Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Multiple instance dictionary learning for activity representation

This paper presents an effective feature representation method in the context of activity recognition. Efficient and effective feature representation plays a crucial role not only in activity recognition, but also in a wide range of applications such as motion analysis, tracking, 3D scene understanding etc. In the context of activity recognition, local features are increasingly popular for representing videos because of their simplicity and efficiency. While they achieve state-of-the-art performance with low computational requirements, their performance is still limited for real world applications due to a lack of contextual information and models not being tailored to specific activities. We propose a new activity representation framework to address the shortcomings of the popular, but simple bag-of-words approach. In our framework, first multiple instance SVM (mi-SVM) is used to identify positive features for each action category and the k-means algorithm is used to generate a codebook. Then locality-constrained linear coding is used to encode the features into the generated codebook, followed by spatio-temporal pyramid pooling to convey the spatio-temporal statistics. Finally, an SVM is used to classify the videos. Experiments carried out on two popular datasets with varying complexity demonstrate significant performance improvement over the base-line bag-of-feature method.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Understanding local processes: Contemplating franchisation

Increasing, there is growing acknowledgement of the importance of franchising within all modern global economies. Despite this, little is understood with regards the actual impact of franchising on local economies. This research aims to reframe the contribution of franchising by considering the process of franchisation. This study employed a mixed-method approach, utilizing critical realism to facilitate an outcomes-based explanation of firm survival. The focus of the study was upon generative mechanisms that were assumed to give rise to particular events from which (pizza) firm survival was enhanced vis-à-vis all other community members. A database of 2440 firms (or in excess of 21,000 company years) combined with archival records, interviews and the researcher’s observations provided the researcher with access to the nature of interaction occurring between firms. It was found that the survival of local firms was influenced positively by the day-to-day actions of franchise operators. However, it is argued that to understand how any such advantage my fall to local independent firms, we need too better appreciate the multitude of local processes related to such industries. This research re-examines several ecological concepts with the view of enabling a clearer investigation of underlying local processes. It also represents an authentic autecological approach to the study of firms.

Computational Techniques for Haplotype Inference and for Local Alignment Significance

This thesis which consists of an introduction and four peer-reviewed original publications studies the problems of haplotype inference (haplotyping) and local alignment significance. The problems studied here belong to the broad area of bioinformatics and computational biology. The presented solutions are computationally fast and accurate, which makes them practical in high-throughput sequence data analysis. Haplotype inference is a computational problem where the goal is to estimate haplotypes from a sample of genotypes as accurately as possible. This problem is important as the direct measurement of haplotypes is difficult, whereas the genotypes are easier to quantify. Haplotypes are the key-players when studying for example the genetic causes of diseases. In this thesis, three methods are presented for the haplotype inference problem referred to as HaploParser, HIT, and BACH. HaploParser is based on a combinatorial mosaic model and hierarchical parsing that together mimic recombinations and point-mutations in a biologically plausible way. In this mosaic model, the current population is assumed to be evolved from a small founder population. Thus, the haplotypes of the current population are recombinations of the (implicit) founder haplotypes with some point--mutations. HIT (Haplotype Inference Technique) uses a hidden Markov model for haplotypes and efficient algorithms are presented to learn this model from genotype data. The model structure of HIT is analogous to the mosaic model of HaploParser with founder haplotypes. Therefore, it can be seen as a probabilistic model of recombinations and point-mutations. BACH (Bayesian Context-based Haplotyping) utilizes a context tree weighting algorithm to efficiently sum over all variable-length Markov chains to evaluate the posterior probability of a haplotype configuration. Algorithms are presented that find haplotype configurations with high posterior probability. BACH is the most accurate method presented in this thesis and has comparable performance to the best available software for haplotype inference. Local alignment significance is a computational problem where one is interested in whether the local similarities in two sequences are due to the fact that the sequences are related or just by chance. Similarity of sequences is measured by their best local alignment score and from that, a p-value is computed. This p-value is the probability of picking two sequences from the null model that have as good or better best local alignment score. Local alignment significance is used routinely for example in homology searches. In this thesis, a general framework is sketched that allows one to compute a tight upper bound for the p-value of a local pairwise alignment score. Unlike the previous methods, the presented framework is not affeced by so-called edge-effects and can handle gaps (deletions and insertions) without troublesome sampling and curve fitting.

Efficient search for statistically significant dependency rules in binary data

Analyzing statistical dependencies is a fundamental problem in all empirical science. Dependencies help us understand causes and effects, create new scientific theories, and invent cures to problems. Nowadays, large amounts of data is available, but efficient computational tools for analyzing the data are missing. In this research, we develop efficient algorithms for a commonly occurring search problem - searching for the statistically most significant dependency rules in binary data. We consider dependency rules of the form X->A or X->not A, where X is a set of positive-valued attributes and A is a single attribute. Such rules describe which factors either increase or decrease the probability of the consequent A. A classical example are genetic and environmental factors, which can either cause or prevent a disease. The emphasis in this research is that the discovered dependencies should be genuine - i.e. they should also hold in future data. This is an important distinction from the traditional association rules, which - in spite of their name and a similar appearance to dependency rules - do not necessarily represent statistical dependencies at all or represent only spurious connections, which occur by chance. Therefore, the principal objective is to search for the rules with statistical significance measures. Another important objective is to search for only non-redundant rules, which express the real causes of dependence, without any occasional extra factors. The extra factors do not add any new information on the dependence, but can only blur it and make it less accurate in future data. The problem is computationally very demanding, because the number of all possible rules increases exponentially with the number of attributes. In addition, neither the statistical dependency nor the statistical significance are monotonic properties, which means that the traditional pruning techniques do not work. As a solution, we first derive the mathematical basis for pruning the search space with any well-behaving statistical significance measures. The mathematical theory is complemented by a new algorithmic invention, which enables an efficient search without any heuristic restrictions. The resulting algorithm can be used to search for both positive and negative dependencies with any commonly used statistical measures, like Fisher's exact test, the chi-squared measure, mutual information, and z scores. According to our experiments, the algorithm is well-scalable, especially with Fisher's exact test. It can easily handle even the densest data sets with 10000-20000 attributes. Still, the results are globally optimal, which is a remarkable improvement over the existing solutions. In practice, this means that the user does not have to worry whether the dependencies hold in future data or if the data still contains better, but undiscovered dependencies.

Optimisation Problems in Wireless Sensor Networks : Local Algorithms and Local Graphs

This thesis studies optimisation problems related to modern large-scale distributed systems, such as wireless sensor networks and wireless ad-hoc networks. The concrete tasks that we use as motivating examples are the following: (i) maximising the lifetime of a battery-powered wireless sensor network, (ii) maximising the capacity of a wireless communication network, and (iii) minimising the number of sensors in a surveillance application. A sensor node consumes energy both when it is transmitting or forwarding data, and when it is performing measurements. Hence task (i), lifetime maximisation, can be approached from two different perspectives. First, we can seek for optimal data flows that make the most out of the energy resources available in the network; such optimisation problems are examples of so-called max-min linear programs. Second, we can conserve energy by putting redundant sensors into sleep mode; we arrive at the sleep scheduling problem, in which the objective is to find an optimal schedule that determines when each sensor node is asleep and when it is awake. In a wireless network simultaneous radio transmissions may interfere with each other. Task (ii), capacity maximisation, therefore gives rise to another scheduling problem, the activity scheduling problem, in which the objective is to find a minimum-length conflict-free schedule that satisfies the data transmission requirements of all wireless communication links. Task (iii), minimising the number of sensors, is related to the classical graph problem of finding a minimum dominating set. However, if we are not only interested in detecting an intruder but also locating the intruder, it is not sufficient to solve the dominating set problem; formulations such as minimum-size identifying codes and locating dominating codes are more appropriate. This thesis presents approximation algorithms for each of these optimisation problems, i.e., for max-min linear programs, sleep scheduling, activity scheduling, identifying codes, and locating dominating codes. Two complementary approaches are taken. The main focus is on local algorithms, which are constant-time distributed algorithms. The contributions include local approximation algorithms for max-min linear programs, sleep scheduling, and activity scheduling. In the case of max-min linear programs, tight upper and lower bounds are proved for the best possible approximation ratio that can be achieved by any local algorithm. The second approach is the study of centralised polynomial-time algorithms in local graphs these are geometric graphs whose structure exhibits spatial locality. Among other contributions, it is shown that while identifying codes and locating dominating codes are hard to approximate in general graphs, they admit a polynomial-time approximation scheme in local graphs.

The new binary pulsar and the observation of gravitational spin precession

The possibility of observing gravitational spin precession due to spin-orbit coupling in a binary pulsar system is considered. An analysis is presented which can aid in delineating the relevant physical effects from pulse-structure data. In this analysis, it is assumed that the pulsar radiation emanates from a cone whose axis is tilted with respect to the axis of rotation. It is found that the time-averaged pulse width and polarization sweep vary periodically with time and that this variation has a periodicity of the order of the spin-precession frequency averaged over a complete revolution. It is concluded that for an orbital period of about 180 years, it suffices to measure polarization data with an accuracy of a few parts in 100 over a period of six months to a year in order to uncover the effects of spin precession. The consistency of the analysis is checked, and the calculations are applied to a recently discovered binary pulsar.

Quantization noise in binary holograms

The signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio in the reconstructed image from a binary hologram has been quantitatively related to the amplitude and phase quantization levels. The S/N ratio increases monotonically with increasing number of quantization levels. This observation is further supported by experimental results.

Critical Exponent β and Rectilinear Diameter of the Binary-Liquid System Carbon Disulfide + Nitromethane

The system CS2 + CH3NO2 shows β=0.315±0.004 over 10-6<ε=|T-Tc| / Tc<2�10-1 with no indication of a classical value ½ even far away from Tc. The diameter shows a curvature and is of the form �c+b ε+fε7 / 8exp(-gεh).

Using Mathematical Morphology for Geometric Music Retrieval

The usual task in music information retrieval (MIR) is to find occurrences of a monophonic query pattern within a music database, which can contain both monophonic and polyphonic content. The so-called query-by-humming systems are a famous instance of content-based MIR. In such a system, the user's hummed query is converted into symbolic form to perform search operations in a similarly encoded database. The symbolic representation (e.g., textual, MIDI or vector data) is typically a quantized and simplified version of the sampled audio data, yielding to faster search algorithms and space requirements that can be met in real-life situations. In this thesis, we investigate geometric approaches to MIR. We first study some musicological properties often needed in MIR algorithms, and then give a literature review on traditional (e.g., string-matching-based) MIR algorithms and novel techniques based on geometry. We also introduce some concepts from digital image processing, namely the mathematical morphology, which we will use to develop and implement four algorithms for geometric music retrieval. The symbolic representation in the case of our algorithms is a binary 2-D image. We use various morphological pre- and post-processing operations on the query and the database images to perform template matching / pattern recognition for the images. The algorithms are basically extensions to classic image correlation and hit-or-miss transformation techniques used widely in template matching applications. They aim to be a future extension to the retrieval engine of C-BRAHMS, which is a research project of the Department of Computer Science at University of Helsinki.

Critical point phenomena in the electrical resistivity of binary liquid systems: Cs2 + CH3CN and CS2 + CH3NO2

Electrical resistance measurements are reported on the binary liquid mixtures CS2 + CH3CN and CS2 + CH3NO2 with special reference to the critical region. Impurity conduction seems to be the dominant mechanism for charge transport. For the liquid mixture filled at the critical composition, the resistance of the system aboveT c follows the relationR=R c−A(T−T c) b withb=0·6±0·1. BelowT c the conductivities of the two phases obey a relation σ2−σ1=B(T c−T)β with β=0·34±0·02, the exponent of the transport coefficient being the same as the exponent of the order parameter, an equilibrium property.