A BAYESIAN SHRINKAGE MODEL FOR INCOMPLETE LONGITUDINAL BINARY DATA WITH APPLICATION TO THE BREAST CANCER PREVENTION TRIAL

We consider inference in randomized studies, in which repeatedly measured outcomes may be informatively missing due to drop out. In this setting, it is well known that full data estimands are not identified unless unverified assumptions are imposed. We assume a non-future dependence model for the drop-out mechanism and posit an exponential tilt model that links non-identifiable and identifiable distributions. This model is indexed by non-identified parameters, which are assumed to have an informative prior distribution, elicited from subject-matter experts. Under this model, full data estimands are shown to be expressed as functionals of the distribution of the observed data. To avoid the curse of dimensionality, we model the distribution of the observed data using a Bayesian shrinkage model. In a simulation study, we compare our approach to a fully parametric and a fully saturated model for the distribution of the observed data. Our methodology is motivated and applied to data from the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial.

Longitudinal data on telomere length in leukocytes from newborn baboons support a marked drop in stem cell turnover around 1 year of age

Stem cells of various tissues are typically defined as multipotent cells with 'self-renewal' properties. Despite the increasing interest in stem cells, surprisingly little is known about the number of times stem cells can or do divide over a lifetime. Based on telomere-length measurements of hematopoietic cells, we previously proposed that the self-renewal capacity of hematopoietic stem cells is limited by progressive telomere attrition and that such cells divide very rapidly during the first year of life. Recent studies of patients with aplastic anemia resulting from inherited mutations in telomerase genes support the notion that the replicative potential of hematopoietic stem cells is directly related to telomere length, which is indirectly related to telomerase levels. To revisit conclusions about stem cell turnover based on cross-sectional studies of telomere length, we performed a longitudinal study of telomere length in leukocytes from newborn baboons. All four individual animals studied showed a rapid decline in telomere length (approximately 2-3 kb) in granulocytes and lymphocytes in the first year after birth. After 50-70 weeks the telomere length appeared to stabilize in all cell types. These observations suggest that hematopoietic stem cells, after an initial phase of rapid expansion, switch at around 1 year of age to a different functional mode characterized by a markedly decreased turnover rate.

Identifying mechanisms of treatment effects and recovery in rehabilitation of schizophrenia: longitudinal analytic methods

The longitudinal dimension of schizophrenia and related severe mental illness is a key component of theoretical models of recovery. However, empirical longitudinal investigations have been underrepresented in the psychopathology of schizophrenia. Similarly, traditional approaches to longitudinal analysis of psychopathological data have had serious limitations. The utilization of modern longitudinal methods is necessary to capture the complexity of biopsychosocial models of treatment and recovery in schizophrenia. The present paper summarizes empirical data from traditional longitudinal research investigating recovery in symptoms, neurocognition, and social functioning. Studies conducted under treatment as usual conditions are compared to psychosocial intervention studies and potential treatment mechanisms of psychosocial interventions are discussed. Investigations of rehabilitation for schizophrenia using the longitudinal analytic strategies of growth curve and time series analysis are demonstrated. The respective advantages and disadvantages of these modern methods are highlighted. Their potential use for future research of treatment effects and recovery in schizophrenia is also discussed.

Persistent microalbuminuria in adolescents with type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus is associated to early rather than late puberty. Results of a prospective longitudinal study

Microalbuminuria is generally accepted to be highly predictive of overt diabetic nephropathy which is the leading cause of end-stage renal failure and, consequently, of death in patients with type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus (IDDM). Its early identification and therapy are exceedingly important. We studied prospectively the occurrence of microalbuminuria (MA) in relation to puberty and its pubertal stages in 164 children and adolescent patients (83 girls and 81 boys) with IDDM. Analysing 100 healthy subjects, normal values for albumin excretion (range: 0-10.1 micrograms/min/1.73 m2) according to sex and the different pubertal stages were defined. No significant difference between the groups were noted and, therefore, 20 micrograms/min per 1.73 m2 (3 SD above the mean) was generally defined as cutoff for MA. Of the patients with IDDM studied, 20% (20 females and 12 males) developed persistent MA (22.1-448.2 micrograms/min/1.73 m2) during the study period of 8 years. The first manifestation of persistent MA was in 69% (13 females and 9 males) during stages of early and midpuberty; and in 28% (6 females and 3 males) at a late pubertal stage or at the end of puberty. The only child who developed MA before the onset of puberty (range: 23.5-157.4 micrograms/min/1.73 m2) was found to have dystopic kidney. Therefore, all patients with IDDM should be screened for MA regardless of diabetes duration, sex and level of diabetes control beginning at the very first stage of puberty and neither earlier nor after puberty as suggested by the American Diabetes Association.

Stability of soft tissue profile after mandibular setback in sagittal split osteotomies: a longitudinal and long-term follow-up study

PURPOSE: The aim of the study was to conduct a long-term prospective follow-up on the stability of soft tissues after bilateral sagittal split osteotomy (BSSO) with rigid internal fixation to set back the mandible. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Seventeen consecutive patients (6 females, 11 males) were re-examined 12.7 years (T5) after surgery. The precedent follow-ups included: before surgery (T1), 5 days (T2) after surgery, 6.6 months (T3) after surgery, and 14.4 months after (T4) surgery. Lateral cephalograms were traced by hand, digitized, and evaluated with the Dentofacial Planner program (Dentofacial Software, Toronto, Canada). The x-axis for the system of coordinates ran through Sella (point 0) and the line NSL -7 degrees. RESULTS: The net effect of the soft tissue chin (soft tissue pogonion) was 79% of the setback at pogonion. At the lower lip (labrale inferior) it was 100% of the setback at lower incisor position. Point B' followed point B to 99%. Labrale inferior and menton' also showed a significant backward, as well as a downward, movement (T5 to T2). Gender correlated significantly (P = .004) with the anterior displacement of point B' and pogonion' (P = .012). The soft tissue relapse 12.7 years after BSSO setback surgery at point B' was 3% and 13% at pogonion'. CONCLUSION: Among the reasons for 3-dimensional long-term soft tissue changes of shape, the surgical technique, the normal process of human aging, the initial growth direction, and remodeling processes must be considered. Growth direction positively influenced the long-term outcome of setback surgery in female compared with male patients because further posterior movement of the mandibular soft tissue occurred.

Stability of the hard and soft tissue profile after mandibular advancement in sagittal split osteotomies: a longitudinal and long-term follow-up study

The aim of the study was to conduct a long-term follow-up investigation of the stability of hard and soft tissues after bilateral sagittal split osteotomy (BSSO) with rigid internal (RIF) fixation to advance the mandible. Sixteen consecutive patients (12 females and 4 males, mean age 21.4 years) were available for re-examination 12.7 years (T5) after surgery. The preceding follow-ups were before (T1), and 5 days (T2), 7.3 months (T3), and 13.9 months (T4) after surgery. Lateral cephalograms were traced by hand, digitized, and evaluated with the Dentofacial Planner program. The x-axis for the system of co-ordinates ran through sella (point zero) and the line NSL -7 degrees. Thus, the program determined the x- and y-values of each variable and the usual angles and distances. Statistical analysis was carried out using Wilcoxon's matched-pair signed-ranks test with Bonferroni adjustments. The relationships between the examined variables were analysed by Spearman rank correlation coefficients. The backward relapse at point B (T5) was 2.42 mm, or 50 per cent, and at pogonion 3.21 mm, or 60 per cent of the initial advancement. The mean net effect at T5 on the labial fold (soft tissue point B) was 94 per cent of the advancement at point B. For the soft tissue chin (soft tissue pogonion), it was 119 per cent of the advancement at pogonion. The net effect on the lower lip (labrale inferior) was 55 per cent of the advancement at incision inferior. The amount of the surgical advancement of the mandible was correlated with the long-term relapse in point B. Among possible reasons for this relapse are the initial soft tissue profile, the initial growth direction, and the remodelling processes of the hard tissue.

Stability of hard tissue profile after mandibular setback in sagittal split osteotomies: a longitudinal and long-term follow-up study

The aim of the study was to conduct a long-term follow-up on the stability of the hard tissues after bilateral sagittal split osteotomy (BSSO) with rigid internal fixation (RIF)to set back the mandible and to compare it with that of mandibular advancement performed by the same team of surgeons and with the same examination protocol. Seventeen consecutive patients (6 females and 11 males) could be re-examined 12.7 years (T5) after surgery. The previous examinations were before surgery (T1), 5 days (T2), and 6.6 (T3) and 14.4 (T4) months after surgery. Lateral cephalograms were traced by hand, digitized, and evaluated with the Dentofacial Planner software program. The x-axis for the system of co-ordinates ran through sella (point zero) and the line nasion-sella-line minus 7 degrees. The program determined the x- and y-values of each variable and the usual angles and distances. The effects of treatment were determined with Wilcoxon matched pairs, signed ranks test, with Bonferroni adjustment, and the relationship between variables with Spearman rank correlation coefficient. Relapse at point B was 0.94 mm or 15 per cent and at pogonion 1.46 mm or 21 per cent of the initial setback at T5. Relapse was mainly short-term (T4-T2), 13 per cent for point B and 17 per cent for pogonion. Gender correlated significantly with relapse (T5-T2) at point B (P = 0.002) and pogonion (P = 0.021), i.e. females in contrast to males showed further distalization of the mandible instead of relapse. No correlations were seen for age or the amount of surgical setback. The long-term results in mandibular setback patients were more stable when compared with the mandibular advancement patients examined previously. The initial soft tissue profile, the initial growth direction, and the remodelling processes of the hard tissues must be considered as reasons for long-term relapse. Growth direction positively influenced the long-term results in females: further distalization of the mandible occurred.

Longitudinal evaluation of cartilage composition of matrix-associated autologous chondrocyte transplants with 3-T delayed gadolinium-enhanced MRI of cartilage

OBJECTIVE: The purposes of this study were to use delayed gadolinium-enhanced MRI of cartilage (dGEMRIC) to evaluate the zonal distribution of glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) in normal cartilage and repair tissue and to use 3-T MRI to monitor the GAG content in matrix-associated autologous chondrocyte transplants. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Fifteen patients who underwent matrix-associated autologous chondrocyte transplantation in the knee joint underwent MRI at baseline and 3-T follow-up MRI 1 year later. Total and zonal changes in longitudinal relaxivity (deltaR1) and relative deltaR1 were calculated for repair tissue and normal hyaline cartilage and compared by use of analysis of variance. RESULTS: There was a significant difference between the mean deltaR1 of repair tissue and that of reference cartilage at baseline and follow-up (p < 0.001). There was a significant increase in deltaR1 value and a decrease in GAG content from the deep layer to the superficial layer in the reference cartilage and almost no variation and significantly higher values for the repair tissue at both examinations. At 1-year follow-up imaging, there was a 22.7% decrease in deltaR1 value in the deep zone of the transplant. CONCLUSION: T1 mapping with dGEMRIC at 3 T shows the zonal structure of normal hyaline cartilage, highly reduced zonal variations in repair tissue, and a tendency toward an increase in global and zonal GAG content 1 year after transplantation.