Ensemble forecasting in the Mediterranean sea

A new methodology is being devised for ensemble ocean forecasting using distributions of the surface wind field derived from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). The ocean members are forced with samples from the posterior distribution of the wind during the assimilation of satellite and in-situ ocean data. The initial condition perturbations are then consistent with the best available knowledge of the ocean state at the beginning of the forecast and amplify the ocean response to uncertainty only in the forcing. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) surface winds are also used to generate a reference ocean ensemble to evaluate the performance of the BHM method that proves to be eective in concentrating the forecast uncertainty at the ocean meso-scale. An height month experiment of weekly BHM ensemble forecasts was performed in the framework of the operational Mediterranean Forecasting System. The statistical properties of the ensemble are compared with model errors throughout the seasonal cycle proving the existence of a strong relationship between forecast uncertainties due to atmospheric forcing and the seasonal cycle.

Mediterranean brachiopods: morphological, ecological and phylogenetic aspects

The Brachiopoda of the Marine Protected Area “Secche di Tor Paterno”, Central Tyrrhenian Sea, have been investigated in order to give a first glance of the diversity of the brachiopods of this area and provide a new report on the Mediterranean Brachiopod fauna. Four species were reported: Novocrania anomala (Müller, 1776), Megathiris detruncata (Gmelin, 1790), Joania cordata (Risso,1826) and Argyrotheca cuneata (Risso,1826). For all the four species a morphological analysis was carried out. For the two most abundant species, J.cordata and A. cuneata, a morphometric study, based on thickness/width and length/width scattergrams, was carried out, in order to investigate their variability. Size-frequency distributions relative to the three dimensions of the shell were also computed, aimed at a evaluation of population dynamics of these two species. The results showed that, for both species, the parameters which most determine the rise of the shell during the growth of animal are width and length and that frequency distributions are mainly bi- or plurymodal and that they are difficult to interpret, as reported by other studies. Analysis of drill holes found on the shell of some specimens of the two same species revealed a predatory origin and that three different predators are responsible for them. Partial sequences of two different genetic markers, the Internal Transcribed Spacer 1 (ITS1) and the cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (COI), were used to investigate the phylogenetic relationship between two populations of the eurybathic brachiopod species Gryphus vitreus (Born,1778) across the strait of Gibraltar. This represents the first genetic population study on brachiopods. Results from AMOVA and Bayesian analysis performed on 31 specimens highlighted no genetic differentiation indicating a likely panmixia, dispite the lecitotrophic development of the species.

DNA barcoding taxonomy and diversity of the Mediterranean sharks and rays

Elasmobranchs are an important by-catch of commercial fisheries targeting bony fishes. Fisheries targeting sharks are rare, but usually almost all specimen bycatched are marketed. They risk extinction if current fishing pressure continues (Ferretti et al., 2008). Accurate species identification is critical for the design of sustainable fisheries and appropriate management plans, especially since not all species are equally sensitive to fishing pressure (Walker & Hislop 1998). The identification of species constitutes the first basic step for biodiversity monitoring and conservation (Dayrat B et al., 2005). More recently, mtDNA sequencing has also been used for species identification and its use has become widespread under the DNA Barcode initiative (e.g. Hebert et al. 2003a, 2003b; Ward et al. 2005, 2008a; Moura et al 2008; Steinke et al. 2009). The aims of this work were: 1) identify sharks and skates species using DNA barcode; 2) compare species of different provenance; 3) use DNA barcode for misidentified species. Using DNA barcode 15 species of sharks (Alopias vulpinus, Centrophorus granulosus, Cetorhinus maximus, Dalatias licha, Etmopterus spinax, Galeorhinus galeus, Galeus melastomus, Heptranchias perlo, Hexanchus griseus, Mustelus mustelus, Mustelus punctulatus, Oxynotus centrina, Scyliorhinus canicula Squalus acanthias, Squalus blainville), 1 species of chimaera (Chimaera monstrosa) and 21 species of rays/skayes (Dasyatis centroura, Dasyatis pastinaca, Dasyatis sp., Dipturus nidarosiensis, Dipturus oxyrinchus, Leucoraja circularis, Leucoraja melitensis, Myliobatis aquila, Pteromylaeus bovinus, Pteroplatytrygon violacea, Raja asterias, Raja brachyura, Raja clavata, Raja miraletus, Raja montagui, Raja radula, Raja polystigma, Raja undulata, Rostroraja alba, Torpedo marmorata, Torpedo nobiliana, Torpedo torpedo) was identified.

Cold cloud climatology over Europe and the Mediterranean during the warm season from Meteosat IR imagery

Thermal infrared (IR, 10.5 – 12.5 m) images from the Meteosat Visible and Infrared Imager (MVIRI) of cold cloud episodes (cloud top brightness temperature < 241 K) are used as a proxy of precipitating clouds to derive a warm season (May-August) climatology of their coherency, duration, span, and speed over Europe and the Mediterranean. The analysis focuses over the 30°-54°N, 15°W-40°E domain in May-August 1996-2005. Harmonic analysis using discrete Fourier transforms is applied together with a statistical analysis and an investigation of the diurnal cycle. This study has the objective to make available a set of results on the propagation dynamics of the cloud systems with the aim of assist numerical modellers in improving summer convection parameterization. The zonal propagation of cold cloud systems is accompanied by a weak meridional component confined to narrow latitude belts. The persistence of cold clouds over the area evidences the role of orography, the Pyrenees, the Alps, the Balkans and Anatolia. A diurnal oscillation is found with a maximum marking the initiation of convection in the lee of the mountains and shifting from about 1400 UTC at 40°E to 1800 UTC at 0°. A moderate eastward propagation of the frequency maximum from all mountain chains across the domain exists and the diurnal maxima are completely suppressed west of 5°W. The mean power spectrum of the cold cloud frequency distribution evidences a period of one day all over Europe disappearing over the ocean (west of 10°W). Other maxima are found in correspondence of 6 to 10 days in the longitudes from 15° W to 0° and indicate the activity of the westerlies with frontal passage over the continent. Longer periods activities (from 15 up to 30 days) were stronger around 10° W and from 5° W to 15° E and are likely related to the Madden Julian Oscillation influence. The maxima of the diurnal signal are in phase with the presence of elevated terrain and with land masses. A median zonal phase speed of 16.1 ms-1 is found for all events ≥ 1000 km and ≥ 20 h and a full set of results divided by years and recurrence categories is also presented.

Lagrangian transport evaluation of atmospheric chemistry in the Mediterranean region

Global observations of the chemical composition of the atmosphere are essential for understanding and studying the present and future state of the earth's atmosphere. However, by analyzing field experiments the consideration of the atmospheric motion is indispensable, because transport enables different chemical species, with different local natural and anthropogenic sources, to interact chemically and so consequently influences the chemical composition of the atmosphere. The distance over which that transport occurs is highly dependent upon meteorological conditions (e.g., wind speed, precipitation) and the properties of chemical species itself (e.g., solubility, reactivity). This interaction between chemistry and dynamics makes the study of atmospheric chemistry both difficult and challenging, and also demonstrates the relevance of including the atmospheric motions in that context. In this doctoral thesis the large-scale transport of air over the eastern Mediterranean region during summer 2001, with a focus on August during the Mediterranean Intensive Oxidant Study (MINOS) measurement campaign, was investigated from a lagrangian perspective. Analysis of back trajectories demonstrated transport of polluted air masses from western and eastern Europe in the boundary layer, from the North Atlantic/North American area in the middle end upper troposphere and additionally from South Asia in the upper troposphere towards the eastern Mediterranean. Investigation of air mass transport near the tropopause indicated enhanced cross-tropopause transport relative to the surrounding area over the eastern Mediterranean region in summer. A large band of air mass transport across the dynamical tropopause develops in June, and is shifted toward higher latitudes in July and August. This shifting is associated with the development and the intensification of the Arabian and South Asian upper-level anticyclones and consequential with areas of maximum clear-air turbulence, hypothesizing quasi-permanent areas with turbulent mixing of tropospheric and stratospheric air during summer over the eastern Mediterranean as a result of large-scale synoptic circulation. In context with the latex knowledge about the transport of polluted air masses towards the Mediterranean and with increasing emissions, especially in developing countries like India, this likely gains in importance.

Development of oil spill detection techniques for satellite optical sensors and their application to monitor oil spill discharge in Mediterranean sea

Satellite remote sensing has proved to be an effective support in timely detection and monitoring of marine oil pollution, mainly due to illegal ship discharges. In this context, we have developed a new methodology and technique for optical oil spill detection, which make use of MODIS L2 and MERIS L1B satellite top of atmosphere (TOA) reflectance imagery, for the first time in a highly automated way. The main idea was combining wide swaths and short revisit times of optical sensors with SAR observations, generally used in oil spill monitoring. This arises from the necessity to overcome the SAR reduced coverage and long revisit time of the monitoring area. This can be done now, given the MODIS and MERIS higher spatial resolution with respect to older sensors (250-300 m vs. 1 km), which consents the identification of smaller spills deriving from illicit discharge at sea. The procedure to obtain identifiable spills in optical reflectance images involves removal of oceanic and atmospheric natural variability, in order to enhance oil-water contrast; image clustering, which purpose is to segment the oil spill eventually presents in the image; finally, the application of a set of criteria for the elimination of those features which look like spills (look-alikes). The final result is a classification of oil spill candidate regions by means of a score based on the above criteria.

The stratigraphic record of the quaternary sea level fluctuations and the impact of the post-glacial sea level rise (Termination I) in the Adriatic basin (Mediterranean sea)

The modern stratigraphy of clastic continental margins is the result of the interaction between several geological processes acting on different time scales, among which sea level oscillations, sediment supply fluctuations and local tectonics are the main mechanisms. During the past three years my PhD was focused on understanding the impact of each of these process in the deposition of the central and northern Adriatic sedimentary successions, with the aim of reconstructing and quantifying the Late Quaternary eustatic fluctuations. In the last few decades, several Authors tried to quantify past eustatic fluctuations through the analysis of direct sea level indicators, among which drowned barrier-island deposits or coral reefs, or indirect methods, such as Oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) or modeling simulations. Sea level curves, obtained from direct sea level indicators, record a composite signal, formed by the contribution of the global eustatic change and regional factors, as tectonic processes or glacial-isostatic rebound effects: the eustatic signal has to be obtained by removing the contribution of these other mechanisms. To obtain the most realistic sea level reconstructions it is important to quantify the tectonic regime of the central Adriatic margin. This result has been achieved integrating a numerical approach with the analysis of high-resolution seismic profiles. In detail, the subsidence trend obtained from the geohistory analysis and the backstripping of the borehole PRAD1.2 (the borehole PRAD1.2 is a 71 m continuous borehole drilled in -185 m of water depth, south of the Mid Adriatic Deep - MAD - during the European Project PROMESS 1, Profile Across Mediterranean Sedimentary Systems, Part 1), has been confirmed by the analysis of lowstand paleoshorelines and by benthic foraminifera associations investigated through the borehole. This work showed an evolution from inner-shelf environment, during Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 10, to upper-slope conditions, during MIS 2. Once the tectonic regime of the central Adriatic margin has been constrained, it is possible to investigate the impact of sea level and sediment supply fluctuations on the deposition of the Late Pleistocene-Holocene transgressive deposits. The Adriatic transgressive record (TST - Transgressive Systems Tract) is formed by three correlative sedimentary bodies, deposited in less then 14 kyr since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM); in particular: along the central Adriatic shelf and in the adjacent slope basin the TST is formed by marine units, while along the northern Adriatic shelf the TST is represented by costal deposits in a backstepping configuration. The central Adriatic margin, characterized by a thick transgressive sedimentary succession, is the ideal site to investigate the impact of late Pleistocene climatic and eustatic fluctuations, among which Meltwater Pulses 1A and 1B and the Younger Dryas cold event. The central Adriatic TST is formed by a tripartite deposit bounded by two regional unconformities. In particular, the middle TST unit includes two prograding wedges, deposited in the interval between the two Meltwater Pulse events, as highlighted by several 14C age estimates, and likely recorded the Younger Dryas cold interval. Modeling simulations, obtained with the two coupled models HydroTrend 3.0 and 2D-Sedflux 1.0C (developed by the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System - CSDMS), integrated by the analysis of high resolution seismic profiles and core samples, indicate that: 1 - the prograding middle TST unit, deposited during the Younger Dryas, was formed as a consequence of an increase in sediment flux, likely connected to a decline in vegetation cover in the catchment area due to the establishment of sub glacial arid conditions; 2 - the two-stage prograding geometry was the consequence of a sea level still-stand (or possibly a fall) during the Younger Dryas event. The northern Adriatic margin, characterized by a broad and gentle shelf (350 km wide with a low angle plunge of 0.02° to the SE), is the ideal site to quantify the timing of each steps of the post LGM sea level rise. The modern shelf is characterized by sandy deposits of barrier-island systems in a backstepping configuration, showing younger ages at progressively shallower depths, which recorded the step-wise nature of the last sea level rise. The age-depth model, obtained by dated samples of basal peat layers, is in good agreement with previous published sea level curves, and highlights the post-glacial eustatic trend. The interval corresponding to the Younger Dyas cold reversal, instead, is more complex: two coeval coastal deposits characterize the northern Adriatic shelf at very different water depths. Several explanations and different models can be attempted to explain this conundrum, but the problem remains still unsolved.

Genetic structure and connectivity between populations of two common Mediterranean sessile invertebrates

Population genetic and phylogeography of two common mediterranean species were studied in 10 localities located on the coasts of Toscana, Puglia and Calabria. The aim of the study was to verify the extent of genetic breaks, in areas recognized as boundaries between Mediterranean biogeographic sectors. From about 100 sequences obtained from the mitochondrial Cytochrome Oxidase subunit I (COI) gene of Halocynthia papillosa and Hexaplex trunculus genetic diversity, genetic structure at small and large distances and demographic history of both specieswere analyzed. No evidences of genetic breaks were found for the two species in Toscana and Puglia. The genetic structure of H. trunculus evidences the extent of a barrier to gene flow localized in Calabria, which could be represented by the Siculo-Tunisian Strait and the Strait of Messina. The observed patterns showed similar level of gene flow at small distances in both species, although the two species have different larval ecology. These results suggest that other factors, such as currents, local dynamics and seasonal temperatures, influence the connectivity along the Italian peninsula. The geographic distribution of the haplotypes shows that H. papillosacould represent a single genetic pool in expansion, whereas H. trunculus has two distinct genetic pools in expansion. The demographic pattern of the two species suggests that Pleistocene sea level oscillations, in particular of the LGM, may have played a key role in shaping genetic structure of the two species. This knowledge provides basic information, useful for the definition of management plans, or for the design of a network of marine protected areas along the Italian peninsula.