Individual Decision-Making and Inflation Persistence

The traditional task of a central bank is to preserve price stability and, in doing so, not to impair the real economy more than necessary. To meet this challenge, it is of great relevance whether inflation is only driven by inflation expectations and the current output gap or whether it is, in addition, influenced by past inflation. In the former case, as described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the central bank can immediately and simultaneously achieve price stability and equilibrium output, the so-called ‘divine coincidence’ (Blanchard and Galí 2007). In the latter case, the achievement of price stability is costly in terms of output and will be pursued over several periods. Similarly, it is important to distinguish this latter case, which describes ‘intrinsic’ inflation persistence, from that of ‘extrinsic’ inflation persistence, where the sluggishness of inflation is not a ‘structural’ feature of the economy but merely ‘inherited’ from the sluggishness of the other driving forces, inflation expectations and output. ‘Extrinsic’ inflation persistence is usually considered to be the less challenging case, as policy-makers are supposed to fight against the persistence in the driving forces, especially to reduce the stickiness of inflation expectations by a credible monetary policy, in order to reestablish the ‘divine coincidence’. The scope of this dissertation is to contribute to the vast literature and ongoing discussion on inflation persistence: Chapter 1 describes the policy consequences of inflation persistence and summarizes the empirical and theoretical literature. Chapter 2 compares two models of staggered price setting, one with a fixed two-period duration and the other with a stochastic duration of prices. I show that in an economy with a timeless optimizing central bank the model with the two-period alternating price-setting (for most parameter values) leads to more persistent inflation than the model with stochastic price duration. This result amends earlier work by Kiley (2002) who found that the model with stochastic price duration generates more persistent inflation in response to an exogenous monetary shock. Chapter 3 extends the two-period alternating price-setting model to the case of 3- and 4-period price durations. This results in a more complex Phillips curve with a negative impact of past inflation on current inflation. As simulations show, this multi-period Phillips curve generates a too low degree of autocorrelation and too early turnings points of inflation and is outperformed by a simple Hybrid Phillips curve. Chapter 4 starts from the critique of Driscoll and Holden (2003) on the relative real-wage model of Fuhrer and Moore (1995). While taking the critique seriously that Fuhrer and Moore’s model will collapse to a much simpler one without intrinsic inflation persistence if one takes their arguments literally, I extend the model by a term for inequality aversion. This model extension is not only in line with experimental evidence but results in a Hybrid Phillips curve with inflation persistence that is observably equivalent to that presented by Fuhrer and Moore (1995). In chapter 5, I present a model that especially allows to study the relationship between fairness attitudes and time preference (impatience). In the model, two individuals take decisions in two subsequent periods. In period 1, both individuals are endowed with resources and are able to donate a share of their resources to the other individual. In period 2, the two individuals might join in a common production after having bargained on the split of its output. The size of the production output depends on the relative share of resources at the end of period 1 as the human capital of the individuals, which is built by means of their resources, cannot fully be substituted one against each other. Therefore, it might be rational for a well-endowed individual in period 1 to act in a seemingly ‘fair’ manner and to donate own resources to its poorer counterpart. This decision also depends on the individuals’ impatience which is induced by the small but positive probability that production is not possible in period 2. As a general result, the individuals in the model economy are more likely to behave in a ‘fair’ manner, i.e., to donate resources to the other individual, the lower their own impatience and the higher the productivity of the other individual. As the (seemingly) ‘fair’ behavior is modelled as an endogenous outcome and as it is related to the aspect of time preference, the presented framework might help to further integrate behavioral economics and macroeconomics.

Improving Clustering Algorithms for Image Segmentation using Contour and Region Information

In image segmentation, clustering algorithms are very popular because they are intuitive and, some of them, easy to implement. For instance, the k-means is one of the most used in the literature, and many authors successfully compare their new proposal with the results achieved by the k-means. However, it is well known that clustering image segmentation has many problems. For instance, the number of regions of the image has to be known a priori, as well as different initial seed placement (initial clusters) could produce different segmentation results. Most of these algorithms could be slightly improved by considering the coordinates of the image as features in the clustering process (to take spatial region information into account). In this paper we propose a significant improvement of clustering algorithms for image segmentation. The method is qualitatively and quantitative evaluated over a set of synthetic and real images, and compared with classical clustering approaches. Results demonstrate the validity of this new approach

Dissolution of Dynamic Electronic Institutions, a first approach: Relevant factors and causes

In the context of the digital business ecosystems, small organizations cooperate between them in order to achieve common goals or offer new services for expanding their markets. There are different approaches for these cooperation models such as virtual enterprises, virtual organizations or dynamic electronic institutions which in their lifecycle have in common a dissolution phase. However this phase has not been studied deeply in the current literature and it lacks formalization. In this paper a first approach for achieving and managing the dissolution phase is proposed, as well as a CBR process in order to support it in a multi-agent system

Relationship between siblings and psychological adjustment in adolescents:

This study evaluated the effect of parent-child relationship quality (acceptance and differential treatment) over dimensions of the quality of sibling relationships (warmth and conflict) and psychological adjustment in 69 adolescent sibling dyads. The effects of parent-child relationships were evaluated both at the individual and dyadic levels. In older siblings, the father-child relationship had a significant effect on both their perception of warmth in the sibling relationship and psychological adjustment. In younger siblings, there was a significant dyadic effect of the older sibling’s perceived acceptance by mother on their perception of warmth in the sibling relationship. Results are analyzed based on the literature and questions for future research are proposed.

Neighborhood characteristics and the spatial concentration of crime: Evidence for Bogotá

Using a unique neighborhood crime dataset for Bogotá in 2011, this study uses a spatial econometric approach and examines the role of socioeconomic and agglomeration variables in explaining the variance of crime. It uses two different types of crime, violent crime represented in homicides and property crime represented in residential burglaries. These two types of crime are then measured in non-standard crime statistics that are created as the area incidence for each crime in the neighborhood. The existence of crime hotspots in Bogotá has been shown in most of the literature, and using these non-standard crime statistics at this neighborhood level some hotspots arise again, thus validating the use of a spatial approach for these new crime statistics. The final specification includes socioeconomic, agglomeration, land-use and visual aspect variables that are then included in a SARAR model an estimated by the procedure devised by Kelejian and Prucha (2009). The resulting coefficients and marginal effects show the relevance of these crime hotspots which is similar with most previous studies. However, socioeconomic variables are significant and show the importance of age, and education. Agglomeration variables are significant and thus more densely populated areas are correlated with more crime. Interestingly, both types of crimes do not have the same significant covariates. Education and young male population have a different sign for homicide and residential burglaries. Inequality matters for homicides while higher real estate valuation matters for residential burglaries. Finally, density impacts positively both crimes.

Cytomegalovirus: Educational outcomes and implications for newborn screening

The focus of this study was to review existing literature and analyze a survey of professional opinion regarding how children with hearing loss caused by congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) function audiologically and educationally. This study proposes a benefit for adding CMV screening to the battery of tests included in the newborn screening protocol to improve educational outcomes of children deafened from CMV.

Mortality of Migratory Birds from Marine Commercial Fisheries and Offshore Oil and Gas Production in Canada

There is an imminent need for conservation and best-practice management efforts in marine ecosystems where global-scale declines in the biodiversity and biomass of large vertebrate predators are increasing and marine communities are being altered. We examine two marine-based industries that incidentally take migratory birds in Canada: (1) commercial fisheries, through bycatch, and (2) offshore oil and gas exploration, development, and production. We summarize information from the scientific literature and technical reports and also present new information from recently analyzed data to assess the magnitude and scope of mortality. Fisheries bycatch was responsible for the highest levels of incidental take of migratory bird species; estimated combined take in the longline, gillnet, and bottom otter trawl fisheries within the Atlantic, including the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and Pacific regions was 2679 to 45,586 birds per year. For the offshore oil and gas sector, mortality estimates ranged from 188 to 4494 deaths per year due to the discharge of produced waters resulting in oil sheens and collisions with platforms and vessels; however these estimates for the oil and gas sector are based on many untested assumptions. In spite of the uncertainties, we feel levels of mortality from these two industries are unlikely to affect the marine bird community in Canada, but some effects on local populations from bycatch are likely. Further research and monitoring will be required to: (1) better estimate fisheries-related mortality for vulnerable species and populations that may be impacted by local fisheries, (2) determine the effects of oil sheens from produced waters, and attraction to platforms and associated mortality from collisions, sheens, and flaring, so that better estimates of mortality from the offshore oil and gas sector can be obtained, and (3) determine impacts associated with accidental spills, which are not included in our current assessment. With a better understanding of the direct mortality of marine birds from industry, appropriate mitigation and management actions can be implemented. Cooperation from industry for data collection, research to fill knowledge gaps, and implementation of mitigation approaches will all be needed to conserve marine birds in Canada.

An integrated model of soil-canopy spectral radiances, photosynthesis, fluorescence, temperature and energy balance

This paper presents the model SCOPE (Soil Canopy Observation, Photochemistry and Energy fluxes), which is a vertical (1-D) integrated radiative transfer and energy balance model. The model links visible to thermal infrared radiance spectra (0.4 to 50 μm) as observed above the canopy to the fluxes of water, heat and carbon dioxide, as a function of vegetation structure, and the vertical profiles of temperature. Output of the model is the spectrum of outgoing radiation in the viewing direction and the turbulent heat fluxes, photosynthesis and chlorophyll fluorescence. A special routine is dedicated to the calculation of photosynthesis rate and chlorophyll fluorescence at the leaf level as a function of net radiation and leaf temperature. The fluorescence contributions from individual leaves are integrated over the canopy layer to calculate top-of-canopy fluorescence. The calculation of radiative transfer and the energy balance is fully integrated, allowing for feedback between leaf temperatures, leaf chlorophyll fluorescence and radiative fluxes. Leaf temperatures are calculated on the basis of energy balance closure. Model simulations were evaluated against observations reported in the literature and against data collected during field campaigns. These evaluations showed that SCOPE is able to reproduce realistic radiance spectra, directional radiance and energy balance fluxes. The model may be applied for the design of algorithms for the retrieval of evapotranspiration from optical and thermal earth observation data, for validation of existing methods to monitor vegetation functioning, to help interpret canopy fluorescence measurements, and to study the relationships between synoptic observations with diurnally integrated quantities. The model has been implemented in Matlab and has a modular design, thus allowing for great flexibility and scalability.

Women and writing c1340-c1650; the domestication of print culture

The transition from medieval manuscript to early printed book is currently a mmajor topic of academic interest, but has received little attention in relation to women's involvement. The essays in this volume both add female names to the list of those authors who created English Literature, and examine women's responses to older texts. Taking its cue from the advances made by recent work on manuscript culture and book history, this volume also includes studies of material evidence. These reveal women's participation in the making of books, and also the traces they left behind when handling individual volumes. Finally, studies of women's roles in relation to apparently ephemeral texts, such as letters, pamphlets and almanacs, challenge traditional divisions between public and private spheres and between manuscript and print.

Burnt offerings and harpies at Nasidienus’ dinner-party (Horace, Satires 2.8)

Horace's last Satire describes a disastrous dinner party hosted by the gourmet Nasidienus, which is ruined by a collapsing tapestry. The food served afterwards is presented in a dismembered state. This chapter argues that several elements of the scene recall the greedy Harpies of Apollonius' Argonautica, and that Horace's friend Virgil shows the influence of this Satire in his own Harpy-scene in Aeneid 3. It also argues that the confusion in the middle of the dinner causes the food cooking in the kitchen to be neglected and burned. This explains the state of the subsequent courses, which Nasidienus has salvaged from a separate disaster backstage.

Small-scale mining, poverty and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa: An overview

Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM)-low tech, labour intensive mineral processing and excavation activity-is an economic mainstay in rural sub-Saharan Africa, providing direct employment to over two million people. This paper introduces a special issue on 'Small-scale mining, poverty and development in sub-Saharan Africa'. It focuses on the core conceptual issues covered in the literature, and the policy implications of the findings reported in the papers in this special issue. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Culture and food: a model of yoghurt consumption in the EU

The completion of the Single European Market was expected to create a large market that would enable firms to capture economies of scale that would in turn result in lower prices to European consumers. These benefits are only likely to be realised if consumers in the various countries of the EU wish to consume the same products and respond to similar marketing strategies (with respect to promotion, distribution etc). This study examines, through a model of yoghurt consumption, whether cultural differences continue to determine food-related behaviour in the EU. The model is derived from the marketing literature and views the consumption decision as the outcome of a multi-stage process in which yoghurt knowledge, attitudes to different yoghurt attributes (such as bio-bifidus, low-fat, organic) and overall attitude towards yoghurt as a product all feed into the frequency with which yoghurt is consumed at breakfast, as a snack and as a dessert. The model uses data collected from a consumer survey in I I European countries and is estimated using probit and ordinal probit methods. The results suggest that important cultural differences continue to determine food-related behaviour in the I I countries of the study. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An illustration of the modelling of cost and efficacy data from a clinical trial

Health care providers, purchasers and policy makers need to make informed decisions regarding the provision of cost-effective care. When a new health care intervention is to be compared with the current standard, an economic evaluation alongside an evaluation of health benefits provides useful information for the decision making process. We consider the information on cost-effectiveness which arises from an individual clinical trial comparing the two interventions. Recent methods for conducting a cost-effectiveness analysis for a clinical trial have focused on the net benefit parameter. The net benefit parameter, a function of costs and health benefits, is positive if the new intervention is cost-effective compared with the standard. In this paper we describe frequentist and Bayesian approaches to cost-effectiveness analysis which have been suggested in the literature and apply them to data from a clinical trial comparing laparoscopic surgery with open mesh surgery for the repair of inguinal hernias. We extend the Bayesian model to allow the total cost to be divided into a number of different components. The advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches are discussed. In January 2001, NICE issued guidance on the type of surgery to be used for inguinal hernia repair. We discuss our example in the light of this information. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dilettantes, discipline and discourse: requirements management for construction

Requirements management (RM), as practised in the aerospace and defence sectors, attracts interest from construction researchers in response to longstanding problems of project definition. Doubts are expressed whether RM offers a new discipline for construction practitioners or whether it repeats previous exhortations to adopt a more disciplined way of working. Whilst systems engineering has an established track record of addressing complex technical problems, its extension to socially complex problems has been challenged. The dominant storyline of RM is one of procedural rationality and RM is commonly presented as a means of controlling dilettante behaviour. Interviews with RM practitioners suggest a considerable gulf between the dominant storyline in the literature and how practitioners operate in practice. The paper challenges construction researchers interested in RM to reflect more upon the theoretical debates that underpin current equivalent practices in construction and the disparity between espoused and enacted practice.

Exploring teachers' knowledge of children's literature

In the context of the current debate about teaching reading, research to ascertain primary teachers' personal and professional reading practices was undertaken. The study explored teachers' reading habits and preferences, investigated their knowledge of children's literature, and documented their reported use of such texts and involvement with library services. Questionnaire responses were gathered from 1200 teachers. The data were analysed and connections made between the teachers' own reading habits and preferences, their knowledge of children's literature, their accessing practices and pedagogic use of literature in school. This paper reports on part of the dataset and focuses on teachers' knowledge of children's literature; it reveals that primary professionals lean on a narrow repertoire of authors, poets and picture fiction creators. It also discusses teachers' personal reading preferences and considers divergences and connections between these as well as the implications of the teachers' limited repertoires on the reading development of young learners.