Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

Roche tomography of cataclysmic variables - VII. The long-term magnetic activity of AE Aqr

We present a long-term study of the secondary star in the cataclysmic variable AE Aqr, using Roche tomography to indirectly image starspots on the stellar surface spanning 8 years of observations. The seven maps show an abundance of spot features at both high and low latitudes. We find that all maps have at least one large high-latitude spot region, and we discuss its complex evolution between maps, as well as its compatibility with current dynamo theories. Furthermore, we see the apparent growth in fractional spot coverage, fs, around 45° latitude over the duration of observations, with a persistently high fs near latitudes of 20°. These bands of spots may form as part of a magnetic activity cycle, with magnetic flux tubes emerging at different latitudes, similar to the `butterfly' diagram for the Sun. We discuss the nature of flux tube emergence in close binaries, as well as the activity of AE Aqr in the context of other stars.

Anatomising Irish Rebellion: the Cromwellian Delinquency Commissions, the Books of Discrimination and the 1641 Depositions

The recent digitisation of the 1641 depositions has opened up that large and controversial collection of manuscripts to renewed study. The significance of a substantial section of that archive generated in 1653-4 by the work of the Cromwellian delinquency commissions has hitherto been poorly understood. This article sheds new light on the workings of the commissions and on the ways in which the 'delinquency depositions' that they collected helped to shape the implementation of the Cromwellian and Restoration land settlements in Ireland. It also compares the Irish delinquency proceedings to the approach adopted by the Long Parliament in its dealings with royalists in England in the 1640s. In analysing the actual content of the depositions, the article focuses particular attention on County Wexford. The surviving delinquency depositions enable in-depth exploration of many facets of the 1641 rebellion and its aftermath in that region.

Herd management and livestock productivity in the Altai region of Western Mongolia

This thesis analyses the influence of qualitative and quantitative herbage production on seasonal rangelands, and of herd and pasture use strategies on feed intake, body mass development and reproductive performance of sheep and goats in the Altai mountain region of Bulgan county (soum) in Khovd province (aimag). This westernmost county of Mongolia is characterized by a very poor road network and thus very difficult access to regional and national markets. The thesis explores in this localized context the current rural development, the economic settings and political measures that affect the traditional extensive livestock husbandry system and its importance for rural livelihoods. Livestock management practices still follow the traditional transhumant mode, fully relying on natural pasture. This renders animal feeding very vulnerable to the highly variable climatic conditions which is one of many reasons for gradually declining quantity and quality of pasture vegetation. Small ruminants, and especially goats, are the main important species securing economic viability of their owners’ livelihood, and they are well adapted to the harsh continental climate and the present low input management practices. It is likely that small ruminants will keep their vital role for the rural community in the future, since the weak local infrastructure and slow market developments currently do not allow many income diversification options. Since the profitability of a single animal is low, animal numbers tend to increase, whereas herd management does not change. Possibilities to improve the current livestock management and thus herders’ livelihoods in an environmentally, economically and socially sustainable manner are simulated through bio-economic modelling and the implications are discussed at the regional and national scale. To increase the welfare of the local population, a substantial infrastructural and market development is needed, which needs to be accompanied by suitable pasture management schemes and policies

GPS inferred velocity and strain rate fields in eastern Canada

La vallée du fleuve Saint-Laurent, dans l’est du Canada, est l’une des régions sismiques les plus actives dans l’est de l’Amérique du Nord et est caractérisée par de nombreux tremblements de terre intraplaques. Après la rotation rigide de la plaque tectonique, l’ajustement isostatique glaciaire est de loin la plus grande source de signal géophysique dans l’est du Canada. Les déformations et les vitesses de déformation de la croûte terrestre de cette région ont été étudiées en utilisant plus de 14 ans d’observations (9 ans en moyenne) de 112 stations GPS fonctionnant en continu. Le champ de vitesse a été obtenu à partir de séries temporelles de coordonnées GPS quotidiennes nettoyées en appliquant un modèle combiné utilisant une pondération par moindres carrés. Les vitesses ont été estimées avec des modèles de bruit qui incluent les corrélations temporelles des séries temporelles des coordonnées tridimensionnelles. Le champ de vitesse horizontale montre la rotation antihoraire de la plaque nord-américaine avec une vitesse moyenne de 16,8±0,7 mm/an dans un modèle sans rotation nette (no-net-rotation) par rapport à l’ITRF2008. Le champ de vitesse verticale confirme un soulèvement dû à l’ajustement isostatique glaciaire partout dans l’est du Canada avec un taux maximal de 13,7±1,2 mm/an et un affaissement vers le sud, principalement au nord des États-Unis, avec un taux typique de −1 à −2 mm/an et un taux minimum de −2,7±1,4 mm/an. Le comportement du bruit des séries temporelles des coordonnées GPS tridimensionnelles a été analysé en utilisant une analyse spectrale et la méthode du maximum de vraisemblance pour tester cinq modèles de bruit: loi de puissance; bruit blanc; bruit blanc et bruit de scintillation; bruit blanc et marche aléatoire; bruit blanc, bruit de scintillation et marche aléatoire. Les résultats montrent que la combinaison bruit blanc et bruit de scintillation est le meilleur modèle pour décrire la partie stochastique des séries temporelles. Les amplitudes de tous les modèles de bruit sont plus faibles dans la direction nord et plus grandes dans la direction verticale. Les amplitudes du bruit blanc sont à peu près égales à travers la zone d’étude et sont donc surpassées, dans toutes les directions, par le bruit de scintillation et de marche aléatoire. Le modèle de bruit de scintillation augmente l’incertitude des vitesses estimées par un facteur de 5 à 38 par rapport au modèle de bruit blanc. Les vitesses estimées de tous les modèles de bruit sont statistiquement cohérentes. Les paramètres estimés du pôle eulérien de rotation pour cette région sont légèrement, mais significativement, différents de la rotation globale de la plaque nord-américaine. Cette différence reflète potentiellement les contraintes locales dans cette région sismique et les contraintes causées par la différence des vitesses intraplaques entre les deux rives du fleuve Saint-Laurent. La déformation de la croûte terrestre de la région a été étudiée en utilisant la méthode de collocation par moindres carrés. Les vitesses horizontales interpolées montrent un mouvement cohérent spatialement: soit un mouvement radial vers l’extérieur pour les centres de soulèvement maximal au nord et un mouvement radial vers l’intérieur pour les centres d’affaissement maximal au sud, avec une vitesse typique de 1 à 1,6±0,4 mm/an. Cependant, ce modèle devient plus complexe près des marges des anciennes zones glaciaires. Basées selon leurs directions, les vitesses horizontales intraplaques peuvent être divisées en trois zones distinctes. Cela confirme les conclusions d’autres chercheurs sur l’existence de trois dômes de glace dans la région d’étude avant le dernier maximum glaciaire. Une corrélation spatiale est observée entre les zones de vitesses horizontales intraplaques de magnitude plus élevée et les zones sismiques le long du fleuve Saint-Laurent. Les vitesses verticales ont ensuite été interpolées pour modéliser la déformation verticale. Le modèle montre un taux de soulèvement maximal de 15,6 mm/an au sud-est de la baie d’Hudson et un taux d’affaissement typique de 1 à 2 mm/an au sud, principalement dans le nord des États-Unis. Le long du fleuve Saint-Laurent, les mouvements horizontaux et verticaux sont cohérents spatialement. Il y a un déplacement vers le sud-est d’une magnitude d’environ 1,3 mm/an et un soulèvement moyen de 3,1 mm/an par rapport à la plaque l’Amérique du Nord. Le taux de déformation verticale est d’environ 2,4 fois plus grand que le taux de déformation horizontale intraplaque. Les résultats de l’analyse de déformation montrent l’état actuel de déformation dans l’est du Canada sous la forme d’une expansion dans la partie nord (la zone se soulève) et d’une compression dans la partie sud (la zone s’affaisse). Les taux de rotation sont en moyenne de 0,011°/Ma. Nous avons observé une compression NNO-SSE avec un taux de 3.6 à 8.1 nstrain/an dans la zone sismique du Bas-Saint-Laurent. Dans la zone sismique de Charlevoix, une expansion avec un taux de 3,0 à 7,1 nstrain/an est orientée ENE-OSO. Dans la zone sismique de l’Ouest du Québec, la déformation a un mécanisme de cisaillement avec un taux de compression de 1,0 à 5,1 nstrain/an et un taux d’expansion de 1.6 à 4.1 nstrain/an. Ces mesures sont conformes, au premier ordre, avec les modèles d’ajustement isostatique glaciaire et avec la contrainte de compression horizontale maximale du projet World Stress Map, obtenue à partir de la théorie des mécanismes focaux (focal mechanism method).

Impact of Rapid Transit on the Residential Market in Hudson County, New Jersey

The New York Metropolitan region is one of the most populous urban agglomerations in the world, and the single largest in North America.[1] It is also one of the most prominent economic centers, with New York City at the epicenter of its growth. With the entire region growing rapidly over the last decade, it is essential to analyze the socio-economic changes in order to understand the impact it has on commercial real estate. With its focus on housing rentals, this study aims to highlight housing costs as a function of rapid transit over time.

Assessing the Knowledge and Attitude Among Somali Men In King County Towards Female Genital Mutilation

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Italian Ragweed Pollen Inventory

This study provides the first spatially detailed and complete inventory of Ambrosia pollen sources in Italy – the third largest centre of ragweed in Europe. The inventory relies on a well tested top-down approach that combines local knowledge, detailed land cover, pollen observations and a digital elevation model that assumes permanent ragweed populations mainly grow below 745m. The pollen data were obtained from 92 volumetric pollen traps located throughout Italy during 2004-2013. Land cover is derived from Corine Land cover information with 100m resolution. The digital elevation model is based on the NASA shuttle radar mission with 90m resolution. The inventory is produced using a combination of ArcGIS and Python for automation and validated using cross-correlation and has a final resolution of 5km x 5km. The method includes a harmonization of the inventory with other European inventories for the Pannonian Plain, France and Austria in order to provide a coherent picture of all major ragweed sources. The results show that the mean annual pollen index varies from 0 in South Italy to 6779 in the Po Valley. The results also show that very large pollen indexes are observed in the Milan region, but this region has smaller amounts of ragweed habitats compared to other parts of the Po Valley and known ragweed areas in France and the Pannonian Plain. A significant decrease in Ambrosia pollen concentrations was recorded in 2013 by pollen monitoring stations located in the Po Valley, particularly in the Northwest of Milan. This was the same year as the appearance of the Ophraella communa leaf beetle in Northern Italy. These results suggest that ragweed habitats near to the Milan region have very high densities of Ambrosia plants compared to other known ragweed habitats in Europe. The Milan region therefore appears to contain habitats with the largest ragweed infestation in Europe, but a smaller amount of habitats is a likely cause the pollen index to be lower compared to central parts of the Pannonian Plain. A low number of densely packed habitats may have increased the impact of the Ophraella beetle and might account for the documented decrease in airborne Ambrosia pollen levels, an event that cannot be explained by meteorology alone. Further investigations that model atmospheric pollen before and after the appearance of the beetle in this part of Northern Italy are needed to assess the influence of the beetle on airborne Ambrosia pollen concentrations. Future work will focus on short distance transport episodes for stations located in the Po Valley, and long distance transport events for stations in Central Italy that exhibit peaks in daily airborne Ambrosia pollen levels.

Long-Term Care Facility Disaster Preparedness, June 19, 2014

Long-term care facilities have very difficult decisions to make in terms of evacuating residents/tenants or providing “shelter in place”. Long-term care facilities need to be actively involved with the Emergency Management Teams at the county level and work with them to develop effective disaster preparedness plans. When it comes to disaster preparedness it is important to write a plan, exercise the plan, revise the plan, re-exercise the plan and identify the best practices.

GOSPEL SINGING IN THE VALLEY: AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE HYMNODY AND CHORAL SINGING OF THE LISU ON THE CHINA-BURMA/MYANMAR BORDER

This dissertation is an ethnomusicological study of contemporary musical practices of the Christian Lisu in Nujiang Prefecture in northwest Yunnan on the China-Myanmar border. Among all the changes that the Nujiang Lisu have experienced since the twentieth century, the spread of Protestant Christianity throughout Nujiang’s mountainous villages has existed for the longest time and had one of the greatest effects. Combining historical investigation and ethnographic description, this study uses the lens of music to examine the impact of this social change on the Lisu living in this impoverished frontier region. The Lisu characteristics have never been vital in the music written by the Christian Lisu in Nujiang. Compared with the practices described in other ethnomusicological writings on Christian music around the world that I have read, this absence of incorporation of indigenous musical elements is unusual. There are probably many other cases similar to that of the Lisu, but few ethnomusicologists have paid attention to them. I aim to elucidate this particular scenario of Lisu Christian music in relation to three social and cultural forces: the missionary legacy of conventions; the government’s identification of the Lisu as a minority nationality and its national policies toward them since the 1950s; and the transnational religious exchange between the Christian Lisu in China and Myanmar since the late 1980s. My examination focuses on two genres which the Lisu use to express their Christian beliefs today: ddoqmuq mutgguat, derived from American northern urban gospel songs, the basis of the Lisu choral singing; and mutgguat ssat, influenced by the Christian pop of the Burmese Lisu, with instrumental accompaniment and daibbit dance and preferred by the young people. Besides studying these two genres in the religious context, I also juxtapose them with other musical traditions in the overall Nujiang music soundscape and look at their role in local social interactions such as those between sacred and secular, and majority and minority. This dissertation demonstrates that the collective performances of shared repertoires have not only created a sense of affinity for the Nujiang Christian Lisu but also have reinforced the formation of Lisu transnational religious networks.

Mafic and felsic plutonism in the Elvas region (SW Iberia, Portugal): two distinct Nd isotope sources and geodynamics

The occurrence of mafic (mainly gabbros and diorites) and felsic (syenites and granites) rocks, in close spatial association, in the Elvas region, at the northern part of the Ossa-Morena Zone, could be interpreted as a single bimodal (alkaline) plutonic complex. However, in spite of scarce isotopic (Sm-Nd) data, the co-magmatic origin of both rock groups (mafic and felsic) has already been questioned [1]. Based on the mineral chemistry of primary clinopyroxenes (Di–Hd, %En: 45.5 – 27.2) and representative whole-rock analyses, gabbros and diorites of the Elvas massif show a transitional character between alkaline and non-alkaline fields and wide compositions: SiO2 (42.47 – 58.00 wt%); TiO2 (0.24 – 1.68 wt%); Y/Nb (4.0 – 10.7); Th (0.1 – 6.8 ppm); Zr (18.6 – 576.9 ppm). The felsic group is composed by highly differentiated rocks which correspond to distinct levels of silica saturation and alkalinity. Peralkaline syenites usually present sodic (riebeckite) and sodic-calcic (aegirine-augite, ferrowinchite) inosilicates and reveal quite variable compositions: SiO2 (57.50 – 72.07 wt%); TiO2 (0.10 – 1.45 wt%); Th (1.7 – 67.0 ppm); Zr (133.0 – 4800.0 ppm). The alkaline granites show hedenbergite as the characteristic inosilicate, presenting relatively common compositions: SiO2 (61.85 – 78.06 wt%); TiO2 (0.21 – 0.58 wt%); Th (11.8 – 38.4 ppm); Zr (317.3 – 1234.6 ppm) [2]. Recent Sm-Nd isotopic results, on a total of 18 whole-rock samples (6 mafites and 12 felsites), allow new and more consistent interpretation concerning the petrogenesis of these plutonic rocks. Assuming an age of 490 Ma [3], the felsic rocks provide (0.6 < Nd490 < 4.3), similar to other contemporary (per)alkaline rocks of this region [4], reflecting magmatic extractions from time-integrated depleted mantle sources followed by variable and incomplete mixing (and/or AFC-type) processes with enriched, probably crustal sources. This alkaline/peralkaline magmatism is thought to represent the main regional record of the rifting event which presumably led to the opening of the Rheic Ocean. On the other hand, the mafic plutonic rocks of the Elvas massif cannot represent the magmatic precursors of these syenites and granites as they show completely distinct Nd isotopic ratios (3.7 < Nd490 < 1.2) indicating important contribution of long-term enriched (crustal) sources. Instead, considering the age and the Nd isotopic signature of other mafic plutonic unit emplaced nearby (the Campo Maior massif: ca. 370 Ma; 6.0 < Nd370 < 5.2) [5], and recalculating the isotopic ratios of the Elvas massif for the same age (4.3 < Nd370 < 1.6), it is plausible to consider that these plutons (Campo Maior and Elvas) can be coeval and representative of the Variscan magmatism in this region. In such hypothesis, the differences between these isotopic values could be explained, on a time-integrated basis, either by magmatic sources for the Elvas massif less enriched in LREE than the sources involved in the Campo Maior massif, or, if both plutonites share similar depleted mantle sources, by magmatic differentiation paths considerably affected by crustal contamination processes, which reached higher degrees in the Campo Maior massif.

Da casta ao terroir

Pela importância atual – e crescente – que o vinho tem na economia portuguesa, pela margem existente para a apresentação de temas de reflexão que acrescentem valor ao posicionamento do setor, pela experiência pessoal e paixão pela área, decidi elaborar a minha dissertação numa temática enquadrável no setor do vinho, em particular no vinho Alvarinho proveniente do terroir que representa a Denominação de Origem Vinho Verde Sub-região de Monção e Melgaço. A estrutura deste estudo assenta em duas dimensões: a primeira, numa perspetiva local, assente na recente decisão de alargar a Denominação Origem Vinho Verde Alvarinho a todas as sub-regiões que integram a Região dos Vinhos Verdes, com efeitos em 2021. Pelo que se procurará mostrar a importância da relação desta casta com o seu terroir de origem e, perante esta interligação, qual o fator mais importante a utilizar na comunicação do vinho. A segunda prende-se com a dimensão internacional que se pretende para o Alvarinho no mercado dos grandes vinhos brancos mundiais, onde encontramos castas brancas de renome como a Chardonnay e a Riesling, face a esta exposição e à crescente aposta na casta a nível mundial, como agir perante a potencial ameaça que representa a entrada dos países do “Novo Mundo”. Posto isto, é neste contexto que se coloca a questão que está na génese desta dissertação: de que forma o terroir contribui como fator de diferenciação e de vantagem competitiva do Alvarinho produzido na Denominação de Origem Vinho Verde Sub-região Monção e Melgaço no mercado dos grandes vinhos brancos mundiais? Cuja resposta poderá em grande parte estar, no meu entendimento, na análise de um caso de sucesso, que nesta dissertação é representada pelo trabalho realizado em torno do Rieseling produzido no Vale de Mosel e que contribuiu para que este tivesse conquistado a sua reputação.

L’effet à long terme de la vie reproductive sur la mortalité des femmes en milieu rural sénégalais

Population ageing in sub-Saharan Africa raises new concerns about mature adult mortality patterns and differentials, but little is known in this region due to the lack of data. This study examines the long term effects of reproductive history on female mortality in three local rural areas in Senegal where population have been followed up for decades. We study mortality differentials according to the past reproductive history of females aged between 50 and 70 in the period 1985-2011. We find that age at first and last deliveries impact mortality levels, as does the number of children ever born. Looking at the sex of the childrenand their vital status at age 5, we note that the number of boys is negatively associated with mortality rates, by a larger extent than the number of girls. In virilocal societies, social factors probably have a strong impact. This result opens future research avenues on the issue of the care of the elderly.

The Southeast Indian Ridge between 88°E and 118°E: Variations in crustal accretion at constant spreading rate

The temperature of the mantle and the rate of melt production are parameters which play important roles in controlling the style of crustal accretion along mid-ocean ridges. To investigate the variability in crustal accretion that develops in response to variations in mantle temperature, we have conducted a geophysical investigation of the Southeast Indian Ridge (SEIR) between the Amsterdam hotspot and the Australian-Antarctic Discordance (88 degrees E-118 degrees E). The spreading center deepens by 2100 m from west to east within the study area. Despite a uniform, intermediate spreading rate (69-75 mm yr-l), the SEIR exhibits the range in axial morphology displayed by the East Pacific Rise and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) and usually associated with variations in spreading rate. The spreading center is characterized by an axial high west of 102 degrees 45'E, whereas an axial valley is prevalent east of this longitude. Both the deepening of the ridge axis and the general evolution of axial morphology from an axial high to a rift valley are not uniform. A region of intermediate morphology separates axial highs and MAR-like rift valleys. Local transitions in axial morphology occur in three areas along the ridge axis. The increase in axial depth toward the Australian-Antarctic Discordance may be explained by the thinning of the oceanic crust by similar to 4 km and the change in axial topography. The long-wavelength changes observed along the SEIR can be attributed to a gradient in mantle temperature between regions influenced by the Amsterdam and Kerguelen hot spots and the Australian-Antarctic Discordance. However, local processes, perhaps associated with an heterogeneous mantle or along-axis asthenospheric flow, may give rise to local transitions in axial topography and depth anomalies.

Determination of a Mean Solar Radiation Year and of a Typical Meteorological Year for the region of Funchal in the Madeira Island

This paper presents the determination of a mean solar radiation year and of a typical meteorological year for the region of Funchal in the Madeira Island, Portugal. The data set includes hourly mean and extreme values for air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and hourly mean values for solar global and diffuse radiation for the period 2004-2014, with maximum data coverage of 99.7%. The determination of the mean solar radiation year consisted, in a first step, in the average of all values for each pair hour/day and, in a second step, in the application of a five days centred moving average of hourly values. The determination of the typical meteorological year was based on Finkelstein-Schafer statistics, which allows to obtain a complete year of real measurements through the selection and combination of typical months, preserving the long term averages while still allowing the analysis of short term events. The typical meteorological year validation was carried out through the comparison of the monthly averages for the typical year with the long term monthly averages. The values obtained were very close, so that the typical meteorological year can accurately represent the long term data series. The typical meteorological year can be used in the simulation of renewable energy systems, namely solar energy systems, and for predicting the energy performance of buildings.