Inclusion of nonlinear demand-supply relationships within large-scale partial equilibrium linear programming models

This paper presents a new method for the inclusion of nonlinear demand and supply relationships within a linear programming model. An existing method for this purpose is described first and its shortcomings are pointed out before showing how the new approach overcomes those difficulties and how it provides a more accurate and 'smooth' (rather than a kinked) approximation of the nonlinear functions as well as dealing with equilibrium under perfect competition instead of handling just the monopolistic situation. The workings of the proposed method are illustrated by extending a previously available sectoral model for the UK agriculture.

Analysis of feeding strategies for small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico using linear programming

A limitation of small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico is that traditional feeding strategies are less effective when nutrient availability varies through the year. In the present work, a linear programming (LP) model that maximizes income over feed cost was developed, and used to evaluate two strategies: the traditional one used by the small-scale dairy producers in Michoacan State, based on fresh lucerne, maize grain and maize straw; and an alternative strategy proposed by the LIP model, based on ryegrass hay, maize silage and maize grain. Biological and economic efficiency for both strategies were evaluated. Results obtained with the traditional strategy agree with previously published work. The alternative strategy did not improve upon the performance of the traditional strategy because of low metabolizable protein content of the maize silage considered by the model. However, the Study recommends improvement of forage quality to increase the efficiency of small-scale dairy systems, rather than looking for concentrate supplementation.

Forage production and nutrient availability in small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico using linear programming and partial budgeting

Small-scale dairy systems play an important role in the Mexican dairy sector and farm planning activities related to resource allocation have a significant impact on the profitability of such enterprises. Linear programming is a technique widely used for planning and ration formulation, and partial budgeting is a technique for assessing the impact of changes on the profitability of an enterprise. This study used both methods to optimise land use for forage production and nutrient availability, and to evaluate the economic impact of such changes in small-scale Mexican dairy systems. The model showed satisfactory performance when optimal solutions were compared with the traditional strategy. The strategy using fresh ryegrass, maize silage and oat hay, and the strategy using a combination of alfalfa hay, maize silage, fresh ryegrass and oat hay appeared attractive options for providing a better nutrient supply and maintaining a higher stocking rate throughout the year than the traditional strategy.

A Bayesian approach for dose-escalation in a phase I clinical trial incorporating pharmacodynamic endpoints

Bayesian decision procedures have already been proposed for and implemented in Phase I dose-escalation studies in healthy volunteers. The procedures have been based on pharmacokinetic responses reflecting the concentration of the drug in blood plasma and are conducted to learn about the dose-response relationship while avoiding excessive concentrations. However, in many dose-escalation studies, pharmacodynamic endpoints such as heart rate or blood pressure are observed, and it is these that should be used to control dose-escalation. These endpoints introduce additional complexity into the modeling of the problem relative to pharmacokinetic responses. Firstly, there are responses available following placebo administrations. Secondly, the pharmacodynamic responses are related directly to measurable plasma concentrations, which in turn are related to dose. Motivated by experience of data from a real study conducted in a conventional manner, this paper presents and evaluates a Bayesian procedure devised for the simultaneous monitoring of pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic responses. Account is also taken of the incidence of adverse events. Following logarithmic transformations, a linear model is used to relate dose to the pharmacokinetic endpoint and a quadratic model to relate the latter to the pharmacodynamic endpoint. A logistic model is used to relate the pharmacokinetic endpoint to the risk of an adverse event.

Linkage disequilibrium assessment via log-linear modeling of SNP haplotype frequencies

Analyses of high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, such as genetic mapping and linkage disequilibrium (LD) studies, require phase-known haplotypes to allow for the correlation between tightly linked loci. However, current SNP genotyping technology cannot determine phase, which must be inferred statistically. In this paper, we present a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for population haplotype frequency estimation, particulary in the context of LD assessment. The novel feature of the method is the incorporation of a log-linear prior model for population haplotype frequencies. We present simulations to suggest that 1) the log-linear prior model is more appropriate than the standard coalescent process in the presence of recombination (>0.02cM between adjacent loci), and 2) there is substantial inflation in measures of LD obtained by a "two-stage" approach to the analysis by treating the "best" haplotype configuration as correct, without regard to uncertainty in the recombination process. Genet Epidemiol 25:106-114, 2003. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Declining survival rates in a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel: evidence for non-linear density dependence and environmental stochasticity

1. We studied a reintroduced population of the formerly critically endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus Temmink from its inception in 1987 until 2002, by which time the population had attained carrying capacity for the study area. Post-1994 the population received minimal management other than the provision of nestboxes. 2. We analysed data collected on survival (1987-2002) using program MARK to explore the influence of density-dependent and independent processes on survival over the course of the population's development. 3.We found evidence for non-linear, threshold density dependence in juvenile survival rates. Juvenile survival was also strongly influenced by climate, with the temporal distribution of rainfall during the cyclone season being the most influential climatic variable. Adult survival remained constant throughout. 4. Our most parsimonious capture-mark-recapture statistical model, which was constrained by density and climate, explained 75.4% of the temporal variation exhibited in juvenile survival rates over the course of the population's development. 5. This study is an example of how data collected as part of a threatened species recovery programme can be used to explore the role and functional form of natural population regulatory processes. With the improvements in conservation management techniques and the resulting success stories, formerly threatened species offer unique opportunities to further our understanding of the fundamental principles of population ecology.

A mechanistic study of the low pressure pyrolysis of linear siloxanes

Matrix isolation IR spectroscopy has been used to study the vacuum pyrolysis of 1,1,3,3-tetramethyldisiloxane (L1), 1,1,3,3,5,5-hexamethyltrisiloxane (L2) and 3H,5H-octamethyltetrasiloxane (L3) at ca. 1000 K in a flow reactor at low pressures. The hydrocarbons CH3, CH4, C2H2, C2H4, and C2H6 were observed as prominent pyrolysis products in all three systems, and amongst the weaker features are bands arising from the methylsilanes Me2SiH2 (for L1 and L2) and Me3SiH (for L3). The fundamental of SiO was also observed very weakly. By use of quantum chemical calculations combined with earlier kinetic models, mechanisms have been proposed involving the intermediacy of silanones Me2Si = O and MeSiH = O. Model calculations on the decomposition pathways of H3SiOSiH3 and H3SiOSiH2OSiH3 show that silanone elimination is favoured over silylene extrusion.

Alternative syntheses of linear polyurethanes using masked isocyanate monomers

A range of linear polyurethanes featuring aliphatic, aromatic and ether residues have been prepared by co-polymerisation of novel 'masked' isocyanate A(2)-type monomers and diols. The reactive isocyanate monomers were generated in situ via the triphenylphosphine mediated decomposition of the heterocyclic disulfide, 1,2,4-dithiazolidine-3,5-dione. Two different synthetic approaches were examined and assessed for the construction of the novel A(2)-type monomers, which involved either coupling two 1,2,4-dithiazolidine-3,5-diones together through a spacer group or construction of 1,2,4-dithiazolidine-3,5-diones directly from diamines. The resulting polyurethanes were purified via solvent extraction and analysed using GPC, NMR and IR spectroscopic analyses. Molecular weight data were obtained and compared from both GPC and H-1 NMR (via end-group analysis) spectroscopic analysis. The thermal properties of the polyurethanes were determined using DSC and their solubility in common aprotic organic solvents was also assessed and related to their structural composition. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

13C-2H correlation NMR spectroscopy studies of the in vivo transformations of natural products from Artemisia annua

13C-2H correlation NMR spectroscopy (13C-2H COSY) permits the identification of 13C and 2H nuclei which are connected to one another by a single chemical bond via the sizeable 1JCD coupling constant. The practical development of this technique is described using a 13C-2H COSY pulse sequence which is derived from the classical 13C-1H correlation experiment. An example is given of the application of 13C-2H COSY to the study of the biogenesis of natural products from the anti-malarial plant Artemisia annua, using a doubly-labelled precursor molecule. Although the biogenesis of artemisinin, the anti-malarial principle from this species, has been extensively studied over the past twenty years there is still no consensus as to the true biosynthetic route to this important natural product – indeed, some published experimental results are directly contradictory. One possible reason for this confusion may be the ease with which some of the metabolites from A. annua undergo spontaneous autoxidation, as exemplified by our recent in vitro studies of the spontaneous autoxidation of dihydroartemisinic acid, and the application of 13C-2H COSY to this biosynthetic problem has been important in helping to mitigate against such processes. In this in vivo application of 13C-2H COSY, [15-13C2H3]-dihydroartemisinic acid (the doubly-labelled analogue of the natural product from this species which was obtained through synthesis) was fed to A. annua plants and was shown to be converted into several natural products which have been described previously, including artemisinin. It is proposed that all of these transformations occurred via a tertiary hydroperoxide intermediate, which is derived from dihyroartemisinic acid. This intermediate was observed directly in this feeding experiment by the 13C-2H COSY technique; its observation by more traditional procedures (e.g., chromatographic separation, followed by spectroscopic analysis of the purified product) would have been difficult owing to the instability of the hydroperoxide group (as had been established previously by our in vitro studies of the spontaneous autoxidation of dihydroartemisinic acid). This same hydroperoxide has been reported as the initial product of the spontaneous autoxidation of dihydroartemisinic acid in our previous in vitro studies. Its observation in this feeding experiment by the 13C-2H COSY technique, a procedure which requires the minimum of sample manipulation in order to achieve a reliable identification of metabolites (based on both 13C and 2H chemical shifts at the 15-position), provides the best possible evidence for its status as a genuine biosynthetic intermediate, rather than merely as an artifact of the experimental procedure.

In vivo transformations of dihydroartemisinic acid in Artemisia annua plants

[15-(CH3)-C-13-H-2]-dihydroartemisinic acid (2a) and [15-(CH3)-H-2]-dihydroartemisinic acid (2b) have been fed via the root to intact Artemisia annua plants and their transformations studied in vivo by one-dimensional H-2 NMR spectroscopy and two-dimensional, C-13-H-2 correlation NMR spectroscopy (C-13-(2) H COSY). Labelled dihydroartemisinic acid was transformed into 16 12-carboxy-amorphane and cadinane sesquiterpenes within a few days in the aerial parts of A. annua, although transformations in the root were much slower and more limited. Fifteen of these 16 metabolites have been reported previously as natural products from A. annua. Evidence is presented that the first step in the transformation of dihydroartemisinic acid in vivo is the formation of allylic hydroperoxides by the reaction of molecular oxygen with the Delta(4,5)-double bond in this compound. The origin of all 16 secondary metabolites might then be explained by the known further reactions of such hydroperoxides. The qualitative pattern for the transformations of dihydroartemisinic acid in vivo was essentially unaltered when a comparison was made between plants, which had been kept alive and plants which were allowed to die after feeding of the labelled precursor. This, coupled with the observation that the pattern of transformations of 2 in vivo demonstrated very close parallels with the spontaneous autoxidation chemistry for 2, which we have recently demonstrated in vitro, has lead us to conclude that the main 'metabolic route' for dihydroartemisinic acid in A. annua involves its spontaneous autoxidation and the subsequent spontaneous reactions of allylic hydroperoxides which are derived from 2. There may be no need to invoke the participation of enzymes in any of the later biogenetic steps leading to all 16 of the labelled 11,13-dihydro-amorphane sesquiterpenes which are found in A. annua as natural products. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In vivo transformations of artemisinic acid in Artemisia annua plants

Artemisinic acid labeled with both C-13 and H-2 at the 15-position has been fed to intact plants of Artemisia annua via the cut stem, and its in vivo transformations studied by 1D- and 2D-NMR spectroscopy. Seven labeled metabolites have been isolated, all of which are known as natural products from this species. The transformations of artemisinic acid-as observed both for a group of plants, which was kept alive by hydroponic administration of water and for a group, which was allowed to die by desiccation-closely paralleled those, which have been recently described for its 11,13-dihydro analog, dihydroartemisinic acid. It seems likely therefore that similar mechanisms, involving spontaneous autoxidation of the Delta(4,5) double bond in both artemisinic acid and dihydroartemisinic acid and subsequent rearrangements of the resultant allylic hydroperoxides, may be involved in the biological transformations, which are undergone by both compounds. All of the sesquiterpene metabolites, which were obtained from in vivo transformations of artemisinic acid retained their unsaturation at the 11,13-position, and there was no evidence for conversion into any 11,13-dihydro metabolite, including artemisinin, the antimalarial drug, which is produced by A. annua. This observation led to the proposal of a unified biosynthetic scheme, which accounts for the biogenesis of many of the amorphane and cadinane sesquiterpenes that have been isolated as natural products from A. annua. In this scheme, there is a bifurcation in the biosynthetic pathway starting from amorpha-4,11-diene leading to either artemisinic acid or dihydroartemisinic acid; these two committed precursors are then, respectively, the parents for the two large families of highly oxygenated 11,13-dehydro and 11,13-dihydro sesquiterpene metabolites, which are known from this species. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In vivo transformations of dihydro-epi-deoxyarteannuin B in Artemisia annua plants

[15-(CH3)-C-13-H-2]-dihydro-epi-deoxyarteannuin B (4a) has been fed to intact Artemisia annua plants via the root and three labeled metabolites (17a-19a) have been identified by 1D- and 2D-NMR spectroscopies. The in vivo transformations of 4a in A. annua are proposed to involve enzymatically-mediated processes in addition to possible spontaneous autoxidation. In the hypothetical spontaneous autoxidation pathway, the tri-substituted double bond in 4a appears to have undergone 'ene-type' reaction with oxygen to form an allylic hydroperoxide, which subsequently rearranges to the allylic hydroxyl group in the metabolite 3 alpha-hydroxy-dihydro-epi-deoxyarteannuin B (17a). In the enzymatically-mediated pathways, compound 17a has then been converted to its acetyl derivative, 3 alpha-acetoxy-dihydro-epi-deoxyarteannuin B (18a), while oxidation of 4a at the 'unactivated' 9-position has yielded 9 beta-hydroxy-dihydro-epi-deoxyarteannuin B (19a). Although all of the natural products artemisinin ( 1), arteannuin K ( 7), arteannuin L ( 8), and arteannuin M ( 9) have been suggested previously as hypothetical metabolites from dihydro-epi-deoxyarteannuin B in A. annua, none were isolated in labeled form in this study. It is argued that the nature of the transformations undergone by compound 4a are more consistent with a degradative metabolism, designed to eliminate this compound from the plant, rather than with a role as a late precursor in the biosynthesis of artemisinin or other natural products from A. annua. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.