhances the wind locally. The oceanic response to the atmospheric forcing is closely related to the wind direction. Southerly and southwesterly winds tend to strengthen surface currents in the Gulf Stream, whereas northeasterly winds weaken the surface currents in the Gulf Stream and generate southwestward flows on the shelf. The oceanic feedback to the atmosphere moderates the cyclone strength. Compared with a simulation in which the oceanic model always passes the initial SST to the atmospheric model, the coupled simulation in which the oceanic model passes the evolving SST to the atmospheric model produces higher ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux near Gulf Stream meander troughs. This is due to wind-driven lateral shifts of the stream, which in turn enhance the local northeasterly winds. Away from the Gulf Stream the coupled simulation produces surface winds that are 5 similar to 10% weaker. Differences in the surface ocean currents between these two experiments are significant on the shelf and in the open ocean.

Model-Based Estimates of Right Whale Habitat Use in the Gulf of Maine

Balancing human uses of the marine environment with the recovery of protected species requires accurate information on when and where species of interest are likely to be present. Here, we describe a system that can produce useful estimates of right whale Eubalaena glacialis presence and abundance on their feeding grounds in the Gulf of Maine. The foundation of our system is a coupled physical-biological model of the copepod Calan us finmarchicus, the preferred prey of right whales. From the modeled prey densities, we can estimate when whales will appear in the Great South Channel feeding ground. Based on our experience with the system, we consider how the relationship between right whales and copepods changes across spatial scales. The scale-dependent relationship between whales and copepods provides insight into how to improve future estimates of the distribution of right whales and other pelagic predators.

A Model Study of the Seasonal Circulation in the Gulf of Maine

The Princeton Ocean Model is used to study the circulation in the Gulf of Maine and its seasonal transition in response to wind, surface heat flux, river discharge, and the M-2 tide. The model has an orthogonal-curvature linear grid in the horizontal with variable spacing from 3 km nearshore to 7 km offshore and 19 levels in the vertical. It is initialized and forced at the open boundary with model results from the East Coast Forecast System. The first experiment is forced by monthly climatological wind and heat flux from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set; discharges from the Saint John, Penobscot, Kennebec, and Merrimack Rivers are added in the second experiment; the semidiurnal lunar tide (M-2) is included as part of the open boundary forcing in the third experiment. It is found that the surface heat flux plays an important role in regulating the annual cycle of the circulation in the Gulf of Maine. The spinup of the cyclonic circulation between April and June is likely caused by the differential heating between the interior gulf and the exterior shelf/slope region. From June to December the cyclonic circulation continues to strengthen, but gradually shrinks in size. When winter cooling erodes the stratification, the cyclonic circulation penetrates deeper into the water column. The circulation quickly spins down from December to February as most of the energy is consumed by bottom friction. While inclusion of river discharge changes details of the circulation pattern, the annual evolution of the circulation is largely unaffected. On the other hand, inclusion of the tide results in not only the anticyclonic circulation on Georges Bank but also modifications to the seasonal circulation.

Different Early Post-Settlement Strategies Between American Lobsters Homarus Americanus and Rock Crabs Cancer Irroratus in the Gulf of Maine

The abundance of many invertebrates with planktonic larval stages can be determined shortly after they reach the benthos. In this study, we quantified patterns of abundance and habitat utilization of early benthic phases of the American lobster Homarus americanus and the rock crab Cancer irroratus. These 2 decapods are among the most common and abundant macroinvertebrates in coastal zones of the Gulf of Maine, with similar densities of larger individuals. Settlement and early postsettlement survival indicate that lobsters are highly substrate-specific early in life, settling predominantly in cobble beds. Crabs appear to be less selective, setting both in cobble and sand. Cumulative settlement of crabs, inferred from weekly censuses over the summer, was an order of magnitude greater than that of lobsters over the same time period. However, only crabs showed significant postsettlement losses. Although the identity of specific predators is unknown, predator exclusion experiments and placement of vacant uninhabited nursery habitat suggested that post-settlement mortality rather than emigration was responsible for these losses. The selective habitat-seeking behavior and lower post-settlement mortality of lobsters is consistent with their lower fecundity and later onset of reproductive maturity. The patterns observed for crabs, however, suggest a different strategy which is more in accordance with their higher fecundity and earlier onset of maturity. It is possible that lower fecundity but greater per-egg investment, along with strict habitat selection at settlement and lower post-settlement mortality, allows adult lobster populations to equal adult populations of crabs. This occurs despite crabs being more fecund and less habitat-selective settlers but sustaining higher postsettlement mortality.

Dispersal Modeling of Fish Early Life Stages: Sensitivity with Application to Atlantic Cod in the Western Gulf of Maine

As an initial step in establishing mechanistic relationships between environmental variability and recruitment in Atlantic cod Gadhus morhua along the coast of the western Gulf of Maine, we assessed transport success of larvae from major spawning grounds to nursery areas with particle tracking using the unstructured grid model FVCOM (finite volume coastal ocean model). In coastal areas, dispersal of early planktonic life stages of fish and invertebrate species is highly dependent on the regional dynamics and its variability, which has to be captured by our models. With state-of-the-art forcing for the year 1995, we evaluate the sensitivity of particle dispersal to the timing and location of spawning, the spatial and temporal resolution of the model, and the vertical mixing scheme. A 3 d frequency for the release of particles is necessary to capture the effect of the circulation variability into an averaged dispersal pattern of the spawning season. The analysis of sensitivity to model setup showed that a higher resolution mesh, tidal forcing, and current variability do not change the general pattern of connectivity, but do tend to increase within-site retention. Our results indicate strong downstream connectivity among spawning grounds and higher chances for successful transport from spawning areas closer to the coast. The model run for January egg release indicates 1 to 19 % within-spawning ground retention of initial particles, which may be sufficient to sustain local populations. A systematic sensitivity analysis still needs to be conducted to determine the minimum mesh and forcing resolution that adequately resolves the complex dynamics of the western Gulf of Maine. Other sources of variability, i.e. large-scale upstream forcing and the biological environment, also need to be considered in future studies of the interannual variability in transport and survival of the early life stages of cod.

The Jews in modern Mexico

by Victor Harris