Updating finite element models using measured vibration data

The modelling of mechanical structures using finite element analysis has become an indispensable stage in the design of new components and products. Once the theoretical design has been optimised a prototype may be constructed and tested. What can the engineer do if the measured and theoretically predicted vibration characteristics of the structure are significantly different? This thesis considers the problems of changing the parameters of the finite element model to improve the correlation between a physical structure and its mathematical model. Two new methods are introduced to perform the systematic parameter updating. The first uses the measured modal model to derive the parameter values with the minimum variance. The user must provide estimates for the variance of the theoretical parameter values and the measured data. Previous authors using similar methods have assumed that the estimated parameters and measured modal properties are statistically independent. This will generally be the case during the first iteration but will not be the case subsequently. The second method updates the parameters directly from the frequency response functions. The order of the finite element model of the structure is reduced as a function of the unknown parameters. A method related to a weighted equation error algorithm is used to update the parameters. After each iteration the weighting changes so that on convergence the output error is minimised. The suggested methods are extensively tested using simulated data. An H frame is then used to demonstrate the algorithms on a physical structure.

A three dimensional surface measurement and reconstruction system for respiratory function analysis

Respiration is a complex activity. If the relationship between all neurological and skeletomuscular interactions was perfectly understood, an accurate dynamic model of the respiratory system could be developed and the interaction between different inputs and outputs could be investigated in a straightforward fashion. Unfortunately, this is not the case and does not appear to be viable at this time. In addition, the provision of appropriate sensor signals for such a model would be a considerable invasive task. Useful quantitative information with respect to respiratory performance can be gained from non-invasive monitoring of chest and abdomen motion. Currently available devices are not well suited in application for spirometric measurement for ambulatory monitoring. A sensor matrix measurement technique is investigated to identify suitable sensing elements with which to base an upper body surface measurement device that monitors respiration. This thesis is divided into two main areas of investigation; model based and geometrical based surface plethysmography. In the first instance, chapter 2 deals with an array of tactile sensors that are used as progression of existing and previously investigated volumetric measurement schemes based on models of respiration. Chapter 3 details a non-model based geometrical approach to surface (and hence volumetric) profile measurement. Later sections of the thesis concentrate upon the development of a functioning prototype sensor array. To broaden the application area the study has been conducted as it would be fore a generically configured sensor array. In experimental form the system performance on group estimation compares favourably with existing system on volumetric performance. In addition provides continuous transient measurement of respiratory motion within an acceptable accuracy using approximately 20 sensing elements. Because of the potential size and complexity of the system it is possible to deploy it as a fully mobile ambulatory monitoring device, which may be used outside of the laboratory. It provides a means by which to isolate coupled physiological functions and thus allows individual contributions to be analysed separately. Thus facilitating greater understanding of respiratory physiology and diagnostic capabilities. The outcome of the study is the basis for a three-dimensional surface contour sensing system that is suitable for respiratory function monitoring and has the prospect with future development to be incorporated into a garment based clinical tool.

Non-invasive phakometric measurement of corneal and crystalline lens alignment in human eyes

We describe a non-invasive phakometric method for determining corneal axis rotation relative to the visual axis (β) together with crystalline lens axis tilt (α) and decentration (d) relative to the corneal axis. This does not require corneal contact A-scan ultrasonography for the measurement of intraocular surface separations. Theoretical inherent errors of the method, evaluated by ray tracing through schematic eyes incorporating the full range of human ocular component variations, were found to be larger than the measurement errors (β < 0.67°, α < 0.72° and d < 0.08 mm) observed in nine human eyes with known ocular component dimensions. Intersubject variations (mean ± S.D.: β = 6.2 ± 3.4° temporal, α = 0.2 ± 1.8° temporal and d = 0.1 ± 0.1 mm temporal) and repeatability (1.96 × S.D. of difference between repeat readings: β ± 2.0°, α ± 1.8° and d ± 0.2 mm) were studied by measuring the left eyes of 45 subjects (aged 18-42 years, 29 females and 16 males, 15 Caucasians, 29 Indian Asians, one African, refractive error range -7.25 to +1.25 D mean spherical equivalent) on two occasions. © 2005 The College of Optometrists.

Managing uncertainty in complex stochastic models: design and emulation of a Rabies model

In this paper we present a novel method for emulating a stochastic, or random output, computer model and show its application to a complex rabies model. The method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency on synthetic data and the rabies model. We address the issue of experimental design and provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of utilizing replicate model evaluations compared to a space-filling design. We employ the Mahalanobis error measure to validate the heteroscedastic Gaussian process based emulator predictions for both the mean and (co)variance. The emulator allows efficient screening to identify important model inputs and better understanding of the complex behaviour of the rabies model.

A projected process kriging algorithm for sensor networks with heterogeneous error characteristics

Large monitoring networks are becoming increasingly common and can generate large datasets from thousands to millions of observations in size, often with high temporal resolution. Processing large datasets using traditional geostatistical methods is prohibitively slow and in real world applications different types of sensor can be found across a monitoring network. Heterogeneities in the error characteristics of different sensors, both in terms of distribution and magnitude, presents problems for generating coherent maps. An assumption in traditional geostatistics is that observations are made directly of the underlying process being studied and that the observations are contaminated with Gaussian errors. Under this assumption, sub–optimal predictions will be obtained if the error characteristics of the sensor are effectively non–Gaussian. One method, model based geostatistics, assumes that a Gaussian process prior is imposed over the (latent) process being studied and that the sensor model forms part of the likelihood term. One problem with this type of approach is that the corresponding posterior distribution will be non–Gaussian and computationally demanding as Monte Carlo methods have to be used. An extension of a sequential, approximate Bayesian inference method enables observations with arbitrary likelihoods to be treated, in a projected process kriging framework which is less computationally intensive. The approach is illustrated using a simulated dataset with a range of sensor models and error characteristics.

An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Studies of solar radiation and its measurement

A mathematical model has been developed for predicting the spectral distribution of solar radiation incident on a horizontal surface. The solar spectrum in the wavelength range 0.29 to 4.0 micrometers has been divided in 144 intervals. Two variables in the model are the atmospheric water vapour content and atmospheric turbidity. After allowing for absorption and scattering in the atmosphere, the spectral intensity of direct and diffuse components of radiation are computed. When the predicted radiation levels are compared with the measured values for the total radiation and the values with glass filters RG715, RG630 and OG530, a close agreement (± 5%) has been achieved under clear sky conditions. A solar radiation measuring facility, close to the centre of Birmingham, has been set up utilising a microcomputer based data logging system. A suite of computer programs in the BASIC programming language has been developed and extensively tested for solar radiation data, logging, analysis and plotting. Two commonly used instruments, the Eppley PSP pyranometer and the Kipp and Zonen CM5 pyranometer, have been compared under different experimental conditions. Three models for computing the inclined plane irradiation, using total and diffuse radiation on a horizontal surface, have been tested for Birmingham. The anisotropic-alI-sky model, proposed by Klucher, provides a good agreement between the measured and the predicted radiation levels. Measurements of solar spectral distribution, using glass filters, are also reported for a number of inclines facing South.

Productivity analysis and measurement

The state of the art in productivity measurement and analysis shows a gap between simple methods having little relevance in practice and sophisticated mathematical theory which is unwieldy for strategic and tactical planning purposes, -particularly at company level. An extension is made in this thesis to the method of productivity measurement and analysis based on the concept of added value, appropriate to those companies in which the materials, bought-in parts and services change substantially and a number of plants and inter-related units are involved in providing components for final assembly. Reviews and comparisons of productivity measurement dealing with alternative indices and their problems have been made and appropriate solutions put forward to productivity analysis in general and the added value method in particular. Based on this concept and method, three kinds of computerised models two of them deterministic, called sensitivity analysis and deterministic appraisal, and the third one, stochastic, called risk simulation, have been developed to cope with the planning of productivity and productivity growth with reference to the changes in their component variables, ranging from a single value 'to• a class interval of values of a productivity distribution. The models are designed to be flexible and can be adjusted according to the available computer capacity expected accuracy and 'presentation of the output. The stochastic model is based on the assumption of statistical independence between individual variables and the existence of normality in their probability distributions. The component variables have been forecasted using polynomials of degree four. This model is tested by comparisons of its behaviour with that of mathematical model using real historical data from British Leyland, and the results were satisfactory within acceptable levels of accuracy. Modifications to the model and its statistical treatment have been made as required. The results of applying these measurements and planning models to the British motor vehicle manufacturing companies are presented and discussed.

Evaluation and measurement of multiprocessor systems with shared memory

This study is concerned with several proposals concerning multiprocessor systems and with the various possible methods of evaluating such proposals. After a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of several performance evaluation tools, the author decides that simulation is the only tool powerful enough to develop a model which would be of practical use, in the design, comparison and extension of systems. The main aims of the simulation package developed as part of this study are cost effectiveness, ease of use and generality. The methodology on which the simulation package is based is described in detail. The fundamental principles are that model design should reflect actual systems design, that measuring procedures should be carried out alongside design that models should be well documented and easily adaptable and that models should be dynamic. The simulation package itself is modular, and in this way reflects current design trends. This approach also aids documentation and ensures that the model is easily adaptable. It contains a skeleton structure and a library of segments which can be added to or directly swapped with segments of the skeleton structure, to form a model which fits a user's requirements. The study also contains the results of some experimental work carried out using the model, the first part of which tests• the model's capabilities by simulating a large operating system, the ICL George 3 system; the second part deals with general questions and some of the many proposals concerning multiprocessor systems.

Measurement of ocular component contributions to residual astigmatism in adult human eyes

The aim of this study was to determine whether an ophthalmophakometric technique could offer a feasible means of investigating ocular component contributions to residual astigmatism in human eyes. Current opinion was gathered on the prevalence, magnitude and source of residual astigmatism. It emerged that a comprehensive evaluation of the astigmatic contributions of the eye's internal ocular surfaces and their respective axial separations (effectivity) had not been carried out to date. An ophthalmophakometric technique was developed to measure astigmatism arising from the internal ocular components. Procedures included the measurement of refractive error (infra-red autorefractometry), anterior corneal surface power (computerised video keratography), axial distances (A-scan ultrasonography) and the powers of the posterior corneal surface in addition to both surfaces of the crystalline lens (multi-meridional still flash ophthalmophakometry). Computing schemes were developed to yield the required biometric data. These included (1) calculation of crystalline lens surface powers in the absence of Purkinje images arising from its anterior surface, (2) application of meridional analysis to derive spherocylindrical surface powers from notional powers calculated along four pre-selected meridians, (3) application of astigmatic decomposition and vergence analysis to calculate contributions to residual astigmatism of ocular components with obliquely related cylinder axes, (4) calculation of the effect of random experimental errors on the calculated ocular component data. A complete set of biometric measurements were taken from both eyes of 66 undergraduate students. Effectivity due to corneal thickness made the smallest cylinder power contribution (up to 0.25DC) to residual astigmatism followed by contributions of the anterior chamber depth (up to 0.50DC) and crystalline lens thickness (up to 1.00DC). In each case astigmatic contributions were predominantly direct. More astigmatism arose from the posterior corneal surface (up to 1.00DC) and both crystalline lens surfaces (up to 2.50DC). The astigmatic contributions of the posterior corneal and lens surfaces were found to be predominantly inverse whilst direct astigmatism arose from the anterior lens surface. Very similar results were found for right versus left eyes and males versus females. Repeatability was assessed on 20 individuals. The ophthalmophakometric method was found to be prone to considerable accumulated experimental errors. However, these errors are random in nature so that group averaged data were found to be reasonably repeatable. A further confirmatory study was carried out on 10 individuals which demonstrated that biometric measurements made with and without cycloplegia did not differ significantly.

Metrics and models to support the development of hybrid information systems

The research described here concerns the development of metrics and models to support the development of hybrid (conventional/knowledge based) integrated systems. The thesis argues from the point that, although it is well known that estimating the cost, duration and quality of information systems is a difficult task, it is far from clear what sorts of tools and techniques would adequately support a project manager in the estimation of these properties. A literature review shows that metrics (measurements) and estimating tools have been developed for conventional systems since the 1960s while there has been very little research on metrics for knowledge based systems (KBSs). Furthermore, although there are a number of theoretical problems with many of the `classic' metrics developed for conventional systems, it also appears that the tools which such metrics can be used to develop are not widely used by project managers. A survey was carried out of large UK companies which confirmed this continuing state of affairs. Before any useful tools could be developed, therefore, it was important to find out why project managers were not using these tools already. By characterising those companies that use software cost estimating (SCE) tools against those which could but do not, it was possible to recognise the involvement of the client/customer in the process of estimation. Pursuing this point, a model of the early estimating and planning stages (the EEPS model) was developed to test exactly where estimating takes place. The EEPS model suggests that estimating could take place either before a fully-developed plan has been produced, or while this plan is being produced. If it were the former, then SCE tools would be particularly useful since there is very little other data available from which to produce an estimate. A second survey, however, indicated that project managers see estimating as being essentially the latter at which point project management tools are available to support the process. It would seem, therefore, that SCE tools are not being used because project management tools are being used instead. The issue here is not with the method of developing an estimating model or tool, but; in the way in which "an estimate" is intimately tied to an understanding of what tasks are being planned. Current SCE tools are perceived by project managers as targetting the wrong point of estimation, A model (called TABATHA) is then presented which describes how an estimating tool based on an analysis of tasks would thus fit into the planning stage. The issue of whether metrics can be usefully developed for hybrid systems (which also contain KBS components) is tested by extending a number of "classic" program size and structure metrics to a KBS language, Prolog. Measurements of lines of code, Halstead's operators/operands, McCabe's cyclomatic complexity, Henry & Kafura's data flow fan-in/out and post-release reported errors were taken for a set of 80 commercially-developed LPA Prolog programs: By re~defining the metric counts for Prolog it was found that estimates of program size and error-proneness comparable to the best conventional studies are possible. This suggests that metrics can be usefully applied to KBS languages, such as Prolog and thus, the development of metncs and models to support the development of hybrid information systems is both feasible and useful.

In vivo measurement of regional variation in anterior scleral resistance to Schiotz indentation

Purpose: Recent studies indicate that ocular and scleral rigidity is pertinent to our understanding of glaucoma, age related macular degeneration and the development and pathogenesis of myopia. The principal method of measuring ocular rigidity is by extrapolation of data from corneal indentation tonometry (Ko) using Friedenwald’s transformation algorithms. Using scleral indentation (Schiotz tonometry) we assess whether regional variations in resistance to indentation occur in vivo across the human anterior globe directly, with reference to the deflection of Schiotz scale readings. Methods: Data were collected from both eyes of 26 normal young adult subjects with a range of refractive error (mean spherical equivalent ± S.D. of -1.77 D ± 3.28 D, range -10.56 to +4.38 D). Schiotz tonometry (5.5 g & 7.5 g) was performed on the cornea and four scleral quadrants; supero-temporal (ST) and -nasal (SN), infero-temporal (IT) and -nasal (IN) approximately 8 mm posterior to the limbus. Results: Values of Ko (mm3)-1 were consistent with those previously reported (mean 0.0101 ± 0.0082, range 0.0019–0.0304). In regards to the sclera, significant differences (p < 0.001) were found across quadrants with indentation readings for both loads between means for the cornea and ST; ST and SN; ST and IT, ST and IN. Mean (±S.D.) scale readings for 5.5 g were: cornea 5.93 ± 1.14, ST 8.05 ± 1.58, IT 7.03 ± 1.86, SN 6.25 ± 1.10, IN 6.02 ± 1.49; and 7.5 g: cornea 9.26 ± 1.27, ST 11.56 ± 1.65, IT 10.31 ± 1.74, SN 9.91 ± 1.20, IN 9.50 ± 1.56. Conclusions: Significant regional variation was found in the resistance of the anterior sclera to indentation produced by the Schiotz tonometer.

On a distinction between casual and formative variable models:theoretical issues and practical implications for organizational researchers

Formative measurement has seen increasing acceptance in organizational research since the turn of the 21st Century. However, in more recent times, a number of criticisms of the formative approach have appeared. Such work argues that formatively-measured constructs are empirically ambiguous and thus flawed in a theory-testing context. The aim of the present paper is to examine the underpinnings of formative measurement theory in light of theories of causality and ontology in measurement in general. In doing so, a thesis is advanced which draws a distinction between reflective, formative, and causal theories of latent variables. This distinction is shown to be advantageous in that it clarifies the ontological status of each type of latent variable, and thus provides advice on appropriate conceptualization and application. The distinction also reconciles in part both recent supportive and critical perspectives on formative measurement. In light of this, advice is given on how most appropriately to model formative composites in theory-testing applications, placing the onus on the researcher to make clear their conceptualization and operationalisation.

Time resolved bit error rate analysis of a fast switching tunable laser for use in optically switched networks

We investigate the use of different direct detection modulation formats in a wavelength switched optical network. We find the minimum time it takes a tunable sampled grating distributed Bragg reflector laser to recover after switching from one wavelength channel to another for different modulation formats. The recovery time is investigated utilizing a field programmable gate array which operates as a time resolved bit error rate detector. The detector offers 93 ps resolution operating at 10.7 Gb/s and allows for all the data received to contribute to the measurement, allowing low bit error rates to be measured at high speed. The recovery times for 10.7 Gb/s non-return-to-zero on–off keyed modulation, 10.7 Gb/s differentially phase shift keyed signal and 21.4 Gb/s differentially quadrature phase shift keyed formats can be as low as 4 ns, 7 ns and 40 ns, respectively. The time resolved phase noise associated with laser settling is simultaneously measured for 21.4 Gb/s differentially quadrature phase shift keyed data and it shows that the phase noise coupled with frequency error is the primary limitation on transmitting immediately after a laser switching event.

Measurement of hospital performance

The rationale for carrying out this research was to address the clear lack of knowledge surrounding the measurement of public hospital performance in Ireland. The objectives of this research were to develop a comprehensive model for measuring hospital performance and using this model to measure the performance of public acute hospitals in Ireland in 2007. Having assessed the advantages and disadvantages of various measurement models the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model was chosen for this research. DEA was initiated by Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes in 1978 and further developed by Fare et al. (1983) and Banker et al. (1984). The method used to choose relevant inputs and outputs to be included in the model followed that adopted by Casu et al. (2005) which included the use of focus groups. The main conclusions of the research are threefold. Firstly, it is clear that each stakeholder group has differing opinions on what constitutes good performance. It is therefore imperative that any performance measurement model would be designed within parameters that are clearly understood by any intended audience. Secondly, there is a lack of publicly available qualitative information in Ireland that inhibits detailed analysis of hospital performance. Thirdly, based on available qualitative and quantitative data the results indicated a high level of efficiency among the public acute hospitals in Ireland in their staffing and non pay costs, averaging 98.5%. As DEA scores are sensitive to the number of input and output variables as well as the size of the sample it should be borne in mind that a high level of efficiency could be as a result of using DEA with too many variables compared to the number of hospitals. No hospital was deemed to be scale efficient in any of the models even though the average scale efficiency for all of the hospitals was relatively high at 90.3%. Arising from this research the main recommendations would be that information on medical outcomes, survival rates and patient satisfaction should be made publicly available in Ireland; that despite a high average efficiency level that many individual hospitals need to focus on improving their technical and scale efficiencies, and that performance measurement models should be developed that would include more qualitative data.